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Initial Point Spreads for the Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, May 18, 2021.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    https://www.thephinsider.com/2021/5...ns-new-england-patriots-buffalo-bills?src=rss

    Saw this article on the Phinsider pointing out that the initial point spreads have the Dolphins underdogs in weeks 1, 2, 4 and 5...and even odds in week 3 versus the Raiders. We are favorites against the Jaguars overseas (week 6) and the following game against Atlanta (week 7), then against the Texans in week 9.

    In other words, we're not favored in 7 of our first 10 games.

    The flip side of that is that we're favorites in weeks 11, 12, 13 and15, underdogs in 16 and 17, then favored to beat the Pats in the final week. Once you tally that up, initial Vegas odds expect us to go 8-8-1, with the tie being the Raider's pick-em game.

    Interestingly, the Colts are 1.5 point favorites over us, the Pats are 2.5 point favorites at home, the Ravens and Titans are 3 point favorites, then the Giants, Bills @ Miami and Saints are 3.5 point favorites. So that's 7 games the bookies are expecting to be decided by around a field goal.

    To me, that's an optimistic outlook...expect 7 or 8 wins going into the season, then be "in it to win it" in for 7 more games. There's only two obvious expected losses with @Tampa and @Buffalo.

    Week 1 (Sep 12, 4:25pm) - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5)

    Week 2 (Sep 19, 1pm) - Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins

    Week 3 (Sep 26, 4:05pm) - Miami Dolphins (PK) at Las Vegas Raiders

    Week 4 (Oct 3, 1pm) - Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins

    Week 5 (Oct 10, 1pm) - Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)

    Week 6 (Oct 17, 9:30am) - Miami Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in London

    Week 7 (Oct 24, 1pm) - Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

    Week 8 (Oct 31, 1pm) - Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7)

    Week 9 (Nov 7, 1pm) - Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)

    Week 10 (TNF Nov 11, 8:20pm) - Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins

    Week 11 (Nov 21, 1pm) - Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets

    Week 12 (Nov 28, 1pm) - Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)

    Week 13 (Dec 5, 1pm) - New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

    Week 14 - BYE

    Week 15 (Dec 18/19) - New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)

    Week 16 (MNF Dec 27, 8:15pm) - Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

    Week 17 (Jan 2, 1pm) - Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-3)

    Week 18 (Jan 9, 1pm) - New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Well 8-8-1 is about as neutral an outlook as a team can be given. I think that its fair, and that if the team has a shot at the playoffs, they need to win two of those first four games.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I see 11 wins in that schedule. Maybe I’m being a homer but I think outside of Buffalo and TB, all those games are winnable. Baltimore always gives us trouble so I’d count that a loss. Then it’s either Indy or Ten.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I see five games where the Fins should be clear underdogs (Buffalo X2, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Tennessee).

    I see seven games where they should be clear favorites (Jets X2, Atlanta, Carolina, Jacksonville, Giants, Houston)

    I see four games where it's a toss up (New England X2, Vegas, Indy)

    And then who knows what will happen with New Orleans. They don't have Drew Brees anymore, playing in that building on Monday Night is really rough for visitors, and its the end of the season so who knows how both teams will look. I have no idea how to feel about that one right now. It could be a blowout in either direction or a nail biter.

    But at the end of the day, things set up well with so many of the easiest games at home. Taking care of our own business should be right there to be had. And then being in position to make the playoffs likely comes down to those toss up games.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  5. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    8 wins and this regime is no different than the past ****ty regimes!
    3rd year I expect better.Hell even Gase made the Damm playoffs!
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree. If you look back over the last decade, there are countless games where we'd say, "We should have won that one! If they only..."

    And I know as fans, it doesn't pay to play the "what if" game. But the truth is that if we played just a little better and won those close match-ups, a 7 win season becomes an 11+ win season on just a handful of plays. Those close games make the season, and great teams find a way to win. To me it's exciting to see that we have seven of those expected games this year.

    If we go anywhere from 7-10 to 9-8 this season, we're an average team. Anything less and we really blew it. Anything more, and we're actually trending upwards as a team to be excited about.
     
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Truthfully, I see us splitting a game with Buffalo…possibly winning against Tennessee just because they no longer have Arthur Smith as OC. I agree with you on the games we should win. We should beat New England at home as history has shown and Carson Wentz is going to have to show it was Philadelphia that was toxic and not him.

    I can see 10, maybe 11 wins on our schedule…but then again, any given Sunday
     
  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Wentz had one bad year playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league with a bad receiver group. Now he has one of the best OLs and a very stable group of position players. I think he's going to look a whole lot better.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  9. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Kinda where I see it 9-7 we will win one against a team we shouldn’t and lose two against teams we should beat. We need to show clear progression and if we end up year 3 with a 9-7 record I have some major concerns. We’re always in this 7-10 win zone and never making that jump.
     
  10. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think that comes down to not having a franchise QB which leads us to Tua, his development and whether or not he’s that guy. If not, we’ll have a really good roster and coach for the next QB.
     

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