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How Many Of You Will Be Disappointed?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jul 1, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But isn't clearing out basically all of your dependable veterans the definition of tanking? I get that they're trying to enact a 2-3 year plan by gutting the roster, loading up on picks and then relying heavily on the draft to fill holes. I don't think that excuses anyone from losing though as long as you're selling season tickets. Because as others have said, draft picks does not automatically equal long term winning like Ross was pitched into believing. We COULD grab some top talent and get better quickly for it, but it's just as likely that we'll draft some busts....that's the law of averages in the league.

    It's entirely possible that we fired guys like Cam Wake to go on a 2-3 year losing skid and come out of this no better than we started. It's really the ultimate gamble and its absolutely tanking on purpose if you're not trying to field a competitive roster. We've all but ignored the trenches this year after gutting them and that's where every football game is ultimately won- how can you not hold them accountable for that? That's why I feel that they have to compete this season and win some close games...I just don't see how they do that when you can't control the LOS on either side of the ball.

    I completely understand what they're TRYING to do. I just wish others realized that it's not that simple to build championship teams. No matter what anyone says, the odds are against us being championship contenders in 3-5 years unless we get that elite franchise QB. And the only way to guarantee that is by winning less than 3 games this season and grabbing Tua (or trading most of our draft picks to do the same)....then hoping he's really who the experts think he is. Path #2 would be if Rosen develops and it doesn't require full tank mode, but the way I see it we're basically betting the next 5-8 years on one of these two names.

    But what if Rosen doesn't develop and Tua suffers a career-ending injury in college this season? Now we're back at the drawing board with nobody in the trenches and zero direction on how to fix it. I'm personally not okay with that- which is why I say winning this season is just as important as any year.
     
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  2. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    ......but we have Rosen now. Superbowl, baby! ...no? :tongue:
     
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  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    That's too many what ifs. What the team had been doing wasn't working and worse the cap situation wasn't good. You can field a true championship contender with bad cap management. Sure there are always what ifs. But if you always second guess you can never do anything. It would just be as easy to say what if they hold onto their talent and the mediocrity continues?

    Bottom line is this coach and this GM are making changes and have the freedom to build the team the way they want to. It's not about continuity for them. It's about enacting their plan.

    Every player they put on the field will be there to compete and to win but it will be winning, or trying to win, their way.

    It'll all have to play out but what's happening right now isn't unusual or wrong, at least in my opinion. It's the franchise trying to find a new direction via Flores. And that will take some time. And that's okay.
     
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  4. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    YES! Maybe?
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Rosen is definitely a SOLID PROSPECT...meaning that he could be the guy with the right influences and other pieces. And I think that's all you could really hope for going into a new season, a guy that could take that next step and eventually fall into that elite category.

    Of course, he could also become a complete bust and be laughed out of Miami- but that's okay too for the price we paid for him. The important part is actually bringing in those young guys each year and letting them compete. That's the only way to find your next QB.
     
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  6. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    It's nice to read a well thought out and presented position about "tanking".
     
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  7. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if the Pats Tanked for Tom. You know, maybe they had to get up high in that sixth round.
     
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  8. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I was just playin' with my man, Unlucky.
     
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  9. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Active Member

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    Veterans we gave up?
    Wake , gore, tannehill?
    I think we can manage.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely get that and I'm not against a new direction AT ALL. But what I am against is what we just did with Ryan Tannehill for six seasons- put a guy out there that could be great and tell him to run for his life. Our offensive line is on track to be the worst we've fielded in a decade or more, which is the exact situation Rosen just struggled in. Why repeat those colossal mistakes and expect a different result?

    I mentioned in another thread that I could be way off-base...maybe we brought in an amazing line coach that will make everything work with Tunsil and a handful of other average starters. Maybe we will be able to recognize stunts in 2019 and have enough firepower to open up some holes for the run game. That's really the only thing i want to see in year one...growth in controlling the line of scrimmage. Ultimately no rebuild can go anywhere without that one aspect of the game- we've witnessed that for almost two decades and no WR/QB/RB talent can overcome that long term.

    Looking back, was it really a "what if" over our first and second string quarterbacks getting injured over the past few years? Tannehill took more hits in his first 4 years than any active QB in the league today. And again, our current line is worse than the one protecting RT, Moore, Cutler and Osweiller.
     
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  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I have personally gone from total tank mode, burn it to the ground and go 0-16, to excited to watch every single game because we traded for Rosen and brought back Parker.

    However, if someone else wants to angle for the first pick because they dont feel the same, I advocate for their point of view.
     
  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Sure. But that's going over the past where we know TONS of mistakes were made. And most recently James should have been kept by extending him a year ago and not risking him in FA. Maybe that was Grier maybe it was Tannenbaum but that's now technically also a past mistake.

    Looking at what we have this year, looking at the draft, since the regime change, I'm not sure more could have been done for the OL in terms of a sure thing.

    I'm right with you on trench play. I really hope the new coaches can do far more with less than anything with seen since the Tannehill era if not before. A beat up QB, or two, might be the hardest thing to stomach.

    But again, I've got patience - unless the scheme ends up looking horrible like it did last year.
     
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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    We brought in a starter from Buffalo to replace James and his stats/grades were average for the past few seasons- meaning he should be "okay". We also drafted two interior linemen (one could play any position)so if everything works out perfectly we could have the three starters we lost. However, that still leaves us with zero depth and none of the three above are proven.

    So what we could have done more was scouring practice squads and making a few moves for young linemen. And maybe we still do that...who knows? That's always my primary concern though and it makes me very nervous when it's not addressed by a new regime. In this case I'm even more worried because we're expected to be a power running team (which I LOVE!!!!!).
     
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  14. ripper1961

    ripper1961 Active Member

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    I'm pretty excited about the upcoming season. I don't have high expectations but I do see a glimmer of hope. Go Dolphins!!!!!
     
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  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    On paper our line is worse. Against that is the consistent underperformance of the OL since Sparano left (not that the OL was good under Sparano, just that they performed up to their salary). Other teams have shown that with good coaching you can make chicken soup with chicken feathers with respect to the OL.

    For me the biggest question about next season is the OL. IMO coaching is more important than talent as to whether that question gets answered positively or negatively. Under Gase and Philbin the biggest weakness of the team was the failure of the backups, especially the OL backups, to contribute. Gase’s unicorn line that was pretty good when everyone was healthy but as soon as a backup got inserted the line turned into a colander.

    If Flores’ approach to discipline and knowing your job and your teammates’ jobs is real, not just media talk, then I have hope that our OL will perform better in games than we did under the previous regimes. The inability of the OL to pick up stunts last year would have been unforgivable on a HS team, yet we had highly paid NFL coaches and assistant coaches let that stuff go on all season.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree. If the line is even average we could actually be a really good team...especially with our secondary. It will all come down to coaching though and having the right schemes to counter a lack of talent.
     
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  17. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    There is a lot you say I agree with, but in the end its the players who do the playing. If they can't, or won't, then the only avenue out is replacement. I feel that too many here put too much credence in "team chemistry". It is real, but only the icing on the cake. Without the cake, there is only a hollow shell which is actually how I interpret your "unicorn OL" phrase.

    It seems to me that whenever there is a change in coaching there is often a first year improvement that is not typically followed up in the following years. I think this is a reflection of players realizing that they may be in trouble the first year under a new coach until they find a way to establish themselves at which point they think they know it all and start to freelance or whatever an OL does to follow there own preferences. This is, in my opinion, a kind of rot in the NFL that is not limited to the OL.

    There is a reason the Patriots are continuously successful and I think its because Billicheck has figured this out and replaces players before the either grow an attitude or start to fail physically. Maybe it is the coaching after all, but only in terms of which players they keep.
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I played o-line in high school and college plus went back and coached my high school line for a few years afterwards. Coaching is a huge part of the line because 3-5 people's assignment can change when a LB takes two steps to the left....or a NT slides from over center into either A gap. The center may do the right thing and clear the A but then the guard doesn't recognize the shift and he tries blocking down for the double team. The tackle kicks out and you have a LB walk through the B gap untouched...or a DT stunts from the other side of the ball for the same effect. Your interior three really have to play in harmony or it gets ugly quick....and we've been a revolving door at guard for a very long time now.

    The other part is attitude and just general leadership- I've seen linemen play horrible the entire first half, then make a small adjustment on one play an completely lay out the guy in their gap. From that point forward, that lineman dominates because he gains confidence while the DT starts second guessing his technique, angles, etc. If I can make a defender think about me as the ball is snapped, then that fraction of a second is all I need to put him on his ***. Little stuff like that makes a massive difference and it really does come down to preparation, technique and coaching....plus believing in the guy to your left and right.

    In general, I think offensive line is the one position where the coach can make an immediate, game-changing impact if you have the right guy at the helm bringing those guys together. It could actually be more important in the grand scheme of things than the QB coach since the line can give you extra time to cover up mistakes (or avoid passing altogether by opening up the run game).

    As far as the team chemistry part and how it applies to the line, it's definitely a real thing. Not to the point where they're cooking marshmallows together around a campfire, but you have to have 5 guys who knows how the other plays and what their assignments are. For instance, folks here say Incognito ruined out line's chemistry but that's complete BS....he's a smart lineman, tough as nails and a dependable teammate. He's also a piece of crap human and it's why Philbin cut him, but that has nothing to do with winning football games. You want rugged guys like that on your squad that will do anything to make the play.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    What will disappoint me greater than the overall record of the Dolphins this season will be the fans, including a good number of those here at thephins.
     
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  20. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I dont have unrealistic expectations... or had any expectations about the dolphins since Saban left..

    And saban didnt meet expectations but when you got a guy of that caliber here, expectations come with it..
     
  21. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've never played the game Key but can see that OL is the major unit that needs chemistry & solidity - when we had that 10 game stretch in 2016 when Jay ran wild, this was only possible due to the chemistry on that line. Having competent coaching staff can only lead to improvement, as talent will only take someone so far
     
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  22. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Would not at all be disappointed in a losing record.

    What would be disappointing is if we are getting consistently blown out, showing lack of effort or if Flores looks lost as a coach.
     
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  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Let's say there are two scenarios that could happen this coming season (obviously there are many more):

    A) The team goes 8-8, but nearly all of the wins are against poor competition, the team generally looks sloppy on both sides of the ball, and most of the wins are by a very narrow margin, and fueled by big mistakes by the opposition, luck with the bounce of the ball, wild unrepeatable plays, and weird weather.

    or

    B) The team goes 4-12, but most of the team looks really good in most of the wins and controls the game. And while the team looses a lot, the offense actually plays really well, Rosen clicks with the receiving corps and Gesicki more and more as the season goes on, and Drake looks good to the point that many are begging for the team to pay him and keep him on the team. The team ends up losing a lot of high scoring games because the defense can't rush the passer or stop the run.

    I'm taking scenario B with glee, and looking forward to what the team can do to build upon it and fill holes next offseason. Wins don't matter nearly as much as progress.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I agree B is way better (A is a nightmare scenario for me given its effect on draft status!). However, if Rosen starts clicking as the season goes on then he better play like a future franchise QB and leave no doubt about whether to pick a QB high in the 2020 draft. None of this maybe someday he'll make it type of hope like we had with Tannehill that might lead to a missed opportunity for picking a QB high.

    Also.. if Rosen DOES play like a true franchise QB as the season progresses, we're almost certainly not winning only 4 games. Statistically, league worst defense by points allowed leads to 4-12 when coupled with average passer rating. So if Rosen does a lot better than average, we're almost certainly winning 6+ games even with a terrible defense.
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Anything can happen. The Chiefs allowed the second most yards last season, the Browns allowed the third most, and the Falcons allowed the fifth most. All three of those teams are expected to have good to great offenses this coming season.

    Last year, the Falcons lost three consecutive games, while in the process Matt Ryan passed for 1078 yards, 8 TDs and no picks. Later, they lost five in a row while he passed for 1391, 9 TDs and 3 picks. I'm not saying that its likely that Rosen and the Fins can do those same sort of things, but its hardly without precedent. The year prior, Jameis Winston threw for 3504 yards, 19 TDs and 11 picks while the Bucs went 5-11. And in 2016, Phillip Rivers passed for 4386 yards, 33 TDs and 21 picks while the Chargers went 5-11. It happens.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Have to measure defenses by points allowed, not yards allowed. Also have to look at stats for the entire season, not just for a 3 or 5 consecutive game stretch. And over the entire season all those defenses were around 1 standard deviation below the mean by points allowed (all except the 2016 Chargers were actually better than 1 S.D. below the mean), not the 2 standard deviations below the mean typical of league worst defenses. So those QB's weren't playing with anything close to a typical "league worst" defense.
     
  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I understand that you go much deeper into these things than I am capable of. However, would you not agree that if the Dolphins defense (or any team's) is giving up an enormous amount of yardage, that the offense will need to attempt to also put up a bunch of yards to keep pace? Now, this of course doesn't necessarily mean that the QB and/or offense as a whole are great, but it will tell you a lot more about them than if the team were to play a bunch of really low scoring games using an ultra conservative, Wanny style scheme.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Apparently it's not true (this is testable). The correlation between total offensive yards and total defensive yards over NFL history is -0.1106 so nearly zero. The square of that number tells you what percentage of one is due to the other, and that number is only 1.22%.

    So what that's telling you is that whether you look at only the worst teams, only the best teams or just the average ones you tend to not be able to predict yards allowed from yards gained, and vice versa. Intuitively, the reason is that you need to match points not yards to win the game, and giving up a ton of yards while giving up few points means you can play more conservatively to win the game.
     
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  29. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    IMO it's not so much about just yards as it is about yards, TOP and/or points. If an offense acts a quick strike force or if they at least control the clock or march down the field making the other offense wait or have to go far themselves to score that can offset a defense giving up yards. The Pats have been fairly average in terms of yards during their dynastic run, but generally have been good in terms of points allowed by the end of the season (they do tend to start of slowly in points allowed prompting those "is the Pats' dynasty over" articles often at the beginning of the season).
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Pats are a good example of why points > yards as a measure of offense or defense. They've been one of the best in yards on offense and all over the place in yards on defense while being one of the best in both points scored and points allowed during the Brady/Belichick era:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/index.htm

    Ultimately the game is won or lost based on point differential so points are what matter.

    Where stats like yards and TOP (as well as other stats) come into play is to help explain HOW that team got its point differential. In this respect yards are more informative than TOP because every team tries to run out the clock late in the game if it has a lead so having better TOP doesn't really tell you much about how teams differ. With yards it's not a priori clear which strategy a team will use. It would actually be nice to have a stat like TOP as a function of point differential which would show exactly how much of TOP is due to running out the clock late in the game. My suspicion is that most of TOP differential between winning and losing teams is due to running out the clock in the 4th quarter, just like with rushing attempt differential.

    So in terms of how informative a stat is, I think it's points > yards > TOP.
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I don't think that anyone is going to disagree with the notion that points scored is one of, if not the best indicator of how good a team is. However, sometimes the team's defense or special teams will gift fantastic field position to the offense, and allow them to score from 10 to 20 yards out. And that's great! And its also a sign of a really good team when they're able to take advantage of those situations and make it happen.

    However, I still feel that (again subjectively), if an offense can take the ball from deep in their own territory, run a number of plays, and achieve getting into their opponents' Red Zone, over and over, game after game, that is the sign that they are truly doing their own job. I think that far too often fans and the media focus on the teams that win the most, and give the offenses and quarterbacks on those squads too much credit, when there are always offensive units who get little to no support from their own defense and ST, but are just as good.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Absolutely. In fact, the correlation between total yards on offense and points scored is a whopping 0.8066 across NFL history.

    So why is the correlation between total offensive yards and win% 0.55 while it's 0.75 for points scored? Because settling for FG's (or coming away with no points from the Red Zone) makes a huge difference in the probability of winning. That 0.8066 correlation confirms that the more often you get into the Red Zone the more points you score. But how MANY points you score is crucial to increasing correlation to win%.

    So you should look not only at how consistent a team can move the ball, but also TD% in the Red Zone. And the weights on those two stats are approximately 2/3 on yards and 1/3 on TD% since the square of 0.8066 is 0.65 which is about 2/3.
     
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  33. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I really think that you are looking at things the wrong way. Fans need to be objective because like it or not, they have a role within a team. From time to time, it is in the fans' best interests to run people out of town. Believe it or not, fans have some responsibility to evaluate talent.

    First and foremost, I have zero issue with this being the year of Rosen. I fully think we should start him all 16 games regardless of whether or not this causes us to win fewer games. Objectively, I do not think that this is a playoff team, but objectively I think Rosen could be a franchise QB. Throughout the course of the year, I will be evaluating Rosen because at the end of the season, I want what is best for the Dolphins whether that be Rosen, Tua, or Herbert.

    Here is where being objective is paramount. I am not going to be a fanatic and say that our o-line is good. In fact, I objectively think that it is below average to bad. This impacts how I watch and critique Rosen. For years, I said that I wish Ryan Tannehill threw more incomplete passes. He held the ball too long and took too many sacks. If I see a less than idea completion percentage with Rosen, but witness him throw ball out of bounds because the pocket was collapsing on him, I am fine with that. Moreover, I am going to look at Rosen's accuracy from a clean pocket and see how it differs from a pocket collapsing in on him. Obviously, I will draw more information about Rosen based on a clean pocket.

    I am honestly telling you, if Rosen goes out week one and throws 4 INTs, I am not going to say anything. I will tell you it is to early to judge. What I really want to see is if by the end of the season Rosen is stringing together solid starts. His first 5 games to me are meaningless. His last five games will mean a lot. But the whole thing is a process. I for one look forward to seeing him grow and develop. This year is going to be more about that.

    There are a lot of things to get excited about that are not winning. We have a solid secondary. We could have one of the best secondaries for the next decade. I can't wait to see how coach Flo utilizes them. Objectively, I think our front seven is a cause for concern. There are certain guys that will probably be gone next year. I do wanna see if Flores can develop some of these guys. Baker had a solid freshman year, and Raekwon was up and down. I can't wait to see if Flores can help Raekwon become more consistent. Remember, this is the second year back from his ACL. A lot of time the first year back off an ACL is a down year. Maybe some of that speed comes back that made him a second round pick. Will there be a surprise player that Flo can develop? Maybe. For the first time in years, will we be able to stop the run? I can't wait to see the 3-4. I have been wanting it for years. I look forward to seeing what players' roles will be in this new defense. These are all things that I am excited about, but I will be objective about.

    Now think about O'Shea and Caldwell working with our offense. I am curious as to what our new offense will look like. Again, there is a lot to look forward to. I think that we have a lot of potential at RB, but I am objective about that line. I don't think that it is good. I have a theory that by adding Cox and Allen perhaps these players may be used as bandaids to help protect and run block. Will both of these coaches that have spent most of their careers working with established veterans be able groom a young QB with poor processing time? I plan to be quite objective about this. I really don't think that we should be running plays that take a long time to develop especially early on. I wanna see that ball getting out of Rosen's hands quickly. There will be a learning curve with these guys (especially O'Shea); however, I do expect to see progress. Don't forget Gase's loyalty to Matt Burke. That was a big part of his undoing. Gase was not objective with his own guys.

    All in all, I think that there is a lot to look forward to -
    #1 - Rosen
    #2 - Secondary
    #3 - RBs
    #4 - WRs
    #5 - Do we see progress in some of our weaker areas?

    Football is won and lost in the trenches and ours are not very good. We won't be winning a lot of games, but if we see progress, the turnaround could be quick. We have cap space and a ton of draft picks for next season. There is a lot to be excited about.

    This is the year of Rosen.
     
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  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    :knucks:
     
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  35. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why would I be disappointed...who in their right mind is expecting a winning season this year? Or even .500?
     
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  36. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    2019 will almost surely be the 10th time in the 11 years since Ross took over the team that we fail to finish with a winning record
     
  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I would say that in my 30+ years as a fan, I have only gone into a couple of years expecting a losing record. I generally look at a "good-case" scenario and think that the team can hit close to their ceiling. I'm not going to get on anyone's case for doing the same with their own imagination.

    However, the team's defense has been among the worst in franchise history the last few seasons, and now they've lost Wake and all semblence of a pass rush. If you can't rush the passer, you can't stop the run, you can't cover tight ends and you can't cover running backs in the pass game, then having some really good defensive backs isn't going to do a whole lot to scrape the defensive ranking from the bottom, and that's why I don't see them getting to .500 this year. However, I also don't have the extreme doom and gloom that others do. Most of the people who are saying 2-14 just really don't like Rosen, and that's their call to make. But I love him, and can't wait to see him in action every week.
     
  38. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    24,395
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    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    2008 First time head coach that no one else was lining up to hire
    2012 First time head coach that no one else was lining up to hire
    2016 First time head coach that had some other interest
    2019 First time head coach that had some other interest

    Maybe we're slowly moving in the right direction? By the time Ross hits triple digits, he'll eventually hire a HC who has some experience. :confused2:
     
    Drizzy likes this.
  39. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Oct 16, 2017
    High Point, NC
    I thought this was supposed to be the year of Flores?
     
  40. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Nov 23, 2007
    Lakeland, FL
    I will be very shocked if they even make it to 500. I honestly expect 6-10.
     

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