Great post. However, around here stats mean nothing unless it shows how bad henne is or how good Matt Ryan or mark Sanchez are. Lol

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Bad games = Cleveland & at NY Jets. I could probably throw both NE games in there too. But the Monday night game was a decent effort, just w/ a capital B bad decisions, and the 2nd NE game was a clusterfukk for the whole team.

 

I think I even got a bad game for the second Pats game.

 

Okay, we were 5-4 in his good games meaning the team let us down in 4 games when Henne couldn't be blamed. 2 bad games Cleveland and Patriots. We were 0-2. Cleveland game, he had a lot to do with us losing. More than any other player IMO in terms of direct bad plays. Now, that's just plays. There's also the fact that there was no running game that could take the ball out of his hand on a bad day and the Henning effect. The Henning effect is stated as follows:

"The further a team is from the red zone, the more aggressive it is. As the team gets closer to the red zone, the offense compacts and disregards the end zone."

Better put, when Henning gets to the 30 he starts attacking the 25 (Thanks GMJohnson). In the Patriots game, If you type your name in PFF, you probably got a bad grade as well.

In the average games, we were 2-2. In two games the team was good enough to win. In the other two they were not. So, there were NO games we won in spite of the QB. There were 4 games we lost even with good QB play, and we were average when our QB was average. Our team was tied to our QB play. According to this, our team was so bad, Our QB being good was only good for +1 win and our QB had to overcome our team mates to win 5 games.

But that's still wrong because this is a team game.

 

Well SB, the real question should be is there a matrix between the running game going well in the good games, and in the average games, and disappearing in the poor games?

I probably already know the answer, but it highlights how the collapse of the running game, more then any other single factor, led to the poor finish in 10, in 09 the defense was garbage, the running game was outstanding, I'd think about 85% of his "good" games we had either 100 yds rushing or a high YPC/TD production.

 

Let's find out if you do:

Ronnie Brown's Logs

Buff - 65 yds 1 TD 5.0 ypc
Jets - 54 yds 4.9 ypc
GB - 73 yds on 3.8 ypc
Pitt - 14 yds on 1.6 ypc
Cinci - 61 yds 3.8 ypc
Balt - 59 yds 1 TD 6.6 ypc but only 16 carries. There was no ri
Tenn - 11 yds 0.9 ypc 1 TD
Oak - 85 yds 3.5 ypc
Det - 37 yds 3.1 YPC 1 TD

In Henne's good games, Brown had a total of 459 yards, 4 TD's, and averaged 51 YPG, 3.7 YPC, and 0.44 TD/G.

Now on to Ricky Williams:

Buff - 62 yds 3.4 ypc
Jets - 28 yds 4 ypc
GB - 64 yds 4.9 ypc
Pitt - 48 yds 4.4 ypc
Cinci - 47 yds 1 TD 5.2 ypc
Balt - 1 yd 0.5 ypc
Tenn - 64 yds 5.8 ypc
Oak - 95 yds 4.8 ypc 1 TD (he had a 45 yard run...or I think 2)
Det - 71 yds 5.1 ypc

In Henne's good games, Williams had a total of 480 yards, 2 TD, and averaged 53.3, 4.2 ypc, and 0.22 TD/G.

Williams had the better games of the two. If those were their numbers for the full season, Brown would have 816 yards and 7 TD's while Williams would have 853 yards and 3/4 TD's. for a total of 1,669 yards and 9 TD's on the year. We ended up with 1,643 yards and 8 TD's. Or, in other words, they were no better or worse in those games on average.

 

a few weeks ago, I compared Henne's QB rating when the team rushed for 100 or more, to when they didn't and his rating was nearly the same as I recall. Mid 70s in both cases.
Someone else had what may be a better way to compare, and that being number of rushing attempts. Henne's QB rating when the team has 25 attempts or more and when they don't. I cannot recall the differences though and don't feel like figuring it out right now.

 

Attempts
Buff - 31
Jets - 18
GB - 32
Pitt - 20
Cinci - 25
Balt - 11
Tenn - 23
Oak - 44
Det - 26

Average of 25.5 attempts per game. Now time to try some statistical analysis. Yes, I actually like number crunching.

Here's a line graph. Pretty sporadic IMO:



TI-83 Regression line incoming...

Regression line...no correlation. R-squared = .02...

I think I got a bit too trigger happy and that test meant nothing anyway....

Hmmm...maybe it is relevant. Because of that test, I can say that We did not make a conscious effort to tailor attempts to his success. Although that might be putting the cart before the horse. Then again this is football and this is Henning so this doesn't take into account the situation on the ground. Heck, look at the Baltimore running game fiasco. Conform to my numbers NFL!

 

Eh point of order Sir!

The Raiders game featured a match up vs a depleted Raiders secondary as Ashmougha was playing with a bad ankle, and we took advantage.

And it seems to me, that R+R rushing for a combined 100 yds seems to be the thresh hold, NOT THE WHOLE STORY mind you, which is why I mentioned 85%,

The other thing with Henne is as sparano mentioned "impulse interceptions", which is where stats fail, for example the Detriot game, Great first half, miserable second half, from a stats pov it shows up as 1 complete game, the reality is, night and day between first half and second half.

That sort of thing is why I look askance on relying heavily on stats, as Sparano apparently does, they do not tell the whole story and slicing the information down to the nth degree "in the 3rd qtr of games when Ronnie rushed for 20 yds such and such happened".

 

Total Rushing Yards
BUFF - 132
NYJ - 84
GB - 150
PITT - 64
CIN - 137
BAL - 73
TEN - 88
OAK - 186
DET - 65

5/9 under 100. 56% of the games Henne played well in, we had under 100 total rushing yards. 60% or 3/5 of those were under 80 yards. Correlations...I'm not seeing them.

Visualize:



It's apparently just too many variable to pin down one key to success. Especially because you're not playing the same teams, same talent, in the same place, against the same coaches every week. The "key" to winning changes week to week and the only way to make sure you can win is to be a complete team.

 

Pad, you know I'm not only going by stats man. Watching it again has helped me. But what you said is interesting:

Statistically, he had a bad game. If you watch the game, you know that's not the case. PFF assigns those grades by watching the tape, not reading the stats. They watched both the BAL and DET games with the INT's that weren't his fault and decided he had "positive" games.

 

Exactly KM, that is a part of the reason why I'm not much of a fan of relying on Stats, the game plays differently then the stats reveal at times.

 

But you went the stats route by going for the combined 100 rushing yards bro..:wink2:. The way I see it, for the Dolphins, there is no magic number of rushing yards a RB needs for Henne to play well. Nor attempts. It doesn't matter how strong the Defense is (GB, Pitt, NYJ, Balt). The wins may correlate more to the numbers, but the play of the Dolphins QB does not.

 

Eh, Sparano has some crazy record like 14-2 when a rusher goes over 100 yds, at the end of the day, it is all trickery, for example Henne stats wise was not good in the 2nd jets game, yet we won, he threw 45 times vs the Bills, and we lost.

Had that thread awhile back on Randomness, boiled down to 16 games being to small of a sample to make much out of them in terms of statististical relevance and 42% of the game boils down to...pure chance from a Stats pov, which is yet another reason why I prefer the eyeball test, you know what you see so to speak.

 

Merely being consistent SB, improve the running game along with a healthy Oline, and Henne's flaws are mitigated.

 

Look at it this way SB:

This is what Sparano said Henne must improve on:

-4th qtr completion percentage
-better accuracy on deep passes
-more production in the Red Zone, moving away from a FG mentality
-less impulse interceptions

Now add:

-stronger running game in the 4th qtr meaning Henne won't have to throw as often
-more big plays from the running game meaning deep passes are not the only means of explosive plays
-more production in the running game in the red zone meaning it is not all on Henne in the RZ

The one thing they cannot help Henne with is impulse interceptions, however 3 of the 4 flaws will be addressed from outside of Chad Henne.

 

Except in the Detroit game, Sparano said afterwards that Henne made very few mistakes and cited a couple of examples of which plays were mistakes. The upshot was that on the interceptions at the end, Henne made the read like he was taught and the pass was fairly accurate. The problem was that the defense knew what was coming so they anticipated the play. I applaud Southbeach for the attempt, but the problem is that on many of the INTs we can only guess whether Henne was at fault or not. My read was that about half of the INTs were the result of either bad play calling or a mistake by the receiver. If Daboll does a better job and the receivers do a better job then Henne's stats may look remarkably better even if Henne is no better than he was last year. Conversely, if those areas don't improve while Henne does eliminate those "impulse" INTs then the improvement stat-wise will only be about 2 or 3 INTs.

 

Well, I'd like to see Henne be a better Quarterback in the technical sense Rafie, play action fakes that work, cut down on the tipped passes, learn how to slide his feet in the pocket to buy time, I kind of put a lot of those deficiencies on David Lee tbh about it, Henne has more then enough starts to have shown he mastered at least those basics of playing Qb.

Seemed to me that Henne played as if he were told "don't worry about that stuff, just throw the football well"

I'd like to think with all of the "self coaching" time he has to work with ATM he would have at the very least improved his PA fakes, the drill is really simple, an offensive player can play the LB and critique him on his technique.

Hopefully they are not confusing "activity" with "effective training"

 

The lack of good play action fakes always pissed me off. I see that as one of those things that reflect how it was practiced. It seems clear to me that it was never emphasized in practice. IMO that is incompetent for an offense that is supposed to be run first. That is the kind of attention to detail that has to come from your OC. It's great if you have a Peyton Manning, but most teams don't. I see that as the OC's job. Sliding the feet is on the QB. I think part of that is Henne's poor athleticism. I don't think he'll ever have great feet. Tipped passes is on the QB, OL and the play calling. The QB has to see the passing lanes, the OL has to hit those rushers to keep those hands down and the OC can't make the play calls so predictable.

 

Dead on. Offensively the attention to detail was awful. And it wasn't just Henne's play fakes. The RBs half assed their fakes, the OL didnt fire off like it was a run play, they immediately stood up to pass protect. I don't think Henne used a hard count all year. When opposing DL jumped offsides our OL stayed put, didnt snap the ball or flinch to draw the neutral zone penalty. There were sooooo many signs of poor coaching all I can do is smile at the fact that Hennings *** is gone forever.

 

Agreed on those points and examples. The truth is I find it odd b/c while Henning was always predictable and locked into one way, he did used to focus on the details better. I really think that Henning came back out of retirement b/c Parcells asked, he got full power and the money was too much to turn down, but he just didn't have the motivation he used have. I think he really just mailed it in particularly during the off-season. During the season he had a couple of good games, but the vast majority were just awfully called games. It was one of the worst coordinator years I have ever seen.

 

What, exactly, classifies a game as 'good' according to PFF grades?

 

I once asked Marino why he didn't focus on his play fakes and he told me that he felt he needed the extra time to read the defense. As great as Marino was, he had his weaknesses, one in particular was that he was not great at post-snap reads.

 

In one of my posts I intentionally changed it to "positive". Beginning to think maybe you could have been wrong?

 

How in the world is 0 considered "average"? There were 34 QBs in the NFL that received an overall grade of "green" last season. There was only one (Derek Anderson) that received a "Red" grade. Using this methodology, Mark Sanchez had 12 good games, and 3 bad games. Is Mark Sanchez a good QB now?

ETA: if were using this methodology, its clear to me that Jason Campbell is a very good QB.

 

But what exactly does a positive PFF grade tell us, considering there are so many QBs with positive grades?

 

Thats not really an average.

If you want to find out what the average is, all you need to do is tally up each individual game, and calculate the average grade they received. I would venture to guess the "average" would be a lot higher than 0.

 

IMO if Henne plays at exactly the same level as last year but we got improvements in the offensive play calling, the support players on offense, and the continued development of the defense then I see no reason to believe that we can't go at least as far as the Jets did last year.

 

Difference being, Marino's offense was not the run first style we currently have had for 10 yrs SB, the PA motion means more for this offense then it meant for the Marino eras'.

Now on a positive note, Henne did okay for such a limited scheme, the real question is did he outgrow it, or did the NFL figure him out?