Hurricane Ike which has become one of the most powerful storms ever is about to make a cat 2 landfall in the Houston/Galveston Island area. Storm surge has already isolated some of those not smart enough to listen to evacuation orders. To this point, the US Coast Guard is making rescues from rooftops and stranded cars. There have been 16 rescues, with more than 160 requests in the last hour for the same. The Sheriff's department reported that as many as 20,000 folks have refused to evacuate from areas about to flood. They had to make a rescue by boat of a man they tried three times to convince to leave. When asked where he was going, the unnamed Deputy said they were going to rescue another stupid person. I have been listening to a Houston tv station on line KHOU I highly recommend that you check this out.. some of the stories are hard to believe already. The story on Ike is not the windspeed, it is the surge. Dr Masters hurricane blog Weather Underground. Here is a live loop to Houston radar, Ike seems to be getting stronger, but it has been very dry on his west side. To make matters worse, they are having storm surge issues in Louisiana at nearly the same level as Gustav at landfall. This has been going on for a full day already. There are now levees being breached outside Nola, and folks are being flooded and chased out as we speak. If you have any interest I again recommend this link. Open it up and just listen while you do other things.. when you hear something interesting, go look.. KHOU Please put these folks in your prayers and thoughts.. I an seriously afraid the death toll will be high...
Heraldo goes down.. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J52xbx2__OY]YouTube - Geraldo Spilled By Ike[/ame] Storm surge is already at 8 feet in Houston/Galveston.
Marty... One...do you think it will compare to the same devastation that Katrina did to NOLA and Bama? Or even more so? Also..I think this makes for a good reason why they need to develop a better rating for Hurricane's..everyone thinks of only the Winds....people probably stayed behind just because they heard it was a Cat 2...when really...you look at everything on total...this is more like a Cat4/5 as far as damage...
Wow...that was scarey... Reporter just said..he's seeing all of the birds an insects...moving back away from the sea wall....made the comparison of how before the Tsunami all the animals started moving inland...almost like they knew something was coming....
No, I dont the devastation from Ike will be as bad as Katrinas, though it wont be pretty. Nawlins is basically below sea level with insufficient levees that were supposed to keep the ocean at bay. They didnt, and the ocean pretty much just sat there for some time causing havoc. Here, there will a nasty surge but then it will fall out pretty quick once Ike is passed. I expect coastal areas to get hit pretty hard, as well as Galveston island, but inland hopefully shouldnt see the same kind of destruction. Still, its not a pleasant thought to have this thing coming. Anyone living on the Island or coastal areas that havent evacuated are insane. Here where I am, quite a few others are staying, but we are several miles inland in a decent spot with no easily flooded or flood prone spot, and with good drainage. This storm will leave some nastiness behind though for sure. My wife and inlaws used to live on Galveston island (and not even behind the seawall). They are all talking about how glad they are not to be living there anymore. The whole island could be under 20 feet of water once the brunt of Ike hits. Most homes are on stilts, but even still, ground floors are generally 10-15 feet up.
That just proves there is always a silver lining. I remember seeing pictures from a previous storm that went through this area that left a highway outside of Houston under 30 feet of water. BTW, the flood potential of NYC is every bit as bad as this area when the next hurricane strikes there.
Hope you stay safe man. I strongly agree with you here. I was watching the History channel I think it was a while ago and they talked about NYC and a projection of a major hurricane coming through there in the next few years. They say it will completely destroy all the structures and will be the worst damage in the history of the US. I really hope everyone in Texas and the neighboring states stays safe. Wish you all the best and we're praying for you.
same devastation? no, but more costly maybe. The scope of the effect is being greatly underplayed. Everyone, including me is focused upon H/G.. but there will be great tragedy in other places too. The chemical plants and refineries will all be impacted and THAT effect will snowball... just look at gas prices. Nola is flooding at hurricane Rita levels.. so there's that too. The great loss will be human life. I am listening to a presser from Galveston Island.. they estimate that 40% of there citizens stayed.. PLUS, there are about 1000 prisoners and staff stuck there too. A great many of those will likely be dead by morning if Ike comes in as projected. There is a freighter drifting powerless 90 miles offshore with 22 mean aboard. They tried a rescue but were unsuccessful... VT.. are you listening to the Mayor of Galveston?? wow.. Dr. Masters has addressed that in his last couple of blogs.. yesterdays speaks of it. There is an ongoing effort to do just as you suggest.
Why the hell would so many people stay on that very low lying barrier island? There are always a few idiots but 40%?????
Man I feel for those guys on the freighter. Heavy seas and no engine power equal tremendous danger to that ship. Been out there on heavy seas with engine power to maneuver to the best position to take on the waves and it was still pretty scary. Can't imagine just being a cork bobbing up and down out there right now. God help them.
My GF is in New Orleans. She works for Farmers insurance and is handling Gustav claims. On her way back to NOLA from Baton Rouge they shut down The I-10 over lake ponch, says the water is up to the bridge.
I cannot believe the stuff the Galveston Mayor just said.. There are 20,000 residents that stayed and are now stuck on Galveston Island.. IMO, about the only thing I can think of that would help them is for the storm to come in to their east. Here is a link to some good videos, including dancing bear.. KHOU
20,000 people stayed. I just can't believe it. This could get very very bad very very quickly. You would think people would be smarter then that and you just know some of them are parents that kept their children with them. How could anyone do that?
That is an item of discussion over on the weather board. The media downplayed it locally, politicians made serious errs in judgement, and folks are just hardheaded and stupid. There will be alot of folks that will die tonight regretting the inconvienience of evacuation. Inland, the VERY early surge scared a bunch more people into action, BUT, the same surge cut off coastal communities and barrier islands much earlier that expected. Pluses, and minuses. 40%.. that's 20,000 people and the sea wall is not an inclosure dike or levee, it is simply a surf barrier, while the surge is pounding upon the wall, it will also be coming around from the backside too. We won't see scenes like Nola with people on their roofs for days like Katrina, but the surge and the 15-20ft waves on top of it will chase them all into their attics and maybe onto their roofs in the fury of the storm.. right before their home turns into rubble beneath them. 1000 prisoners trapped there too.. Here's that great power point which illustrates the innundation about to occur.. at the same levels. It shows the water coming around behind the sea wall on Galveston Island. This is a savable file btw. Houston/Galveston storm surge
Ike related energy geekery here if you are interested: The Oil Drum Chuck Watson just updated his oil/infra/refinery damage forecasts over at The Oil Drum saying that: "The refineries remain a significant concern. I'm less concerned about wind, unless we get unlucky and something breaks that shouldn't. The big question now is down to flooding, and the main facility I am worried about is the Texas City complex. If the storm tracks to the NE of the bay, and winds blow offshore, it may avoid flooding. But a leftward wobble could inundate this complex, and take out over 1 MMBBL/day capacity for several months. The big Exxon-Mobil Baytown complex is a bit better protected - the storm will have to take a significant leftward jog to flood it. It looks like Port Arthur area is in for big flooding if the current trends continue, but the refineries are further inland, and if the storm starts moving faster there may not be enough time for the surge to build inland." 30 Day Outage Probabilities (Refinery Capacity): 1 MMBBL: 70% 3 MMBBL: 30% 5 MMBBL: 10%
A friend of mine married in Galveston on a run up to a hurricane many years back. I was on the island then and that blow was nothing like what's coming. It is not safe to stay in Galveston if Ike hits straight on. As far a Houston is concerned, unless things have improved since I lived there, the city floods if you piss outside. I wouldn't stay there either.
It's too late for the island.. and like I mentioned, I think some of the folks in Houston saw the early surge and bailed.. but there are always those that refuse. Here is a loop of Ike approaching the shore. It's really to late for much of anything now, the storm is nearly upon them.
If you look at the live camera titled Fox 1 that a 17 ft high flood wall the waves are breaking against .Its already to the top and you can see a huge fire in the background in Galveston which apparently fireman cant stop because of the flooding.
Oddly enough, for being what many conside a tourist town, there is a very sizeable poor ghetto area. Im guessing its mostly these people that stayed, seems to be the patterns across cities. Also, there are some places that if they open up can weather the surge. Some big hotels on the island, and of course the massive UTMB medical center.
It depends on where you are really. The city of houston proper has **** for drainage, really poorly designed, and will flood very easily. Most of the outlying burbs and such arent quite so poor, but ofc anything within a mile of the coast will get slammed brutally. BTW, as far as refineries and such go, they are all pretty resiliant to this kind of thing, but may still take damage. Even if they get off with no damage it will still stake time to get them running back up to speed, as well as to get the port of houston back up and running itself, so there will likely be rising gas prices again for several weeks until production levels stabilize.
Amazing stuff I have always been a fan of the weather if you can call it that and follow it as much as possible. Its to bad that there will be people that die because of the storm though.
The main difference between Florida and the gulf states IMO is that; for Florida, hurricanes and hurricane awareness are state wide issues. The entire state is vulnerable. Everyone is at risk. Whereas, with the gulf states it's really only the coastal areas at risk. - a pretty small area in proportion. This results in that "Oh how bad can it be?" attitude from the rest of the state(s)' constituency. Which probably contributes to the areas at risk being ill prepared and poorly informed. It's a damn shame to be sure.
Its starting to blow over in force a bit now. Wind isnt to horrible though, everything is holding OK, hopefully that part of the 'cane wont be to bad (Cat 2-3 levels). No sign of any water here atm either, but I didnt expect there to be. Feel for some of the coast though, they are getting nailed.
well.. daylight has arrived on the affected areas to find that we had some luck last night. Because of the location of landfall, Galveston Island never had onshore winds thus the surged feared for them didn't fully realize. It is my opinion that a landfall just twenty miles further south would have taken MANY more lives on Galveston Island, luck of the draw. I am afraid there will still be horror stories a plenty before we are done. My money says none of the survivors will ever NOT evacuate again. Setting that aside, the area of destruction which is ongoing, is massive. There are winds of 100 mph going on in east Texas and west Louisiana right now. We still have few reports of anything north and east of the "big story". Like Katrina, to the news, only the "bog news city" gets any press, if you don't live there, you are ignored. Wind speeds are to great for any aerial reconnaissance of the affected areas, so it will be later today before we see pictures. There were several fires that burned unattended on Galveston Island, a marina in the bay, and a famous Nola style resturant in Galveston.
Yeh...I think its imperative and should be a Federal mandate that they come up with a new Hurricane Rating system... As well...on MSNBC they brought up a good point...how much does the media need blame for people staying behind...this point was brought up by their own reporters...and I thought it was spot on....here the media and the Government keeps saying "evacuate" and then people turn on the news only to see weather people all decked out in gear right in the thick of it...kind of sends a mixed message. I guarantee you, people said..."Well this is only a Cat 2 storm", that thought probably got quite a few people killed last night...as well put a whole lot more at risk with Coast Guard members putting their lives on the line to try and save them.
Harris County EOC is having a presser. Said 911 is back up, they are working through a backlog of more than 6 THOUSAND calls for help. KHOU situation room
The bad luck for Houston/Galveston has not ended. Even before the surge has fully retreated, Ike pulls down a cold front and now the areas already flooded and having trouble draining are getting copious amount of rain. First, here's Ike's track up to present, notice how just before landfall Ike tightened up and started to intensify Here is where Ike was yesterday. 9-13 at 0845 est here are the storm totals relative to the radar loop above here is current radar showing the cold front pounding the area with more rain. Here is the current storm total.. as if the resuers didn't have it difficult enough... Officials are still struggling to reach parts of Galveston Island, Cyrstal City and the Bolivar Peninsula.. death toll is at 4.. but will rise.. it COULD have been thousands.. like Katrina spared Nola, Ike spared Galveston Island..
