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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, May 28, 2019.
Kinda click bait article. No idea this guys credibility but I will say to this.
"Does this mean Rosen has a 50% chance of becoming a Pro Bowl quarterback? At a minimum, it seems like his odds are lower than say, that of Sam Darnold and Josh Allen"
I disagree Rosen has all the talent to be better than both of these quarterbacks. I believe in the right system any QB can thrive especially when they have a coaching staff that designs around their picks instead of shoehorning QB's into some "Box" system that isn't innovative.
Either way we will know shortly what kind of player we have!
Counterpoint - Arizona.
Well to be honest. Double counterpoint - Miami
were not much better.
Arizona won three games. I know head-to-head records don't tell the whole story, but a 4 game difference is significant.
With our good coaching. We have real coaches now. Rosen should do really well. Our team is nothing like last year. I am making a lot of assumptions here. As i have said before. If flores really is responsible for new england defense last year? We are in good hands. I really think our players will play at a higher level than the gase regime. I am hoping for a winning season. I know it’s easy to contradict what I’m saying. But i am a true dolphin fan. 10-6 and a wildcard birth is my prediction. Of course you can say that’s a stupid prediction. As we don’t have a clue how good we will be?
This is a tremendous article as well:
I said it in another thread but what I see looking at some games from last year is a rookie making rookie mistakes on a bad team. He wasn't getting a whole lot of help from his coaching staff either, so he was kind of doomed from the start. I'm not going to say were a whole lot better but I've got to believe the staff Flores has put together is leaps and bounds better than what he had in Arizona.
Too young to start...To late...too fast..to late..to fast..repeat for 12 games...shell shocked...overwhelmed..to many hitches before release...fundamental breakdown of mechanics..needs to add some good muscle....inability to multitask..
Story of his year..
Statistically the chance of a 1st round rookie QB with bad statistical production turning their career around is pretty low.
Which is pretty well what the article says.
What I want to know is what circumstances allow the turnaround to happen.
- Removal of bad coaching?
- Addition of good coaching?
- Was the team tanking in the QB’s rookie year? (Troy Aikman’s situation)
- Improved supporting cast?
- Innate ability?
- Study and work habits?
- Light bulb going on? (Brett Favre after getting traded from Atlanta)
Positive feedback early on for QB Josh Rosen from Miami pass catchers
now Rosen is getting positive feedback from his new teammates here in South Florida. Last week, veteran receiver Kenny Stills praised the way Rosen delivers the football.
“I don’t know what the right word is for it, but it doesn’t look like it’s coming fast and then it gets in front of your face and you see that it’s spinning well and it has some velocity behind it,” said Stills. “(Rosen) is a great player and he has a bright future.”
Jakeem Grant has been encouraged by Rosen and fellow quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s presence in the wide receiver meeting rooms early on.
“There’s a couple of times that (the quarterbacks) came in and just gave us pointers on what they think we should do and just on checks and stuff and adjustments that they see on the field,” said Grant. “I love when they come in there because we get to joke around with those guys. They have a great sense of humor, as well.”
Also for the QBs who went on to be busts, what caused that to happen:
- injury? (RG III)
- Lack of technique? (Rick Mirei)
- Inability to handle the mental side of NFL QBing?
- Lack of motivation/egotism? (Ryan Leaf)
- Continued poor coaching?
- Bad habits learned because of poor play? (David Carr)
- Defenses catching onto the QB’s quirks/tendencies?
- Poor initial evaluation?
I've brought this up before, but until extremely recently, the list of 21 year old QBs that were thrown in to start the majority of their rookie season was a very, very short list. And the list of ones who were asked to do so on a terrible team, with an offensive line that was changing guys out every week was basically empty.
So Rosen was put into a nearly unprecedented difficult situation, on a team with a defense minded rookie coach who was so bad that he was fired after one year, and he performed as well as anyone should have expected given those circumstances. Given that he wasn't seriously injured, the stats need to be thrown out the window, and the fact that he got that extensive on field experience is purely a plus.
At 22 years old, Rosen is still younger than some rookies. (Drew Lock, Will Grier and Ryan Finley this year). Tannehill was 24 his rookie season in Miami, and all of the press was that he would need to sit his whole rookie season. So the fact that Arizona's coaches were idiots is being held strongly against Josh, and that just seems like the height of unfair stupidity to me.
This is hilarious because there was a very well thought out post on here comparing Rosen to the other rookies showing his individual performance did NOT deviate significantly from his rookie counterparts.
The Cardinals didnt drop him because they have no faith. It's because they have a new HC who has been trying to blow his new QB since high school.
The conclusion of the article is not a great one for the Dolphins. “If he gets enough chances, he’ll probably have a good year.”
You could say that about a boatload of quarterbacks in the NFL who give you almost no chance of winning a Super Bowl.
Then again, as the Barnwell article outlined very well, the cost is minimal, and so it’s a risk that should be taken.
Additionally, given Rosen’s very small cap hit for the next three years, that “good year” could potentially occur alongside the accumulation of considerable other talent on the roster, which may compensate for whatever Rosen isn’t offering in the way of Super Bowl caliber quarterback play.
The Dolphins, and most other teams, are not winning the Super Bowl in 2019. So I could really care less about which QB would give us the best chance this year, next year, or probably the year after that. What I want is a QB who can be developed into a player than can excel over time. Not rushed or fast forwarded into a bottom line result within the next year, one way or the other.
Well you’d better hurry, because if Rosen becomes anything average or worse, the Dolphins stand a chance of competing for a Super Bowl only during the period of time when his cap hit is very small.
Once that contract is up and he gets a contract that pays him an average QB’s salary or better, they stand almost no chance of competing for a Super Bowl unless he becomes one of the best QBs in the league.
LOL. I just disagree with you as strongly as humanly possible. So arguing about it is pretty pointless.
Yeah, no point in that.
As well he should be trying to blow him and attaching his career to a player of Murray’s caliber..
I would of done the same thing if I was the cardinals.
I personally wouldnt, but that isnt the issue.
Rosen could have been Peyton Manning after his rookie year and he would have been replaced.
Even if that’s the case, however, the fact that he was replaced has no bearing on predictions of his future play, using the kinds of variables in the article. It essentially has no meaning. If he was kept by the Cardinals, the analysis in the article would be exactly the same.
So the reasons the Cardinals had in replacing him are immaterial.
I’m not gonna fault a new head coach who wants and believes in his guy..especially given how Rosen played and Murray can play.
This is such an astute statement that most don’t truly grasp the significance of it. The best example I can think of to validate this point is Joe Gibbs and the Washington Redskins. His SYSTEM allowed for 3 Super Bowl wins with 3 different and at best average quarterbacks in Doug Williams, Joe Theisman and Mark Rypien. It was the system that made the TEAM a success.
Will Brian Flores have a system in place that allows for TEAM success so long as each part fulfills his part and not rely on the crap shoot of having a star stud that carries the team?
Time will tell
I dont disagree with that myself, I'm just pointing it out a bit for others who may want to believe it says something extreme.
Also @DJ I agree with letting a coach choose his guy generally or at least be comfortable with him.
I'm just pointing out like I said this has to do more with their feelings on Murray than on Rosen.
Also if hes horrible I dont even consider it a loss. It was a smart trade on our part to kick the tires on a guy our (I forget if its QB Coach or OC) is very high on.
After having watched the parade of pretenders, poseurs, and imposters who have [dis]graced the starting lineup over the past score years, I am waiting to see if there is the slightest hint of a possibility that Rosen could become a starter worth tuning in to watch. In spite of the history, I am eagerly awaiting the opportunity to watch the next Dolphins game I can get on my television. I may or may not be pleased, but I am encouraged by the new leadership and maybe lightening will strike twice in Dolphindom!
Hearken back to this day......
That article is pure trash- comparing Rosen to other quarterbacks does ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to predict how he'll play a year from now (or even this season). The only fact of that article is that he had the worst line in football by a wide margin, which simply means he had it harder than average to develop as a rookie. He could be just as bad behind an average line...or he could be spectacular. We just don't know until he takes some snaps and proves his worth.
Hypothetically speaking, if someone held a gun to your head and told you you had to bet everything you own on what kind of quarterback Rosen would be, would you not use the information in the article to make your best bet?
If not, what information would you use?
No...I wouldnt use that information at all.
I'd use my own eyes to evaluate each play, I'd evaluate the pieces around him and how they played into his strengths and weaknesses. I'd look at his throwing motion, his ability to read a defense when given time, his ability to evade pressure and so forth.
If I had to guess based on nothing, I'd refuse to do so and be shot because it would be a blind guess in the dark using someone elses research and I refuse to stand behind something I'm not confident in.
I want to see his answer now though.
I'd just bet that Rosen will become the type of QB that throws footballs to receivers (technically a valid answer). In general I think you have to play some mental games with the guy holding the gun until you either wiggle out of the situation or you're allowed to make a response choice with a high probability of being correct (or low probability correct but low risk.. either way you got to talk your way out of the situation.. absolutely NO reason to accept the situation as is).
Oh, and you won't need the information in the article to do what I'm suggesting.
I didn’t say use the information in the article exclusively; I said simply use the information in the article at all. Certainly the kind of information you’re talking about can be used in conjunction with the information in the article.
In other words, if the matter involved potentially losing everything you own, I doubt the information in the article would be disregarded completely.
I'd watch film and make my own opinion...which wasn't present in that article at all.
In college, Rosen looked like a potential #1 overall QB. That's what I'd base my "guess" on since Arizona was in full tank mode last season. I mean, you're going to fault a rookie who's under 3 different coordinators his first year? With that line? There's really nothing to evaluate there since it was a pure hot mess. So college tape is really the only true objective material we have....but he had a GREAT LINE in college. So that's not fully objective either on the pro level.
If I HAD TO guess, I'd say he won't develop since the odds are against any QB developing into something special. But if you're just asking for my opinion, then I'd say the kid has talent and could turn into a stud with the right coaching. Do we have that in Miami? Now you're making me guess again....I have no idea. How good will our line be? I have no idea about that either, and those are two of the main criteria for him being a stud.
Talent alone is not enough...but he does throw a BEAUTIFUL pass, strong arm, pretty good pocket presence, etc. But is that enough to translate to being an elite QB? Again, I have absolutely no idea. Which is why that original article was such BS in the first place- nobody has a clue what Rosen can become in a few years. He has talent but there are too many factors to make a blind guess.
Over the modern era of NFL passing, the majority of the destined-to-be-successful quarterbacks who were forced to play as rookies had managed to show something in their rookie years that was far, inarguably so, better than what Josh Rosen put together as a rookie with Arizona in 2018.
Peyton Manning set rookie records for completions, yards, and touchdowns, was 5th in the NFL in touchdowns, and it only took four games of acclimation before he was out-performing guys like Dan Marino in efficiency for the final 12 games of the year.
Ben Roethlisberger was 13-0 and had a top 5 passer rating as a rookie.
Matt Ryan was 11th in passer rating, led a massive turnaround from 4-12 the previous year to 11-5, and had a top 5 QBR.
Joe Flacco was also a winning quarterback, and was top-half of the NFL in both passer rating in QBR.
Cam Newton was an outright dynamo in 2011, top-half of the league in passer (both passer rating and QBR) but also adding in 700 yards and 14 more TDs on the ground, total of 35 TDs that year.
Andrew Luck was already top 10 in QBR even as a rookie, led his team to an 11-5 record, had 28 total TDs that year.
Russell Wilson was #3 in QBR and #4 in passer rating, already as a rookie in 2012, to go along with his 11 wins.
Dak Prescott was #3 in QBR and #3 in passer rating, 13-3 as a starter, and tacked on 300 yards of rushing and 6 more rushing TDs (for a total of 29 TDs) as a rookie.
DeShaun Watson was #3 in passer rating and had the #1 QBR in the whole NFL as a rookie in 2017. He only started 6 games but scored 21 total TDs.
And of course Baker Mayfield ended up doing reasonably well on full season QBR and passer rating, scored 27 TDs, but more importantly he, like Peyton Manning all those years ago, had a pretty discrete increase in effectiveness as the year wore on. For the final 8 games of 2018, he was PFF's 5th highest graded QB with the 5th highest adjusted passer rating.
And yeah, sure, you do have some cases like that of Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Matt Stafford, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, where they had poor rookie seasons, but then (at some point) turned things around and had or are having solid careers. But that is clearly the minority.
And most of those guys...aren't really anything to write home about, let's be honest. The higher up the chain you go in terms of qualifying who is actually a really good quarterback and who is not, the more likely it is that guy was successful as a rookie, if he was actually forced to play.
Most often when people state that rookie QBs should be expected to suck, the evidence they cite is from three decades ago, or even longer, when the NFL passing game was virtually unrecognizable compared to today's game.
It's Troy Aikman this, Steve Young that, or Terry Bradshaw.
But the reason they reach this far back is simple: they HAVE TO!
In order to find a quarterback that ended up a truly outstanding player after struggling as a rookie, you really have to go back that far. Nobody's really buying that Eli Manning or Donovan McNabb are elite.
And let's also be honest, many of the above examples, arguably all of them in fact, still had better rookie years than Josh Rosen had.
The best you can say is that they didn't necessarily do something outstanding as rookies...and maybe that means conceptually that Josh Rosen belongs among them, not below them.
I'm really not picky. If you read through the things I cite above for what the QBs did as rookies, I accept many different forms of showing me your potential as a rookie. I try and keep things at the conceptual level with this stuff and avoid getting overly scientific about it for a reason.
If you're a rookie just feeling your way out in the league, just show me something. If you're a dual threat, show me that, and score points. Show me yards per attempt efficiency (which dominates passer rating). Show me situational efficiency (which feeds into QBR). Show me you're a winner. Show me how much you improved as the year went on. Show me that your strengths coming out, were your strengths as a rookie. Show me...SOMETHING.
The problem is, Josh Rosen had one of the worst quarterback seasons in recent memory. Some say, one of the worst quarterback seasons EVER.
His ESPN QBR ranked very close to the bottom of the ~300 total QB seasons they've recorded since 2006.
His passer rating was bad, of course. As was his yards per attempt and net yards per attempt.
His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt relative to League Year Average was the 2nd worst...since 1932.
His efficiency was even worse while actually ahead or tied, which is an unusual (and not promising) occurrence. His passing production and efficiency actually benefited from being behind so much that teams played looser defense against him, allowing him to pad his stats a little bit.
He did not improve as the season wore on. There was no "First 6/Last 6" type of split that shows marked improvement.
His supposed strengths were NFL weakness-level bad. Analysts thought Rosen would win from a clean pocket. But he had the 2nd-worst passer rating in the NFL from clean pockets.
They also thought he'd be a good play-action passer. But his play-action completion percentage was the worst in the NFL, 5 whole points worse than the 2nd-worst guy (Jeff Driskel).
What does all this mean? I'll tell you what it doesn't mean. It doesn't mean the book is closed on Josh Rosen's career, any more than it was closed on Donovan McNabb's when he struggled in 1999, or Jared Goff's when he struggled in 2016.
What it means, though, is that a player who had a previous ~40% chance of success (historical percentage based on his grade and where he was taken) has now had his chances of success diminished...a lot.
That's part of the Bayesian updating you have to constantly be doing if you want to be successful in these sorts of scenario predictions. You update the old information with the new information, not excluding any of it. It's no more appropriate to pretend that 2018 didn't happen than it is to pretend that 2018 is all that matters.
The implied success rate based on historical and contemporary evidence is very much in-line with what NFL teams would draft in the 3rd or 4th rounds. That is why teams generally weren't interested in Josh Rosen at a higher price-point than that. They process this all intuitively, because they've been around it for so long.
This is all stuff you could do without watching any of Josh Rosen play football.
But I have watched Josh Rosen play football, a lot. I watched him come onto the scene at UCLA and do pretty well, for a freshman. I watched him follow that up with what was really a poor year, marked by injuries, losses, and inefficiency. And then I watched him stack another mediocre year up for the pile. I gave him a 1st round grade, despite these things, because there were some attractive core traits.
But now I've seen him fail for yet another year. He's now four years since when he peaked as a football player, which was High School.
I've watched his 3rd down (short to medium) conversion rate go from 47% in 2015, to 42% in 2016, to 38% in 2017, and now 32% in 2018...four consecutive years of degrading situational effectiveness.
The Dolphins have set this trade up as a boom-bust endeavor.
Either Rosen is the guy Chad O'Shea thought when the Patriots reviewed him last year and had him as their best QB in the draft, which means he blows them away in training camp and preseason, earns the starting job, runs the offense like a top, they score a ton of points and win a ton of games...
...or they take a HIGH caliber guy in 2020.
And once that happens, the clock is ticking on Rosen. Maybe he starts ahead of that high caliber guy in 2020...but only for a bit. Rosen's Miami career will effectively be dead, but he could still go on as the starter for a few games.
To the extent that I've criticized the trade, it's been because I think there's a small to not meaningful chance that Rosen goes from the player he was in Arizona in 2018 to the sort of player he would need to be in 2019 (with a team that honestly isn't much better than Arizona) in order to induce Miami to build around him instead of making a major move toward another quarterback.
They've not really given themselves a realistic winning path with this trade. Thus it strikes me as frivolous, and that's a pretty costly impulse buy.
But it's not that big a deal. If the player they'd have taken at 62 overall busts out (which is a better bet than not, at that stage of the draft) then it'll be moot. That's literally how this works.
Lots of good points in there. The Barnwell article linked above outlines the tremendous upside potentially involved, mainly centering on Rosen's meager cap hit. And I'm with you that the 2nd-rounder traded is far more likely than not to be worthless.
The danger as I see it is that Rosen plays in a Tannehill-esque manner, where he flashes some good qualities, and his overall inadequate play can be attributed to other factors that the team believes it can fix as the new team management hones itself and the roster. Then Rosen potentially teases the team along, playing at an average level and giving the team little chance to win a Super Bowl.
To address that issue, the team needs to give itself a deadline -- precisely the remaining length of Rosen's current contract -- to fix those factors to the degree that Rosen begins to play significantly above average. If that doesn't happen by then, he doesn't get another contract with the team. We can't do Tannehill 2.0 and get ourselves stuck in no better than the average range as a team. Don't spend another seven years trying to fix a quarterback.
Curious on your thoughts of Josh Allen and Sam Darnold and how they played last season. I liked Allen's rookie year more than most, personally.
I WHOLEHEARTEDLY disagree. Frivolous would be signing Foles or some other flavor of the month veteran to a max contract hoping he lives up to it. We essentially gave a 5th rounder next season for Rosen in exchange for having 90% of his salary pre-paid. Or if you want to look at it another way, we sold next year's 5th for $11M and got a top QB prospect try-out in the process.
The 2nd rounder we traded was free so I don't count that- yes we could have landed another impact lineman there, but the need is much greater at QB. If Rosen ends up being a 10 year backup like Matt Moore, that trade was an absolute STEAL. He certainly doesn't have to be a long-term starter for the peanuts we paid for him. But if he does get there, then there's little doubt that this goes down as the trade of the decade for Miami.
It was a brilliant move no matter what happens and I applaud them for it.
I'm sure that yes I'd look at it at the very least but Id probably be looking at every single statistic whether I believed in its validity or not.
I mean...the guy has a gun!
Edit: Also want to add, I do appreciate your well thought out posts. I'm just generally a contrarian and like to look at things from different angles.
Statistics are very important but I also believe when it comes to humans there is usually a story behind their performance and it's important to figure out the context of said stats when applied to individual players.
This is a great post. Do you have any information on the quarterbacks Rosen was very similar to last year, and their career trajectories?
The Rosen situation is an interesting one. I tend to ignore his first year in Zona. He had a terrible line, coaching, and inadequate WRs. I don't even buy the narrative that the Cards gave up on him. I think the perfect guy to fit Kingsbury's system.
I thought he was the second best QB coming out of college last season. He is accurate, has size, has a strong arm, and nice pocket presence. At times in his career, he has shown the ability to throw beyond what I consider an accurate pass. He has ball placement ability that a lot of QB do not have nor will ever have. We are talking guys like Mayfield, Wilson, Rogers, and Brees. Tannehill threw a catchable ball, but he was never a pinpoint guy and never will be. In fact, I do not think that most QBs are pinpoint guys. Rosen has flashed this ability. I do think that this is an elite skillset to have.
Okay, here is the negative, and it is a big one. His processing time is slow. He is late on throws enough to which it is a concern. Despite all of his positive attributes, I think that this is the anchor holding him back. I didn't help that Arizona has a horrible offensive line. Unfortunately, our line is pretty brutal too. Recent history shows us that the Dolphins for whatever reason, do not think that this is a priority. During the entire Tannehill tenure, at best, we had an average line, and that was for a very brief time. By all accounts, Rosen is a smart guy, but I am not necessarily sure that intelligence and processing are even the same thing. I remember taking timed multiplication tests in elementary. There were definitely kids getting the questions right, but just not doing it fast enough. Smart kids, but they just had slow processing time. I think he can get better, but how much better is the question. What makes this different from doing math problems quickly is that students are trying to shave seconds off their time. He needs to make reads quicker by a fraction of a second. That is much harder to do.
Okay, the last piece of the puzzle is his situation. Mark my words. There will be people on this site complaining that Rosen is not getting a fair chance. Let me be 100% frank, he is NOT going to get a fair chance. He has a very short window to prove that he is a franchise QB, and he is doing it with a team that is in the process of a rebuild. Before you feel bad for him, realize there are a ton of backup QBs out there that would kill for a chance to log a few starts just to show teams what they are capable of. He does have better targets in Miami than Arizona, so that is working for him.
How would I handle the situation -
I would try and run plays where he gets rid of the ball quickly. Lots of slants (I think that has worked in New England.). I would try and have his first WR and second WR option on the same side of the field, so he doesn't have to read the whole field at once. The ultimate goal would be for Rosen to get into a rhythm and gain confidence and for us to mitigate our line woes. IF we can get to that point, I would start to open things up.