1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

How Many Of You Will Be Disappointed?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jul 1, 2019.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,061
    2,882
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    If you’re looking for a HoF caliber coach you’re looking in the first time HC basket. It’s really rare for HoF caliber HCs to be available for hire after their first HC gig. Don Shula was hired away from the Colts by promoting him from HC to HC/GM/part owner. Vince Lombardi and Bill Parcells came back to coaching after retiring. BillBelichek was fired by Art Modell after the dumpster fire season when the Browns announced they were leaving Cleveland halfway through a season. Paul Brown was sacked after a Power struggle with Art Modell.

    Edit to add:
    It’s like trying to find a HoF QB. The best way is in the draft. Once a team has a HoF caliber QB or HC they almost never let them go.
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2019
  2. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

    12,435
    4,990
    113
    Oct 13, 2008
    New York
    Cbrad, this is not meant to be a shot at you. I dig your posts and I especially dig the ones when you are are just sharing your gut reaction thoughts or whatever. I know stats are your thing and you like to show off your acumen in that field. They certainly serve a need, but man........some of you put an awful lot of work into arriving at some pretty common sense conclusions. So, yeah, scoring more points than your opponent is certainly the best way to tell if you won the game and in a game of yardage and points, gaining more yards than your opponent certainly gives you the best chance of scoring more points and yeah, if you have the ball more, your offense has more opportunities to score more points. We agree!! :tt1: ...... holy poop.
     
    Hooligan and KeyFin like this.
  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

    33,556
    23,488
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Sparano had some other interest.

    And Gase was the new hotness that everyone wanted.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    6,978
    7,753
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah it's good when common sense and stats agree.. they don't always though which is one way stats can be informative (like that infamous "defense wins championships" claim which turns out, at least on average but not for every game of course, to be false).

    I think in this debate the value of stats is its ability to quantify the relative importance of points vs. yards. Common sense tells you points > yards but it won't tell you by how much. The square of the correlations to win% allow you to estimate that points are about (0.75^2)/(0.55^2) = 1.86 times more important than yards. So I think that's how it adds to the discussion.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,742
    7,522
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    The "pattern" clearly says to get rid of the owner.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  6. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

    12,435
    4,990
    113
    Oct 13, 2008
    New York
    You so super funky.

    I don't go for the defense wins championship statement. I think it is a pointless comment, but I don't take it too seriously. I would hate to imagine that those who say it do, but whatever. You know what wins championships? ..the offense, the defense, special teams, coaching, trainers, doctors, equipment people, cafeteria cooks, massage therapists, medications, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc...
    To what degree they contribute to the winning is pretty much common sense and somewhat pointless to go through the work of attempting to quantify them. Anyway, I'm just messin' around. No offense. Have at it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2019
  7. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    678
    602
    93
    Jan 2, 2016
    I'm going to be 100% honest. I am probably going to give him an "incomplete" evaluation this year unless I see some sort of rare combination of disaster and disorganization that I saw with Cam Cameron.

    First of all, defense is Flores's specialty, and we are in the middle of a transition from 4-3 to 3-4. If you look at our starting front 7 today and asked, "How many of our starters will be starters next year?" The answer could honestly be 3. I would guess Raekwon, Baker, and Wilkins. I think Kiko will not be retained at the end of the year, and it is entirely possible he gets traded in-season to a playoff contender. Aside from Kiko, I don't think that any of these other guys will go on to be starters elsewhere.

    Again, these is where being objective really comes in handy. I understand our secondary is exceptional, but the game is won in lost in the trenches, and we really don't even have a known commodity as a pass rusher. Honestly, from a pure talent standpoint, we have gotten worse by losing Wake and Quinn. If I objectively think that the talent is not there, how could I really hold it against him if we get eaten alive at the line? Based solely on the fact that Flores is competent, I expect to see a better defense than with Burke, but beyond that, I just don't expect a lot.

    In my mind, a "win" for Flores would be if Godchaux, Taylor, Harris, or Van Ginkel emerged as a solid starter. These guys are all young and have potential. I look forward to seeing if Flores can develop these guys. If he can go 1-4, that is honestly pretty good.

    On the offensive side of the ball, I objectively understand the line is bad. Simply moving the ball and sustaining drives would be a positive for me. I am so sick of 3 and outs. At the end of the day, like I mentioned before, if we can see Rosen string together 4 or 5 solid consecutive outings, the year would be a success. If Rosen crashes and burns, I am not going to be hyper critical of Flores either. Maybe Rosen just isn't the answer. We should have the ammo to go get a highly coveted prospect next year.

    Give Flores a honeymoon year. The roster needs to churn.
     
    Surfs Up 99 and Irishman like this.
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,742
    7,522
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Because someone actually said out loud, "Wake or Quinn are a bad fit for this team in 2019...let's trade them both!" If we get dominated at the line, that person needs to be on a hot seat immediately since they set the organization back several years to....wait for it....to acquire cap space and a 3rd round compensation pick. Good luck replacing the talent levels of Wake AND Quinn with one 3rd rounder....

    The exact same standard should be held to the offensive line as well. Getting rid of injury prone starters is one thing, but you do have to at least attempt to replace them. If you don't, then you ABSOLUTELY need to be held accountable at the end of year one. Because if you give that person a 3 year pass under the title of "rebuilding", then we're just as likely to be back in the same mess we've seen for the past 15+ years.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    23,199
    23,108
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Look, we all know that Wake has been the best player on the franchise the past decade. And we all appreciate how much he meant to the team, as not only an awesome player, but also a awesome guy both on and off the field. But he's going to be 38 years old, and he's been on the slow decline. He had one sack during the first eight games last season, and 1.5 (in the same game) the last five. He wasn't going to be the difference between the Fins making the playoffs this year or not, so I have no trouble letting him try and achieve that goal in more or two more seasons as a situational pass rusher somewhere else. He earned the right.

    Quinn actually got better as the year went on, with 5.5 sacks in the final seven games. He's also not that old, at 29. But he's expensive, and the new coaches and front office likely felt that he wasn't the best fit for the new system.

    Without replacing them, it likely means that we'll have close to zero pass rush. I've come to terms with it. Its going to be ugly. But you know what? We allowed the 6th most points, the 4th most yards, the 2nd worst yards per play, the 7th most first downs, the 7th most passing touchdowns, the 2nd most rushing yards, the 6th most rushing touchdowns, the 7th worst yards per carry, the 5th worst third down percentage, the 5th most Red Zone touchdowns, had the 4th fewest sacks, and had the 4th fewest QB hits with them here.

    We already sucked, and we're going to suck more. The young guys who are left will either step up and prove they belong, or they'll be gone next. I expect the revamp of the defense to be a long and painful process, but when you're already at the bottom, then thats the best time to start over.
     
    tirty8 likes this.
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,742
    7,522
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I can't disagree- we were awful last season. And yes, Wake is definitely declining at the back end of his career. I agree with everything you said....it's what you didn't say that's the problem. You just can't gut a roster without bringing in replacements.
     
    Hooligan likes this.
  11. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    678
    602
    93
    Jan 2, 2016
    Another poster said made the point that Wake was getting older, and Quinn was expensive with a back problem. With Quinn, the decision had to be made prior to the draft. I know the Phins were high on Montez Sweat. I do think his heart condition probably played a part in the Phins passing on him. The class was pretty loaded with edge talent, and in a lot of scenarios, we probably could have ended up taking an edge guy.

    I don't think that you put the best team on the field every single year. I think that is coachspeak. The reality of the situation is that the cap plays a big factor free agent acquisitions. Wake will be under contract until he is 39. There is a real chance that he could see rapid decline in those years, and the Titans could be stuck holding the bag with a big contract. Remember when we signed Mario Williams? We had to pay him for two years, and he essentially played a half of a season. That was a very short-sighted move.

    Will Flores and Grier be held accountable for letting these guys go? Absolutely not. Ross flat out said, it is a rebuilding process. It is going to take some time. I do think that saying that the defense has gotten worse, and holding people accountable is short-sighted. Think of it more like this. The team getting worse is the first domino to fall; however, the gain in cap space is the second domino to fall. Now, suppose next offseason, we sign Clowney. I would gladly pay more to get a solid young edge guy in his prime over both of their contracts. I think that you kinda have to watch this whole thing play out.

    I will be the very first person to critique the Dolphins if it doesn't look like they have a plan, or they are poorly executing the plan. Both Philbin and Gase never really took the offensive line seriously. It seems like we could hit on first round talent - Pouncy, Tunsil, and James, but there is a long, long list of mid to late round guys that we relied on (this is a big part of the problem) that really never panned out. It felt like we would always get one or two solid players, and three or four scratch off tickets. Their plan was hope, and it was a stupid plan.

    Just give it a little time.
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  12. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,747
    3,320
    113
    Dec 9, 2012
    I think the staff is starving for that dynamic inside/outside guy ala Trey Flowers. I just don't know how many prospects can handle that load, but Flowers was a mid-round pick, so hey. I'd be interested in looking to see who fits that mold in the 2020 draft, outside of the first round because we may be picking a QB there. We're going to see some truly wholesale defensive personnel changes next year to go 1:1 in the Patriots mold. @Disgustipate suggested we may see a defense more similar to the 2018-2019 Packers this year as opposed to the 2018-2019 Patriots.
     
    Disgustipate likes this.
  13. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    26,797
    35,335
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Why do you immediately need exact, in-kind replacements?

    I don't think they really had a great opportunity to spend big resources on guys that fit exactly what they wanted(edges who can cover/play OLB, or who can play some 3-technique). If you're got the opportunity towards building towards what you want, what is the urgency to compromise?

    Meanwhile, I think you've got to consider the opportunity cost of keeping Quinn and Wake- You're talking $15-20m in 2019(plus Wake got multiple years on his deal with Tennessee). You didn't spend that money this year, but it's cap space you can roll over that certainly is going to factor into your budget for the position moving forward. Do you now have the flexibility of say, spending more money on someone like Leonard Williams in 2020?
     
    djphinfan and Unlucky 13 like this.
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,742
    7,522
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    You don't need exact replacements...but you do have to have starting caliber players on the field at least. I'm not sure we have that on either side of the trenches. To me personally, that's how you tank without tanking...you just don't field a team that can consistently stop the run or pressure the QB.

    Maybe we compensate through scheme and the LB's play a huge role in controlling the LOS. I'm hoping that's the case, but I don't think it's out of line to question the moves we've made either.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    5,742
    7,522
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I agree- in the off-season it's definitely a chess match in planning for your next several seasons. My only problem is that the king in that chess match (the QB) needs time to throw and develop in our system. Rosen got destroyed last year and played "meh" overall, which may or may not be his fault due to the pressure. But if we're playing a 3-season chess game here, how do we properly evaluate him in 2019 without a starting-caliber guard in sight? And if we let him develop while Fitz gets slaughtered out there, how do we know whether or not to take a QB in round 1 next season?

    Remember, Tannehill is possibly the best QB in the league IN PRACTICE when nobody is hitting him...but that didn't translate to the field in pressure situations. So we have to get Rosen quality reps this season and we're relying on two rookies to develop quickly to make that happen. That's a huge gamble.

    Back to Wake and Quinn- I'm definitely not saying we need to spend that $20M for a straight swap on other players. Maybe our new defense won't be geared off of pressure around the corner like the Wide-9 was designed to do...I honestly don't know. But I am worried about the quality of the pass rush we'll be able to generate with young players that have had limited playing time. Of course, my feelings are hurt as well since we all love Wake so much...how could anyone not want him to retire a Dolphin after all the great memories?
     
  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    23,199
    23,108
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    I think that a lot of Dolphins fans would have been happier had Wake simply chosen to retire and walk away after a great, long career as a Dolphin. But the Titans were willing to offer him a three year deal, with 7.25m guaranteed, so I can understand if he wanted a bonus before stepping away. There's a really good chance that this will be his last season, since his cap hit jumps from 5.3m this season up to 8.5m next year, and the Titans can save about 6m but cutting him.

    We don't love JT or ZT any less because they basically chose to do the same thing years ago when the Fins changed management. Its unfortunate, but its been going on for generations.
     
    Irishman likes this.

Share This Page