I know its still April, but Yahoo leagues open in 5-6 weeks, and I've been trying to keep the mentality that fantasy football is won in the offseason. I'm going to leave this poll open until late August when my draft takes place. Its a PPR (points per reception) league. I get to keep 2 player this year. Andre Johnson is a 100% lock to be one of them. I need help deciding on the other. Andre Johnson (Keeper #1) Candidates for Keeper #2 Eddie Royal - WR- Denver - Could he be a better version of Wes Welker in Josh McDaniels offense? Will they have a QB that can get him the ball 100 times? Anthony Gonzalez - WR - Indianapolis - Does the exit of Marvin Harrison put Gonzo into a prime position to become a fantasy starter? Reggie Bush - RB - New Orleans - Will he stay healthy? Will Pierre Thomas continue to be a touchdown vulture? Jonathan Stewart - RB - Carolina - Will he get enough touches to merit keeping/starting? Ronnie Brown - RB - Miami - Will he prove the critics wrong and finally have a productive season from start to end? Felix Jones - RB - Dallas - Will he stay healthy? Will he continue where he left off last season, after scoring a touchdown in nearly every game? Matt Cassel - QB - Kansas City - Does he have the players around him to maintain his status as a 3500 yard passer? Can he make the reads/throws that are required in Todd Haley's offense?
Actually Id go with Matt because with that defense Im guessing they will be throwing the ball alot. Ecspecially if Tony G. is not traded by then. And Dwayne Bowe is a very good player. Lean: Cassel
This is a really tough call. None really stand out as obvious keeper material but all (except Reggie Bush, IMO) could have breakout seasons. Cross Reggie Bush off your list right away. He could be productive, but he's peaked in this league. Good for a PPR leauge, but I don't see him scoring many TDs this season. He just doesn't have the upside the rest of the crop has. Stewart, Jones and Cassel worry me. Stewart and Jones won't be starting options so you can't count on them. Jones will have some great games when he breaks a long one, but he'll also stands a good chance to notch some goose eggs. I'm not sold on Cassel. I think he's going to prove to be a mediocre QB who was blessed with great weapons and coaching (pains me to say that). So that leaves us Ronnie, Gonzo, and Royal. Out of the two WRs I'd take Gonzo, just because the QB option in Indianapolis is about as solid as it gets. He's also entering his 3rd year if I'm not mistaken. Gonzo vs. Ronnie. I'm really not sure how fast RBs will fly off your board. You'll have to factor how many teams in your league are likely to keep 2 RBs. If more than a few are you might better keep Ronnie or you could be struggling to find productive RBs when you pick. Hard to say how many chance Ronnie will get in our offense. But he'll be healthier than last year and Ricky is now one year older. But Cobbs is likely to steal some carries as well. Gonzo could also have a great year. You also need to factor who is more likely to slide to you when you pick. If you think you can keep Gonzo and have a better chance of Ronnie getting back down to you, then maybe Gonzo makes more sense. Bottom line, Ronnie or Gonzo. Since this is a Dolphins message board, I'm picking Ronnie in your poll.
I like your thoughts on the matter. My tentative final 3 right now are Royal, Cassel, and Gonzo. Ronnie, Stewart, and Felix are far off either. Its really a tough call. I picked up as many potential keepers as possible before the end of the year so I had a better crop to choose from. I guess the Colts draft plans will help me decide on Gonzo. And while Ronnie, Stewart, and Felix are likely good for 10 TDs each, those TDs will probably be their only production. Royal had 91 catches as a rookie, and also adds return yards. Denvers direction at QB will be a major factor in this decision as well. I do think Orton will be good for Royal. Orton is the Jay Fiedler of the Bears. He maintained a winning record, and was a pretty good passer for the most part. A speedy possession receiver like Royal would help him quite a bit. Time will tell. Thanks, for the feedback, and the vote.
on a side note. i have made it to the championship in this league in each of the past two seasons, and lost both times. Picking the right keeper is crucial. Last year we only got to keep one guy, and I kept Andre Johnson. he turned out to be the 2nd highest scoring keeper in our league.
Bro, did you see the numbers Tyler Thigpen was putting up in KC last year?? I think Cassel is the real thing and his stat line will be about like this. 3,893 yards 32 TD's 10 INT's Guess the real question is what Qb's will be available that can produce? Maybe a good one wont be "kept" but I like Cassel myself. Dont trust Royal w/o Cutler Ronnie never gets alot of carries Jones is coming off a bad injury Stewart has a 1500 yard back with 20TD's on his team Reggie Bush no friggin way Now Gonzalez would have me thinking hard but I think you could do better drafting a good WR.
Matt Cassel is interesting and depending on your QB might be the pick. Ronnie Brown is going to get carries and with this new and improved oline should be a top selection. If anything these two above are much more tradable. Ronnie Brown ability to stay healthy and Matt Cassel with a new scheme are huge concerns. Anthony Gonzalez is a wild-card. He could become a huge part of the Colts offense without Marvin Harrison. However with all that I would take Ronnie Brown.
Gish, how does you league set up? Do you give up a corresponding draft pick to the round that person was selected in? How many QBs, RBs, WRs, etc.?
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR Can only keep players that werent drafted in the first three rounds the previous year. If I keep 2 WRs, then I'll be taking a RB with my first two picks.
As much of a homer as I am, and I love Ronnie in fantasy, I said Reggie Bush. Royal has qb issues, Stewart is in a time share, as are Ronnie and Felix. Cassel could be a good choice, depends on what qb's get for points. If it's 6 pts/td and 20yds per point I think I take him. Most leagues are 4pts/td and/or 25yds/pt though. Reggie is going to catch 60-70 passes, and also contribute 600-700 yds rushing, hard to beat that. He may even through in 8 tds or so. And you know their offense is going to be full speed ahead again. Here's how I would rank them: Bush Cassel Ronnie Gonzalez Stewart Royal Jones
yea, i dont see the hate for reggie. while im personally not a fan, i think in a ppr league he'd actually be pretty valuable. but, ronnie brown is the man so i voted for him.
This is a tough call (IMO) Gish. I can see why you're asking for input. And, while I didn't submit a vote, at least not yet, I will give you some input for your consideration. But, let me first preface my assessment by saying that unless we're talking about the top 2-3 guys at either QB or WR, I don't believe in keeping players at either position. It's just my personal philosophy that I can get value at both positions in the draft (more easily than I can at RB). So, I will always lean towards keeping a RB over a WR and/or a QB. Which eliminates Cassel, Royal and Gonzalez. Now, I will say this...I love Gonzalez as a sleeper this year. Not a deep sleeper, a snoozer if you will. Think 4th/5th rounder in a 12 team redraft. Think he's gonna bust out big time this season. But, would I want to use a keeper pick on him? I'll come back to this point. OK, every back you listed has question marks. Bush used to be widely considered to be worth his weight in gold in a PPR. That was before he couldn't stay healthy enough to stay on the field. And, I think it's been proven, that he isn't a feature back. Add Pierre Thomas into the equation, and I personally would cross him off the list first. Don't get me wrong, I was a big Bush fan his first couple of years. But, after last season, I just think he lacks toughness. That game against the Bears late last season really called that out. And, I just remember telling myself I'd never draft him again (in a redraft). Having said that, he's been quoted as saying he wants to prove he is a feature back. So, who knows? Maybe he'll be motivated to have a real bounce back season. He was one of the top FF players prior to injury last season. Which leaves Stewart, Jones and Brown. Every one of them is in a RBBC, which knocks them all down a peg. But, it's Brown versatility (Wildcat) and pass catching skills that I think give him an edge here (because we're talking about a PPR). Now, let's look at each backfield; whereas Stewart has DWill to compete with, Jones has Marion The Barbarian and Tashard Choice. And, Ronnie has Ricky (and now Pat White) to compete with. Prior to Saturday, I would given the edge to Ronnie. But, assuming White gets significant PT (at least as far as the Wildcat goes), then that knocks Brown down a notch. Balancing my first point with Brown's pass catching skills with this point brings me back to a push though. The thing with Stewart is he's either feast or famine. Go back and look at last year's game logs and you'll see he either blew up or was a complete non factor. I believe this was done on purpose to keep opposing defenses not knowing who to prepare for. Based on the overall success, I'm expecting more of the same this season. OK, so let's focus a little more on Ronnie. This will be his second year removed from a torn ACL. It also is a contract year (if I am understanding his contract situation correctly). You gotta love contract year guys. He'll be playing his a$$ off for a big payday, either with us or someone else. But again...I don't know the impact White will have on Ronnie's PT and stats. Honestly, as I am assessing all three, I'm rethinking adding Bush back into the equation. As injury prone as he has been, if he can stay healthy, and is used as a complement to Thomas, I think he's as strong a consideration as all three of the others. Equally, rethinking my philosophy on keeping RB's over WR's and QB's, I wonder if we tiered these guys down far enough where all of them are starting to fall into that Gonzo/Royal level? I don't think so. But, they aren't that far off either. OK, so where are we? Cassel? No. New coaching staff, new team. Besides, I think you can get equal (or better) value in the draft. Pass. Royal? No. New coach. New QB. Pass. Gonzo? Man, this could be a bold choice. Assuming he takes on the #2 WR role for a team like Indy, and with Peyton throwing him the rock, he could have a huge season. Maybe. Jones? I like his potential, but I question how much PT he'll get in a crowded backfield. And, I just haven't seen enough to justify him being a keeper. He's early mid-round talent in a redraft IMO. So, no...pass. Stewart? No. He's either boom or bust from week to week, and he isn't featured as a receiver. Pass. Which leaves Brown vs. Bush. Hmmm... Well, if you put a gun to my head, I'd have to lean towards Brown. But, I will admit...part of that is the Dolfan in me coming out. But, when I add it all up (and, I'm even factoring what should be a very tough schedule into my way of thinking), I just think he has the best chance (and most potential) to be a fantasy stud this season. And, if Ricky goes down due to injury (not that I expect or want that to happen), his value goes up exponentially. So, in review: Soundest choice; Brown. Sexiest choice (based on talent and PPR); Bush. Highest risk/reward choice; Gonzalez. Good luck Gish!
thanks alot for taking the time to write all that. another thing that will facotr into this equation, is who my opponents keep. Whatever position is kept the most is probably the one i wont keep.
Gman pretty much nailed it. Royal losing cutler cuts his keeper value severely imo. As it is hes a #2 target on his team which makes him not worthy of keeper status unless hes got ridiculous stats which he doesnt. Jones and Stewart wouldnt even be a consideration unless Barber or Deangelo Williams gets traded or cut for some silly reason. Im not sold on Cassel. The OL will be average and the targets after Bowe and LJ are nothing to write home about. You can probably get him back in round 5 or 6 if you want him that bad. Bush would be a great choice if he had a better run blocking OL. Plus you have to consider hes on a finesse passing team that at times falls behind very quick and has to throw a 50x a game. This is fine if he weren't a running back with part of his value dependent on what he does as a runner. Not to mention the fact that Pierre Thomas may actually be better in that part of the game. The signs here point to Gonzalez or Brown. Durability always worries me with Brown but man you just know that one of these seasons he is going to have that 1400 yard bust out year with like 15 TD's and with the OL looking as big and nasty as it is this just may be that year. People forget how Ronnie Brown was magnificent during 07 as a receiver and if thats the allure to Bush then it has to carry similar allure with Brown who is a much better runner. Gonzalez may actually be the safer choice here though. Part of being a starting receiver for the Colts is that with Manning as your QB you're basically a given for 1000 yards and 8 TD's. It may come by accident, you may get pegged with a football right in the facemask and have to take it to the house that way but its going to happen. If Brandon Stokely did it, I know Anthony Gonzalez is likely to. Still the reward is greatest with Brown and that is who I would select.
