Houston/Galveston about to be devastated
43 replies
cnc66luxury_boxOPHurricane Ike which has become one of the most powerful storms ever is about to make a cat 2 landfall in the Houston/Galveston Island area. Storm surge has already isolated some of those not smart enough to listen to evacuation orders. To this point, the US Coast Guard is making rescues from rooftops and stranded cars. There have been 16 rescues, with more than 160 requests in the last hour for the same. The Sheriff's department reported that as many as 20,000 folks have refused to evacuate from areas about to flood. They had to make a rescue by boat of a man they tried three times to convince to leave. When asked where he was going, the unnamed Deputy said they were going to rescue another stupid person.
I have been listening to a Houston tv station on line KHOU I highly recommend that you check this out.. some of the stories are hard to believe already.
The story on Ike is not the windspeed, it is the surge. Dr Masters hurricane blog Weather Underground.
Dr Jeff Masters wrote:
Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate, the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.
Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides along the Mississippi coast peaked at about 6 feet above normal yesterday, with a 7 foot storm tide observed on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. At 10 am CDT, storm tides of 5-6 feet were being seen in western Louisiana, and were 5 feet at Freeport, Texas, and 5.5 feet at Galveston. According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:
Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 6 feet
Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 2 to 5 feet
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 12 to 15 feet
Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Island... ... 15 to 20 feet
Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet
The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.
Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--by about 4 pm CDT today, and remain that strong for about 24 hours. Category 1 hurricane force winds of about 75-85 mph will affect the city for about an 8-hour period from midnight to 8 am on Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage. The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.
Here is a live loop to Houston radar, Ike seems to be getting stronger, but it has been very dry on his west side.
To make matters worse, they are having storm surge issues in Louisiana at nearly the same level as Gustav at landfall. This has been going on for a full day already. There are now levees being breached outside Nola, and folks are being flooded and chased out as we speak.
If you have any interest I again recommend this link. Open it up and just listen while you do other things.. when you hear something interesting, go look..
KHOU
Please put these folks in your prayers and thoughts.. I an seriously afraid the death toll will be high...
cnc66luxury_boxHeraldo goes down..
YouTube - Geraldo Spilled By Ike
Storm surge is already at 8 feet in Houston/Galveston.
vt_dolfansubscriberMarty...
One...do you think it will compare to the same devastation that Katrina did to NOLA and Bama? Or even more so?
Also..I think this makes for a good reason why they need to develop a better rating for Hurricane's..everyone thinks of only the Winds....people probably stayed behind just because they heard it was a Cat 2...when really...you look at everything on total...this is more like a Cat4/5 as far as damage...
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
vt_dolfansubscriberThanks for the link...btw....thats very very informative...gonna keep it up for the next 24 hrs...
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
vt_dolfansubscriberWow...that was scarey...
Reporter just said..he's seeing all of the birds an insects...moving back away from the sea wall....made the comparison of how before the Tsunami all the animals started moving inland...almost like they knew something was coming....
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
texanphinaticforum_veteranNo, I dont the devastation from Ike will be as bad as Katrinas, though it wont be pretty. Nawlins is basically below sea level with insufficient levees that were supposed to keep the ocean at bay. They didnt, and the ocean pretty much just sat there for some time causing havoc. Here, there will a nasty surge but then it will fall out pretty quick once Ike is passed. I expect coastal areas to get hit pretty hard, as well as Galveston island, but inland hopefully shouldnt see the same kind of destruction. Still, its not a pleasant thought to have this thing coming. Anyone living on the Island or coastal areas that havent evacuated are insane. Here where I am, quite a few others are staying, but we are several miles inland in a decent spot with no easily flooded or flood prone spot, and with good drainage.
This storm will leave some nastiness behind though for sure. My wife and inlaws used to live on Galveston island (and not even behind the seawall). They are all talking about how glad they are not to be living there anymore. The whole island could be under 20 feet of water once the brunt of Ike hits. Most homes are on stilts, but even still, ground floors are generally 10-15 feet up.
"cnc66 wrote:
Heraldo goes down..
YouTube - Geraldo Spilled By Ike
Storm surge is already at 8 feet in Houston/Galveston.
That just proves there is always a silver lining.
I remember seeing pictures from a previous storm that went through this area that left a highway outside of Houston under 30 feet of water.
BTW, the flood potential of NYC is every bit as bad as this area when the next hurricane strikes there.
BuckeyeKingNew MemberIs most of the damage going to be done by Flooding?
"BuckeyeKing wrote:
Is most of the damage going to be done by Flooding?
Almost all of it.
Wind speeds are only around 100
"texanphinatic wrote:
No, I dont the devastation from Ike will be as bad as Katrinas, though it wont be pretty. Nawlins is basically below sea level with insufficient levees that were supposed to keep the ocean at bay. They didnt, and the ocean pretty much just sat there for some time causing havoc. Here, there will a nasty surge but then it will fall out pretty quick once Ike is passed. I expect coastal areas to get hit pretty hard, as well as Galveston island, but inland hopefully shouldnt see the same kind of destruction. Still, its not a pleasant thought to have this thing coming. Anyone living on the Island or coastal areas that havent evacuated are insane. Here where I am, quite a few others are staying, but we are several miles inland in a decent spot with no easily flooded or flood prone spot, and with good drainage.
This storm will leave some nastiness behind though for sure. My wife and inlaws used to live on Galveston island (and not even behind the seawall). They are all talking about how glad they are not to be living there anymore. The whole island could be under 20 feet of water once the brunt of Ike hits. Most homes are on stilts, but even still, ground floors are generally 10-15 feet up.
Hope you stay safe man.
"Zach13 wrote:
That just proves there is always a silver lining.
I remember seeing pictures from a previous storm that went through this area that left a highway outside of Houston under 30 feet of water.
BTW, the flood potential of NYC is every bit as bad as this area when the next hurricane strikes there.
I strongly agree with you here. I was watching the History channel I think it was a while ago and they talked about NYC and a projection of a major hurricane coming through there in the next few years. They say it will completely destroy all the structures and will be the worst damage in the history of the US.
I really hope everyone in Texas and the neighboring states stays safe. Wish you all the best and we're praying for you.
cnc66luxury_box"vt_dolfan wrote:
Marty...
One...do you think it will compare to the same devastation that Katrina did to NOLA and Bama? Or even more so?
Also..I think this makes for a good reason why they need to develop a better rating for Hurricane's..everyone thinks of only the Winds....people probably stayed behind just because they heard it was a Cat 2...when really...you look at everything on total...this is more like a Cat4/5 as far as damage...
same devastation? no, but more costly maybe. The scope of the effect is being greatly underplayed. Everyone, including me is focused upon H/G.. but there will be great tragedy in other places too. The chemical plants and refineries will all be impacted and THAT effect will snowball... just look at gas prices. Nola is flooding at hurricane Rita levels.. so there's that too.
The great loss will be human life. I am listening to a presser from Galveston Island.. they estimate that 40% of there citizens stayed.. PLUS, there are about 1000 prisoners and staff stuck there too. A great many of those will likely be dead by morning if Ike comes in as projected. There is a freighter drifting powerless 90 miles offshore with 22 mean aboard. They tried a rescue but were unsuccessful...
VT.. are you listening to the Mayor of Galveston?? wow..
Dr. Masters has addressed that in his last couple of blogs.. yesterdays speaks of it. There is an ongoing effort to do just as you suggest.
"cnc66 wrote:
same devastation? no, but more costly maybe. The scope of the effect is being greatly underplayed. Everyone, including me is focused upon H/G.. but there will be great tragedy in other places too. The chemical plants and refineries will all be impacted and THAT effect will snowball... just look at gas prices. Nola is flooding at hurricane Rita levels.. so there's that too.
The great loss will be human life. I am listening to a presser from Galveston Island.. they estimate that 40% of there citizens stayed.. PLUS, there are about 1000 prisoners and staff stuck there too. A great many of those will likely be dead by morning if Ike comes in as projected. There is a freighter drifting powerless 90 miles offshore with 22 mean aboard. They tried a rescue but were unsuccessful...
VT.. are you listening to the Mayor of Galveston?? wow..
Dr. Masters has addressed that in his last couple of blogs.. yesterdays speaks of it. There is an ongoing effort to do just as you suggest.
Why the hell would so many people stay on that very low lying barrier island?
There are always a few idiots but 40%?????
mullinganforum_veteranMan I feel for those guys on the freighter. Heavy seas and no engine power equal tremendous danger to that ship. Been out there on heavy seas with engine power to maneuver to the best position to take on the waves and it was still pretty scary. Can't imagine just being a cork bobbing up and down out there right now. God help them.
Eternal Optimist. I thank God for the good things in my life. My wife, My Family, and the Miami Dolphins:up:
jdang307subscriberMy GF is in New Orleans. She works for Farmers insurance and is handling Gustav claims. On her way back to NOLA from Baton Rouge they shut down The I-10 over lake ponch, says the water is up to the bridge.
cnc66luxury_boxI cannot believe the stuff the Galveston Mayor just said.. There are 20,000 residents that stayed and are now stuck on Galveston Island.. IMO, about the only thing I can think of that would help them is for the storm to come in to their east.
Here is a link to some good videos, including dancing bear.. KHOU
mullinganforum_veteran20,000 people stayed. I just can't believe it. This could get very very bad very very quickly. You would think people would be smarter then that and you just know some of them are parents that kept their children with them. How could anyone do that?
Eternal Optimist. I thank God for the good things in my life. My wife, My Family, and the Miami Dolphins:up:
CrunchTimeretired_adminThis a better link .
Live News Cameras Hurricane Center | Live Streaming Video | Live News
cnc66luxury_box"Zach13 wrote:
Why the hell would so many people stay on that very low lying barrier island?
There are always a few idiots but 40%?????
That is an item of discussion over on the weather board. The media downplayed it locally, politicians made serious errs in judgement, and folks are just hardheaded and stupid. There will be alot of folks that will die tonight regretting the inconvienience of evacuation. Inland, the VERY early surge scared a bunch more people into action, BUT, the same surge cut off coastal communities and barrier islands much earlier that expected. Pluses, and minuses.
40%.. that's 20,000 people and the sea wall is not an inclosure dike or levee, it is simply a surf barrier, while the surge is pounding upon the wall, it will also be coming around from the backside too. We won't see scenes like Nola with people on their roofs for days like Katrina, but the surge and the 15-20ft waves on top of it will chase them all into their attics and maybe onto their roofs in the fury of the storm.. right before their home turns into rubble beneath them. 1000 prisoners trapped there too..
Here's that great power point which illustrates the innundation about to occur.. at the same levels. It shows the water coming around behind the sea wall on Galveston Island. This is a savable file btw.
cnc66luxury_boxIke related energy geekery here if you are interested:
The Oil Drum
Chuck Watson just updated his oil/infra/refinery damage forecasts over at The Oil Drum saying that:
"The refineries remain a significant concern. I'm less concerned about wind, unless we get unlucky and something breaks that shouldn't. The big question now is down to flooding, and the main facility I am worried about is the Texas City complex. If the storm tracks to the NE of the bay, and winds blow offshore, it may avoid flooding. But a leftward wobble could inundate this complex, and take out over 1 MMBBL/day capacity for several months. The big Exxon-Mobil Baytown complex is a bit better protected - the storm will have to take a significant leftward jog to flood it. It looks like Port Arthur area is in for big flooding if the current trends continue, but the refineries are further inland, and if the storm starts moving faster there may not be enough time for the surge to build inland."
30 Day Outage Probabilities (Refinery Capacity):
1 MMBBL: 70%
3 MMBBL: 30%
5 MMBBL: 10%
![[deleted]](https://cdn.thephins.com/avatars/1.jpg){kind=small}
[deleted]luxury_boxA friend of mine married in Galveston on a run up to a hurricane many years back. I was on the island then and that blow was nothing like what's coming. It is not safe to stay in Galveston if Ike hits straight on.
As far a Houston is concerned, unless things have improved since I lived there, the city floods if you piss outside. I wouldn't stay there either.
cnc66luxury_box"Celtkin wrote:
A friend of mine married in Galveston on a run up to a hurricane many years back. I was on the island then and that blow was nothing like what's coming. It is not safe to stay in Galveston if Ike hits straight on.
As far a Houston is concerned, unless things have improved since I lived there, the city floods if you piss outside. I wouldn't stay there either.
It's too late for the island.. and like I mentioned, I think some of the folks in Houston saw the early surge and bailed.. but there are always those that refuse.
Here is a loop of Ike approaching the shore. It's really to late for much of anything now, the storm is nearly upon them.
CrunchTimeretired_admin"CrunchTime wrote:
This a better link .
Live News Cameras Hurricane Center | Live Streaming Video | Live News
If you look at the live camera titled Fox 1 that a 17 ft high flood wall the waves are breaking against .Its already to the top and you can see a huge fire in the background in Galveston which apparently fireman cant stop because of the flooding.
texanphinaticforum_veteran"cnc66 wrote:
I cannot believe the stuff the Galveston Mayor just said.. There are 20,000 residents that stayed and are now stuck on Galveston Island.. IMO, about the only thing I can think of that would help them is for the storm to come in to their east.
Here is a link to some good videos, including dancing bear.. KHOU
Oddly enough, for being what many conside a tourist town, there is a very sizeable poor ghetto area. Im guessing its mostly these people that stayed, seems to be the patterns across cities.
Also, there are some places that if they open up can weather the surge. Some big hotels on the island, and of course the massive UTMB medical center.
texanphinaticforum_veteran"cnc66 wrote:
It's too late for the island.. and like I mentioned, I think some of the folks in Houston saw the early surge and bailed.. but there are always those that refuse.
Here is a loop of Ike approaching the shore. It's really to late for much of anything now, the storm is nearly upon them.
It depends on where you are really. The city of houston proper has **** for drainage, really poorly designed, and will flood very easily. Most of the outlying burbs and such arent quite so poor, but ofc anything within a mile of the coast will get slammed brutally.
BTW, as far as refineries and such go, they are all pretty resiliant to this kind of thing, but may still take damage. Even if they get off with no damage it will still stake time to get them running back up to speed, as well as to get the port of houston back up and running itself, so there will likely be rising gas prices again for several weeks until production levels stabilize.
Log in to reply.