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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 25, 2018.
... it will be because of....
(AKA - what are our biggest/most obvious issues?)
Tackling issues in the secondary and/or our inability to run the ball.
Those chunk runs or YAC are frustrating when the D has managed to press the opponent to a 3rd down and then someone manages 1st down because a tackle gets missed.
And when we can't establish the run it then begins to threaten the pass with teams not needing to honour the run as much.
Regardless of the actual reason when we lose, I already dread all the "we suck" comments that are inevitable. As if we're supposed to go undefeated.
Anyway, I think the lack of a consistant run game will play a huge part in us losing.
I love the fact that our team is finally able to make the big plays on both sides of the ball, especially when they need to in clutch time. But it can't keep going forever.
Our offense continues to run among the very fewest plays in the league, game after game. Far too often, our drives are all or nothing, with either the big play for the TD, a punt or a turnover. And then on defense, we continue to get gashed between the 20s, only to create a turnover or make a 4th down stop when the opponent gets in close.
Its all exciting and fun, and to this point it seems to be Gase's signature, but it can't be sustainable, and its going to come back to bite us if we can't fix it. The offense needs to be able to make sustained drives, gain more first downs, and keep possession of the ball for longer stretches. On defense, they need to do a better job of forcing the opposition to punt and getting off the field in third and long, rather than trying for the big play and letting the other team convert.
Yeah I really don't care to hear all the negative We suck, Tannehill sucks comments. Tiresome. We are going to loose sometime, maybe Sunday, Tannehill will have a bad game sometime. It will happen so get over it, Every team looses games, except the 72 fins, every QB has a bad game. I'm not even too concerned over the Defense. I'm more concerned that the offense hasn't completely clicked yet, still too many times when they just haven't looked in sync. I know that takes more time so I am hopeful it gets better.
Coaching - Letting a good team get a lead.
As far as players, Our OL failed in the run game (wonder if that has something to do with Sitton injury)
Our LBs are almost always out of place. LB Corps is kind of a circus right now(Solid Secondary play making up for it)
We have a weak Run Defense (namely because of aforementioned LBers) but also because our DL is weak against it.
This team needs to be able to run the ball to have extended success. I thought Kenyan Drake would go for 1000 yards this year. Maybe not now.
Nailed it for me.
3-0 is great. The last 3 weeks have been fun...but it feels 'flukey'. I see a team positioned to be successful and start making an argument as contender. I am not seeing a team performing at a level where a deep playoff run as a contender seems plausible.
If they start making more sustained drives, improve the running game a bit, and start getting more stops between the 40's, I'll change my tune. The big play presence on BOTH sides is a massive improvement when looking at the last couple years...but still some improvement that needs to happen on BOTH sides of the ball.
Either way, I'll keep hoping for more of these fun flukey wins ...
I don't think we lose until our defense has a bad game. I'm still comfortable with our run defense despite what Lynch just did....nobody in the league runs with his power and we shut down Oakland's other runners. I think having Jones is vital though so we can put Minkah at slot, but otherwise our pass and goal line D is fantastic. As long as we continue to stop the run and force teams to go vertical on us, it's going to be a low-scoring game where our offense has a chance to win.
The other side of the coin though is if the offense evolves enough to where we can overcome a bad day on D. That somewhat happened last week when RT came out firing in the middle of the game, so we may already be closer than we think and just not showing much on offense....I'm not sure. This past week was strange since we had no run game; I don't expect that to be typical.
With all that said, our best chance at a loss is having someone get the early lead on us and forcing RT to attack the field....we haven't seen that scenario yet for four quarters so we really don't know what to expect there. You also have to realize that RT is 10-1 in the last 11 and history says he responds pretty well when he has to.
Losing the turnover differential.
Not only does turnover differential have a high correlation to win% (0.6279 through NFL history, which is right there with passer rating), we've won the TO battle in all 3 of our wins, and I think people remember well how our defense has set up the offense to score a bunch of times. This offense has been good enough so far, but it's not like the offense put the team on its shoulders. So I'm betting our first loss comes when that turnover differential is negative.
Anyone else see a similarity between this season and the 2016 season?
The difference being we won games this season that we should’ve won in 2016 but didn’t?
This season is a direct continuation of 2016. IMO, you just have to look at it like 2017 didn't happen. So much chaos last year. The first five games of 2016 are forgettable as well, given the chaos of the OL and Gase figuring the roster out.
And they've picked up right where they left off, especially where RT17 went down. Despite the large changeover in the roster, and even with some of the coaches, this team is very much like that one so far, just picking up where they stopped, and continuing to improve.
I beg to differ, This team is hands down better than the one in 2016. I agree that you toss the first 5 games and go from that point forward but this team has better speed across the board and a stronger makeup than that one by far. I also feel that Tannehill and the offense havent even knocked the rust off yet. Wait till they get their groove.
I think that they're better than they've shown as well, and capable of good things. I want to see it!
But at the same time, the inability to score in the first quarter, and the over reliance on the big play on both sides of the ball is very frustrating. But they've also been the victim of circumstances in the small sample size so far. They were starting to roll when the storms hit in Week 1, and then last week they were of course the target of terrible (even unfair/biased) officiating.
If we lose, it will because of...
...just one of those days. Nothing to put a finger on. Just a day when things don't bounce our way. If and when it happens, I always like to see how we respond the following week. I believe our team this year will respond very well. They work hard and believe in themselves. As long as the injury bug doesn't totally deplete our team, I believe their confidence and perseverance will carry them through to the playoffs.
Honestly I don't see the similarities. That 2016 squad was last in run D and bottom 10 in pass defense. 2016 had to be about the offense for us to have a chance, while this year is all about that D. However, we've also got a lot more potent on offense in so many ways (line upgrade, stud RB's, best WR group in the league, etc.). Tannehill has a lot of luxuries this year and he doesn't have to win the game for us...he just needs to be smart with the ball and avoid turnovers.
In other words, if RT doesn't lose it for us with bad decisions, we should have a pretty good chance at beating anyone. You couldn't say that about our 2016 team.
The horrible freak show that is now NFL officiating.
I think this lack of consistent run game analysis that I've seen recently is not accurate. I think, thus far, the run game is fine. The run is always shut down by good defenses that make it their main point of emphasis, as the Raiders did this weekend. The offense needs to stay balanced and Gase needs to recognize early what attack strategy will work and not after they are down by 2-3 scores.