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If Alex Smith, why not Chad Henne?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by jsizzle, Jan 14, 2012.

  1. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    You and I don't agree on much on this forum but I have to agree with you in regards to the Dolphins going after Flynn in free agency. Flynn was not highly rated coming out of college and I fear he is a product of the Packer system and all the talent the team has on offense. I just don't see him as an upgrade over Moore and he certainly isn't worth the type of money he will be looking for in free agency.

    As you obviously already are aware, I don't think Moore is the answer for the long term either. but his salary next season will certainly be far less than what the Dolphins would have to pay Flynn if they decide to sign him. I would rather see the Dolphins keep Moore and let him start the season next year, while they groom a young QB for the future.
     
  2. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    By KM's criteria, same as mine, you wouldn't compare the first 4 seasons of Drew Brees career to Peyton Manning in his 5th through 8th seasons of his career.
     
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  3. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    :lol: I don't get it. I thought he would retract by now.
     
  4. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Basically we do, though I like Moore's future potential more than you do I guess.
    Moore deserves to enter next season as the starter, but I'd like to see us draft someone like Tannehill, Weeden or Foles to groom for the future too and push Moore as the year goes along, rather than throw buckets of money at a QB with 2 career starts.
     
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  5. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    That's more succinct than I could have put it. Thanks for that.
     
  6. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    In that instance, you would have no way of comparing Drew Brees in his first 4 seasons to the performance of other QBs at the time. That means you can't rank all 32 QBs relative to each other in any given season. If you refuse to compare a QB in his 3rd year to a QB in his 7th year with both playing in the same season, the entire concept of relative performance—who's better than who—goes out the door entirely.

    Okay, folks! We're no longer allowed to say whether Matt Stafford is doing better or worse than Philip Rivers, or whether Matt Hasselbeck is doing better or worse than Kevin Kolb. You may now go about your business.
     
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  7. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I'll show you why you're making absolutely no sense in this thread. The premise of this thread is that if you give a QB (Henne) some time to develop, he can become significantly better (Smith). To show why this is impossible with Henne, you compared his first four years, the first and fourth being remarkably bad statistical comparisons by any measure, to Alex Smith's fourth through seventh.

    If the point of the thread is that Smith went from bad to good, what purpose does comparing Henne to the good Smith serve. Hell, Henne's first two years as a full time starter he had an average rating above Brees. In Brees's first three games of his third full year starting, it was STILL worse than Henne. See, the point of comparisons is to compare two like things.

    What you're doing is akin to comparing planes in 1912 and 2012, and declaring 1912 a waste of a year in aeronautics because the planes then were inferior. You sort of expect it.
     
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  8. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Comparing QBs in the same respective seasons of their careers is more accurate if one is looking at long term potential of each.
    Sure, you could have said Manning in 1998 wasn't as good as Marino was at that time, but would that really be a fair comparison? I think when most logical folks take a broad comparative look at 2 or more QB's careers, they look at them in comparable points in their careers.
     
  9. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Of the three you mention, I prefer Tannehill. Even though I heard something about him breaking his foot a few days ago. This will inhibit the Dolphins from working him out in the coming months, I assume. As far as Weeden, I have serious concerns about the fact he will be 29 years old when the season starts next year. I am not nearly as high on him as a future NFL QB as many on this forum seem to be. I really haven't seen Foles play a game, so I can't even make a comment regarding the Dolphins possibly drafting him.
     
  10. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Smith has definitley made a great turn around, no doubt about it...
    in the big show, with all the pressure, he came up big against NO... and has had a pretty good season, for the most part riding the performace of his OL and Defense through the 2011 season...

    But Smith did not have a good TD-INT ratio through his career.. don't know Pads if you are going from memory or looking at his numbers from a stats site...but...

    before 2011 he had 5 years plaing and starting 50 games...

    From 2005-2007 (30 games started) he had 19 TDs to 31 INTs that is a 0.610 TD to INT ratio... and his teams record as a starter was 11-19 (.370 winning %)...

    Henne from 2009-2011 (31 games started) had 31 TDs to 37 INTs, that is a 0.840 TD to INT ratio... and his teams record as a starter was 13-18 (.420 winning %)...

    Not only did Henne have a better TD- INT ratio than Smith but won about one more game...

    and Smith did not become even, on his TD to INT ratio till the 4th game of this season (6th year starter or 7th year in the league)... in the end of 2010 after his 50 games started he still had 51 TDs to 53 INTs...

    Those are the numbers, I don't know if the feelings are the same as they were before these numbers were posted, but Alex Smith, as a 1st round pick has taken 6 years to develop...

    If the SF coaches would have seen just 3 years of Smith Pads, and desided like you that they had seen enough (after 19 TDs-31 INTs), he would be riding a bench somewhere or already retired from the NFL...

    Maybe SF would not be where they are today if that would have happened... Smith is looking real good now... thanks to coaching...
     
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  11. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Okay, now I get it.

    You completely missed the point.

    What I did was to cite Henne's passer rating to show that he is not improving. He is a statistical flatline, and not even a good type of flatline with a passer rating consistently in the high 90s to low 100s. He's in the mid to high 70s. Nothing is happening there to indicate any sort of improvement in him personally.

    As a means of emphasizing not only the existence of this flatline, but the negative aspect of that flatline (again, very low passer rating is not desirable), I showed Smith's passer rating over the same period of time to keep the statistics valid. The only reason these four years of Smith's career were brought up was to illustrate the flatline of Henne's passer rating and to contrast that with the guy who the OP thinks is evidence that Henne can/will improve. Smith's last four years of passer rating have something of a J shape, as opposed to the — shape of Henne's passer rating.

    The point here isn't that the comparison began in 2008. The point here is that Henne is not improving, therefore citing Alex Smith as evidence that Henne can improve is invalid and wrong. The entire premise, that because one guy improved another guy can, is completely wrong. Chad Henne has had ample opportunity to improve. He hasn't. At some point, there's a cutoff, and you stop waiting for improvement and cut your losses. Smith went from IR to the low 80s to the 90s over the same span of time that Henne's career continued on its plateau.

    The only reason Smith's last four years are being mentioned as a contrast point is to highlight to the OP the faultiness of his basic premise. Simply saying "Hey, Henne isn't improving" wouldn't do it, because the OP is asserting that Alex Smith's career is somehow illustrative evidence of some future change in Chad Henne's career. It doesn't work.

    Sorry you got wrapped up in a secondary point. I guess.

    tl;dr Chad Henne is a career backup. Move on.
     
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  12. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Whatever talent Chad Henne had was irrevocably broken thanks to shoddy coaching.
     
  13. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I was more or less just giving those 3 names as examples. There is a lot of disparity among we fans as to which one we'd prefer, and I'm glad I'm not the one making the final call. I would just prefer that route to trading up for RG3, considering what I'm guessing it would cost, or overpaying on a big gamble like Flynn. The cost there is what makes it a gamble IMO. I'd be satisfied with Tannehill for that matter. Resign Henne too. No reason to be short of bodies at QB. Love or hate Henne, he'd still be one of the best #2 QBs in the league if in that role, at the very least.
     
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  14. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't say he was all that talented to begin with. David Lee and Dan Henning didn't exactly do him any favors, but given the players he had around him, he should have performed better. His dislike of the shotgun and his preference for keeping blockers in didn't help much.

    But it's safe to say Henne's gone. I can see him going to a team with an injury-prone starter.
     
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  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And that's the thing, I love Henn's good attributes, toughhenss, arm strength, but he is not ballsy enough and after 3 yrs of it, I just feel like he is not the answer, however as a backup Qb he makes plenty of sense coming back on a below mkt deal.

    I'd love to see him get a chance to work with a Chris Palmer as his problems imo, center around a lack of confidence.

    To me, Moore's edge on Henne is above the neck, Henne reminds me a bit of someone who has been beaten down.
     
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  16. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I am not a fan of Henne's and I just don't see him wanting to remain in Miami as the backup QB. He has stated that he wants another opportunity as a starter in the league and I just don't see him getting that opportunity with the Dolphins. I certainly prefer Moore over Henne and Moore is already signed for next year. The only way I can see Henne with the Dolphins next year is if none of other teams in the NFL show any interest in signing him and he is willing to sign with the Dolphins for a minimum salary.

    I am a big fan of RG3 and I think he would be worth the draft picks the Rams would demand as a trade up to select him. I just don't think the Dolphins will be willing to make this trade. I wasn't high on Tannehill until I watched a game he played recently. I also like the fact that he is extremely intelligent and very athletic, shown by the fact he was a receiver during his first two years in college. I think it will take him a few years to develop in the NFL and I have no idea if he will ever be the franchise QB we all desire. I just see him as the best prospect after Luck and RG3, and with no Barkley or Jones in this years draft class.
     
  17. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I didn't miss your point. It was a bad point.

    I like dissecting posts. Here's where you disregard me already showing where you created a fake trend to reassert this invalid point. Here's where you also ignore the point I made that asserting Passer rating as the only measure of improvement is a fallacy. In conjunction with those Brees facts, I don't see how you can assert that he can't improve or won't improve.

    Wow. Do you still not understand why you can't compare these two data points? It took Smith three years to show the improvement you're talking about. Maybe you just want to ignore the fact that Henne was consistently better than Smith in his first three years compared to Smith's first three, and it's easier to blatantly ignore facts to push your agenda. Smith's ratings were 40.8, 74.8, and 57.2.

    No. That's not the point. It wasn't until Smith's fifth year in the league did he even get above a 75 rating. The OP only suggested Henne might need time.

    I question if you're trolling. What were Alex Smith's numbers in his first three years? You can admit worse than Henne's right?

    Completely subjective. Smith didn't hit even an 80 rating until his fifth year. There wasn't an indication after any of his previous years that he would ever be where he is now.

    And here is where you double down on the belief that regardless of experience, expectations are fixed.

    Not even close. The point is that because Smith is doing it, so can Henne. Same thing with the Brees Henne comparisons that were here for a time. It's a fallacy sure, argumentum ad antiquitatem, but you've doing nothing close to rebutting it. Your conclusion may very well be right, but your premises and supporting data are terribly, terribly wrong.

    tl;dr you've committed more fallacies than anyone yet are still claiming the high ground.
     
  18. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Woa! We are talking about Shaun Hill now? He's terrible! I guess he's serviceable but thats about it. Rather have Matt Moore.
    As for the Alex Smith resurgence vrs Chad Henne doing the same thing.... I don't think so. Alex Smith had a skillset that warranted him being the number one overall pick. He just never was able to put it together and in my opinion still hasn't. He may very well get to the super bowl this year but it is in no way due to the fact that he's turned the corner as a QB. San Fran has grown as a team and props to Harbaugh for getting it going there. I think Alex Smith can be as good as well.... Jim Harbaugh was. Not a franchise QB but certainly one that can guide a super bowl team.
    Henne is just not a starting QB. There is no comparison between the two.
     
  19. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Sizzle, you should know by now that no matter what Henne does, it won't be good enough for most on these forums... He's lost his opportunity here....enough said...
     
  20. Clipse

    Clipse mediocrity sucks

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    Because Chad Henne does not, and has never had the talent that Alex Smith had, hence why he was a 1st overall pick?
     
  21. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    I thought the Henne threads were done with...
     
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  22. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    Because were the Dolphins.
     
  23. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    No thanks to both of them. Niether one are franchise caliber Qb's
     
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  24. cdz12250

    cdz12250 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Maybe because Marino was instant Marino.
     
  25. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    I had lost faith in Henne coming in to this season, but I still stand by what I saw this year on the field and that was Henne was the BEST player on offense this year.

    All the players raved about his leadership skills he developed in the off season. Fans took 3 years of frustration and did what frustrated fans always do...blame the QB as the problem after an 0-3 start. But gave Moore a pass when going 0-4 after taking over...WTF?

    Although non-Dolphin experts all saw the improvement of Henne and identified Marshall's drops as the biggest problem.

    REALITY with Miami's problems early in the season had more to do with:

    An OL that had 3 starters at new positions and a LT that was clearly not recovered early in the season.
    A new system that Henne seemed to have down but the much of the other players didn't due to the lockout.
    Repeated having plays called for the alpha WR in the end zone that dropped TD pass after TD pass.
     
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  26. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

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  27. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Henne wasn't even the 5th best player on offense....
     
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  28. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    LOL

    Then why was it so easy for Matt Moore?
     
  29. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    By the end of the year no, but the games he played in he was. At least that was my impression at the time of watching them. The team as a whole improved vastly after the first 6-7 games.
     
  30. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    So did I. But the bandwagon must have some gas left. I'd expect in 2012, if Henne manages to somehow get a starting job (likely through someone else's injury), we're going to have threads comparing Henne and Moore.

    I don't get the emotional investment in him. He's not very good, we've found someone better, see ya later.

    "I hate Chad Henne because he's not Dan Marino!" — No one, ever.
     
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  31. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Marshall, Bush, Long, Pounce....
     
  32. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    [​IMG]
     
  33. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Didn't play better than henne until after he was hurt.
     
  34. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    in your opinion not mine


    Henne improved from last season but needed to be better still.
     
  35. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    He did, Henne was actually effective, from the 20 to 20 yd line.
     
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  36. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Its not the majority of fans and if the front office is really making personnel decisions based upon message board fans then we have bigger issues than the Qb position. Most fans understand it takes time and really when you look at it we have given a lot of terrible Qbs a lot of time to prove themselves. I think the attitude that we can't get a Qb here because of the fans is frankly one of the silliest things I've ever heard.
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Talk about hyperbole.

    It is magical that Henning has had success with every quarterback he has coached, except for Chad Henne. Yet somehow it is Hennings fault that Chad Henne couldn't be a good quarterback. Rodney Freaking Peete had a game where he scored 3 touchdowns under Henning, however it is Hennings fault that Henne has never done it.

    I am not defending Dan Henning. That is poor reading skills. I am stating that Henne is the reason that Henne failed. It isn't some magical conspiracy between Henning and Sparano that ruined Henne.
     
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  38. pitted151

    pitted151 New Member

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    The difference between Henne and Smith are that Smith was a first overall pick that had a skill set core scouts saw and rated high. Smith had seven different OC's, it took Harbaugh to come in and refine those skills into a starting qb. Harbaugh has a knack for developing QB's i.e Andrew Luck. Henne on the other hand was a low second round pick, and many scouts had him rated as a low second to high third round. Reason being that Henne has weak core skill set, he had loads of talent around him at Michigan (Hart, Manningham, Long), but never won BIG. App State anyone?
     
  39. Lab3003

    Lab3003 Golden era

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    I don't know how relevant this is, but as a general rule, I wouldn't draft a MICH QB that never beat OSU, while being surrounded by NFL draft caliber offensive weapons.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
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  40. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I agree about what you saw in Henne. It was a crying shame for him that he got knocked out so early in the season because any objective observer could readily see that the Daboll offense suited him very well and he looked a lot better. The pass blocking was really bad early in the season.
    Against NE, Henne was sacked 5 times, and sustained 11 hits and 12 pressures. Even so, his lone INT came on the last play of the game, when we were down 14 and he just threw it into coverage anyway. Were he concerned about passer rating he could have thrown it away instead. 11 QB hits is a terribly high number for one game when the season total was 38. 25%+ of the QB hits came in that one game.
    His lone INT against Houston was on a play where Mario Williams hit his arm as he was throwing the ball. So, that INT was more on Colombo than anyone else.
    The INT against Cleveland came on the last offensive play for Miami. At midfield on 4th and 10, :21 seconds left, he forced the pass to a well covered Marshall and threw it high. That one was on him, though on 4th down, you may as well try even if the receivers are covered.
    The INT against SD came on a play early in the game when Donald Butler drilled him in the chest just as he was releasing the ball, and the pass was overthrown. He probably shouldn't have thrown it and took the sack. Butler was on him in about 1 and a half seconds coming up the middle.
    My point is, I've seen it written that Henne didn't improve because his passer rating was still only 79, not much better than the 75 ratings of the previous two seasons. Also, his TD/INT ratio was 1:1. Looking at the 4 picks though, his ratio could have been easily 2:1 at least with some better blocking. That's not even looking at the dropped potential TD passes he had by BM. Maybe BM does better with the softer passes that Moore and Orton throw, rather than Henne's high velocity throws. Granted arm strength is nice, but timing and touch are probably more important.
    If his arm doesn't get his by Mario Williams, and if he doesn't attempt a meaningless desperation pass on the last play of the NE game, his QB rating would have been 86.5. So those people who look at only stats wouldn't be able to denigrate his performance quite so readily. Those who actually look at him in complete context could already see the 2011 Henne was noticeably improved from previous seasons.
     
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