Here is a great article that details some of the points I made last year when many of you wanted to use a high draft pick on a wide receiver and then supported the trade for Brandon Marshall.
http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3677_A_CHFF_theory_elevated_to_Man_Law.html
It is Man Law, gentlemen!! It is foolish to invest a high draft pick and a bunch of money into a position that makes such a small impact on your team and is completely dependent upon everyone around them.
There are some of you still hung up with the idea that "oh, we absolutely have to get that deep threat!"
No, we don't absolutely have to get that deep threat. What we absolutely have to get is better, more consistent quarterback play, much better offensive line play, a much better running game, and much better special teams play. You fix that, and the rest will take care of itself. It won't matter who you have at wide receiver.
How much of an impact did Brandon Marshall make? He had a nice season, but Miami scored almost 100 more points in the previous year when they didn't have him when they could actually run the ball a little.
Here's more:
http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3714_Draft_Primer:_those_shiny_wide_receivers.html
BTW, I really like Greg Salas as a receiver prospect. If we could get him in the 5th or 6th round, we might just have the guy that will end up being the most productive wide receiver in this draft.
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/P...t/Draft_2011_WR Draft history_3-17-11_1.0.htm
How many of you knew that in the past ten years, the top two rated receivers in the draft have actually become the best two receivers out of the respective drafts ZERO times. ZERO!! Only a few times has the top rated guy actually been the best receiver.
Wide receivers are fools gold. Their play is directly contingent upon the play of the quarterback and the offensive line blocking for that quarterback, and their play overall makes very little impact on the team. There is so much evidence that proves it that it isn't even worth arguing any longer.
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I think you have to use some relative perspective..Is jerry rice, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Michael Irvin worth their first round status to their teams, I would say a resounding yes, no?..If your a team that has its QB yet has a void at receiver, do you let an AG green go by?...Iam just asking first to see how far down the board your talking here?
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I like Salas, too, but we need another possession receiver like Cromartie needs more kids.
MikeHoncho, MarinePhinFan, GMJohnson and 1 other person like this. -
I agree in principal, you spend the big bucks on the premium positions, QB, LT, CB, DE/OLB. But I disagree w/ the idea that its unwise for us to pursue a deep threat. I'm not asking gor Sidney Rice for Julio Jones, just a guy who can stretch the field and create space for Marshall. I think we can all agree that we shouldn't be paying Marshall 50 million to be a decoy so that we cant feed our studs, Hartline & Bess.
Ludacris likes this. -
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Here's the key with the Jets. First, they get consistent quarterback play and don't ask their young quarterback to do too much. Second, they have an outstanding offensive line that protects their quarterback, does well at the POA for their power running game, and blocks decently at the second level. Third, they have a strong running game that does well on first down. Fourth, they have a strong defense that keeps other teams off the score board and also gives its offense good field position. Fifth, they can flip the field with their special teams. If they lose Brad Smith as a return guy, it will have much more of an effect on their team than if they lose either Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes. Their impact on the game and team is nearly meaningless.
If you want a speed receiver, get one that can return kicks and punts. He will have much more of an impact as a return specialist than he will as a wide receiver. Just don't draft him before the third round. -
ToddsPhins likes this.
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I said the same thing last year, Javier arenas and Dexter Mccluster were the players I was after in my mock, unfortunately they both went 1 round earlier than I had expected...
I think you have to look hard at JJernigan, Young, and Little with your 3rd round pick. -
I can agree that adding a flashy WR doesn't make a ton of sense if you don't have an established QB. I think a lot of us made the mistake of thinking Chad Henne could be that guy quicker sooner than later after his '09 campaign.
And the article ignores examples of great WRs helping teams. Yeah, the Pats did well without Randy Moss. But how much did he help them in 2007? Someone want to crunch the difference in offensive production for them in '06 - '07? -
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You have to ask yourself what position would have the biggest impact on "our" team in this draft. Would it be Quarterback? Since Henne is still a big question mark. Would it be Offensive Line? Since our line is still a big question mark at several positions. Is it a speedy Wide Receiver to compliment B. Marshall? There's still a question mark at Wide Receiver, even though Brandon Marshall was the Dolphin's biggest investment last season. Or is it Running Back? Considering we have nothing but question marks at that position, and we are losing both of our aged starters, and had such a poor running game last year.
The Defense seems to be very close to being a very good Defense, but the Offense seems to have more questions than answers, especially with a new untested Offensive Coordinator. -
MarinePhinFan likes this.
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Agreed that the Pats were / are *******s. That's why it was so great to see them fail in the only game that really mattered for them in '07 and struggle in the playoffs ever since. Karma is a *****. -
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The Patriots were the #1 scoring offense in the NFL this past season without Moss. They didn't score as much as they did in 07, but they also controlled the ball a lot better. The problem with having Randy Moss on your team is that you are forced to throw the ball deep a lot, and usually into coverage. That style of play is going to put a lot of pressure on your defense.
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ToddsPhins likes this.
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I'm still hung up on it though OL is the bigger need. Having a QB that is efficient and uses 5+ receivers a game is great but those receivers must be good in different aspects of the passing game versus good defenses to be successful. If the receivers are too similar in what they do then a good defense has an excellent chance of controlling the game. I think the Dolphins receivers all fall into the same category. If you believe Marshall's will regain his alleged lost speed then maybe you can ignore the speed receiver we need, but honestly, how many guys with hip problems ever return to form?
GMJohnson likes this. -
But the point is, those teams need to score 20+ points a game. They aren't going to win a playoff game 10-7, because they don't have the ability to control the clock. Tom Brady threw 19 incompletions when they lost the Super Bowl. Thats 19 times they stopped the clock when it could have kept running. -
Hankerson late 1st...
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Braylon Edwards
Miami: 67 yard TD (all Edwards) on the 1st play after we take a 17-14 lead. Was a nail in our coffin.
Buffalo: 41 yard TD pass in 2nd qtr was the winning score.
Denver: 32 yard TD was the difference in a 24-20 win.
Detroit: 74 yard TD on 3rd and 9 in 23-20 win.
Pitt: 38 yard catch for FG in 22-17 win. Without that play, Pitt is only down 19-17 and Pitt can instead kick a FG to win as time expires.
Buffalo: 52 yard TD seals the game after an early 17-7 lead.
Holmes
Detroit: game winning 52 yard catch & run in OT (FG)......... 31 yard catch into FG range for Jets first score.
Cleveland: game winning 37 yard TD with 0:24 left in OT (ALL Holmes run after catch).
Houston: 41 yard TD (ALL Holmes run after catch) in 30-27 win. Game winning TD with 0:45 left.
Cincy: 13 yard TD with 20 minutes left was the game winning score. (Holmes made a fool out of the DB).
Buffalo: 17 yard TD is the deciding score.
Indy Playoff game
(Jets down by 2 with 0:45 left, on their own 46)
1st play- Edwards for 9.
2nd play- Holmes for 11 (speed gets him out of bounds to stop clock).
4th play- Edwards for 18 (great play on a jump ball).
5th play- FG to win with 0:03
Pats playoff game
Edwards: 37 yard catch on 3rd & 6 sets up TD 2 plays later. (Jets up 7-3)
Edwards: 15 yard TD catch and run on 3rd and 5 before half time. ALL Edwards. (Jets up 14-3)
Holmes: OUTSTANDING diving 7 yard TD on 3rd & 4. (Jets up 21-11 instead of 17-11 if he misses it). Basically the game saving TD.
Pitt playoff game
Holmes 45 yard TD to start the 3rd qtr keeps NY in the game
Contrary to what you say about Sanchez's stats, ou can say what you want about Sanchez's stats, Holmes & Edwards had a MASSIVE impact on the Jets' success. 11 of NY's wins were directly related to a single play by one or both of them.
I'm not sure where you get "consistent Sanchez", but "consistent Sanchez" is nothing without Holmes & Edwards. -
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The combined records of the teams with the top three receivers in the game today is 109-181. That is a 0.375 winning percentage. What kind of impact does a top 5 wide receiver make when Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson don't make a dent into the win column for their respective teams?
Running back is a dime a dozen as well, but wide receiver is the most overrated, least important position on the field. -
Again, there is no evidence out there that shows a wide receiver elevating the play of a team that makes him worth big money or a first round draft pick (or two second round draft picks). -
I do agree with you on not needing a 1st round pick on one. Some of my favorite WRs the past 3 drafts weren't 1st rounders: Mike Wallace, Mike Williams, and Jacoby Ford. IMO Greg Little would be worth his weight in gold opposite Brandon Marshall with those 2 beasts' fire and competitiveness constantly pushing each other. And Jernigan would be a tremendous compliment to Marshall. -
i will always believe that you win championships with a tough stingy defense, a capable running game, good special teams - and an 'ability' to make plays downfield.
we are: 1- 'almost there' on D, 2- nowhere on the running game (right now today), 3- not very good on special teams, and as a result of (2), 4- not very good on the ability to make plays downfield.
we could argue all day long on how 2 & 4 are related ... and how much or whether or not Mallett or Ponder would effect (4) ... but I set my future and draft on 1, 2 & 3 ..... we do 1, 2 & 3 - and i'm confident even Henne can get us (4) ... -
Yes, the Dolphins need much better play from the running back position, the offensive line, and of course the Qb but I strongly disagree that Miami did not need to spend so much on a Wr last year. They absolutely needed it and may have paid a pretty steep price for Marshall but I'm estatic he is here. The one thing the Wr position could use now is some speed. I don't care how they get it and running back and the interior line should be top priority but man if Julio Jones is sitting there at 15, I'm down with taking him within the 1st minute of their allotted 15 minute time limit.
Every offense needs playmakers. Period!ToddsPhins likes this. -
I think back to the start of the 2000's and that great KC offence. They had next to zero at WR but Trent Green was throwing for 4000 yards and Priest Holmes was rushing for 1500 yards and it was all down to the OL.
I'd much rather fix the interior of the OL before I go anywhere near a WR. -
Kitna and his 76 previous career QB rating looked pretty impressive in a Dallas offense that scored 27.8 points per game during Kitna's 10 games (good for 2nd in the NFL) while Kitna finished with an 89 rating, his highest yards per attempt, and his most TDs & yards per game by far. They did this with the 16th ranked rushing offense. Just making an observation.
Also, great QBs typically need great receivers for their greatness to show through. Go back through history and see how many great QBs had outstanding WRs to work with. The number is far greater than the ones who did not.
Just for fun:
Marino- Duper (3x Pro Bowl), Clayton (5x PB), Moore (1x PB).
Montana- Won 4 SBs with Rice (HOF), Dwight Clark (2x All Pro), & John Taylor (2x All Pro).
Joe Namath- won a SB with Don Maynard (HOF) & George Sauer (4x All Star) (combined for 2400 yards, 20 avg, and 14 TDs during 69 SB season)
Daryle Lamonica- Fred Biletnikoff (HOF)
YA Tittle- Del Hoffner (60's All-Decade Team), played together in straight 3 championships. Best 3 years of Tittle's career.
Kenny Stabler- Biletnikoff (HOF) & Cliff Branch (HOF nominee). Won SB 77 together. (best years of Stabler's career).
Kurt Warner- Won 2 SBs with Bruce (4x PB) & Holt (7x PB); almost another with Fitzgerald (5x PB), and Boldin (3x PB).
George Blanda- won 2 straight AFL Championships with Charley Hennigan (AFL HOF) & Brill Groman (1x All Star) (combined for 5100 yards, 47 TDs, and 20 avg in 2 years) Blanda's best years.
Warren Moon- didn't do anything for 4 years until he had Earnest Givens (2x PB), Drew Hill (2x PB), & Haywood Jeffires (3x PB).
Steve Young: 1 SB with Rice, Taylor, & Terrell Owens (future HOF)
Roger Staubach: Bob Hayes (HOF), Drew Pearson (70's All Decade Team), Tony Hill (3x PB) (2 SBs)
Bob Griese: 2 SBs with Paul Warfield (HOF)
Troy Aikman: 3 SBs with Michael Irvin (HOF)
Terry Bradshaw: 4 SBs with Swann (HOF) & Stallworth (HOF)
Norm Van Brocklin: Crazy Legs Hirsch (HOF), Tom Fears (HOF), Tommy McDonald (HOF), Pistol Pete Retzlaff (5x PB) (2 SBs)
Sonny Jurgensen: Bobby Mitchell (HOF), Charley Taylor (HOF), Tommy McDonald (HOF), Pete Retzlaff (5x PB).
Brett Favre: Sterling Sharpe (5x All Pro), Antonio Freeman (Packer HOF), Donald Driver (3x PB), Greg Jennings (1x PB), Sidney Rice (1x PB).
John Elway: Shannon Sharpe (HOF; deserves to be included), Rod Smith (3x PB), Ed McCaffrey (1x PB), Vance Johnson.
Peyton Manning: Marvin Harrison (8x PB, 2000 All Decade Team), Reggie Wayne (5x PB).
Tom Brady: Troy Brown (1x All Pro), Wes Welker (3x All Pro), Randy Moss (7x PB).
Bart Starr: Carrol Dale (HOF), Max McGee (Packer HOF), Boyd Dowler (60's All Decade Team).
Johhny Unitas: Raymond Berry (HOF), Lenny Moore (HOF), John Mackey (HOF TE), Jimmy Orr (2x PB), Roy Jefferson (3x PB).
Otto Graham: Dante Lavelli (HOF), Mac Speedie (40's All Decade Team).
Dan Fouts: Charlie Joiner (HOF), Kellen Winslow (HOF TE), John Jefferson (4x PB), Wes Chandler (4x PB).
Joe Theismann: Art Monk (HOF), Charlie Brown (2x PB).
Jim Kelly: James Lofton (HOF), Andre Reed (7x PB).
Boomer Esiason: Cris Collinsworth (3x PB), Eddie Brown (1x PB), Tim McGee.
-Donovan McNabb: Best season was his only full season with Terrell Owens--- 2004 Offensive POY; 32 TDs; 104 QB rating (20pts higher than career avg).
-Jeff Garcia: his 63 TDs in 2000 & 2001 (with Terrell Owens) were the most by any QB in NFL during that time. His best TD production w/o TO was 13.
Fran Tarkenton- is one of the few not on the list, although he had 3 great years with the Giants 67-69: 2x Pro Bowler, Homer Jones (3300 yards, 28 TDs, 23 avg in 3 years)
If the QB made the surrounding cast rather than the surrounding cast allowing the QB to reach his potential, then teams like Indy would've drafted defensive players in the first round rather than the countless offensive weapons for Peyton.