Is anyone else slightly concerned that Cowher may have become a little outdated because he hasn't coached since going 8-8 in 2006? Even the Steelers' philosophy has changed a little under Tomlin, has it not? (at least on offense) How many of the older school coaches are currently successful in today's NFL verses newer minds? Norv Turner, Belichick (but he's changed with the times, or even been the pioneer of change), Tom Coughlin, and Andy Reid? During the past 5 years, 14 of 20 NFC/AFC Championship appearances (including 7 of 10 SB teams) featured Head Coaches who didn't become a HC until 2004 or after. Mike McCarthy 06, Lovie Smith 04, Sean Payton 06, Ken Whisenhunt 07, John Harbaugh 08, Mike Tomlin 06, Rex Ryan 09, Jim Caldwell 09, Brad Childress 06. That success rate improved to 11 of 12 during the past 3 years (including 6 of 6 SB teams and the past 3 SB Champs). If you add potential AFC/NFC Championship game contenders to that list, there's roughly 5 more: Jim Harbaugh (2011), Jim Schwartz (09), Raheem Morris (09), Mike Smith (08), and Gary Kubiak (06). I'm not saying Cowher won't be successful, but I am saying the odds seem to be favored against him, especially being 5 years removed from coaching during a time when the league has evolved into become even more pass-happy. This seems like a potential Jimmy Johnson part deux, a coach who couldn't rekindle his magic and duplicate his previously successful formula b/c he hypothetically couldn't draft or acquire the players capable of allowing him such. If Cowher is the type of guy who will want to "recreate" what he had in Pitt, then I honestly don't want him; however, if he wants to develop selective amnesia about his former Pitt team and instead focus on starting from scratch with this new Dolphin team and its current players in a changed NFL, then I'd be OK with him if he's kept up with these changes in his spare time like Gruden has.
The biggest concern I have is with previously successful coaches using a past blue-print that includes past coaching & player personnel. The first aspect of this being: Has the HC become dependent on that blue print b/c he was never faced with the dilemma of having to either evolving or fail? Secondly: Will lightening strike twice and allow him to bring in the coaches and draft the impact players needed to duplicate prior success? IMO Head Coaches are just like QBs in the fact that their success is critically dependent on the talent they have to work with. Jimmy Johnson was outstanding with a talented Cowboys team. He tried to duplicate that in Miami but failed. UM receiver, Yatil Green, never became UM receiver, Michael Irvin; Cecil Collins & John Avery never became Emmitt Smith, and so on. Cower had most of his success with: A. Strong ground game-- Jerome Bettis (Steeler All-Time Team & unofficially retired jersey). B. Solid Oline: Dermonti Dawson (HOF finalist Center), Alan Faneca (likely HOF Guard), Jeff Harting (2x Pro Bowl Center), Wayne Gandy (missed 1 start in 8 years), and 5 other Pro Bowlers. C. Great coaches: Chan Gailey, Ken Whisenhunt, Dom Capers, Marvin Lewis, Mike Mularky, Dick LeBeau, Ron Erhardt. D. Kevin Colbert, Steeler GM (2000-present) and the Rooney family. E. Outstanding defensive players: Troy Polamalu, Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton (5x Pro Bowl), James Farrior (2x PB), Joey Porter (4x PB), Levon Kirkland, Brentson Buckner, Rod Woodson (HOF), Kevin Green (HOF finalist), Greg Lloyd (5x Pro Bowl), Hardy Nickerson (5x PB), Chad Brown (3x PB), Carnell Lake (5x PB), Jason Gilden (3x PB). When Cowher didn't have the above combination (this includes a lull at defensive coaching with no Capers, no LeBeau, and no Lewis), he had 3 losing seasons over 6 years: 7-9 in 1998 (includes 1 year Pitt Offensive Coordinator, Ray Sherman); 6-10 in 1999 (includes 2 year Pitt OC, Kevin Gilbride); 6-10 in 2003 (includes multiple starters at LT, LG, and RT.) In 2004 & 2005, LeBeau returns to the defense (along with Whisenhunt as OC) and Pitt jumps to 15-1 followed by a SB win. During this time, there were only 4 total missed starts at Oline IIRC, 5 Pro Bowl appearances at Oline, Roethlisberger added to the offense, and Polamalu added to a talented defense. Where did the success come from? When Cower took over in 1992, was much of his success due to a talented coaching staff that consisted of Ron Erhardt as OC, Dom Capers as DC, Dick LeBeau as DB coach, and Marvin Lewis as LB coach? Was it due to the player-talent the coaches had to work with? Was it a combination of Cowher, the coaching staff, AND the team's talent? Or was the coaching staff responsible for developing these players? Or was Cowher the mastermind responsible for developing the coaches who developed the players? I'm sure Cowher had something to do with their success, but it seems like he was the benefactor of having a top notch organization from top to bottom and everything in between, including great coaches and a highly talented roster.
Andy Reid I can't agree with. I think he keeps up with the times. His defenses have slipped, that's why he's not looked at as the HC he once was. I think he might be fired at the end of the year and I would love to have him here to raise a young QB. There is NOBODY better.
The Magic play in the NFL? The President is a player in the NFL? Until you can tell me WHO has won a Super Bowl with two different teams as head coach, you've disproved nothing and your irrelevent comparrisons of the NBA and the President won't change the fact that no head coach has won the Super Bowl with two different teams. It's not happened and it never will...and most CERTAINLY will not happpen with the Dolphins.
This is why of the established head caoches, Jon Gruden would be my choice. Why? Adaptability. Jon Gruden already has a very adaptable offense, and offensive minded coaches tend to be more adaptable than defensive minded coaches. The big thing with Gruden is that his time off has not been spent just idling. He has been studying the college spread offenses, and he has said on more than one occasion that he would like to run the college spread when he returns to the NFL. I think ultimately what you would see is a west coast style that is run out of the spread, if that makes any sense. A good comparison might be New Orelans and Green Bay, who both have WCO tendencies but spread the field. I think Gruden is smitten with the idea of having a dual threat at quarterback though.
Mike Tomlin as an example isn't really helping your argument. Tomlin simply steered a ship that was already built. He had an elite QB in place on a team that had already won a championship. Neither does Ken Whisenhunt, who also had an elite QB already in place. What have the Cardinals done since Warner retired? Read my comments again. I'm not saying an 'inexperienced' coordinator is an impossible fit as a head coach... I'm just saying it's a totally different kind of job, and a great coordinator doesn't positively equate to a great head coach, and I'd be skeptical because of many, many previous failures. Chud could turn out to be the best choice as a head coach... I don't know... however, I do have my doubts.
