Four Downs: AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Penny Wise and Pound Foolish?
When free agency started, one of the safer assumptions was that Buffalo would add a receiver, and preferably a big receiver. Last year Buffalo fielded the smallest group of receivers in the league, with Lee Evans, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish all standing under 6 feet tall. Coincidentally or not, Trent Edwards completed only 57 percent of his passes on the season, and he was often seen squinting into the distance just before being sacked.

There were several big receivers on the free agent market, and the Bills hosted two of them, but both Bryant Johnson and D.J. Hackett left Orchard Park without a contract. Hackett signed a two-year, $3.5 million deal with Carolina, while Johnson inked a one-year deal with San Francisco, which means at the very least that it’s unlikely that the Bills were outbid for their services.

With the last viable receivers off the market, the next option is the draft, but herein lies the rub, because it’s not a strong receiving class. No one seems to know who the best receiver is, whether it is Oklahoma’s Malcolm Kelly or Texas’ Limas Sweed or even LSU’s Early Doucet, but the one thing that most draft analysts are agreed on is that there isn’t a surefire star in the group.

Free Agency Recap
Buffalo’s biggest addition came not through free agency but via a trade, as they sent third- and fifth-round picks to Jacksonville for mammoth defensive tackle Marcus Stroud. Stroud is freakishly athletic for a big man, but the Jaguars were concerned that recurring injuries were sapping his explosiveness. Stroud will be asked primarily to tie up blockers in this scheme, so as long as he stays off the South Beach Diet, he should do fine.

The Bills also signed Kavika Mitchell to bolster the linebacking corp, and took fliers on Minnesota reserve Spencer Johnson, tight end Courtney Anderson and star-crossed cornerback Will “Don’t Call Me Peterson” James.

Draft Needs
Did we mention that the Bills need a receiver? Unfortunately, they picked the wrong draft, as there aren’t any receivers worthy of the 11th overall selection. The Bills haven’t been shy about putting need above value in recent years, as they took Donte Whitner, John McCargo and Marshawn Lynch all well before those players expected to hear their name called, so it’s possible that the front office simply settles on a big receiver like Devin Thomas or Limas Sweed and calls it a day.
Another possibility is that the Bills take a corner and wait on the receiver until the second round, in which case guys like Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Mike Jenkins could be options. If they don’t like the value at corner, they could take a defensive end like Clemson’s Phillip Merling, who would provide more solid run defense than the current rotation of Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney. Expect the Bills to look for a receiving tight end at some point in the middle rounds and possibly a developmental quarterback that would allow the team to cut its ties to J.P. Losman.

Miami Dolphins
To QB or not to QB?
In the drafts that Bill Parcells has had final say over, he’s selected the following group of players with his first-round picks: Drew Bledsoe, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, James Farrior, Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Chad Pennington, Anthony Becht, Terrence Newman, Marcus Spears and Bobby Carpenter. That’s eight defensive players out of eleven picks. What’s more, Parcells wanted to use a first-round pick on Tony Brackens instead of Terry Glenn, only to be overruled by owner Bob Kraft in the Great New England Supermarket Massacre of 1996.

Clearly Parcells is a believer in the desirability of building around first-round defensive talent. But he has also shown a proclivity for building his offenses around top quarterback talent. He spent most of his coaching career trotting out Phil Simms (seventh overall selection in 1979), Drew Bledsoe (first overall selection in 1993) or Vinny Testaverde (first overall selection in 1987). It is highly likely he would have spent the first overall pick in 1997 on Peyton Manning had Manning entered the draft after his junior season.

Two quarterbacks in the draft have the kind of size and arm strength that Parcells has traditionally valued: Boston College’s Matt Ryan and Delaware’s Joe Flacco. To get Ryan, the Dolphins would have to use the No. 1 overall selection on him. Flacco is a rising star and may not be on the board by the time Miami exercises its second-round pick. The odds are good that one of these two will end up wearing orange and teal, but which one?

Free Agency Recap
When looking at Miami’s off-season moves, one would almost get the impression that Parcells and general manager Jeff Ireland didn’t think highly of the roster they inherited. The Dolphins cut ten players, signed 12 free agents and traded for Parcells’ binky Jason Ferguson just for good measure.

None of the new additions would qualify as big-name players, but they are generally young and almost invariably better than the players they are replacing. The one exception might be Josh McCown, who managed the Herculean feat of being worse than all three of Miami’s quarterbacks last year. But players like Ernest Wilford, Randy Starks and Justin Smiley figure at the very least to remove some of the team’s matchup liabilities even if they don’t generate major problems for opponents. The Dolphins did make a play for one big-ticket free agent in end/linebacker hybrid Calvin Pace, but he elected to sign with the division-rival Jets.

Draft Needs
What the Dolphins need more than anything is to not whiff with the first pick overall. Matt Ryan will be a consideration for all the reasons discussed, but if Miami cannot trade down, it seems more likely that they will choose between two of the safest prospects in the draft in Jake Long and Chris Long, with Howie’s boy being the odds-on favorite. Chris Long has the flexibility to play with his hand on the ground or standing up in the 3-4, and he has excelled under the watchful eye of Parcells’ old linebackers coach, Al Groh. Long’s senior stat line — 79 tackles, 19 for a loss, 14 sacks, two forced fumbles, 10 pass deflections and one interception — highlight both his versatility and his consistency.

The Dolphins will probably target Flacco in the second round, and they may decide to package picks to move up into the back end of the first to ensure that they get him. But most of this draft will go towards rebuilding the offensive line and the defensive front seven.

link to rest of story
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2008/04/14/ramblings/four-downs/6227/