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Gulf Coast beware.. Gustav is coming

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by cnc66, Aug 26, 2008.

  1. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Hurricane Gustav is presently east of Port au Prince, Haiti. It is struggling with the mountains of Hispaniola, but will soon be over warm water again and is expected to be reassembled in a day or so. Please note that this storm is forecast to be a major hurricane by Friday, AND that almost everything points to it making landfall in the US as a major hurricane. From the panhandle of Florida to Brownsville Texas, everyone needs to be perked up and paying attention. If you live on the Gulf Coast, I urge you to follow this link, explore the page and then read Dr. Masters blog. He is a good forecaster.


    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

    [​IMG]

    Here are some comments Dr. Master had in his blog about Gustav;

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1043&tstamp=200808


    Here are the computer models.. spaghetti models.. the GFDL is what the NHC forecast is following at the moment.

    [​IMG]


    I really think this will be a terrible strong hurricane when it makes landfall. This is an earlier GFDL run, take note where this is at ... identicle landfall as Katrina, and as strong.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Celtkin

    Celtkin <B>Webmaster</b> Luxury Box

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    Nice analysis Marty.

    I hope for the sake of folks in the Louisiana / Mississippi area and for the folks in flooded areas in Florida that the storm wobbles and heads more westwardly than projected or that the storm weakens considerably before landfall.
     
  3. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    yeah, there's really no good coming from this.
    Florida's awfully wet, La. and Miss. can't even sniff another storm yet, and further west affects oil product just as that bubble is trying to burst.
     
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  4. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Marty, is this what you do for a living? You sure know your stuff
    (Scott)
     
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  5. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    The Cone of Uncertainty!! God, whichever weatherperson thought of that term is a ****ing genius, its awesome!

    Seriously though, looks like this is one to maybe worry about a little bit. I dont wish harm on anyone, but go northward Mr Gustav! To bad it wont go up into Georgia, they could use a good dousing from what I hear, though here in Texas we are a bit behind on rain for the year, weve had some wet weeks here recently so its not so bad atm at least where I am.
     
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  6. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Good morning.. Poco, no, it's just a passion.. like Florida pioneer history.. and they dovetail strongly. Many events in our past were influenced or changed due to hurricanes.

    Tex.. brother, a little dousing is VERY likely to come at Cat 3+

    welll, Gustav has slowed sooner, and more completely than forecast, this has slowed the expected intensification by half a day or so, but the NHC track STILL has this thing tracking into eats Texas, west LA. Sunday-Monday. There are some deviations forecast in the high pressure ridge that might allow Gustav to make a northerly turn sooner.. bringing Key West and the Florida Keys into the mess.. This one is a killer folks.. pay attention.
     
  7. Muck

    Muck Throwback Uniform Crusader Retired Administrator

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    Just in time for Memorial Day weekend.

    I don't wish this on anyone. But man I hope that thing doesn't turn like the last one did. It floods every time someone sneezes in my neighborhood. The last hurricane that brushed by us in 2004, I was swimming in the bay.....and I live two blocks inland. Each of the three cross-bay bridges had parts completely submerged.

    The Bay Area itself would get creamed by a direct hit. It's all peninsulas.

    [cynic]But the rebuilding effort would be lucrative.[/cynic]
     
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  8. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    The weather channel did a piece last week where they talked about areas most vulnerable. Not exactly on a Katrina level, but they all pretty much agreed that the Tampa area was near the top of the list.
     
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  9. joeydolfan

    joeydolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In the Central Florida region we are still dealing with the flooding from Fay and another hit from Gustav would be devastating. Half my front yard is still under water as I type this, the St Johns river, Lake Monroe and Lake Harney still have not even crested yet.

    Far be it from me to wish ill will on anyone else but in this case I am keeping my fingers crossed that this one stays well away from Florida.
     
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  10. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Sorry to hear that Joey, but grit your teeth, the next three weeks will be scary all around. I am more nervous about the track of Gustav today, than yesterday. The models have shifted east about fifty miles. If you compare yesterday to today, you will see what I mean.

    [​IMG]

    Here are the spaghetti models.

    [​IMG]

    I would point out that this is nearly the exact spot Katrina made landfall, I guess we would see what we learned. The LA. Governor is already in motion, we'll see how Nagin does. This is MUCH better than yesterdays forecast for NOLA, a major storm coming in to the west and bringing storm surge into the city. It would also seriously degrade the existing wetlands that used to temper the surge some.

    This is worse for Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Katrina brought historic storm surge levels to those areas, and the folks didn't get far enough inland. I pray they do this time. This isn't the only threat, we have several models bringing a major hurricane to the shores of south Florida Thursday week.

    George, I found a pretty cool map of Tampa bay in an archieved article from the St. Pete Times. It follows the same track as the unnamed hurricane that hit Tarpon Springs in 1921, the last time Tampa Bay took a direct hit from a hurricane. They had 17 ft. surge in some places, you will be able to "read" the impact better than me, I haven't a clue what is built where there. IMO George, landfall a little further north would be even worse. The Gulf didn't really pack the bay until just before landfall on the 1921 storm. A little north and the windfields is right up the bay from the Gulf.. slow mover even worse.


    1921 hurricane track at Tampa

    The oil folks are already taking advantage of us and are begining to raise prices. On Dr. Masters blog someone said the trains are really running long going north, getting rolling stock away from the gulf. Here is a chart that shows predicted effects on production.

    Special Report for The Oil Drum by Kinetic Analysis Corporation

    [​IMG]

    Here is a map of the rigs in the gulf;

    Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

    [​IMG]

    Please if you live on the Gulf, pay attention and get into action soon enough to matter.

    Now, to add to the anxiety, here is the ECMWF model
     
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  11. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin sigpicz.blogspot.com

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    Would New Orleans survive a direct hit from a category 3+ hurricane? They might just have to abandon the place if it gets destroyed again..

    Tragically sad if thats the case.. I cant imagine a place with as much history as New Orleans simply being abandoned, but I think another major hurricane just might do it.. Who in their right mind would want to settle down there after that?
     
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  12. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Thanks Marty.

    Dr. Masters stated that it could slow down prior to landfall. Wouldn't it get stronger going over the Gulf?

    Hurricane Fay didn't do much here in Orlando or at least not in my location. We had heavy rain but that's it. Hope everyone else did well through the storm.
     
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  13. Lt Dan

    Lt Dan Season Ticket Holder

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    Slowing down has nothing to do with it's strength. A slow moving hurricane is a nightmare
     
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  14. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Oh crap, your right. I read that wrong. I was thinking that he was talking about strength and not speed. Thanks Lt.
     
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  15. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod Staff Member

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    Good Lord, it is like Katrina II ... Thanks for the work cnc, let's hope that we're preparing for this storm now, and that we've learned some good lessons.
     
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  16. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    It has slowed its intensity down to a low grade Tropical Storm at 45 MPH, but that's just helping out with the current damages.
     
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  17. Lt Dan

    Lt Dan Season Ticket Holder

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    That was all expected and forecasted....He is on his way back up now
     
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  18. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    good morning gang. Alen, depending on the "where" and for "how long" a stall can intensify, or deflate a storm. If the storm sits on a spot with shallow hot water, it very quickly riles up the water and pulls up colder water to the surface. If the potential is great, ie, deep warm water, then indeed a storm can get stronger.

    Gustav has tricked the forecasters and moved further south than expected. This will not affect the long range models much, but it does forecast a slower intensification. Almost all the models have moved a little west for landfall, I would expect this to happen every day as the steering mechanisms change. Here is this mornings five day forecast.

    [​IMG]



    Something that ALL of the east coast needs to watch, especially Florida, is tropical depression 8.. which will likely become tropical storm Hanna before the day is done. This storm could be upon Florida's shores a week from today. Here is the current forecast track;

    [​IMG]

    Please pay attention.

    George, found a scary model this am.. This one has Gustav sitting on Tampa Bay stalled..

    cmc 2008082800 Forecast slp Java Animation
     
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  19. Fin Fan In Cali

    Fin Fan In Cali Dolphin fan since 1970 Luxury Box

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    Thanks Marty. I watching some news last night, and the weather gal here said the water temperatures will be in the 80's therefore it could stir up into something big once it gets closer to shore. May everyone be safe.:wink2: I was watching another advisory from New Orleans, and they were saying when the word to evacuate is given, that means get out right away. The lady that was speaking said to you people that have not been through of these, she said that is the time to get out, because there will be severe damage. I believe she was referring to the new people that may have moved there since the last disaster.
     
  20. finswin56

    finswin56 Get a mop

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    No doubt. I was just trying to be optimistic for Hati. Looks like Jamaica is staring a Hurricane straight in the face now.
     
  21. opfinistic

    opfinistic Braaaaains!

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    Great Job Marty! Good luck to any who are unfortunate enough to be in Gustav's path.
     
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  22. Big E

    Big E Plus sized porn star

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    I dont think La. is any more ready for a hurricane than they were when Katrina came through. Could be another potential disaster.
     
  23. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm gonna evacuate NOLA on Sunday. I ain't taking no chances.
     
  24. Lt Dan

    Lt Dan Season Ticket Holder

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    Of course, since I am heading to Miami for the opener a week from tomorrow
     
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  25. Lt Dan

    Lt Dan Season Ticket Holder

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    Hanna is officially up and running
     
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  26. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    I don't know Eric. This Governor won't refuse help because he hates Bush. The Feds are closer, and are being cooperated with this time, so maybe the people will get out in time. Oh, and you can bet that knucklehead nagin won't abandon his people this time. I can hardly believe they reelected him..

    Be interesting to see how they protect property from looting, and who stay's anyway. I would be suspicious of all able bodied that could.. but didn't leave.

    Here is a GREAT interactive animated storm surge link of NOLA;

    Flash Flood, the inundation of New Orleans

    and the truth is, NOLA got off easy. The storm created less than predicted storm surge because Katrina shifted east. This caught the gulf coast not nearly as prepared as they should have been.

    Mapping Katrina's Storm Surge, Associated Press 10.08.05

    It is just my opinion, but I believe thousands of lives were spared when Katrina shifted east and spared NOLA from 30 feet of ocean, with waves on top of that in the city.


    All I really care about are the lives. NOLA folks live in a fishbowl, I live on the shore of Indian River, others live on the shore of bays and bayous. Sooner or later we will all pay a property price for being so close to water.. it is nearly universal, live by water and every so often it gets you. When we forget this truth, nature reminds us.
     
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  27. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Gustav from Gran Piedra Cuba radar current at 1140est+-

    [​IMG]
     
  28. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This thread is great, lets not muck it up with a bunch of political half-truths. I'm not gonna get into the blame game between Bush/Blanco/Nagin, but lets just say Bush wasn't chomping at the bit to help out the people of New Orleans.

    And as for the re-election of Nagin, he was able to win because all the Republicans in town voted for him, cause they hate the Landrieu family. Politics down here are WACKY.

    I just had to put in my 2 cents.
     
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  29. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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  30. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    This is one frame from the HWRF model.. 168 knots.. that's 193 mph...

    HWRF MSLP, SST, 900 mb Wind Speed

    [​IMG]

    just consider

    F3
    Severe tornado 158-206 mph
    Roof and some walls torn off well constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted
     
  31. bg34

    bg34 Junior Member

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    My dad lives in Mobile, AL. It looks like the projected path would just graze him then? He lives right on the water too.
     
  32. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Wow....

    Marty, I am very impressed with what insight you have to offer on this and other Hurricanes. I also had my curiosity perked by your Florida Pioneer interest...might you open a forum sometime talking about Florida's pioneer history...I think that would be fascinating....

    Truly another example of why TP.C is the greatest site on the web...

    Quick question....my sister is currently on her honeymoon in Negril, Jamaica...have you heard anything of what Jamaica is going through at this time....boy the showed a flood of tropical disturbances forming off of Africa...looks like we will have a very active, potentially devastating three weeks ahead of us...
     
  33. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    bg, I'm sure your Dad is heads up to this. The GFDL track, which has the best record and is the one the NHC favors has the storm making landfall in the worse possible spot for Mobile Bay.. did you look at the NOLA storm surge animation?

    Flash Flood, the inundation of New Orleans

    Here are the current spaghetti models.

    [​IMG]

    vt... go here;

    Kingston, Jamaica

    and navigate the page and you will be able to check on the weather. Presently, the eye is over eastern Jamaica, BUT, it is not yet a hurricane so the wind won't be too bad.
     
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  34. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Thanks Marty.

    That doesn't look good at all for New Orleans and other coastal states. Hope everyone is getting ready for the storm.

    The TD 8 looks like its going to be a scary one. Looking at the projection, it could very well end up going right through the middle or just below the middle of Florida. :scared:
     
  35. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    You are welcome Alen.

    TD 8 is now Hanna. The ECMWF model yesterday had Hanna hitting Miami, and running up the spine of the state much like Fay. Today, they have it entering the GoM and hitting NOLA. That would be TWO major storms in five days.. and there is yet ANOTHER one behind Hanna.. that will be Ike.

    ECMWF model 8 28 2008 1544est
     
  36. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Yeh...Hanna could be a problem for Florida...

    The question I have....does a jet stream that could deflect one of these storms..actually make it worse for the other....I know how Florida used to be buffered by a dipping stream that would deflect potenial storms away from the main land...but would such a situation create a disastrous atmosphere for Gustav?
     
  37. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    You know..not to be a fear monger....but TWO hurricanes hitting NOLA or anywhere on the Gulf Coast...

    That would really put a hurtin on an already hurtin economy. Granted, this is the least of our immediate problems...health and safety are first and foremost..but there could be some very wide ranging affects from the predicted weather about to hit the USA.
     
  38. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    In the summer time, entrenched high pressure tends to hold the stream to the north, but you will see effects as a front, and the stream push towards the GoM through central US. A system like that flattened out the nw quadrant of Katrina and pushed it east sparing NOLA from the brunt. Predicting the steering currents that effect tropical systems is for the most part educated guessing, that why the "official" track misses so often,,it is WAY complex and not completly understood. If it were to push one storm into another the conflicting shear from the outflow would damage both and kill one.

    On Florida history.. you would be hard pressed to find someone more enthusiastic than me. It is my passion and given the chance I will yack your head off. I would love to have a Florida history thread but have doubted it would be of enough interest to sustain itself without me boring everyone to death. Malcolm set me up with a little website that I have neglected, peruse it if ya want;

    Florida History Hunter
     
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  39. Big E

    Big E Plus sized porn star

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    Keep me posted on Hanna Marty, I will be in S. Fla and Tampa next week, and I'm leaving out next Sat....maybe.,...lol.
     
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  40. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I'd be interested about Florida's history and the history of the US overall, as long as it includes talks of indians. They interest me the most.
     

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