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How would you approach the Ravens?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Colmax, Dec 2, 2016.

  1. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    I'm just interested in seeing what you guys would do or what you think Miami would do against this team.

    Maybe we can revisit post-game to see who gets it close.
    ___________

    On offense:

    I think these quick passes will be key early to tire out those pass rushers. Tanny has gotten better in not having passes batted down, so he'll have to be spot on this game as well. Miami seems to lack a good screen game, but I hope it starts to come to form. Screens are important. Not sure Ajayi is one to use on these. Maybe Drake or Williams.

    Tanny needs to really keep his head on a swivel this game and continue to use his feet. While it's nice having BA and Tunsil back, I'm becoming more suspect with Albert's ability to block really good pass rushers, but I guess he's better than our backups. Hope he agrees to take a pay cut and move over because we have a Porsche 918 Spyder to his right that's waiting to be driven around the Nürburgring.

    I'm anxious to see how much Drake is used this game and if he can make an impact not only on STs, but also on offense.

    IF Caroo gets some good looks, I wonder if he'll take away some throws from Marquis Gray. I can see him being used on similar routes. I mentioned in another thread that he kind of reminds me of Enunwa from the Jets. Would be nice to have a weapon like that. I do hate that Parker is gone. Hope he gets well soon. But it may be a good thing because Miami may not get a lot of time to throw. He seems to have the ability to break tackles.

    Dion Sims needs to get back to blocking better. He missed a couple last game. I can see him becoming more of a weapon in the passing game in the red zone. Big dude with good hands. I'm surprised he hasn't been used more. Maybe he was starting to catch on until the concussion, then it put him behind a little?

    While everyone seems to be talking about the Raven defense, they are failing to mention the Miami offense. If BA and Tunsil can connect, I think they can open holes just big enough for Jay. Ajayi looked a little off last week, so he's primed for another good week like from a few weeks ago. Tanny is playing sound football, yet he's getting overlooked. I think he has to continue to play this well here on out for people to finally jump in his corner. His passes, even downfield, have been really crisp and accurate.

    On Defense:

    I actually think Miami has the advantage here. Maybe it's just me.

    Flacco can get you some first downs with his legs if he has to, but he's no Kaepernick. I can see 3+ sacks in this game. The key will be if Wake or someone else can get a strip sack and recovery. It seems as though this might be a close one, so any advantage must be taken advantage of.

    I don't know much else about their offense other than Mike Wallace is there. Not sure he's really worth mentioning.

    On STs:

    Waste of a HUGE return by Drake last week. This certainly cannot happen EVER again. Darr has been super, and there's nothing bad I can really say about the coverage guys. Also, apparently Darr enjoys holding Franks' balls.

    I'm not sure that Grant should be on punt returns. Yes, he's a rook, but it has happened one too many times for my liking. Keep Landry back there. Landry has the ability to break one, and maybe he does it again this year? It's not ideal because of his importance on offense, but it may have to be the case from here on out.
    ___________

    While the Ravens have a typical Ravens D, I don't think Miami is coming to a gun fight with a knife. I'm suspect about the middle-to-right side of the line, but Tanny has been solid in avoiding pressure. He has to continue this. I think it will be fun to watch. And I hope they can come out firing. I'm tiring of these slow starts.

    I think over this six game stretch, Miami is leading the league in fourth quarter scoring. That's actually really nice, but I'd also like some first quarter scoring as well. I want Miami to jump on these guys and continue swinging until their arms feel like rubber. They may need it in a hostile environment.

    Winning THIS GAME will go a long way in how this team continues for the rest of the season. They really have to have a "win or go home" mindset for this game. Because if they don't win, they may be fighting that much harder just to make it into the postseason.
     
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  2. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    if Albert and Tunsil are back, we should be able to accomplish what we want on offense
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think the game plan going into this is simple and Gase himself has said it dozens of times- pound the football with Ajayi. We got away from that in recent weeks with a banged up line, but getting Tunsil and Albert back is HUGE for our team. If you can remember back a month ago shortly after this streak began, Ajayi put up over 200 yards against the best run defense at the time. I'm not quite expecting that tomorrow but if he can get 100+, then we will win this contest by double digits.

    I think you're wrong about how we will use Tannehill as well; I'm expecting mostly screens and short passes with the occasional run/bootleg. He will be rolling out about a half dozen times though and aiming for Stills in the end zone...I almost think that this will be the first game we connect with him twice. Parker will be a factor but mainly as a decoy; I think he's hurting more than the team is saying. That's just me reading between the lines though- I haven't heard anyone suggest that directly.

    The star of this game will be Flacco as well; he's never been good under pressure and we will bring a lot of it. We should win the turnover game in this one and I think it will lead to some easy points.

    I'm predicting Fins up 34-14 in our first convincing win of the season.
     
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  4. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    I don't see where we disagree here.

    So you think we'll win that convincingly IN Baltimore? I hope you're right, but from games I've seen in the past, it can get rowdy up there. And if Miami can't get Jay going early, it could be pretty tough. I'd like to see a score of some kind on the first drive, though. I could honestly see a play action deep early. Maybe even the first play if the defense gives the right look.

    Does anyone know if weather will be a factor?
     
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  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    On offense I think you might see a similar game plan to Seattle. Screens close the LOS and quick outs to slow down the pass rush. With Ajayi having Tunsil's and Albert back I can see Gase sticking with the run all through the game, so even if he doesn't put up huge numbers it should prevent the Ravens from flooding the short pass zones. We should see 2 or 3 genuine home run threats by Stills and it is going to be vital to connect on those shots.

    On defense there isn't a lot that scares me about the Ravens. We of course have to respect Wallace's speed. If the Ravens get a lead they will try to grind time off the clock with the running game so we need to have our LBs keyed up to be stout against the run.
     
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  6. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    The short passing game is a main staple of our O, so I think that part is a given, but I think this game taking deep shots is even more important. If we rely on the short pass and run game, we are playing right into the teeth of this Ravens D, we need to get them off the balls of their feet, because if their D can play downhill all day I don't see us winning.

    So imo, whether they work or not, you have to keep taking downfield shots, which might create some cracks of daylight in the front 7.

    I'm worried about Flacco and WRs, we don't have anyone that can run with Wallace, one deep catch by anyone could be the difference in this game, or any type of big play, and Wallace is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, Smith is also capable of big plays and or big games.

    They have a couple WRs that are capable of exploding at any time, while we have a secondary that can give up plays at any time, not all the time, but we all know they can give up a play or 2, this may very well be the difference in this game.

    Flacco, he's having an off year, my fear is that he starts putting it all together this week, they are playing for their playoff lives, as we all know, this type of situation has brought it out of him in the past.

    I'm not predicting he'll do it, I have no clue, just that he's done it in the past, BUT, if he does go into Flacco A mode, I don't see us having much of a chance in this game, that is what scares me most about their O, Flacco pulling a Flacco.

    The strongest parts of each of our teams clash here, our run game vs their run D, this is what each of us do best as a team, they quite possibly cancel each other out, their run game is not good.

    Their biggest strength on O is big play WRs, our biggest strength on D is not defending the pass, but it is rushing the passer, keeping Flacco off balance with the passrush could be our key to victory.

    The Ravens have the X factor in this game, Flacco, if he pulls a "Flacco", I don't see us having much of a chance in this game, but if things remain status quo, I think we have a good shot.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Flacco's had more than just an off year. Arguably he's been off 2 years in a row. Did you know that Flacco's last game where he had at least 2 more TD's than INT's was in 2014?? His average ratings are now well below NFL average, and importantly, so is his TD% (absurdly low).

    So I think this decline with Flacco we're seeing is real. I mean the highest rating he's put up this year is 100.3 and last year it's 103.3. I haven't looked through all starting QB's, but that's pretty pathetic for any QB you'd consider even average. It's hard to find the best rating in a season for a starting QB be that low. So I'm predicting Flacco won't be the reason Ravens win. If they win it'll be their defense.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
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  8. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    Play action out of run formations to start the game. Get Tanny moving and instead of roll outs for short pass gains,get a long pass in there somewhere. This, to me will get the Ravens to make early adjustments. Then pound the rock with AJ.
    Sounds simple,huh? ...lol
     
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  9. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    You may be right, but I'm not ready to call the dog dead just yet.

    There are some odd stats here if he's lost it, so to speak, first off, the Ravens sucked last year, and Flacco got injured, so there never was a time where he had any opportunity to be in a playoff race last year.

    Flacco's completion % has been the highest of his entire career these past 2 years, that would be odd for a QB who has lost it, his yds per game is normal this year, 261(he's 14th in yds), completing 63.3 %, which the second highest of his career, it's the TD/INT ratio that is killing him.

    So doing a deeper statistical analysis, you can see that it doesn't all point to him having lost it so to speak, the data seems to point more towards this just being an extended bad stretch of luck with his TD/INT ratio.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, it's mostly his TD% that's changed. The other stuff is within his normal variability so you really can't say his completion % was in any meaningful way higher or lower than his average at any point in his career. Well we'll see what happens.
     
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  11. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think we do enough play-action on first downs, especially early in games. I don't see the run game taking off until the second half, but it would be nice to get a big play or two while the Ravens are focused on stopping the run, get a lead, and then do more running than passing.
    If the Unicorn line was intact, I'd be cool with just lining up and running it from the first snap, as Jay would break a big run at some point.

    As for Flacco? Maybe he is nervous after his injury? Dropping his eyes to the pass rush and not looking for the open man? If we can get some early hits, get in his head, he won't see the field very well. Tanny has done so well lately since he is determined to complete passes, even as he is taking big hits. If anything, he is too focused on passing at times and not taking off running when needed.

    Even with a loss, the Ravens have a decent shot at winning their division, so this is not a 'must win' game for them. Looking ahead, they have to feel better about their chances against the Pats with Gronk out, so maybe they take a 'we only have to win one of these' approach to their Dolphin/Pats games?
     
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  12. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I have to disagree with the bolded Brad, stats tell us otherwise.

    His career % is 61.1, '15 and '16 combined is 63.8, nearly 3 full points higher, that is a clear difference, but it's more telling than that, his career % up to '14 was 60.5, his % these past 21 games has raised his career % by .6 points, which is substantial, since it has affected the % of the prior 112 games, so he's actually played at nearly 4 points higher % these past 2 years than he had his entire career.

    Flacco's highest % of his career was in '15, his second highest is this year, he's only had 3 seasons where he completed over 63%, this year and last year is the only time in his career he has done that in back to back years(the other was back in 09), and that is starting to resemble a pattern.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    You don't eyeball these things. You have to actually do a hypothesis test. Specifically, you do something called a 2-sample t-test to determine the probability two sets of numbers (in this case completion percentages) come from the same distribution.

    So, if you do that on Flacco's completion percentages from 2008-2014 regular season compared to 2015-2016 you get a p-value (probability of observing the result by chance if the hypothesis both come from the same distribution is true) of 14.4%. Unless the p-value is 5% or less statisticians will generally not reject the (null) hypothesis (in rarer cases you see 10% as the threshold.. but this doesn't get past that either).

    So from a purely statistical point of view you can't claim his 2015 and 2016 completion percentages are "significantly different" than what he had before.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
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  14. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I still have to disagree Brad, the test you propose isn't necessary because we have the actual data.

    Over the past 2 years, his % is up by about 4 points, this is a point of fact that can't be argued, now it's opinion whether that's significant, for the sake of argument what we can say is, that it's not a typical sign of a QB in decline, and that it also doesn't mean he isn't in decline.

    In '11, after week 9 he was having an awful season, 9 TDs 7INTs, horrible rating in the 70's, his final 7 games he had a 92 rating, he ended up with an 80 rating.

    He's done it before is all I'm saying, and this is the X factor they have imo.
     
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  15. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Finster, what about his yards-per-attempt? Or yards-per-pass or whatever they call it? Is Flacco just dumping the ball off with short passes (hence the completion numbers being up these past two years)?
     
  16. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    I usually approach them quietly so they don't fly away.
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've always seen the Ravens as a streaky team...when they play well, they play awesome. But that's not the team that usually shows up and they've given up more times than not this season. So if we start out hot (which is a big if), I can see this one getting away from the Ravens. But if the reverse happens and we fall behind, I think this team has enough grit to fight their way right back in it. That's sort of been our mantra lately anyways....but we haven't had Tunsil and Albert in those contests.

    But yeah, if Parker is even halfway healthy and we can establish the run, I can see this being a statement game for the Fins. We are a team with so many darn "ifs" though....the injuries have been brutal this season.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Anyone can have a great game after a bad stretch so of course I'm not saying it's impossible he could play lights out. The question is about probabilities not possibilities. And there are two key stats that seem abnormal. One is TD% this year and the other is max passer rating over last two years. The other stats, including his completion percentage, are within normal variance (that's not opinion).

    Even in 2011 during that really bad first 9 games, his TD% wasn't bad and he had two games with 3 TD's and 0 INT's (he hasn't had a single game last 2 years with 2 more TD's than INT's), and his max rating during that time was still a respectable 117.6.

    So no he hasn't done this before, even when his average rating was the same as recently. Anyway, we'll see what happens.
     
  19. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Sorry Brad, if you have a variance that says he's completing the same amount, the variance is wrong, he's 4 points higher, that is significant, if you go from 60% to 64%, that is significant, that is moving from below avg to avg.

    In '11, he was poor in the first 9 games, what matter is it that he had 2 good games, he had 4 games where he threw more INTs than TDs, with a rating around 74, and those 9 TDs in 9 games wasn't a good TD%, very similar to this year in fact.

    Then he was good in the final 7 games, 11TDs and a 92 rating, zero games where he threw more INTs, and zero games where he threw 2 more TDs than INTs, for what that's worth.

    So yes he has gone past a half season playing poorly and turned it around, which is the whole point.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Variance matters (and btw.. the variance isn't "wrong".. the variance is a property of the data). Suppose you have a distribution of numbers where the mean is 61 and the variance is 1, meaning about 2/3 of the values are between 60 and 62, and 95% of the values are between 59 and 63. THEN, if you get a 64 that's statistically significant.

    But change the variance, say to 3. Then your 64 is within a range where it's not as unlikely. Or take a more extreme case where the variance is higher and 64 is even more commonplace. Of course variance matters! That's why you have to do statistical tests to see if something is significantly different from the mean or not, and Flacco's completion percentage is still within the expected range.

    Max passer rating is worth looking at precisely because it measures a performance ceiling. You look at max passer rating for Flacco from 2008-2014 and you get 120.2, 135.6, 129.6, 117.6, 128.4, 112.6, 149.7.

    But for 2015-2016 you get 103.3 and 100.3. The probability those two sets come from the same distribution is 2.7%!! For a statistician that's sufficient to reject the hypothesis that they come from the same distribution, meaning it's evidence Flacco changed. So yes it's worth looking at that.

    Finally.. the 7 games you mention is just 7 games. Find me a 21 game stretch like the last 2 years where he didn't have at least 2 more TD's than INT's.

    Point is.. on most key stats Flacco is still the same QB as before, but there are 2 stats where he isn't and it does suggest he is regressing at least a little bit (he doesn't seem to be significantly better in other key stats to compensate).
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
  21. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    Ray Lewis came out a few weeks ago criticizing Flacco for his lack of leadership and fire. While I could really care less what Lewis has to say, his point is likely valid. He even pointed out that Flacco sits solo on the bench.

    I don't know if this is typical for QBs, but it seems odd considering how many players suit up. While this was a criticism from Lewis' playing days, if he's currently not connecting with his guys, it may have a negative impact on team cohesion, which could leak onto the field.

    Anyway, statistical analyses aside, can we point to something definitive as to why he's in this statistical slump?

    While it is likely just not one thing, one has to wonder after Lewis' comments if Flacco has sort of mentally "checked out".

    Think about it, regardless of occupation or salary, sometimes you sort of fall into it. I call it 'wishin I was fishin' syndrome.

    If there is a renewed energy for Flacco, I just hope it's not during tomorrow's game. He can still be dangerous.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I don't think Flacco suddenly forgot how to play QB. If I had to guess I'd say he's just not fully recovered from his injuries. I mean he had knee surgery and he had a right shoulder injury this year. Of course, the Ravens have also had a bunch of injuries on the OL and at WR and their running game is crap. But normally Flacco can overcome that stuff to some degree, so I think it's HIS injuries.

    That's nothing definitive but that would be my guess.

    btw.. regarding Lewis's comment.. wasn't Flacco the way he is now when he had that great SB run?
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
  23. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not seeing a convincing win here on the road in Baltimore like maybe some are. I just don't think that happens all that often there. They do need to go out and make a statement early though. I could see some shots down the field coming pretty early. You want the Ravens on their heels, you definitely don't want them dictating anything because I think they're still better than some people give them credit for. The Baltimore crowd is pretty rowdy but if you can jump all over the guys in purple you can take them out of the game just like any other home crowd. I think we've got a good shot at this one. If Tannehill isn't getting hit too much we win. He's for the most part played much better than Flacco this season and they've got no Ajayi either. Justin Tucker is ridiculous so hopefully their offense won't have a shot late within 3 points. 27-20 Miami or something close to that is what I'm thinking.
     
  24. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is probably the least talented offense Flacco has ever been a part of. I mean they have Wallace and Steve Smith but outside of that not a whole lot. Flacco has always been the way he is now. Some Baltimore fans haven't actually liked the guy a lot, even when they were doing really well.
     
  25. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    Ah, didn't know about the shoulder. Could still be harboring some injuries which can certainly have an impact on play. Not sure if this is the only thing, though.

    Regarding the Lewis statement; you're correct. I was intentionally careful with my wording, leaving it open to supposition.

    With that, the players from that team did have Ray Lewis as a leader, so Flacco's demeanor could have simply been overshadowed. Typically, just by nature of the position, a QB plays the role of leader on a football team. But because, with a big new contract post a SB MVP, and with Lewis' retirement, the keys were given to Flacco whether he wanted them or not.

    To be quite honest, I could have expounded by quite a stretch on this possible scenario m, but I kind of don't care. I don't even know why I went in-depth on this in the first place. Haha

    He could continue sucking it up for the rest of the year for all I care. But I especially hope it holds true for tomorrow.
     
  26. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Flacco's lingering issues are definitely related to his knee. Stop looking at the box score to figure this one out and just watch the Ravens play ball.

    Flacco isn't stepping into his throws consistently and the result is sporadic dirt balls and air mail.
     
  27. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Then you would figure that his comp% would be lower than normal, but it's actually higher than normal, and his numbers are extremely similar to last year before he got injured.

    It's pure Joe Flacco, the guy has always been a mystery, Deputy Droopalong turns into Underdog at the drop of a hat, idk.
     
  28. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Token Gay Dolfan

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    the ravens org is obsessed with physically asserting dominance. they fancy themselves as bullies.

    you deal with a bully by punching them in the mouth.

    get after flacco on the edge, he is a atatue and their ol blows. shade a safety to wallace.

    on d, attack the outside not the gut
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well Finster, you win a round! (sad for us all, but still..)

    Flacco just had to choose THIS game to do stuff he hasn't done in a long while!@! What would make me feel even worse is if this turns out to be the only game this season where he has at least 2 more TD's than INT's and a rating at least 110+, etc.. Oh btw.. regarding completion %, his 76.6% in this game was his highest single-game completion % since 2011!!
     
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  30. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Don't give me too much credit Brad, lol, I didn't predict it, I didn't have any inkling at all in either direction, would it be Average Joe or Mighty Joe? The only thing I can really take credit for was saying that if Mighty Joe showed up we wouldn't have a chance in this game.

    It was a reality check game, but it was also a "quicksand" game, things spiraled out of control and I don't think it's totally indicative of this teams ability to perform vs good teams, we can and will do better in the coming weeks, but we aren't there yet, QB is still a big ?, but he will have a chance to redeem himself.
     
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