Newton is absolutely going to be the first quarterback taken. The question is whether Carolina passes on him.

 

Eh, I called it about 2 weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of the first completely, now that Locker's stock is supposedly falling also. This guy was very average imo in college and out of nowhere, his draft stock went from 4th-6th round to top 5. He has never really impressed me.

Although, this is Mel Kiper and Todd McShay saying both guys' stocks are falling. So, you never know.

 

Locker never deserved the “possible #1 overall pick” hype that McShay built up for him last year. That was just an instance of the 24-hour news cycle needing something to talk about, so they created false quarterback drama at the top of the draft.

Gabbert is a legitimate first round pick.

 

Carolina, Buffalo, Cinci, to me he comes off of the board first, then the Defensive talent takes over, if Miller is gone by the Cardinals pick imho Gabbert goes to AZ.

Via process of elimination:

Carolina (2-14) Qb=Yes
Denver (4-12) Qb=no
Buffalo (4-12) QB=no, but Nix is crazy with BPA
Cincinnati (4-12) QB=yes, they could easily take Palmer seriously and take Newton
Arizona (5-11) Qb=yes
Cleveland (5-11) Qb=no
San Francisco (6-10) Qb=maybe
Tennessee (6-10) Qb=yes
Dallas (6-10) Qb=no
Washington (6-10) Qb=yes
Houston (6-10) Qb=no
Minnesota (6-10) Qb=yes
Detroit (6-10) Qb=no
St. Louis (7-9) Qb=no
Miami (7-9) Qb=??????

6 teams ahead of us with legit Qb needs, of them Washington and the titans have Coaches who will certainly want a Qb, Carolina could go in any direction, AZ may go with Bulger and Skelton and Hall, MN is certain to take a Qb in SF supposedly Harbaugh and Smith are hitting it off.

Now this could go either way as Locker and Mallet really are late first rd types of picks, and Kaepernik could slide into the first rd to someplace like Minnesota, so 2 certain #1 picks in Gabbert and Newton, then 3 wildcard Qb's, and 6 teams in the market.

OR

Carolina (2-14) No
Denver (4-12) No
Buffalo (4-12) No
Cincinnati (4-12) No
Arizona (5-11) Yes
Cleveland (5-11) No
San Francisco (6-10) No
Tennessee (6-10) Yes
Dallas (6-10) No
Washington (6-10) Yes
Houston (6-10) No

To me, that is how things will play out, 3 Qb's in the top 15, a very very safe Draft all around.
Minnesota (6-10)
Detroit (6-10)
St. Louis (7-9)
Miami (7-9)

 

If he falls to 15 I'll be jumping for joy, but past experiences with this franchise has me fearing a Quinn/Ginn feeling of disappointment.

 

He said it in a conference call with redskins media:
http://kansascity.sbnation.com/miss...l-kiper-cam-newton-jake-locker-blaine-gabbert

 

Well, the draft is a crap shoot, this yr though, I suspect it will be a straight forward affair.

I suspect the Panthers will do what we did in 08, make a flat offer to Newton/Bowers/Fairley, whomever takes it is the guy they draft.

The Top 10 players are pretty well known by now with the only question really being who goes where among those 10 players.

 

How would have Brady Quinn worked out for ya?

Be carefull what u wish for fellow Phin fans.

 

Sounds to me we better start talking about the guys that might be around when its our time, or in the 2nd round and later...Ckap and Andy Dalton..

 

I'm not for or against this guy ... I was just providing the the source to PhinGeneral's statement about RotoWorld not providing the source

 

Or this team grows some cajones, and if they have a strong conviction for a certain player...then trade up and make sure you get him. Don't sit back at 15, and be like "ahh schucks". Control your own destiny. Maybe they don't like any of the qbs that will go high, but if they do, I want to see Miami be assertive and aggressive come draft day. "Do somtin crazy, do somtin crazy"...

 

Well, look at it this way, we have no #2 pick, we'd have to move up at least to Dallas at the #9, where is the ammunition for such a trade up going to come from?

Add in, we are looking at a long lockout, drat a qb say at #9, somehow, then they are most likely going to sit as they do not know the offense, so basically you trade up for a Qb, we won't have a pick until #77 that would have much certainty of playing at all until 2012.

Basically, we would use two drafts worth of high picks for one player who won't contribute in 2011 why would Sparano do that knowing that his job is on the block if they do not win in 2011?

To me, that makes no sense at all, the reaility is unless a Qb surprising slides to #15 we will not be drafting one this yr.

 

I doubt Barffalo passes on Newton. If ya'; remember how Chan Gailey's offense made Reggie Ball into a offensive threat. Newton would be better in Chan's system.

 

A long lockout is not a given. Short or long , you have nfl experts siding on both sides of that prediction.

 

I still think that the value (as per QB options) will be found in Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton, 2nd and 3rd rds respectively. The scenario of trading down in the 1st to pick up that lost 2nd from the Marshall trade works for me- in fact it seems like an obvious preference given what will most likely be available at #15, with the one caveat being-maybe- the RB Ingram. Maybe WR Jones as well now that I think about it. . Pick up the QB as a safety net (or just get another talented player) and worst case scenario get a Carimi, Pouncy or Wisniewski in the mid/late 1st. Maybe slide Carey inside to compete with John Jerry, who knows. Carimi remains a favorite of mine- my guess is that he's being targeted by the Steelers. Side note- the fact that they were able to draft Mike Wallace in the 3rd rd still pisses me off.

That being said- Henne's stock is down right now and all that it will take to pump it back up is a few good games next year. Dude had some bad luck and also made his share of bad plays. **** happens- look at the similar situation of Fasano the last couple of years. Could easily happen again. Would be interesting to me if Julio Jones is available at #15 or we trade doown and Jonathan Baldwin is staring us in the face. How perfect would Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace be as a WR tandem. Wishful thinking

 

Look at it this way, the bigger the dollars, the bigger the argument.

 

I would be happy with Moffit in Rd #3, in Rd #1 whomever it is has to make an impact early not become a JJ like project.

Julio Jones is a guy I really like, but think our Wr corps is neatly set up with BH and BM both 1k type Wr's, what we could use is a Darren Sproiles type of running back later in the draft, was thinking maybe Dion Lewis could be that guy.

Well, labor problems would benefit no one more than Chad Henne, to me he did have a down yr but now amongst fans he has been completely devalued with little objectivity behind it, let a couple of months of boring Labor Talk hit the airwaves and Henne's problems will be in the rear view mirror.

But I'd still claim Vince Young if he hit the market, maybe J Russell as well, one or the other.

 

Or the more to lose as well.

Certainly doesn't look rosy , but break through in negotiations happen unexpectently all the time.

 

Agreed. The sit back and take the safer route has not worked. Time to get proactive and go get a top flight QB prospect.

Is that the same way the value was to take John Beck and Chad Henne in the 2nd round? I don't mean to be a jerk, but I just don't get how after year after year of failing with 2nd rate QB's we could still like the idea of going in that direction again. Sometimes you have to be willing to take a big risk if you want a big reward. If the Dolphins brass don't like any of these top rated guys, then fine don't take them and trade down. But if they do they need to go out and make a move to get whichever one (or one of the ones) they really like.

 

Care to bet on that? Gabbert will be drafted ahead of Newton.

 

Agreed ... McShay's ability to judge talent has always seemed questionable at best to me ... He reminds me of a guy who chases the stock market ... always buying and selling stocks based on news instead of just waiting for oversold, low prices to jump in :lol:

 

No, he won’t.

Barring trades, Newton goes #4 to Cincy at the latest. Gabbert goes #7 to San Francisco.

 

If this alleged taped proof that Newton knew and was lying to the NCAA turns out to be legit then Gabbert will go before Newton, but as things stand now I would say that Newton is likely to be the first QB taken.

 

The Bengals tried the one year wonder QB thing about a decade ago, selcting Akili Smith out of Oregon #2 overall- it didn't work out so well. I doubt that they try it again with Newton. I would draft Gabbert over Newton and I wouldn't think twice about it. I think that the Bengals will look hard at Gabbert in the 1st and if they pass then Christian Ponder in the 2nd, maybe Dalton.

 

Hard to tell, the Bills are definetely going to select and not trade their pick, and Nix likes BPA, they are likely to have first shot at any Qb on the board so I suspect it will boil down to who Chn Gailey likes better, have to sort of give the edge to Newton as Gailey had good results with Kordell Stewart at Qb.

 

Ah, I see. You’re projecting your preferences onto the draft board.

 

And you're projecting what? What I'm projecting is some relatively recent case history of the Bengals' drafts, particularly as per one year college QB wonders, and how I feel that it will impact their decision making in the first round of this upcoming draft.

 

Realistic chances of being drafted based on level of prospect talent and team need.

Whether or not a specific selection is the best move for a team is not as relevant as whether or not they will make that selection. You’re arguing that Cincy shouldn’t; I’m arguing that, whether or not they should, they almost assuredly will.

 

And I'm guessing that they won't draft Newton that high based upon his case history and their parallel Akili Smith experience, the caveat being how often the Bengals go to the well with risky draft picks. And on top of that I like Gabbert better than Newton. Then again maybe the Bills take Gabbert at #3 and the Bengals don't have that option, who knows. If I were the Bengals I'd draft the best player available, maybe Patrick Peterson if available depending on who they have at CB, and target Ponder in the 2nd rd. Or simply take Gabbert if available.

 

You are the only person who thinks Cam Newton is a parallel to Akili Smith. That’s where your bias comes in.

Unless you have proof that the Bengals front office believes drafting Newton would parallel drafting Smith, then it’s just you pulling a Mel Kiper and projecting your opinions onto the draft board.

 

at least mel Kiper puts a lot of research into those draft boards

 

Hmmm. One year wonder, strong arm, big strong mobile QB- those strike me as parallels. I was also one of the exceedingly few who saw Tebow as an excellent QB prospect and even more specifically better than the stiff known as Jimmy Claussen. So I think that I'll stick to my guns.

 

The question is whether or not the Bengals see a parallel.

 

Hopefully a CBA gets drafted sooner than later and we can stuff some vets at the top so some of these QBs can fall. Don't see Gabbert going before Newton tho.