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Good post game write up by Wingfield.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Aug 10, 2018.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK.. if we're going to do this we have to do it at least halfway right. That is, we HAVE to adjust for era, otherwise the era alone will bias everything. So.. let's start with Brady data. I plotted on the x-axis each 2017-adjusted passer rating he had in regular season games he started and on the y-axis the win% for all games with that adjusted passer rating or lower.
    [​IMG]

    So.. it turns out 85 is almost exactly at 50% for Brady. So what do we compare that to? Here's the 2017-adjusted passer rating vs. win% from 2002-2017.
    [​IMG]

    The average number of wins for 2017-adjusted passer rating 85 or below is 6.2231 wins or 38.9% win%. So Brady is clearly well above that. Obviously, this includes the effect of the defense, coach AND Brady, but these graphs are consistent with Brady increasing win%.
     
  2. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    If Jalen is talking about the games Big Ben played vs the Jags last year, he's absolutely correct.
     
  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What is the raw number for Brady? As I recall, the Patriots win almost 50% of the games when Brady throws for under an 85 rating. Compare to Tannehill, which I think was lower than the average of almost 39%.

    Basically, the Patriots win around 60% of the games that Brady throws over an 85, and I think almost 50% of the games where he throws below. So I'm confused as to how that indicates that Brady is the driving force behind their wins.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah.. like I said in the post above the raw number for Brady is 50% win% when his adjusted rating is 85 or less. For Tannehill it's 22%, again with adjusted ratings. Oh, and for adjusted ratings over 85 Brady wins about 89% (his overall win percentage is 78% so obviously 85+ ratings have to be more than that).

    Anyway, you're right that this approach won't show Brady is a driving force behind their wins. This approach is useful for showing the effect of the defense for comparable passer rating, but the approach is useless for answering the question of how many wins a QB (i.e. a QB-led offense) is adding. However, note that the numbers are consistent with Brady helping, even if they're not evidence of it. I mean.. if his win percentage was less than expected, then we have a problem because his defense has been really good.

    Point is.. you have to do it using that z-score approach I used. This approach is simply useless for answering the question.


    **Maybe this hypothetical example might help show why this approach is useless:

    Suppose QB's A and B both win 50% of the time when their adjusted ratings are 85 or less. You'd say they're similar QB's? There's no evidence of that because you don't know the distribution of their passer ratings. For example, QB A might only have 25% of his ratings below 85 while QB B might have 75% below, yet both might win 50% of the time when below 85.

    So as you can see, not knowing the distribution of passer ratings because you dichotomized (below 85 vs. above 85, removing all other info) makes this a useless measure for determining influence of the QB.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Can’t wait to hear the news bro.

    What I really like seeing is all the big brand sponsors you are getting for your show..
     
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  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What I'm saying is that Brady gets pretty significant help from other parts of his team, and that contributes to wins. Help that Tannehill, for instance, does not get.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah....like the guy with binoculars that lip reads every opponent's play call, or the sound guys that jam other team's headsets. Let's not even start with deflated footballs, libraries of playbooks, the interrogation room, illegal formations in the playoffs, bugging locker rooms and hotels, dumpster diving for play sheets, etc.

    Maybe I'm an idiot, but I've always believed that rules are meant to be followed. If you're going out of your way to break those rules then you're not the GOAT or the MVP, you're a fraud. I don't buy the argument that the Pats didn't have to cheat to win either- they chose to break the rules and that makes them losers by default.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We all know that, and those z-score ratings at least adjusted for defense, so that "part of the team" is accounted for. Obviously one can't estimate the effect of a good/great HC or remove the effect of all other offensive components, but I qualified all that from the outset and that's an issue with EVERY QB on that list.

    Nevertheless, based on what we are capable of adjusting for, Brady (or better: Brady-led offense) is top 15 all time.
     
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  9. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    With this being year 2.5 for Tannehill in Gase's system, I am hopeful that he can let what intangibles he does have shine through. I would imagine how hard it is to let everything flow naturally when you are still a little uncomfortable with the system. I know last year he was hurt and didn't' play, but I am sort of counting it because he was so heavily involved and he studied his butt off. This year I expect a little bit of a slow start, but as the season wears on my hope is his growth and ability will start to climb rapidly.
     
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  10. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Fake news is only stuff that is critical of Pumpkin Head isn't it?
     
  11. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

     
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  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    But honestly Key...

    The things you mentioned above are not illegal, maybe immoral but not breaking rules.
     
  13. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Maybe this will calm you guys down a bit:



    Here are the money quotes (paraphrasing):

    On Gesicki: "we're working on his run blocking and pass blocking, the pass catching will come later"

    On if Gase is disappointed in how the offense is performing in the red zone: "We don't want to show everything in the pre-season, we're working on specific things in these games.. I'm looking at the big picture. In the regular season we'll be more aggressive in those situations"

    Basically he's keeping things under wraps deliberately.

    I'd say there are few things they are not going to show until the regular season:
    1) Getting RT out of the pocket and running
    2) Passing to Gesicki
    3) Using that 12 personnel package with Wilson, Grant, Gray and Gesicki
    4) Taking deep shots
    5) Getting Minkah, TJ and Reshad on the field together.

    By the way, make sure to get to around the 15:00 mark, Gase disses Omar lol.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018
  14. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Na.

    It’s the act of making stuff up out of thin air.

    It’s not cool for anyone.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Thanks for posting that, but for me at least it just reinforces my concerns. Specifically from around 3:30.

    Gase is basically saying he needs near perfect execution on 1st and 2nd down so that we don't face 3rd and long, and that he has no plan for 3rd and long. I pointed this out before, but this dink and dunk is fine as long as you don't have offensive penalties or dropped passes, and Gase doesn't have a backup plan if he can't get perfect execution!

    As far as holding things back, that's fine for trick plays or plays specifically designed for an opponent, but you can't just assume what might work in practice will work in a real game. Too many players need practice in game like situations to justify going all conservative in preseason. I mean why not try out some deep balls to see if the timing is there or how well the WR runs the route?

    Anyway.. proof will be in how the regular season unfolds. But that video is just reinforcing my concerns.
     
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  16. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Near perfect execution would be making a first down on first down, IMO.

    He's not asking for near perfect execution, he's asking for regular execution, getting 3-4 yards on first down, then a couple more on 2nd down so that we can get to 3rd and 5 or less on a consistent basis, I don't see the problem with expecting that to be the norm.

    The problem is we're going backwards far too often with penalties and negative plays on first and second down, so then we have to convert 3rd and 10+, which is just much harder to do.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No, in the context of what Gase was describing, near perfect execution means precisely getting those 3-5 yards each time. He's not designing plays to get huge chunks of yards, and he has no backup plan if players don't execute properly.

    This is simply bad strategizing. Play calling should be as robust as possible w.r.t. what players are likely able to do. And you know what? We do have deep threats. What is Stills? Parker can go up and grab balls. Why not leverage that more instead of dink and dunk. The dink and dunk with other teams often works because they can keep defenses honest. Gase is making our offense too predictable if what he described is truly his plan. We'll see what happens course.
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dumpster diving and reading lips may not be against the rules... But the other stuff most definitely is...or it should be. No team should be allowed to bug opposing teams rooms.
     
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's how I sort of felt as well. Third and 10 is part of the game and we face it quite often; there has to be a game-plan other than grabbing 3 yards on 1st down and 3 more on 2nd. I know you can't practice everything in pre-season...but I don't see how getting 10+ yards a pop isn't part of that.

    At the same time though, he also said that he's hiding a decent part of the offense and he later said that teams don't have much film on how to deal with Grant. So I'm hoping that they didn't want to do much with Grant the other night and without Stills/Parker, that left very few intermediate passing options. Hopefully that means they do have options for 3rd and 10, we're just not going to see them for two more weeks.

    Either way, all we can do is wait and see.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There was a meeting back in the early 2000's where all the team owners came together with the new commissioner Goodell. One of the things brought up in that meeting was spying, stealing intel, etc. and a few teams pointed the finger at NE for going too far. The Pats admitted what they were doing and said that they thought all teams were doing the same thing....then promised not to do it anymore. They doubled down though and promoted Ernie Adams.

    I can't give extensive details, but a lot of this came from an attorney who represented one of the league teams back during deflate-gate. The media paints Kraft and Belichek like a saint but the other owners have a very different opinion. Make no mistake though, deflating footballs is against the rules. Jamming/intercepting on-field communications is against the rules. Bribing players to steal confidential information from their previous team is against numerous US laws. Just because the rule book doesn't specifically state that you can't bug locker rooms and hotels doesn't make it fair play.

    I'll bet you a dollar- the year after Adams retires is the year that the Pats dynasty ends. I honestly believe that he's more influential than Belichek to that team's success.
     
  21. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Where are you getting this notion that he's designing plays to only get 3-5 yards though? He may be showing mostly these plays in the preseason, but they have plays to attack all areas of the field.. just look at the 2016 tape and it will show you.
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    In your video he says they need to get no negative plays on 1st and 2nd down so that they have 3rd and manageable. For Gase, 3rd and 10 is "unmanageable". Now I'm not saying we'll never take shots downfield, but just listening to him it sounds like he wants drives to consist mostly of high probability plays that get you a decent chunk of yards each time.

    I could imagine a coach answering differently.. you know saying that in the regular season we'll try to keep defenses honest by making it part of the game plan to throw in deep passes often enough so that we don't become too predictable, even if that means the probability the drive ends early is higher. Kind of like using the running game early to wear down a defense even if that might not be the best play call to get a 1st down.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've felt that the dink and dink was a result of the oline not being able to block long enough for deep routes to develop.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Certainly made sense with our porous OL in the past, but Gase seems to have the guys he wants on the OL now. Gase also said when he came here that he was "comfortable with an offense that exploited the horizontal aspect of the field more than vertical", so I think this is just how he wants the offense to look like.
     
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  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Maybe. But I don't think it's fair to try to imply that he isn't going to use more vertical passing concepts based on preseason stuff.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Oh.. as I've repeatedly said I'll pass judgment only after seeing what happens in the regular season. All I was saying is that the video Brasfin posted isn't alleviating my concerns.
     
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  27. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Excellent discussion! Did anyone see Dowell say a few days ago that he wants our QBs to take the 1st. progression if it is there? I am guessing that doesn't mean that the 1st progression is always the shortest throw, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of our plays are the dink and dunk type and the 1st. progression turns out to be exactly that. Gase views a short pass like a run and is happy if we get 4 or 5 yards. I can understand why to a point. If the play is designed and executed correctly, a short pass in open space where our WR/RB only has one guy to beat could turn into a big play. If they don't bust one, getting tackled after 4 or 5 yards isn't a bad thing and keeps us on schedule. Personally, I prefer to run the ball down their throat, and when they choke up to try and stop it, hit a WR on a intermediate pass for a big gain or TD. Of course, that philosophy might be a little outdated. I also think we should go for the big DT's like Timbo and Gardner who were monsters against the run and forced RB's to bounce it outside. Good thing I am not in charge of things, huh. :-)
     
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  28. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I read the comments stating how something the team did was unproductive or just didn't work and how that observation confirmed that we are in for trouble.

    That seems to me to be analogous to a man drowning in deep water and when given the choice of reaching for a flotation ring or a sinking rock, he chooses the sinking rock.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think that's all fine in theory, but look at our 3rd down conversion percentages in 2016 and 2017. We were 25th in the league in 2016 and dead LAST in 2017:
    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

    So let's step back for a moment and ask ourselves how good Gase has been his first 2 years in getting players to execute a game plan that, if executed properly, should NOT put us in 3rd and long that often. Yeah.. terrible.

    This is where theory meets reality.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, I'd like to see what percent of our third and longs were a direct result of a penalty on first or second down, and if we were above league average for that before I go too far down the path of 3rd and longs being a result of Gase's system sucking.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Don't know precisely what percent of 3rd and longs were the direct result of a penalty on 1st or 2nd down, but a pretty good proxy answer is total offensive penalties (vs. just 2 out of 3 downs), and we were terrible with offensive penalties in both 2016 and 2017. In terms of total penalties we were 5th worst in 2016 and 2nd worst in 2017:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/

    And in terms of offensive penalties per play we were 2nd worst in both years! What that tells you is that Gase is simply not good at getting execution out of his players to make sure we face enough 3rd and manageable.
     
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  32. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Are you sure you don't have your "Richard" in your mouth?
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I agree somewhat...I don't want the head coach micro managing each unit... I'd like to see position coaches being responsible for stuff like penalties. BUT, I also think that players should be scared if Gase has to come over and get involved. But, I wonder if Gase tries to let his coaches manage that stuff. Would make sense given how friendly he seems to be with the players.

    So, Gase could be contributing if he's not taking guys to task for the penalties, which it certainly seems he's not, at this point.
     
  34. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I wish I could ask Tunsil and James who is the most responsible for their false starts and holding penalties.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'm sure they won't blame the coach. But some coaches are good at getting players to stay disciplined (e.g. Shula). Gase isn't one of those coaches (yet).

    Anyway, you can get player penalty info here:
    http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-tunsil-miami-dolphins?year=2017
    http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/j-james-miami-dolphins?year=2017

    Turns out Tunsil had 6 penalties in 2016 and 12 in 2017, while James had 12 penalties in 2016 and 5 in 2017. That's out of a total of 125 offensive penalties for the Dolphins in 2016 and 137 in 2017.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2018
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  36. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Yikes! Those numbers make me cringe! We all know this is one big reason holding us back. I hope they can get it squared away come the start of the season. You can't put your foot on the gas when the engine is sputtering.
     
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