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His'n's Purely Mathematical Power Rankings - Week 8

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by His'nBeatYour'n, Oct 28, 2008.

  1. His'nBeatYour'n

    His'nBeatYour'n Glass Ceiling Repairman

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    Dec 10, 2007
    New York
    I've been using, and constantly tweaking, a power ranking formula for the past few years to help me in my office pool. Basically I wanted to help myself look past the record and reputation of a team and place a little more value on the strength of their opponents.

    Using a formula that is probably approaching BCS complexity, sheer ridiculousness and inaccuracies, I share it here for your amusement as well as collective scorn and ridicule.

    ------------------------------

    Included is the "power points" each team has earned this year based on who they've beaten, when, who they've lost to, and whether or not they've covered the spread. In () is last week's ranking. Enjoy.

    For the first time, I'm very happy with how the rankings turned out, there are less surprises and less things for me to explain. The good teams are starting to separate themselves, and those with questions around them are starting to answer them. I look at the top 10 and I have no problem with these being the top 10 teams in football. And one of them I guarantee you won't make the playoffs. See #10 to find out why.

    1 Tennessee Titans 12.44 (2)
    Despite being the only undefeated team since week 5, this is Tennessee's first time at #1. They've earned it, and unless they choke, they may remain here for quite sometime. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year (by this year's records, not 2007's) Their opponents for the year are a combined 46-67 (.407) though it will get tougher from here on out. They only beat one team over .500 so far, 4-3 Baltimore. But they do have three 4-3 teams over the next four weeks. They will continue to get tested.
    2 New York Giants 11.04 (7)
    The defending Super Bowl champs and every Miami Dolphins fan's second favorite team has finally moved up into what many were arguing was their rightful place. Hey, they finally beat a good team. But it's going to get really tough from here on out. They have a very tough November and December. Of their remaining 9 opponents. Only Minnesota is below .500 at 3-4 and they play in the absolute best division in football.
    3 Washington Redskins 10.80 (3)
    This team just keeps on winning, and that player the Dolphins will ultimately get for Jason Taylor is getting to be lower and lower in the 2nd round.
    4 Carolina Panthers 10.71 (4)
    If I wasn't doing this mathematically, this would be the team I would have at least at number 2 right now. They've been inconsistent in their two losses, but when they've been good, they've been good.
    5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.59 (1)
    Last week's #1 put up a tough fight against Dallas, but it's hard to keep a desperate team down.
    6 Arizona Cardinals 7.96 (5)
    My formula doesn't punish teams severely for losing to good teams, so last week's loss to #4 Carolina has Arizona down just 1 spot.
    7 New England Patriots 7.83 (10)
    It was tight early, and St. Louis almost pulled off their 3rd straight upset, but the Patsies pulled it out and moved up. The good news? They have heated, beaten and desperate rival Indy up next week on Sunday night, followed by 3 straight division games ending at Miami. This is book ended with a game against Pittsburgh. This team will face some real tests, and IMHO won't pass.
    8 Dallas Cowboys 7.75 (15)
    Desperation pays off, and they pull out a much needed victory and move back into the top 10.
    9 Pittsburgh Steelers 7.58 (8)
    My formula doesn't punish teams that severely who lose to good teams. They fought tough against #2 New York, and only fall one spot.
    10 Philadelphia Eagles 7.46 (12)
    This is the 4th NFC EAST team in the top 10. That is without a doubt the best division in football. Sadly, now matter how good the fourth place team does, they won't make the playoffs because there are only 2 wild card spots.
    11 Buffalo Bills 6.73 (6)
    12 Atlanta Falcons 5.93 (9)
    13 Chicago Bears 5.82 (11)
    14 Baltimore Ravens 5.68 (17)
    15 New Orleans Saints 5.66 (19)
    16 Miami Dolphins 5.45 (24)
    The biggest jump this week belongs to our beloved Miami Dolphins. And in case you are counting, they are the 6th ranked AFC team. At 2-1 in the divison, with NE, BUF, and NYJ having a tougher final 9 games than their first 7, and Miami having an easier final 9, the Dolphins should not be counted out.
    17 Green Bay Packers 4.95 (13)
    18 Denver Broncos 4.66 (14)
    19 New York Jets 4.14 (23)
    20 Cleveland Browns 3.91 (25)
    21 Minnesota Vikings 3.83 (20)
    22 San Diego Chargers 3.72 (16)
    23 Indianapolis Colts 3.58 (22)
    24 St. Louis Rams 3.26 (21)
    25 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.69 (18)
    The biggest drop this week down 7 spots. Though they may get healthy and rebound with back to back games against 0-8 Cincinnati and 0-7 Detroit. The NFC NORTH and AFC SOUTH are each getting healthy by having 3 games on their season's schedule against win less teams.
    26 Houston Texans 2.07 (27)
    27 Oakland Raiders 0.75 (26)
    28 Seattle Seahawks 0.60 (30)
    29 Kansas City Chiefs -0.15 (28)
    30 San Francisco 49ers -0.96 (29)
    31 Cincinnati Bengals -3.71 (31)
    They are bad, no doubt about it, but they also have the toughest 2008 schedule this year. Only two of their opponents so far are under .500 and those are 3-4 Cleveland and Houston. They don't get to play a team even remotely on their level until week 17 against 1-6 Kansas City. It may take them even longer than it did the 2007 Dolphins to get their first win.
    32 Detroit Lions -4.64 (32)
    But Detroit is worse.
     
    gafinfan likes this.
  2. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Nov 23, 2007
    Thanks Bri, aways an interesting read, I appreciate your sharing this with us.
     
    His'nBeatYour'n likes this.
  3. pennphinfan

    pennphinfan Stelin Canez Arcade Scorz

    5,820
    2,511
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Los Angeles
    nice work as always

    question, if you were to pick winners of games strictly based on your formula, how well would you do? just curious to see if its better at picking games than just hunches and visible trends
     
  4. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

    7,053
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    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    East Tennessee
    I am continually surprised when you stat guys (best guys on here IMO) show the Fins and I realize just how in the playoff mix they are. I guess with the AFC usually so good I don't expect a 3-4 team to be in the mix but here we are. Good stuff His'n and I look forward to this thread every week. :up:
     
  5. His'nBeatYour'n

    His'nBeatYour'n Glass Ceiling Repairman

    4,454
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    Dec 10, 2007
    New York
    Not much better, to be honest. I still go on a hunch, though I do credit it for helping me avoid big mistakes by assuming that a record tells me everything about a team. I'm currently 65-51 on the year in picking teams against the spread. Which is good enough for a 3rd place tie in my 20 person office pool. First place is 68-48. And the person I'm tied with? My fiancee who doesn't use my formula, and knows nothing about football other than to always pick the Dolphins or the wedding is off. :lol:
     
    pennphinfan likes this.
  6. orangefinfan

    orangefinfan New Member

    875
    327
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    Jan 5, 2008
    Phoenix, AZ
    :lol::lol:
     

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