While DE and CB are certainly needs on this team. The reality is that the Dolphins biggest area of need at this time is LT and RG. So like it or not, I believe the Dolphins will use their first round selection to upgrade the offensive line.
I don't really think the Dolphins have any interest in drafting Austin in the first round. Especially after all the money they have invested in the WR position in the off season. I think there are just some individuals on this forum who like the idea of the Dolphins drafting him, but it isn't going to happen.
I think defensive line is as big of a need as any. Neither Soliai nor Starks are under contract after this season, and Odrick has one more after this year. They really need to bring in some young talent on the DL.
The idea that Miami's 4th receiver will only play 15% of the time is off. In Joe Philbin's final year as the Packers offensive coordinator, their top 4 receivers played a lot: Greg Jennings 713 snaps Jordy Nelson 699 snaps Donald Driver 563 snaps James Jones 555 snaps Randall Cobb 309 snaps The Packers ran 1157 total offensive plays that year. So, percentage wise: Jennings 61.6% Nelson 60.4% Driver 48.7% Jones 48% Cobb 26.7% That season, Packer receivers ran a total of 1,735 passing routes and were targeted 328 times. Of those 1,735 routes, 636 were ran from the slot with 127 targets on those routes. Looks to me like Joe Philbin definitely uses the slot receiver position. Basically, 37% of the pass routes the Packers receivers ran were from the slot, while 39% of their targets were to the slot receivers.
I won't argue that DL is a need also. I just figure that the most important position on the team in the QB. You have to have offensive lineman who can protect this most valuable position. Right now the Dolphins have huge holes at LT and RG. If Ireland thinks he can fill these needs in the second round, then he should go with a player on the DL in the first round. I just think that Ireland is more inclined to draft for areas of need for this season and he will probably draft a couple of defensive linemen in the second or third round this year, in hopes they will develop for the 2014 season, when they might be needed to fill the slots vacated by Starks and Soliai. As far as Odrick is concerned, I don't think the Dolphins will have any trouble replacing him with a third or fourth round pick this year or next year. I just don't think Odrick is very good and he won't be missed if he leaves the Dolphins once he becomes a free agent.
Last season the most seemed to be Philly whom had Riley Cooper end up with 498 snaps. It's possible part of it was injury related, but KB21 has some of the information for the Packers in the past. There's a lot of wiggle room though. Brandon Gibson can get a pretty good workload just rotating with Hartline and Bess. If it's just those three guys playing exclusively the split end/flanker positions and you divide it equally you can easily have three guys with 700+ snaps.
Even then, you still have young talent on the OL that is much better than the young talent on the DL. I wouldn't be surprised to see them take Sheldon Richardon. He's pretty much an ideal fit for what they want at RDE.
If they draft Tavon Austin, Bess is going to be cut. Even if they don't draft Austin, Bess is likely gone. ETA: I'm assuming you meant Wallace
There are always rumors at this time of year. Like this one they generally involve somebody matching team and an alleged need. This gets picked up and repeated and then becomes "what people are hearing". I'm not as worried about Martin. He reminds me a lot of Joe Staley his first year. And if he want to protect RT on the right side, Ireland would be best served by signing a vet and drafting a guy like Menelik Watson in the 2nd.
A trade up wouldn't thrill me, but there is some sense in what Shou wrote at the beginning of this thread. I don't know the exact cap figures for the top 10 picks these days, but I think it's low enough that trading picks in return for a LT whom you believe can lock down that position for several years at a good price is a consideration. Draft picks are assets and assets don't necessarily need to equal new players. If LT can be locked up and if you can get near Jake Long production at a much lower price, then the draft picks thrown into a trade up would amount to trading picks for cap space. In this way, you could use some of that extra money to re-sign Starks and/or Soliai, which would make DT less of a concern going forward. You could also use some of that extra money to re-sign Keller and/or Grimes, if either has a decent year. Therefore, any traded picks won't "go to waste" in some effort to tread water with regard to losing Jake Long. The picks would free up money to help retain some of the pieces that are already in place. Again, I wouldn't be thrilled by a trade up for a tackle, but at the same time, such a move by itself wouldn't be a demonstration of incompetence by the FO.
To me, that is completely backwards. The rookie scale made draft picks more valuable and because the costs are so low, you can have 3 potential starters for a little bit of money, instead of just one.
Touche. My only other thought was if we in fact were trying to trade up for Dee Milliner and were using Lane Johnson as a smoke screen.
Possibly, but I'm not really in favor of trading up. I don't see any prospects in this draft as truly elite. I'd prefer to not trade up.
If we're going tackle in the 1st round, something tells me we have a better chance of standing pat and plugging right tackle with a likely All Pro in Fluker than trading up for Johnson.
You're already getting 3 potential starters for a little bit of money with the normal allotment of draft picks. This situation is about whether to get 5 potential starters for a little bit of money or whether to get 3 and free up space for re-signings. Keep in mind, I'm not even saying I would do this. I really like the idea of drafting 5 kids and letting them grow up together. At the same time, I'm also sure I won't like it if the team loses Starks, Soliai, Keller, and Grimes next year (providing they all have good, healthy years this year). Whether a trade is backwards or not depends on 2 things: the team's draft board and the team's long term plan for impending FA's. If Ireland & Company see more than a handful of prospects that they love (and think they can get) in the first 3 rounds, then they shouldn't make a trade.
I think people are dramatically over-enthralled by the seemingly limitless possibilities of the draft and letting it color their perceptions about trading up. Quantity works well in providing your bread and butter and the occasional home run, but there aren't enough really good players in a draft to expect for them to fall to you. If you think you got a guy who can be elite there shouldn't be any issue in trading for him.
It's not that cut and dry. It depends on the year etc... The difference to me between having say Lane Johnson plus Martin LT-RT isn't worth say losing Martin at LT, Menelik Watson-RT plus quite possibly two 2nds including one from a trade down as opposed to a trade up, a future 2nd, and possibly more. To compare: Lane Johnson Jonathan Martin versus Jonathan Martin Menelik Watson late second rounder (moving down compensation) late second rounder future second rounder let's say a 5th rounder That's the opportunity cost involved.
Cost-effectivness analysis on the blind side protector of the future of our franchise? Gotta pass on that. I can see that it's a point of view that holds water. If you can draft a young Jake Long but have to move up because we lost a declining Jake Long, pull the trigger. We :knock on wood: don't have the luxury of having first dibs. But if we can be in play for first dibs, go on and play. Just know your getting a Long.
I agree. And giving RT a target that can get quick separation will protect him as much or more than a rookie T.
There are limitless possibilities. That's a good thing and I don't see how limiting our shots at players increases our chances of becoming significantly better. I'm not saying you never trade up. I'm saying a 7-9 team shouldn't be spending 3 high picks on a LT. There is no LT that is a better prospect in this draft, than Jake was. His play was elite for a bit and while it was, it was not worth 3 high picks, let alone since his play dropped and that now he's gone. To say an elite LT is worth 3 high picks, you have to quantify the value in the difference in play between a good LT and an elite one. If you can't put a quantifiable value on it, then I don't see how you can say 3 high picks is suitable value.
I gotcha, read Tannehils initials wrong...I'm real good with drafting Watson at 2a, love him..still think the situation is a mess, I don't believe in Martin, i want to, but its not there at this point, and there are really no left tackles in the market to sign, and I don't want to move up for one, so basically I'm fooked, just gonna have to hope, or get real busy on the tackle situation.
And it's not as daunting as it looks on paper. Miami really isn't a position at this point where they have to worry about 85%+ of 2nd or later round draft results. You're likely to get more along the lines of 0-1 above average starters in the stuff you're trading away rather than 3-4.
You could make a strong case for drafting Eifert the same way, IMO. He's not going to gain the quick separation that Tavon Austin will, but Eifert gives him the big, physical receiving presence that he doesn't currently have that will be a redzone threat. I think you are doing yourself good if you take Eifert and then follow that up with Ryan Swope, who I still feel is very underrated and is one of my favorite players in the draft.
I think a lot of us are hoping Carradine with the second pick, whether or not we have to move up for him.
I wouldn't mind Sheldon Richardson at all. The fact they were interested in Michael Bennett tells me that DE is in play at 12.
I don't disagree with any part of that post. If, for example, the Dallas' interest in Vaccaro were genuine and Miami were to trade back to #18 for say an extra third. They could then take Eifert and maybe package two of those thirds for another second. That could possibly net them Carradine, Cyprien and Menelik Watson in the second and a Bailey or Swope in the third (I actually wouldn't be surprised if Swope made it to the fourth). That's obviously a lot of moving around and there's debate about whether Carradine and Cyprien will make it to the second (I actually think they will although I'm more worried about Cyprien), but part of this pre-draft period is about dream drafts. That would be one of my dream draft scenarios.
As much as I want Tavon, if my options were: 1. Tavon with first pick and get a TE later like Kelce or 2. Eifert and get a WR later like Bailey or Swope I personally would not hesitate to take #2. Eifert is a monter, bro. But I'm more concerned with RDE than I am with WR/TE. There are quite a few of each of them, but the value of the people who can aggressive play RDE and rush the passer falls off pretty early and goes into more 'project' type players a lot faster
No you're not, but I think you've got to realize there is a limited physical profile for what they want at the position. A guy who is going to "start" at the position has to be able to play like a 3-4 DE and like an edge rusher depending on alignment. You're looking at a 280+ pound guy, someone like Justin Tuck or Carlos Dunlap. Otherwise you're paying a high pick for a situational player which they might not want to do.
I place a really high value on pass rushers. I just don't see the drop off as great as you do. I see the top DEs as Ansah, Werner, Datone Jones, Okafor and Carradine. I wouldn't be surprised if two of those fell to the second round (I expect at least one will). IMO they all have warts. Even if they all went before our second round pick, I don't see the drop off to Sam Montgomery and Corey Lemonier as huge (I never had Damontre Moore ranked highly). And that doesn't count the prospects generally labeled as OLBs like Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones and Mingo. I just think there's a ton of players bunched fairly high with similar potential and that as a result some will fall to our later picks. And there's still a few guys out there in FA as well.
I agree with this as well. although I was moreso referring to post second round talent, I only see one of those 6 you listed dropping, in my opinion. but pretty spot on otherwise.
