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Is Adam Gase the biggest scam in football???

Discussion in 'AFC East Rivals' started by djphinfan, Apr 17, 2019.

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  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Note- in Fitz's 1st team practice in Miami, he had a 10+ TD day. The media reported he was in full control of the offense, guiding receivers all over the place and he seemed to have instant chemistry with everyone. While you're probably right that he's not the long term solution, he may be the absolute perfect solution for 2019 since he's such an awesome leader and worker. I'm really hoping for Pennington round II this season as he surprises the heck out of a lot of people.
     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah because if he can’t even do that, like wtf are they hiring him for?? Lol, surely it’s not his leadership traits, nor how he teaches the principles of the game.

    Guess he was trying that approach of allowing your assistants to coach Everything so you can focus on playcalling duty..

    Anyone watch belicek practice footage, I have, hours...he’s on the field, in the middle of the action, loud voice, teaching fundamentals..I guess it was gases week off from that.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It doesn’t matter what years, he’s wasn't good enough to get it done..some saw the flaws early, some didn’t.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That was against Tennessee, the Jets, and Oakland. He played slightly below average against Tennessee, which was the best team of the three and made the playoffs, and very well against the Jets and Oakland, both of which finished the season 4-12.

    Again what you see there is Tannehill’s making his living off of poorer competition, which has been his pattern of performance throughout his career, regardless of the variation in his offensive line.

    In other words, you’re misattributing his performance in those games to his offensive line, whereas it’s fully accounted for by the quality of the competition and represents a pattern of play of much longer duration than just those three games.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
  5. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    When Fitz has zero expectation he is great. He is a gun-slinging high powered quarterback.

    When he gets expectations he is terrible. He is an interception throwing machine.

    This is his entire career. Even with the Bucs. There was no pressure the first 3 games and he has one of the if not the best 3 game stint as a quarterback. Talk of him keeping the job, he throws 3 interceptions and plays terrible.

    Each and every spot. It is the same. It is almost like he made a wish on the Monkey's Paw.
     
  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Umm, I started a "We Want Moore" thread in Tannehill's 1st, 2nd and 3rd season. I saw the flaws then and still see them today. The difference between us is that I realized he was our starting QB for 7 years and there was nothing good to come of just randomly bashing him- either he got better or the team was going to struggle. I root for whoever starts for Miami regardless.

    There's a huge difference between rooting for someone to succeed and giving blind, overzealous loyalty.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've never really watched Fitz other than a random game here and there. My general impression is that I like him due to his leadership and fearless approach....I'll take the INT's as long as there's some TD's and huge plays mixed in as well. Matt Moore played the same way and players are drawn to leaders who will take big chances and deal with the consequences later...it makes for some fun football to watch anyway.

    Like I said earlier, I don't think he's the long term answer....but I will enjoy watching him in the gunslinger role this season.
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I mean, I'm not sure what to say.....when his pressures went down, his QBR went up. All of his "perfect" QBR games came on afternoons with a clean pocket.

    As far as the first three games last season goes, you were the one who said he played poorly with a good line in front of him. I was just pointing out that you're clearly off-base since he was 3-0 in that scenario last season.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    He might’ve been 3-0 in that scenario last season, but even in those three games he had one that was slightly below average, and it was against the one of the three teams that had a winning record on the season and made the playoffs, with the other two teams finishing 4-12.

    In other words, he didn’t win that game; the performance he exhibited in that game is associated with more losses than wins across the league.

    The point is that even when Tannehill’s offensive lines were better, he still exhibited the pattern of play in which he made his living off of poorer competition. The quality of the competition was a stronger predictor of his performance than the quality of his offensive lines.

    The upshot is that you could’ve given him the best offensive line he had with the Dolphins, and he still would’ve been expected to play poorly in the playoffs with that unit. There were no surroundings that could’ve been compiled around him that were going to change his penchant for playing poorly against good competition.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yet I can point to NE and their overall record when Brady throws for an 85 or lower rating. Hint: it's not far off from their normal record, and it's far better than the dolphins record when Tannehill threw for an 85 or less. That is not to say Tannehill is better than Brady, it's to show why your line of thinking is flawed.
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I mean, look back to 2017. We started 1-4 with a horrible line, Gase fired two linemen and then we won six straight with Tannehill. It's not a secret that when he has time to throw he's consistently better...the same is true for ANY NFL QB that's not named Russel Wilson.

    At the end of last season...same thing. We were starting 3rd string linemen, RT was constantly under pressure and he completely self-destructed with strip sacks and picks while getting hit. That was after a string of 3-4 really solid games with a high QBR- he just can't handle the pressure consistently.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You’re hearing me say something I’m not saying. What you’re saying is that New England as a team is more able to overcome Tom Brady’s poor performances. That’s not the same thing as saying that Tom Brady’s surroundings make him play better individually.

    What I’ve been saying above is that Ryan Tannehill‘s surroundings could not have made him play better individually.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The same pattern existed in that season. Across those 11 games, the seven wins were against teams with a combined regular season record of 34-62 (35% wins). The four losses were against teams with a combined regular season record of 39-23-2 (63% wins).

    Tannehill's average QB rating in the seven wins against poorer teams overall was 104. His average QB rating in the four losses against good teams overall was 77.7.

    Again, the stronger predictor of Tannehill's individual performance was the quality of the competition, not the quality of his offensive line. He made his living -- in terms of his individual performance -- off of poorer competition.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Nor did I say that his surroundings made him play better. I'm saying that Tannehill got next to no help hiding his deficiencies. Meaning, if Tannehill played poorly, we were going to usually lose. It's a team game, which is all I've ever argued. Tannehill had/has his flaws, and no one denied he had flaws. However, acting like he's the worst in the league or something, while ignoring the fact that record often has more to do with the team than simply the QB, is to to miss the forest for the trees.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I don't remember arguing anything about the team's record in my posts above about Tannehill. What I've been saying is that he plays worse individually against good competition, and more so than the overwhelming majority of QBs in the league, and that it was not a function of the variation in his offensive lines.

    That made him an undesirable QB to enter the playoffs with, since the playoffs of course consist of nothing but the better competition in the league. He could've entered the playoffs with the best offensive line he had with the Dolphins, and he still would've been expected to play poorly, based on his past performance.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You were talking about stats correlating to losses. I pointed out that when Brady has bad stats, his team still wins. It's not all about the QB when you have a good team.
     
  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Watch this video. It will change your mind about Fitzpatrick in before you watch this, you would think my Monkey's Paw thing was just a weird joke.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah those are meaningless stats because they don't adjust for era. And the difference is huge: in 2001 league average passer rating was 78.5 so an 85 was well above average while in 2019 league average was 92.9 so 85 is well below average.

    Here's what Brady's win% looks like for all games he started where he had a passer rating at the value on the x-axis or lower.
    [​IMG]

    I had a post written up about how this related to expected for the league but then realized that "expected" depends on the distribution of passer ratings for QB's across the league and just having fewer ratings at the extremes will naturally produce the curvature that you see as ratings go up – same thing should occur in symmetry as ratings go down except that small sample size creates the jaggedness you see making it hard to see the real shape. It also means this way of analyzing things isn't that useful. Not only is the scale distorted but sample size means data points at the lower end are highly unreliable while data points at the upper end are highly reliable.

    However, if you do want to make a statement similar to the one you made, I'd go with this: "Brady's win% when he has an average or worse passer rating is 48.81%, so about 50%, which HAS to be way more than expected because that includes all games where he played worse than average". So go with that statement if you want, but this way of looking at things won't tell you how MUCH his team helped. For that I think you have to do it the way I've done it before: find the relation between stat X and win% and then remove that win% from actual win% (e.g., that's how I adjusted ratings for defense in the past).
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Actually I was distinguishing individual performance from team performance, by saying that in one game the Dolphins won, Tannehill nonetheless played individually in a way that’s typically associated with losing in the NFL.

    The point was that he played that way against a good team, which supported the point that he tends to play poorly against better competition. Ironically it also means the Dolphins actually did for him in that game what you are arguing the Patriots have done for Brady in many of Brady’s poorer performances.
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I can tell you that that was an aberration then. When I first looked at this, I believe the dolphins were around .300 when Tannehill threw for an 85 or less. Brady, for comparison, was around .600. Actually there were a few highly touted QBs that had had comparable win % even when throwing at an 85 or less.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Given the strong correlation between passer rating differential and winning, the bulk of the effect in that comparison comes from pass defense, and defending against the opposing quarterback and minimizing his passer rating. Over the years, when Brady plays poorly compared to his norm, his team's defense has been able to stifle the opposing QB better than have the defenses of other teams.

    During the Tannehill era (2012-2018), the Dolphins' opponents' passer rating was 89, which was 16th-best in the league during that period. During the Brady era (2001-2018), the Patriots' opponents' passer rating has been 80.4, which has been 3rd-best in the league.

    Hell, when Brady has a game with a passer rating of just 81 to 85, the Patriots' pass defense has, on average, still been able to help the team win the passer rating battle between him and the opposing QB! It's little wonder the team performs well under those conditions.

    All of this says nothing about the individual ability of these QBs, however. It merely highlights the importance of pass defense in the NFL.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
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  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. All that to say what I said: when Brady throws for 85 or less, they still win far more than expected. It's obvious that the defense plays a huge part in those wins. Lol
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but that's a far cry from "it's the offensive line!"
     
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Huh?
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Some people in the thread have postulated that the Dolphins' team performance (won-loss record) during the Tannehill era was a function of the offensive line, and so there may have been an inclination to look at your finding there and attribute it to the Patriots' offensive lines.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Oh.

    Well it's inevitable that poor oline play directly contributed to Tannehill's poor play. So, yeah, the oline is to blame in large part for the terrible offense, and our defense was almost never able to overcome that for entire games. But again, what I'm saying, and I've said all along, GOOD teams are able to pick up the slack for other units when they need to. That is independent of having an elite QB.
     
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  27. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    A better team always makes an opponents team look worse.

    We've done it to the Pats on more then one occasion, once with Cutler as QB after he retired and was coming off some previous game time injuries. Your premises are badly flawed and as far as I am concerned they are clearly based on your personal presumptions; not any real knowledge. Self-aggrandizing is never a good basis for presumptions.

    Take a statistics course and learn something!
     
  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The difference between us is there were things we could of done instead of blindly supporting the flawed Qb for 7 years, or better yet not selected him in the first place..

    The front office has made many mistakes since that point of selection and beyond.

    But yes once he’s a dolphins we should support, doesn’t mean we can’t give our opinion on his game and moves that could be made.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There is variation in that, however.

    About that statistics course....
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What about QBs who play across several eras? Guess their career stats are meaningless because they aren't all adjusted to their most current era.
     
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  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    By most measures he was a below average qb, by some statistical measures he was even worse..he got more chances then he deserved.. put our team on hold for 7 years man..that’s a tough pill to swallow when you feel very strongly he couldn’t fix his issues.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    You have to adjust each year's rating separately to a common year, whichever year that is, and then take the weighted average of the adjusted ratings for each year where the weights are the number of passing attempts. That gives you a career adjusted passer rating that allows you to compare QB's regardless of the eras that QB played in, and that's how I've done it in the past.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The real difficulty occurred when Tannehill completed his rookie contract and had to get paid at the roughly average level at which (the team thought) he was playing. At that point there was no way the team could've assembled the necessary talent around him, under the salary cap, to compensate for him.

    Never pay an average QB an average QB's salary. At that point you're stuck as a team. You have neither the QB who can win you a Super Bowl, nor the surrounding cast that can. You're better off drafting a QB, paying him a rookie's salary, and being either bad and being able to replace him with another highly-drafted one, or having him pan out and eventually paying him accordingly.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...dolphins-signs-contract-extension-2020-season
     
  34. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    2016 was all about Jay Ajayi, people keep trying to point to 2016 as a sign that gase actually wasnt that bad, but the main reason we made the playoffs thay year was Jay Ajayi breaking out and making people fear our running game, not gase's short passing game.
     
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  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hickey and Tannenbaum deciding our future..

    Geez Louise, talk about being fooked
     
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  36. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    The only variation is :
    1) How bad it makes that other team
    2) All that counts about the teams is who wins that day. If a team is 1 and 15 and the team they beat goes to the super bowl, the team with only one win was the best team on the day they played and won. Any attempt to average that out with math or statistical inference doesn't change the events that occurred that day.
     
  37. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I think you are right.

    A player can only be meaningfully evaluated against other players over a common period of play which is usually only a common season and even that should allow for exceptions such as games missed due to injury (the players or possibly another critical teammate).
     
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  38. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    At the end of the day, I think that most of us can agree that Tannehill never played on a team with a good offensive line. Most of the time, the Dolphins had a poor one while he was the QB.

    I think that most of us would also agree that for much of his time at QB, the running game was inconsistent at best. That was partly also due to the bad line, partly due to inconsistency in the backs, and partly due to poor coaching a play calling.

    Given those two factors, I think that its silly to look at other non-elite passers who have had the benefit of a strong offensive line and run game (and defense, in some cases), and say that they are absolutely better than Tannehill. Most quarterbacks are going to perform better when put in an advantageous position. And its pretty clear that on the times RT was put into those advantageous positions, he stepped up and did his job.

    From 2013-2016, when the Fins ran for at least 100 yards in a game, the team was 21-9, and was actually 20-6 from the mid point of 2013 onward. They scored 26.5 ppg in those games. In games where the team allowed one or fewer sacks, the Fins were 15-6 in that same span.

    And in games where they ran for at least 100 yards and also allowed one or fewer sacks, they were 11-2, with one of the losses the last second loss to Green Bay in 2014, and the other the MNF game vs the Giants where the defense allowed Eli to throw for four TDs. They scored an average of 29.4 per game. So to me, its plainly clear that when RT had the support and was healthy, he was a very solid QB for the Fins. He went out and got the job done almost every time. The problem is that the team only had 13 of those good games in his 44 starts during the period. He needs a solid OL to succeed, and when he gets it, the results are there.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Rushing yards per game is more of an effect than a cause of winning, specifically due to the winning team running out the clock. You can see that in the following graph where almost the entire difference in rushing attempts between a winning and losing team is due to the 4th quarter (graph shows this by point differential, which directly maps to expected win%):
    [​IMG]

    So while it's obvious a QB will do better with better surrounding cast, you can't use rushing yards to demonstrate that. Have to use an efficiency stat such as rushing yards per carry instead. The problem is that rushing Y/C has an average correlation with win% over NFL history of only 0.1613, meaning that 0.1613^2 = 0.026, or only 2.6% of win% can be explained by that stat.

    It's just in general difficult to use readily available stats to estimate the effect of OL and the rushing game because of this. There's much less difficulty with passing stats because the correlations are so high, especially with efficiency stats such as passer rating.
     
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  40. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Well, then I guess you have to rely on the good old subjective eyeball test then.
     
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