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Grier's Obituary

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Nov 28, 2021.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    So, I have been penning Chris Grier's obituary for some time now. The season began with pure disappointment, and the fact that he botched the 2020 draft has been palpable.

    Over the last few weeks, I firmly believe that Tua has solidified his role as the face of the franchise.

    What I did not expect was the that the sequel to one of the worst drafts in Dolphins' history may very well be the best draft in the history of the franchise. Holland has been a top 10 safety in the league from the very moment he walked on the field. All of the trading that led us to getting Waddle has actually panned out. I suspect that we have seen merely the tip of the iceberg in terms of what we can expect to get out of Waddle. He will be a superstar by next season. How about Phillips? He started slow, but he has steadily gotten better over the course of the season. I think a 10 sack rookie season is entirely possible, and he could wind up challenging Micah Parsons for DROY. I think he could also wind up being a superstar in the league.

    I pride myself in being a very, very realistic Phins' fan, and I do not hesitate to buck popular opinion or "not trust the plan." That being said, I will also give credit when it is due.

    This is not a definitive declaration in support of Grier, but I think it is something that needs to be said and discussed. 2020 was a really bad draft minus Tua. In 2021, he may very well have drafted three elite player while picking up draft capital.
     
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  2. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    He hit on Holland and Phillips for sure. As for Waddle, he is a very good player, but not worth the two 1st rounders we gave up to get him. We could have stayed at 12, kept our picks, and stil picked up waddle or another very good player.

    Overall, I think Grier's drafting and personel management record is abysmall.

    His misses greatly outnumber his hits.
     
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  3. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Our line is so bad that we are reduced to short to medium passes. Just watch. If the line improves, Waddle is gonna be an ELITE WR in the league. Mark my words, Waddle could EASILY evolve into one of the best WRs in the history of the team.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    2021 is turning out to be a fantastic draft. It's really irrelevant what we gave up for Waddle. What matters is how many good players you get from the draft regardless of how you did it (even including luck hitting on low rounders), and 3 good/very good players is fantastic. Problem for Grier is that 2021 looks like an anomaly.

    However, hitting on the QB is massive, and needing help on the OL is really fortunate because not every position is equally likely to bust. According to the following link OL is by far the safest in the 1st round with over 80% becoming consistent starters, and 70% from the 2nd round becoming consistent starters. So the future looks bright even with Grier as GM as long as Tua keeps improving.
    https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

    Copying the stats for finding consistent starters from that link here:
    1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
    2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
    3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
    4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
    5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
    6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
    7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
     
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  5. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Let's just call Phillips a "pass rusher." I think hitting on a QB and a pass rusher is massive.
     
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  6. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    phillips has really come on in recent weeks...I hope it continues.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This "funny math" has been driving me nuts for months now.

    • We had 1 pick, and traded it for 3 picks. (1 + 1 + 1 = 3)
    • Then we traded two of those picks to move back up. We gained a pick back though, so: (3 - 2 + 1 = 2)
    • So we had one pick, then three, and then we had two picks. (still 3 - 1 = 2)
    • We took Waddle for one pick. (2 - 1 = 1)
    • We still have one pick next year. (1 = 1)
    To summarize the math, we started with one 1st rounder and ended with Waddle and a 1st rounder in 2023. We DID NOT pay two first round picks for Waddle- we basically got him for free by deferring our 2021 pick to 2023. Please stop this insanity!
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
  8. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    2 picks possibly in the teens for Waddle doesn't seem so bad now. This offense would be real ugly without him.
     
  9. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    This is a testament to just how good the draft class is. Holland was a stud from the moment he got on the field. This is NOT NORMAL.

    Has Waddle disappointed once? Nope. He has been consistently good and improving almost immediately - NOT NORMAL.

    For a normal rookie like Phillips, I would say, "Disregard earlier in the season. He was learning. Evaluate what he has done lately." This is a normal and reasonable way to assess any rookie. The crazy thing is that two other guys from the same class have been so successful it sorta unfairly jades people.
     
  10. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    This is my argument against the move up to get Waddle. I think waddle is gonna be good. But I’m not willing to spend 2 top 12 picks for any WR. We could have still got him at 12 or Smith. I think Waddle has the edge at this point but Smith looks good too. Then you have 2 first round picks this year with a lot of good OL and pass rushers.

    In terms of your original post, I agree. Our first 3 players look like they will make some pro bowls. I think Liam will be decent too, he’s just playing out of position because Austin Jackson sucks so bad.

    I just hope when we finally get Dieter back, we will block a little better and have all healthy WR’s, so we can see what Tua really can do.
     
  11. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Where I disagree - I think Waddle is an absolute hit right now. Honestly, start thinking about WRs in the league that you would trade straight up for Waddle (factor in salary). I bet that number is pretty low. Just wait till we can let plays develop. That number is gonna decrease. As far as the compensation, ding him if you would like. If we can get an elite WR and pick up a 1 in 2023 albeit, I am good. In the long run, if you get a truly special player, I rarely think the compensation matters all that much.

    Where I agree - Liam. I think he could be great too. After this season, he will never be a LT again. The only reason he is there is because AJ is terrible. Currently, he is being a team player. For my personal eval, I plan on wiping the slate clean next year and starting from square one when he is at a new position.
     
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  12. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I can come up with several, I would trade him for Jamar Chase straight up. Waddle is good, but he is just a very good slot receiver. He does not play very well on the boundary and is not a guy who you can designate as your WR1.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2021
  13. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Oh definitely, there are guys. Probably several. But he is in pretty exclusive company.
     
  14. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    You bring up a good point, if you hit 50% on your first rounders, the other 1st could have been a miss and Waddle could very well be a home run. If you told me for every 2 1st round picks, 1 is an all-pro player and the other is a bust, I’d take that. It’s really early but Phillips, Waddle and Holland look like they at least have the potential.

    It was just such a deep WR draft and man what would this team look like with Rashawn Slater, a legit franchise LT. But I’m not gonna complain when 3 of your picks are home runs.

    At this point, we need to start drafting more OL to fix this mess and a Cb to replace Jones.
     
  15. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Devante Parker is every Dolphins fans favorite number one receiver. Do you know how many times he's had 137 yards in a game?

    Twice.
     
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  16. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the line is a disaster. I would be willing to sign/draft any good lineman at any position. I think the reality is a lot of our OL is total misses.
     
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  17. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I would love to see us draft Tyler Linderbaum OC out of Iowa and then sign a mid tier LT.

    Id be happy with:
    LT- Cam Robinson
    LG- Davis
    C- Linderbaum
    RG- Hunt
    RT- Eichenberg

    That line could be good or do you back up the brinks truck for Armstead and potentially have a really good OL.
     
  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Let’s see how he develops he’s playing bad teams right now
     
  19. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Yes they should bench him until they play good teams. No good experience can come from this.
     
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  20. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Grier's death has been greatly exaggerated! - LOL
     
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  21. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    lol not what I meant or said I’m not overacting to playing bad teams I want to see them progress against top teams also. Just trying to prevent people from saying next Marino next God let just chill this team has issues that get exposed against good teams
     
  22. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Funny math? Come on now... 1(6th) - 2(12th and 2022 1st) = -1. We didn't get anyone for free...
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We got Waddle and a 2023 1st rounder off trading that single pick. People can twist the details all the want, but we ultimately moved back three spots, got the player we wanted and got another 1st rounder out of it.
     
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  24. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    You're evaluating it in a vacuum. We would have been better off staying at #3, or keeping the big haul of picks we got for trading down to #12. Trading back up to #6 for Waddle was a stupid move.
     
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  25. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    They would have taken Waddle at 3. I know you are going to say they shouldn't have but that is who they wanted. And if they had taken someone else at 3 you would be dunking on them as whoever that ended up being would be would probably look worse here than Waddle does.

    Best move would have been staying at 12 and making the move on draft day as possibly settling for Smith shouldn't have scared them. Worse move is staying at 3.
     
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  26. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I didn’t love the move either but at least he nailed the picks. That’s an improvement for me but maybe my expectations are really low for Grier.

    Would I rather have Parsons/Moore, Slater/Phillips or Slater/Moore and an additional 1st this year, probably, but I’m not gonna nit pick this draft anymore.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Zero percent hit chance taking a RB in round 7...that makes me leery since that's where we drafted Gaskin and he's clearly a starter. Maybe the chart is mostly accurate but that immediately jumped out at me.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    They're defining "hit" as starting at least half of your playing career. Gaskin has started only 16 out of 44 possible games so Gaskin isn't an exception yet. Having said that I'm sure that with large enough sample size nothing is truly 0%. They looked over a 10 year period, which is pretty large but not large enough so that nothing is 0%.
     
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  29. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    I'm not a fan of Grier overall but the talk about staying at 12 is theoretical only. I forget where but it was made clear that the only reason they moved down to twelve was because they had a path to move back up to six. They wouldn't have made the move down if they couldn't come back up. The whole thing was a 'package deal' of sorts. It should be seen as only one move.
     
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  30. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Grier has had some ups and downs, I'm fine with us keeping him as long as we get someone competent to coach/draft Olinemen. Grier is a moron when it comes to drafting Olinemen, he's awful at it. Its a massive issue. He makes some real head scratching picks. Hunter Long? A TE that doesn't even see the field at one of our deepest positions with a 3rd round pick? I mean that was a weird pick when it happened but to have the guy not even active most weeks, I mean....woof. We might be better off moving Grier up and getting a GM that has worked with teams that have built good Olines consistently to scout/draft those guys. I don't agree with Grier's philosophy on the RB position either, this team would be vastly different with a Jonathon Taylor on it.
     
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  31. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    The behind the scenes issues are the bigger potential problem. We will likely never know but whoever made Tua the starter over Fitz without telling the OC made a huge mistake. In addition, what's going on with the staff not sticking around?

    If Grier has anything to do with this and making the Dolphins a place where good coaches don't want to be then his ability to draft is irrelevant. If not, then whoever is behind that stuff needs to be dealt with.
     
  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, that makes more sense. Gaskin has been our clear #1 for the past three seasons, but he was also out hurt for a big stretch last year. Without the injury he would have hit above the 50% threshold, but I do understand why they did it that way. Too much to comb through if you're going to check every player for dressed-games, IR, etc.

    Anyway, that means I can have faith in that chart once again- thanks!
     
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  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The best possible path forward is with Flores being the long-term answer. So for me, I'm hoping we don't have to hire a new head coach next season and coordinators want to come to Miami after seeing us finish strong two seasons in a row. While I agree with you that there are front-office problems, winning really does cure all.

    A playoff berth and making a little noise in the post-season would go a really long way in helping this club develop long-term.
     
  34. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Grier has to go. I don't know how you guys are still on the fence about him. Yeah it seems like he had a good draft last year, but this comes after years of terrible drafting and personnel decisions, the tua/Watson drama, plus the toxic front office culture that has coaches not wanting to come here.

    There should be no question at this point that Grier is the biggest problem we have in the organization.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Let's wait and see how the season ends. If we end 9-8 or better we don't need another coach, and if Tua ends above average performance-wise there's no reason to seek another QB for at least one more year. The only issues then become Grier's drafting ability in 2022 and fixing the OL. Important issues sure, but much less important than finding the right HC and QB. Hit on those two and you have some time to fix the rest of the team. So I'd wait to pass judgment on Grier until after this season is over.
     
  36. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    The entire organization is guilty with the Watson stuff and you guys want the coaching situation to be his fault but you don't have evidence to make his fault.

    Griers real failure is the offensive line and rolling the dice on two injury prone receivers in a crucial year for Tua. Focus on real stuff not fan fiction.
     
  37. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I’ve been very critical of Grier and there have been several moves I don’t like including cutting Flowers, Van Noy and Karras.

    Objectively looking at the last 4 drafts(1st rounds):
    2021-
    Waddle- home run
    Phillips- hit with home run potential
    Holland- home run
    Eichenberg- starter
    Long- unknown
    2020-
    Tua- starter with injury issues, could be good but not a home run
    Jackson- complete bust
    Noah I- complete bust
    Davis- good starter
    Hunt- starter with potential
    Jones- depth to potential starter
    2019-
    Wilkins- starter who’s having his best year
    Dieter- was our best OL before injury
    AVG- 5th rounder solid starter
    2018-
    Minkah- home run for another team, pick wasted
    Gesicki- good starter
    Baker- starter

    so if we’re looking at hit rates:
    1st round- 5/7 or 71.4%
    2nd round- 4/5 or 80%, I think will be a 5/5 but Liam is really struggling but playing out of position
    3rd- 3/4 ie 75%

    I know the 2017 draft was a complete bust and we can’t forget that but I’d say his hit rate is pretty good over the last 4 years.
     
  38. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    His first round really couldn't have been better. Jaelan Phillips is having himself a really good season.
     
  39. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think how the rest of the year plays out says everything, right now we are playing well, coaching well and Tua looks like a potential franchise Qb. That is enough to save his job. IF we fall apart then he probably goes. At the end of the day, I just want someone in the mix that can fix the oline.
     
  40. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Captain Hindsight sees Herbert and Tua and claims that Grier should have taken Herbert.

    With some proper scrutiny over the past few weeks, short of a stellar showing against an injured Steeler team, Herbert has been mediocre recently.

    Tua is a smart player, he's accurate, and he has some mobility. He's kind of like a more accurate Ryan Tannehill without the back breaking INTs.
     

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