Even if we don't make the playoffs let's win out the rest of the way.

 

Well, Oakland was who we thought they were...

 

nice post Friend Da 'Fins
very strong point of view

 

Well Da'Fins, keep in mind if we beat the Jets, and they lose to the pats this week, we are one game behind them.

And they travel to Chicago after playing us.

 

Yeah, a lot of those teams that are ahead of us play each other and some upper tier teams.

 

For some odd reason I was reminded of this scene.

[video=youtube;JGpajGj07BU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGpajGj07BU&feature=related[/video]

 

I agree that we are a mid-level team, but I place most of the blame on the game plans and play calling. I see many running plays where the OL has their man engaged and the free defender makes the tackle. This is re-enforced by PFF's ratings of our OL. According to them our OL has done a good job individually. This points to the predictability of our play calling. The defenders know what we are going to do far too often. (This is just one example, but IMO our play calling is too predictable in most areas).

As for the personnel, I do agree it hasn't been as good as it could have been, but they have hit on enough that I don't consider it the biggest problem.

 

fact is, you have to get "lucky" with some guys. the bucs are doing so with williams and blount on offense. some characters issues aside. but you cant stack your team with 1st rounders at every position of need. tons of teams have "no namers" that contribute as they mold into the system. in that regard its up to the coaches to make chicken salad, imo. and that means taking chances on guys and living with some mistakes

 

yeah i agree. i think pff's analysis of offensive linemen leaves alot to be desired. incognito and berger were getting manhandled at times yesterday and this wasnt new to anyone watching them over the course of the year. berger at least has played well in pass situations. i know its early but i'm on the draft demarcus love bandwagon as of now with our first. d love next to long for 2011 would be a crushing run blocking unit and would allow us to inflict our will on opposing defenses rather than the smoke and mirrors we are forced to use this year to try to scheme our ways to victories.

and just to add i do believe our personel are effecting our play calling. our philosophy is to basically have a dominating run game and play action off of it. well, when you cant run for 4 yds a carry that makes the first part of that philosophy start with a weight around its ankles. Add to the mix a young QB who still has trouble with zone coverage and now you're running a race with two weights strapped to your body. honestly every coordinator is going to be hard pressed to overcome that so you end up trying to trick the defenses rather than dominate them. not a winning formula but you really have no choice

the crux of this year's problems on offense IMO fall on the shoulders of Ireland for thinking that Incognito and Berger would fit into our scheme. John Jerry is a rookie who seems to be improving so I'll leave him out of the equation. You can probably get away with having one of them if you replace the other with a run blocking stud but to have those two side by side is an invitation for mediocrity

Its ok by me however. I dont expect perfection from GMs. Ireland has shown an excellent ability to cut his losses quickly and fix the problems the following year. We were concentrating on defense in 2010. 2011 we need to concentrate on getting our offensive personel bacck to where they need to be

 

With that said this will make perfect sense to you. I am a football bookworm of sorts and the following is a passage from one of my books.

Two Deep Zone

Whenever it chooses, an offense can protect its quarterback! Recognizing this offensive intention, the defensive coordinator's most prudent response is to implement saturation zone coverage, for eight offensive blockers can stymie the first level's pass rush, and without pressure most quarterbacks will dissect any man-to-man pass defense.


..........and that's when the offense must have the ability to run. Without the ability to run, the quarterback must then dissect the two deep. One way or another, the burden is on the offense to get the job done.

Chad Henne hasn't done it versus two deep.

Our running game hasn't done it versus two deep.

THAT is our problem.

When those two things change, Dan Henning is a freaking genius!

 

Not so. PFF has McQuisten as our best G at 0.5, Incognito is negative -0.5, and Jerry is negative -7.4. That's been our problem.

 

DF,

Well done, and a VG read. I disagree a bit. All things considered, youth, injuries, etc, I would rate our talent as above average. We're not where we want to be but, IMO closer than the rest of the middle of the pack.

 

good post.

 

We need playmakers in the worst way.

EDIT: IMO, the reason the pats always have so many draft picks is because they believe in getting something for their players at the right time. They don't get too emotionally involved in players. They are just pieces of a puzzle. If we had the same philosophy, we would have received a couple of picks for Ronnie Brown this season before the trade deadline ended. Green Bay was desperate for a RB. We could have worked something out. I love Ronnie, but would have taken a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him. Maybe even a 4th.

 

I don't have a PFF subscription, but before the Oakland game, per CK, PFF had us ranked as the #4 run blocking unit. I don't think we've had great guard play, but I think that the bigger problem by far is that we haven't stuck with the run. RB and RW are two players who have, throughout their careers, improved with more carries. We also have a QB who was entering his first full year as a starter. It would have been wiser to stick with the running game longer regardless of what it was producing and protecting our QB more. That's something the Jets handled better than we did. Early in the season they were running a ton. That gave Sanchez a crutch. Sure, Sanchez had some luck with dropped INTs, but the point is that it made his job easier and allowed him to get some big plays for them.

I also felt the kinds of runs and the timing of our runs were too predictable. I know that far too often I sit on my couch and predict the play based on the formation and personnel. I'm sure that's the case with many fans here. How much easier must it be for a DC or a defensive player who gets a week to watch coaches tape and has a printout of what our tendencies are out of each formation?

 

I don't care what PFF sys... Our OL has been horrible this year with regards to run blocking... HORRIBLE!

 

I dont think anyone was going to give us a 2nd or 3rd round pick for RB. Not the way he is playing. Granted the OL isn't really helping things much....

 

I think there's some evidence that points to our run blocking looking poor b/c the defense knew what we were doing and simply filled the holes. For example, if you call a predictable running play and every lineman blocks his guy but the defense rushes a defender into that hole and stuffs the play, it will look like poor run blocking but is actually poor play calling.

 

anyone can guess whether a team is running or passing based on formation and situation and be correct 80% plus of the time even if you're seeing the team for the first time and have no game film on them. The trick is to know where the run is going. I challenge anyone to predict the calls in real time on the gameday thread to predict not just whether we are running or passing but where we are running or passing. I doubt anyone on these boards will have a success rate of greater than 25%

 

The Jets also have a better run blocking offensive line this year so it allows them to stick with the run.

 

I disagree. I never just say run or pass. When I say I predict plays I am always referring to something like "run left" or "Bess on jerk pattern". I don't try to do it every play (that would be annoying) but there are many formations and personnel groupings that when coupled with the situation make it obvious. It has to be much easier if your charting the plays based on coaches tape. Finnegan claimed that he was guessing Marshall's pattern "about 80%" of the time. I don't know what his actual % was, obviously, but it was often enough that it frustrated Marshall. The Pats players claimed that they knew where we were running just based on the personnel package and formation.

 

I also think they made more of a commitment to the run. Unless you're just a great passing team, you usually have to run a certain amount of the time just to keep the D honest. This year there were several games where we didn't run enough. And if we had run more, we would have had more of those successful runs later on so everybody would think we were a better run team.

 

well i have a hard time believing that. tell you what. if you ever have some free time on a sunday, go to the game day thread and try to predict the plays for just one half. i would be interested in seeing someone beat 25%. maybe you can do it. on run plays just predict up the middle, run right inside tackle, run right off tackle, run right sweep wide, run left inside tackle, run left off tackle, run left sweep wide and then also which back gets the run. on pass plays just pick the receiver, back or tight end who will be the first option. you dont even have to bother with calling the route, just whether its short, intermediate or deep. i'll join you in trying to predict the plays. it will be interesting to see how we do. just let me know what game you want to try. i suspect its alot harder to do then people think it is

 

they did. i think we abandoned the run when our coaching staff felt they couldnt rely on it. i think anytime this teams falls behind by two scores or more we will continue to abandon it in favor of the pass. i think we ran against the raiders because the score dictated we could

 

Based on what Carolina did to Cleveland last week they better run the ball again and again to keep Hillis out of the game. I'm convinced Miami's run game will have somewhat of a revival up until that match-up with New England in week 17.

 

I entertain for Dolphin games. Several people come over and watch the game. Due to the cooking and conversation, I can't recall the last time I watched a Dolphin game in real time. I'm usually about a half hour behind. That's why I've never been in a game day thread. I also doubt I could type fast enough to get a prediction out in the three seconds or so before the snap when you can see what formation they've motioned or shifted into and you have seen what personnel is in. (Its easier on the field since you're closer and all you have to do is react or yell the play out rather than type). No promises, but I might be able to track my prediction success as I watch a game, then you could decide if you want to believe me or not. Either way, my predictive ability is not really the issue. The issue is that we have had at least three opponents say we're predictable and a couple of analysts on different stations show that our route combinations have been limited. I guess we could all be lying.

 

perfectly understood. well try it on your own then. i dont doubt you believe it, i just think most people think they are better at it then they really are. and no, i dont take finnegan's word. bmarsh almost laughed out loud when he heard a reporter repeat it to him

 

Its not just Finnegan though. Many people have been saying it. Ignoring everybody or pretending they're all lying just sounds like denial. And if you look at the history, it makes sense. Parcells has always preached running few plays and running them perfectly. Its the same thing Lombardi taught. We still do that now. Sparano just mentioned in his post game press conference that they only ran 5 or 6 different run plays. Henning tends to run those out of set formations. If out of a given formation there are only two or three likely run plays, how hard is it to predict the play? The down and distance is a good predictor of whether the play will be a run or pass. On first downs it is about a toss up, but other than screens or draws, the formation generally keys whether its a run or a pass. And if all you're picking is run and a side its even easier b/c when Henning uses motion he almost always motions the extra blocker to the run side.

Now not all Parcels guys follow that. Sean Peyton is famous for running the same play out of multiple formations. He's still following the basic mantra of run a few plays and run them really well, but he's adapted to eliminate the predictability. Another great example which KB mentioned in another thread is Belichek, who has adapted Parcells' philosophy in a similar manner.

Now in pass plays its more difficult since we don't usually get to see the routes. But there are keys. Whenever Henning uses a stacked set, the back receiver is almost always the primary read. And I've never seen that receiver go deep. Every time I see it, he runs some form of a crossing route. That's just one example, but the point is that if I'm seeing these tendencies while watching in my living room and talking with friends, how much easier is it for somebody studying coaching tape to find the tendencies?

 

rafael, I just spent about 15 minutes typing a post to tell you how wrong you were. I hit the button to post and then had some sort of forum glitch. I'm hating the new forum by the way. I run into one glitch after another and I can't read a damn thing on my phone. I guess the forum just doesn't come up on the cheap stuff. Anyway, I'm not spending another 15 minutes on a post. I'm just going to say -

YOU ARE WRONG!