Each year, I make lists of who my draft targets are, and free agents I like. Out of curiosity, I decided to go back and revisit those old lists to see who I wanted to draft and sign as free agents from 2008 on. I wanted to see how my roster would compare with the current Dolphins roster. I strictly worked off who I wanted AT THE TIME, not now that we know how their career has gone. There is no hindsight in these decisions, which is why there are a few misses in there too. THE RULES: I went back to each draft and free agency list and compared it to where we picked in each round. If the player I wanted was still available when we picked, I would have taken him. I was surprised that there were times I couldn't get a player I really liked (Gronkowski was the best example of this.. the draft just wouldn't fall my way for me to get him). Inherent Flaws: Too many to count. lol. I mean, this is just for fun. I was not strict about salary cap, but assume I'd be losing some of these guys every year. I was more interested in seeing what sort of talent we could have accumulated, knowing full well we would have had to let some go. But I wanted to see if I was better able to FILL the cupboards with talent to where we had to let the surplus go, than Ireland's efforts which still has us with lots of holes after four offseasons. Still, here are some inherent flaws in this exercise: - I didn't always have complete lists for 6th, 7th round picks etc. so I assume those low level guys didn;t make my roster. Actually, this handicaps me, because there's a chance I may have actually hit on a few of those,but I am giving myself zero credit for anyone I did not specifically target pre-draft or pre-free-agency. - Obviously, each draft and FA I kept looking for the same positions Ireland was not filling... so my lists in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 re all full of WRs, for example. In real life, once I had found our starting WRs, I would not have continued to prioritize them every damned offseason... so in one sense, I overstocked on what the phins have been weakest in because EVERY year's list targeted those positions over-and-over. Anyways, for fun, see how the drafts would have looked and then look at the final roster we would have had to choose from (some would have been let go due to salary cap)... Head Coach - Mike Tomlin (if he had accepted my job offer) Draft 2008 1) Jake Long LT 2) (32) Brandon Flowers CB 2) Chad Henne QB 3) Tom Zbikowski S 4) Frank Okam DT 6) Andre Woodson QB 6) Davone Bess WR (Say what you want but he was eighth all time in NCAA career receptions. 8th ALL TIME) 6) Had no one on my list... so roster filler OL or LB 7) Had no one on my list, so roster filler OL or LB UDFAs - Can't find my old 2008 UDFA 'Wishlist' 2009 1) Hakeem Nicks WR 2) Paul Kruger DE or David Veikune DE 2) Glen Coffee RB 3) Ladarius Webb CB 4) Lawrence Sidbury DE 5) Tom Brandstater QB 5) Captain Munnerlyn CB 6) Rashad Jennings RB or Coye Francies CB 7) Julian Edelman WR UDFA Targets - Dannell Ellerbe LB, Quan Cosby WR 2010 1) Earl Thomas S (at 12th overall. No trade down.) 2) Sergio Kindle DE/LB (I still have a 2nd because I don't make the Brandon Marshall trade) 3) Emmanuel Sanders WR 4) Ed Wang OT (at 126th, I wouldn't have traded up for Edds. Meaning I also hang onto my 6th round pick) 5) Riley Cooper WR 5) Jonathan Dwyer RB 6) George Selvie DE 7) Chris McCoy LB 7) Danario Alexander WR UDFAs - Seyi Ajirotutu WR, LeGarrette Blount RB 2011 (My weakest draft) 1) Used to sign Demeco Ryans RFA 2) (Didn't use it on Brandon Marshall) 3) Given up to sign Demeco Ryans RFA 4 Ricki Stanzi QB 5 Frank Kearse DT 7 Roster Fill. LB, OL, K/P 7 Roster Fill 7 Camp Fodder 7 Camp Fodder UDFA - No targets. Camp fodder. 2012 1) Ryan Tannehill QB 2) Stephen Hill WR 3) Mohamed Sanu WR (I only have one 3rd round pick, since I didn't have Brandon Marshall to trade to Chicago for theirs, so only have my own 3rd.) 4) Lamar Miller RB 5) DL or OL help. (No one I liked here) 6) Roster fill - FB, TE, LB, OL, CB 7) Roster fill - FB, TE, LB, OL, CB 7) Roster fill - FB, TE, LB, OL, CB Free Agency 2008 -(Would not have signed Ernest Wilford... or Randy Starks, which is a miss by me) - Would have considered Devery Henderson, but he was quoted as saying he preferred staying in New Orleans and I wouldn't have overpaid him to leave. - QB Chad Pennington - DT Jason Ferguson 2009 Let Vernon Carey go. Try to land Jon Runyan, he probably refuses. Amani Toomer WR Shaun McDonald WR Brian Dawkins FS Demarcus Faggins CB Matt Birk Center Try to sign Julius Peppers and Terrell Suggs but they refuse offers. Re-sign Channing Crowder (not because I think he is great, but because I do not want to create a hole, or overpay a Free Agent.. I focus on building through the draft and finding value in Free Agency unless there are no such players available in upcoming drafts and I have dire need) Other Notable Free Agent: Cam Wake 2010 Let Chad Pennington, Jason Ferguson go. DeMeco Ryan's MLB restricted. (1st and 3rd round pick?) Kevin Walter WR Aaron Kampman DE or OLB Adalius Thomas Bo Scaife TE or resign David Martin TE Dusty Dvoracek DT 2011 Don't sign Reggie Bush Don't re-sign Ronnie Brown Ahmad Bradshaw RB Chad Greenway LB Logan Mankins OG or Marshall Yanda OG (4m) Josh Wilson CB Rocky Bernard DT (rotational) Brodrick Bunkley DT (run downs) 2012 Bobbie Williams OG Here is the Depth Chart we would have now... I have included a couple of my 2013 Free Agency targets, but not draft guys... QB Ryan Tannehill, Chad Henne, Tom Brandstater, Ricki Stanzi LT Jake Long LG Bobbie Williams, Chump C Matt Birk, Chump RG Marshall Yanda, Chump RT Ed Wang (Targeting Sebastien Vollmer this offseason - 2013) RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Lamar Miller, Glen Coffee, Rashad Jennings, Jonathan Dwyer, LeGarrette Blount FB Decent FREE AGENT, Chump TE Bo Scaife, Chump WR Hakeem Nicks, Danario Alexander, Amani Toomer WR Greg Jennings (would get him for 2013) , Stephen Hill, Kevin Walter WR Davone Bess, Julian Edelman, Shaun McDonald, Mohamed Sanu, Quan Cosby WR Emmanuel Sanders, Seyi Ajirotutu, Riley Cooper --------- CB Brandon Flowers CB Ladarius Webb CB Josh Wilson CB Demarcus Faggins CB Captain Munnerlyn DE Paul Kruger, Michael Johnson, Lawrence Sidbury NT/DT Paul Soliai, Frank Okam, Frank Kearse, Dusty Dvoracek DT Rocky Bernard, Brodrick Bunkley, Chris McCoy DE Cam Wake, Aaron Kampman SOLB Sergio Kindle, George Selvie MLB DeMeco Ryans, Dannell Ellerbe, WOLB Chad Greenway FS Earl Thomas, Chump SS Brian Dawkins / Tom Zbikowski That's the talent I would have amassed, but due to salary cap, I would likely have had to let several guys, like Brian Dawkins, go, along with one of the O-linemen. Building an O-line through free Agency is not sustainable, long term under the cap. Still, if my biggest problem was I couldn't afford to KEEP the amount of talent I was bringing in the door, that's amazing. That's the opposite of our real roster today. I think, overall, I'd be happier with my roster where the cup of talent overfloweth. One glaring hole I had a ***** of a time addressing was Tight End. No matter how I tried to finagle it, I couldn't logically position myself to get a crack at Gronkowski in that draft and I wanted him BADLY. But where he sat, value wise, and the options I would have had, it just didn't make sense to try for him. Little did I know, that sent me into a tight end desert. The only two other options later were a declining Dallas Clark (no thanks) or paying a 1st and a 3rd for Owen Daniels on top of a huge contract. No thanks... I chose DeMeco Ryans as the centerpiece of my defense (bye Channing) instead. All in all it was a fun exercise, but it gave me more empathy for the job Jeff Ireland has done. You really can't always get the guys you think you can get. It is like swimming in handcuffs, a little bit.. or playing whack-a-mole. For every hole you fill or free agent you sign, you are giving something up, or sprining a new leak somewhere else. Overall, I would grade my job as an A... because I like my own players. lol. I think the offense would be far more explosive than ours, with a strong ground game. The defense would be dominant, imo. Anyone else up for the challenge? You just have to go through every draft and free agency period, rememebering what picks/money/expiring free agent contracts you have. See what roster YOU end up with in the end!
If I Had Been GM... Since 2008... Hey mods, can you change the "I" in the title to "You"? I'd like to know what other people's rosters would be if they did this.
Other than the 2011 draft I think it would have been an improvement on what they did.Ross should consider you if Ireland is canned after next season.
I think in 2011 I didn't have time to spend on the draft. lol. Lack of preparation = poor results. I tried to make up for it in free agency, from the look of it, that year.
Fun thread. I know my 08 draft would of crushed the one we had just based on the first three rounds alone. Matt Ryan, Jordie Nelson (who was a total steal in round 2, I thought he was better than Crabtree and still do), and Carl Nicks. Hakeem Nicks, JPP, and Gronk are three other guys that jump out in my mind right off the bat when I look back too. Although, If I were GM, like you, I wouldn't have traded down and got a pick high enough to get Gronk in round 2.
This is something I generally do to myself, re-grade how I came out on different prospects. One problem with it is there's a lack of cohesion. Who we would have taken is somewhat based on the Dolphins' needs. For instance, if I had my way in 2011 most people know I probably would have taken Ryan Mallett at #15 overall. But then, if I'd had my way in 2005 the Dolphins wouldn't have needed Ryan Mallett because they'd have already had Aaron Rodgers at #2 overall. But it's not just the quarterback position. It works at every level. Based on the needs at the time I'd have come out of 2011 with WR Leonard Hankerson, RB Kendall Hunter, DE Pernell McPhee, TE Virgil Green, LB Mark Herzlich, S David Sims and OC Kris O'Dowd. But that's based on a marriage of the needs at the time and the grades I had on them. But if you look at 2010 I clearly wanted to come out of that draft with Dennis Pitta or Jimmy Graham...and if I did that, does that mean no Virgil Green in 2011? In 2010, did we trade for Brandon Marshall or not? If not, I'd have steered toward Dez Bryant. Otherwise my haul would've included DE/OLB Brandon Graham, TE Jimmy Graham, S Kam Chancellor, DT Cam Thomas, LB Dekoda Watson, DE C.J. Wilson and OC John Estes. And when it comes to 2012 then if I've already got Ryan Mallett (whom we'll assume looked like a rookie in 2011) then obviously I'm not taking Tannehill in 2012 even though I had Tannehill rated higher than Mallett. But if Mallett had looked as poor as most people assume he would have, then my choice would have been to keep rolling the dice at the second tier until I'm sure I've got the guy I want. In 2011 my 2nd tier at that position consisted of Colin Kaepernick and T.J. Yates. This year my 2nd tier at the position consisted entirely and solely of Russell Wilson. So does that mean I'm grabbing DE Quinton Coples, WR Stephen Hill, QB Russell Wilson, OL Brandon Brooks, LB James-Michael Johnson, RB Vick Ballard, OT Tom Compton, CB Larry Parker and TE Chase Ford? It's all kind of a mess though because of the need thing. That's part of why I tend toward lists of players that I would steer for in the draft, rather than a who I'd have technically picked approach. For instance in 2010 the list of corners I'd have steered toward consisted of Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, Brandon Ghee, Javier Arenas, Amari Spievey, Kevin Thomas and Patrick Stoudamire. That gives you a nice range, options for every round. This year that was more Dwight Bentley, Josh Norman, Alfonzo Dennard and Larry Parker. The list of wide receivers i'd have steered toward consisted of Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn, Jacoby Ford, Dexter McCluster, Taylor Price, Blair White, Andre Roberts and Chris McGaha. At linebacker (non-rush), I was steering toward Sean Weatherspoon, Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman, Brandon Spikes and Dekoda Watson. This year that was more Luke Kuechly, James-Michael Johnson and Tank Carder.
If I Had Been GM... Since 2008... Exactly. This was the most glaring issue. Every year my wish list was full of the same position because Ireland had not resolved it, but if I had been GM then after each draft our needs would have changed. So, I would not have ended up with a massive logjam at WR like I did. The roster would be more balanced. If anything, though, the fact that it still has less holes than Ireland's roster today is kind of alarming. I love seeing who you wanted each year, CK. I liked Kam Chancellor too. (And Major Wright, whom you didn't mention). Chris McGaha definitely deceived a little bit and I agree he was a booby trap pick. I love your idea of listing players you had OFF your board entirely. I've never done that. I think I may start. You had a lot of names of guys you wanted who weren't on my radar at all. Interesting.
IMO, things get murky after the 2nd round with knowing the future. But for the first 2 rounds I had my favorites each year. Truthfully here they are: 2008 1. Jake Long 2(32). Malcolm Kelly 2(57). Chad Henne 2009 1. Hakeem Nicks 2(44). Sean Smith 2(61). Rashad Johnson 2010 1(12). Earl Thomas (Although like what CK said if they committed to Rashad Johnson 2009 this pick would probably be Derrick Morgan) 2. I would have made Brandon Marshall trade. 2011 1. Ryan Mallet 2. I would have made Brandon Marshall trade and would have stayed the hell away from Daniel Thomas. 2012 1. Luke Kuechly 2. Vinny Curry
I didn't mention Major Wright but he was very much on the list at that position. I had Eric Berry (R1), Earl Thomas (R1), Morgan Burnett (R3), Major Wright (R3), Kam Chancellor (R5), Larry Asante (R5), Kurt Coleman (R7) and Van Eskridge (UDFA) on the list. Another one of those where you've got guys for just about every area of the draft. Obviously you're not looking at a Van Eskridge until the last round, and obviously you're not waiting until the 2nd round if you want Eric Berry and Earl Thomas. Examples of guys DRAFTED at that position that were left OFF the list include: Nate Allen (R2) T.J. Ward (R2) Taylor Mays (R2) Chad Jones (R3) Myron Lewis (R3) Darrell Stuckey (R4) Reshad Jones (R5) Robert Johnson (R5) Kendrick Lewis (R5) Sherrick McManis (R5) Jordan Pugh (R6) Shann Schillinger (R6) Myron Rolle (R6) Cody Grimm (R7) Stevie Brown (R7) Of course that benefits from a little bit of hindsight. NFL Draft Scout had the following safeties draftable that year, but they didn't make my list, nor did they get drafted: Donovan Warren, Quentin Scott, Darian Stewart, Jeremy Miles, Kyle McCarthy, Marty Bowman, Matt O'Hanlon, Chris Maragos, Jon Amaya, Anthony Levine and Bryan Evans It's not an orthodox way of thinking about this stuff, but to me the important parts are figuring out A) Where guys are going to be taken (which requires both grading and investigation), and B) Do you want him or not?
2 big things that would have happened in 2008 if I were GM of the Miami Dolphins - Tony Sparano would not have been hired as coach. I wouldn't be looking for a puppet, I'd be looking for a good coach. Especially considering I'm just a nitwit fan who would need the best possible coach available. Sparano's North Country Pennsyltucky muckmouthed tough guy affect wouldn't have flown with me. Going with my "hire the most handsome guy" approach, John Harbaugh would have been the hire. (no hindsight here ) Tomlin a close second. Then Matt Ryan would be the QB. I'd make that first pick. Then I'd immediately resign and leave the rest of the draft in the charge of someone who knew what the hell they were doing.
If I Had Been GM... Since 2008... Vaguely recall Eskridge and thinking he'd be worth a look as a UDFA. Burnett, Asante and Coleman must not have been guys I liked, because I couldn't write a sentence about any of them. Like you I was not a Mays fan, nor was I a Rashad Jones fan once I read a bit about his potential issues with being he mental aspect of the game though I remember a few "Whoa" moments of loving his physicality in his film. I admit, I had Nate Allen on my list, after Kam and Major, though, as I felt Nate was not a good value where he was expected to go. Funny that I cared so much about safeties that year. Must have been the year after Gibril played poorly for us. Interesting to look back now and see Amaya. You know, I'd love to see someone rank the college players coming out as NFL Special Teams coverage prospects. You never see Special Teams Maven rankings for college prospects. Amaya turned out to be a decent one. I agree that one of the most underrated, but biggest, things for a successful draft if having a sense of where guys are going to be take. It's not just about knowing where you value a guy, it's maximizing your returns for your picks. I don't need to explain the reasons to you, as you're an investment guy, so the idea of not overspending to acquire an asset you could acquire more cheaply, and opportunity cost of the incremental difference you could have saved by picking him with a later pick and reallocating that higher pick to someone else is all in you at a cellular level by now, I mean, when you take a guy a round earlier than anyone else would have picked him, you have wasted 32 spots worth of draft pick. I think over drafting is what mkes many teams perennially mediocre. By the same token, you have to go get a guy is you have a conviction about him.
I remember being very high on Malcolm Kelly myself. Dude sure was fools gold. Devin Thomas sucked also, what a dud WR draft that was.
I think part of the problem with an approach like this is coaching. I have been critical of all the Dolphins coaches since JJ for failing to develop the talent that we drafted. My gut feeling is that even if we had drafted the guys that we had wanted they would have been burned on the altar of sock puppet coaching.
Which is why my first and only move (besides Matt Ryan) would have been to hire a different head coach. It's a hard pill to swallow that the Miami Dolphins ended up with Sparano when you look at the list of guys they could have hired. Parcells and his ego needed a puppet coach and that coupled with the failed and outdated plan for building an NFL team set this franchise back years. I remember when I thought Miami was lucky for luring Parcells away from Atlanta...
Honestly, I think Parcells and Ireland restocked the team with respectable talent. Two things went wrong: 1) Pennington fell into our laps early, when we should have still had a rebuilding mentality. That ruined us for the following offseason, feeling we were further ahead than we really were and we started to think about silly things like Pat White etc.. We left 'rebuilding' mode too soon. 2) When Ross wanted to fire Sparano, he should have canned Ireland AND Sparano that year. We might even have gotten HArbaugh. Who knows. But that lame duck year, and not Ireland still making Parcellian picks with a Packers coaching staff has not made for clean transitions.
I'm of the belief that not firing Ireland when Sparano was fired will go down in history as a huge mistake for this franchise. I'm talking top 10 in terms of impact. We'll see though. He has his opportunity to prove me wrong this offseason.
