Well now, the Patsies take their 0-4 road record to the Ralph to face the Buffalo Bills, who are playing much better with Interim Coach Fewell.
But how can the 4-8 Bills beat the 7-5 Patriots?
Hmm...well I think the Bills are good matchup for the Patriots as they can defend the pass, but struggle against the running game, but the Pats are missing Sebastian Vollmer and their starting Guard.
Meaning their running game may be degraded to the point they have to rely on the pass, add in the fact the patsies pass defense is poor, they cannot cover very well and they do not rush the passer very well.
If the Bills can hold time of possession, and force a couple of Int's out of Brady, they can win that game, especially if it is WNY in December cold.
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gafinfan likes this.
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Wow, it is indeed a pivotal game.
I have been pointing out since early in the season the Cheats are both really bad at running the ball, and against defending the pass.
I think that if the Bills can establish the run first, they could really put a hurting on the Cheats.
What does it do to the entire Division if the Bills pull this one off?
The Cheats are 0-4 on the road? This means they still have 4 road games left? -
1-4, their one win on the road was in London against the Bucs.
Lynch was feeling it a bit against the Jests, the problem was he left the game, if he is there for the whole game the Bills could have a nice one two punch with Lynch and Jackson and then hit some playaction deep to Evans or TO. -
Well the thing about that is, the Patriots live and die with the quick score, if they have to run the ball that actually plays into the Bills chances imho.
Hmm...clear...33' with a wind chill down to 19' -
That's a bit of a misnomer IMHO!
I don't think its an accurate indication when you only average like 10 runs or so a game! -
The Bills receivers need to come to play. Owens and Evans need to put their game faces on and playing like they want to win. The Patriots secondary is extremely weak and easily exploited. The Bills passing game needs to step up, period.
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Well, there are two trends that meet in the Ralph this weekend, the Patsies, who do not generate sacks, are playing a Bills Oline that gives up sacks.
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That may be so but lately theyre mostly dying. The last 7 games have featured at least one turnover in the passing game (either int or fumble after catch). The Pats should grind out the game on the ground and force the bills defense to stay out there. The Bills couldnt stop our ground game and my bet is they cant stop the pats either.
No, the misnomer is the pats only averaging about 10 runs a game. The pats are down to 4.0 per carry, from the 4.5 they were averaging about a month ago when i had checked but the bills are currently dead last vs the run with over 2000 yards allowed already. Their pass defense looks better then it is because everyone just rams it down their throats. -
Why you little...
:p
Hmm, if I were the Bills I'd still take that trade off, the Patsies are not a grind it out team, they just aren't wired to win like that nowadays imho.
That is why Belicheat has this 4th and 1 obsession, he wants to grind it out, but the Patsies just cannot, they are like the old Run and Shoot teams that when they needed to run the ball, couldn't.
Brady with 200 yds and Sammy Morris with 90 is a tradeoff the Bills would take, they would then have the benefit of both taking shots deep and pounding the ball with a good chance of success.
Hmm...throw in maybe Stroud and Williams play better in the cold... -
by not fumbling in the last 2 minutes?
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Interesting:
That reduces their practice time to what? 1 day? -
Bills need to rough up Brady consistently. But, don't touch his precious knees!:no:
gafinfan likes this. -
If the Bills can beat us, they can definitely beat the Pats. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson can run and catch the ball......they just need to play a smart 60 minute game, no turnovers, and I think they can beat the Pats.
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Maybe brady will have to stay home and baby sit his new baby.:lol:
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If I had that Bundchen chick at home I would be making lots of babies. :yes:
This just in.....Bundchen just had the baby. -
My concern would be fitzpatrick, I like the way he runs and weazles his way to first downs. I wanted to throw my shoe at him when we played them to stop him hahaha.... but you cant take away the fact that he does it often and well. I just dont think he is very good with TO...
The Ralph is a hard place to play and win. Its going to be a good game and crucial one for us... Pardon me for saying go Bills!!!! I think I might be sick now.... -
I had just read they had the baby too.
Never thought he had it in him to have a child..:lol: -
Apparently they had or rather she had the baby last Wednesday but just decided to announce it today. Maybe he did not want the added pressure of having people asking while he played, they still lost....
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BTDT....:shifty:
Yep, a 6'3 bouncing baby boy who wears #12....:D -
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Don't forget about putting their hands up next to his face.:hi5::wink2:
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Come to Buffalo, start this weekend, action and adventure in the Great White North!
Incognito is just what the Bills needed, a nasty mauler who is not intimidated by the Patsies or being cut, cats like that used to land on the Oakland Raiders when they were a good franchise. -
Why does that image suddenly reignite my hopes of someday becoming an NFL quarterback?
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Potential good news for the Bills chances:
Freddie Jackson is a fan favorite, but when Lynch starts rolling he is a load to bring to the game, if those two miss time, it can only help the Bills. -
The Pats are a one dimensional team. The one thing they have going for them is that one dimension (outside of turnovers) is most correlated with winning. In other words, if you could only be good in one area that would be the one to pick. It's not good enough by itself (no one thing is), but it gives you a punchers shot every week.
So to answer the question, I would say the Bills have to win the turnover battle and limit the Pats passing game (either by controlling the clock or pressuring Brady and the WRs). -
Disagree, the Patsies strength, passing the ball plays into the Bills strength defending the pass, which is what gives the Bills an excellent chance this game.
The Bills could win TOP, and the turnover battle, and win this one, especially if it is in the 20's and windy, we saw what happened in Cleveland when the Steelers were shocked on TNF.
Cold weather makes the ball incredibly slick, the Patsies used to know that... -
Which one is stronger? The Bills secondary is really good, with McCargo able to handle Moss one on one, that goes against your overall philosophy that a great Wr cannot be covered consistently.
Potentail bad news for the Bills...perhaps:
Josh Reed is still a good Wr and sometimes a team will rally when a key player is out of the game -
So cute at that age...:yes:
McGee isn't it?
He played man on man v Moss in Wk 1, -
For proof, Aiken going over Sean Smith's back for that TD is a good place to start.
Imho, Wr's have an edge, a talented Cb can make up for the Wr's edge though, the Bills are 5th in pass defense, but the patsies have Fred Taylor coming off of IR, but when their hope lays with a 33 yr old dinged up running back, they have issues.
Two interesting trends are meeting in this game:
Pats are 12-0 in Buffalo since 03, but 0-5 on the road this year.Disnardo likes this. -
I know people like to believe that, but the stats say it's simply not true.
The best CB in the league will allow 40% of the passes attempted against him to be completed. And he can't do that every year. The best you can hope for is that your elite CB will stop 50% of the passes against him. It's a coin flip.
Look at Revis, whom most consider the best CB in the league. This year Revis has allowed just 39% of the passes to be completed against him. (He's second in the league to our own W. Allen). Last year Revis allowed 58% of the passes against his coverage to be completed.
That's the best CB, most good CBs will allow somewhere between 50% - 60% of the passes to be completed. People will see that a CB had a great game here and there but they don't see the big picture. Then they watch all of the Dolphin games and think our CBs get beat so much more than others. Reality is that Smith and Jones are in the 50% - 60% range and Davis is at 62%. They should be better of course but even if they become the best in the league, the team benefit is limited. Looking at Sean Smith, if he were stopping passes as well as a top 10 CB, he would have stopped 3 more passes against him this year.
Now let's compare that to elite WRs. The top 10 WRs all catch upwards of 75% of the passes thrown their way. The leader is Naanee at 91% but he only has 21 receptions. We actually have a couple of guys with high catch percentages in Cam and Bess but no true #1. If we added Anquan Boldin (I'm using his numbers as an example, not trying to get into a debate about which WR to add)), to Cam (or Hartline) and Bess and threw to Boldin the same number of times we targeted Ginn then our offense would have about 16 more receptions this year.
Reality is that if we had a Boldin we'd probably throw it to him more and more drives would have been salvaged. So our offense would be on the field more and our defense would be on the field less, but it would be a complete guess to try to estimate the true impact. I do feel secure in guessing that the actual impact would have been far greater than just the 16 passes.
So statistically speaking, WRs win a heck of a lot more often than CBs do. And that's without taking into account penalty yardage. Add that in and the difference will be even greater. -
And yet:
He shut those pro bowl Wr down, there is no "believe" to that fact Rafi, a talented Cb on a defense with a decent passrush can handle even the elite receivers.
By going to gross stats like "wr's catch on average" you lose the fact that good Cb's can and do shut down even elite Wr, it is the other 56 pairs of Cb's that set the baseline performance.
And that puts a premium on a shut down corner.
The Bills secondary has a ton of talen in Byrd and T McGee are particularly good, and the bills have allowed only 10 td's all year through the air, tied for fewest in the NFL with...the NY Jests.
So yes, a good secondary married to an average passrush can shut down even the most sophisticated NFL passing attack, the lowly Bills are proof of that fact. -
WEather for the game:
That would make the windchill down into the teens and also make Field Goals and adventure.
http://www.weather.com/weather/loca...oogle.com&cm_pla=forecastpage&cm_ite=CityPage -
Anybody can have a good or even a great game one in a while. The great players like Revis can have great games more often, but no CB can do it every game. The fact is that a shut down CB will have great games about half of the time. The other half they will be average. So the belief that you can have a shut down CB in the NFL is just a myth. The most you can hope for is that a great CB will play great about half of the time.
The quote you provided doesn't invalidate that fact. It just highlights his great games.
So yes, a good secondary married to an average pass rush can shut down even the most the most sophisticated passing attack sometimes, but the stats prove that they can't do it all the time or even most of the time.
Hopefully, the Bills will have one of those sometimes games this week, but don't confuse that with it somehow disproving years of stats. -
Which in my view, bolsters the argument that shutdown corners are more impotant than ever before in the NFL, otherwise teams will just run zone and load up on defensive line passrushers.
The colelge game will begin producing cover corners, that is what the market demands.
Depends, if the cold can blunt the patsies passing game, and the Bills can pressure Brady even slightly more than average, they have a chance of winning their "super bowl"
The Bills have responded to Fewell, and the pats secondary is putrid, if Fitzy has some time to throw, and Jackson and Lynch get rolling the upset is in the works.
And it should be pointed out that the Pats kick coverage teams is rather poor.
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