This is definitely good news for us East Coasters. Good luck to you folks down South and on the Southwest coast. Let's hope Ike loses some steam on his way over.
Hey now, us 954s can be happy too. Here's hoping it weakens, regardless of where it lands. I believe it's already lost some steam compared to past measurements--is this right?
Hurricane hunter mission Ike number 1 is underway out of St. Croix. They staged the plane there yesterday I think. Anyway, they found on the first pass winds of 108 knots (124 mph) and a central pressure of 959 millibars. You can watch the missions in near real time by clicking the link.. it should take you into google earth.. it loads the current missions into " Places " that's where you can manipulate the window. Hurricane hunter mission #1 into Ike
yes, it is expected. Dr. Masters hurricane blog keeping in mind Ike has already performed an unexpected, unforeseen rapid intensification act. It may go down as number 2 all time..
Wishing everybody down South and up the East Coast will be safe throughout this and if in its way..prepared. I know it is not as important as the safety of everyone..but on a small note..How bad does the forecast look in Miami at Sunday 1pm?...thanks
Far as I can tell there's not much threat of anything on Sunday. Weather forecast still says 10% chance of rain. High of 90 degrees. Not sure what the humidity is going to be. Looks like a classic hot, humid day in Miami...the kind that has produced the deadliest September home record in the NFL.
I'm not sure.. it is forecast to be 90f and partly cloudy. I'm not sure how far of a reach Ike will have, but he will be 550 miles away so I doubt he will be controlling local weather yet. My concern is that the hurricane watch may move officials to shut the contest down if they think it will interfere in any way with evacuations. I cannot see how it would but politicians..
I still think it swings a bit further south than a lot of the projections forecast. Man, Cuba's been absolutely battered this year.
Models as of 11PM tonight. The models continue to shift the storm farther south and west. STILL to early to tell where it'll end up going but it sure is more promising than having all the models targeting us in it's sites. This thing may miss FL. completely. Heck the Latest models should have New Orleans right back on red alert.
Man that block model scares the living hell out of me and I'm in C. FL. I feel so bad for the Gulf Coast.
Ha! Cat 2 now! The shear is tearing it up. Would be nice if that shear kept at it till it hit Cuba which would tear it up even more. This is why it dosen't pay to get worked up to early about these things. Way too much uncertainty in track and storms holding and gaining strength. It's what makes these things fascinating in addition to being a pain in the arse.
The black one showed a sharp cut northward right over Florida the other day, so the fact that it's now in agreement with the others is encouraging. Looks like we're in good shape.
The blue is the GFDL, which has proven over the last couple years, and this season, to be the most accurate.. when the GFDL points at me I get nervous too Chris. I'm not sure penninsular Florida is out of the woods yet, but my heart palpitations aren't nearly as strong now.
Wow... Marty..the wind shears that are hammering the storm now...will those be different after it gets out into the Gulf.... Just looked at this...kinda scary...almost mirrors the same exact path as Katrina....
Katrina was much weaker when it went through the Florida straights....Ike will be stronger....anything to this? Does it make any difference long term?
VT.. I had a nice post going and my damned 'puter froze.. The shear has gone from 25 to 15mph and Ike has re-intensified to cat 4. Here is the current nhc track; Ike is about to become a killer. He will soon be affecting the Turks and Caicos with high winds and storm surge. Hispaniola, which suffered Fay down the center, and Gustav which stalled almost on Port au Prince will now get another huge rain event. Ike will be dropping rain on an already flooded island, and will likely take more lives. The Hatians have gotten it bad this season. Next Ike will wreck those parts of Cuba that Gustav missed. The Cubans have a good weather service and they will be prepared.. as much as you can be for a cat 4. It's hard to hide from a cat 4.. not many places to go. If you have friends or relatives in Cube, I suggest you call them now, the infrastructure of Cuba is about to become 3rd world for awhile.
Yeh...I worry about the folks in Cuba for sure.....but...looking at the latest track....Im really scared for NOLA and LA.... Kinda puts things in perspective....politics..sports aside...this one wont be pretty.
Dr. Masters blog My son was born Aug 23 1985 in Brooksville, and when Elena was offshore I took my new son outside in the wind and rain, I then told him all about hurricanes and what they meant to a Florida boy.. his mother pitched a FIT....he promptly forgot it when Mom got him back and offered a teat. When a hurricane goes through an ERC, it is not always sucessful and it will disrupt things for awhile. Lets hope this happens before landfall in Cuba and they are spared some wrath. Here is the link to the tropical page at weather underground, you can find Dr. Masters blog on the right. Please explore all the hurricane info and read his blog. Tropical page, Weather Underground
PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos (AP) -- Hurricane Ike damaged most of the homes on Grand Turk island as it roared onto the Bahamas, raked Haiti's flooded cities with driving rain and threatened the Florida Keys on its way to Cuba as a ferocious Category 4 storm Sunday. Turks and Caicos premier Michael Misick said Ike damaged 80 percent of the homes on the main island and that hundreds lost their roofs as the hurricane made a near-direct hit. People have been cowering in closets and under stairwells and "just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad," he told The Associated Press Sunday morning. Ike blasts Turks and Caicos as Category 4 storm: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance This one is looking more and more scary as times goes on.
Good morning gang.. Ike is still a cat 4, about to cross Inagua Island in the Bahama's. From wikipedia Great Inagua Island, wikipedia If you inspect this island with Google earth the salt "pens" are huge in the harbour, (the rectangles in the light blue harbour)I would expect that this industry, as well as the inhabitants are about to have a very rough time.. Here is Ike from a Goes Floater in IR. You can see the beautiful symmetry, and the well defined eye.. sad that something so beautiful is such a killer. You can see that Great Inagua is about to get it bad.. Ike is pulling some dry air around and maybe, just maybe it will save Haiti some of the expected deluge.. The dry air could save lives there. This mornings models still puts the Florida Keys in danger. A cat 2 would over run many of the keys with surge. Here is a chart from Doc Masters blog. Doc Masters tropical page, Weather Underground Image credit: Dr. Stephen Baig, NOAA (retired). Here is this mornings spaghetti models; Here is the current NHC track; Please note that the track has pushed west some. Yesterday, the forecast landfall point was a Katrina like track at NOLA. Today, it looks more like a Rita.. Tex, heads up my brother.. Here is the link to the GFDL animation, and it's last frame, note the fine mesh grid shows Ike making landfall the exact same spot that Gustav came in on; 9 7 2008 GFDL animation Here is the HWRF model animation link and the last frame. This on is coming ashore in the Florida panhandle.. look out Dewey Destin; 9 7 2008 HWRF animation Soooo, my morning report should make peninsular Florida a little less nervous(do NOT write this bad boy off yet 305) but it increases the danger for all the GoMex. It would truly suck for this thing to make landfall in Louisiana.. they are still digging out from Gustav. There are some models that have Ike falling apart in the GoMex and coming ashore as a tropical depression.. I am afraid to offer what I consider false hope, for fear it might cause someone to not prepare, but I am crossing my fingers.
Holguin Cuba radar.. I am hoping this will stay current and we can watch landfall notice that Great Inguana Island took as direct a hit as you can.. bad news for those folks.
great..just peachy..that wasn't what i expected to hear when i got up today. i just unpacked from gustav because yesterday people were telling me it was heading to n.o or possibly missi... with the lack of support calcasieu parrish residents have recieved from our gov. alot of people can't/won't leave(if we are on our own as they have told us then us stubbern coon-***'s might as well stay here is the conscious right now. i missed a weeks worth of work already(4-500 bucks) i just paid bills..began living the normal life again you know..i just spent 800 bucks on a dryer because my old one went out the day we left our house for gustav. my sister should return from ohio today and boy is she going to be mad to have to turn around and make that trip again. come one come all there is a line already forming to kiss my butt goodbye.
Well Mino, it hurts me to report to you that things are once again looking towards a "Rita" like landfall for this storm. Keep your chin up bro.. The flooded city of Gonaives, Haiti after Hurricane Hanna, September 3, 2008. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti. Doc Masters says Haiti got walloped. You read Celtkins post about the Turks and Caicos, and I'm sure Great Inguana was similarly devastated as the eye made a direct hit there. Ike is destroying everything it gets close to. Next is Cuba. Ike has been working on an eye replacement cycle, Dr Masters comments on it. You can see that in the current radar loop from Holguin Cuba Here is a mimic loop showing the two concentric rings that Dr. Masters speaks of. This is microwave and it shows the suspended water. This gives information about eyewall structure not found anywhere else. Here is the current wind field; Here is a visible satellite image
Here is a radar loop from Camaguey Cuba, notice that the eye is running right down the 21 degree line, which is south of the forecast points. This may bring Ike out into the same spot Gustav and Ivan blew up. This would be good for the Florida keys, they need every inch of distance from this thing. I live nearly 450 miles from Ike, and they are forecasting 40 mph winds here later today.. I am pleased that Ike is continuing west.. I KNOW that sooner or later Ike will clear the backside of the high pressure that is steering him and begin a NNW track. I have been watching for every little twitch hoping it doesn't make this turn sooner than expected and bring Ike into south Florida. I just heard the the Governor of Louisiana has declared an emergency there.. I feel SO sorry for these folks.. If "I" had to go through what they are, it would absolutely break me financially. I predict that many will refuse to leave and will be in dire jeapordy before this is over.
it's all good. i find myself blessed to have the ability to get up and go if need be. unfortunately there are many others that don't have that and i wish them all well. this isn't our first rodeo!! "keep your chin up" is something ike used to tell tina right before..
Well Mino, things are looking up for you bro. All the models have been pushing south now for three days. Here is the latest 5 day forecast; Here is the 248nm Nexrad radar loop from Key West; Here is the radar loop from the Isle of Youthful Pines
i heard the news mid-day today cnc but ike has slowed down some and i have kinda been watching the high pressure system coming down which if the hp slows as well it could still pull ike up to us . hopefully the hp speeds by. again we can't thank you enough for these reports as i don't get to see much t.v while at work.
