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Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 5, 2013.

  1. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    That bottom group is pretty lacking.:shifty:
     
  2. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Then since this thread falls apart at the seams for you, I'd expect you to be done with it for good and participate in it no more. :)
     
  3. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    It's nice work, Shou.
    I just think it's nonsense.
    I refuse to buy into stat that stats Hartline, Bess and Avery are better players than Reggie Wayne, which is exactly what it is trying to tell me. Isn't it?
     
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  4. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Where exactly do you see that happening in the original post? :headscratch:
     
  5. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    Sorry not the original post.
    Post #18.
     
  6. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    That post isn't saying they're "better." It's saying they helped their team win by making important plays just as much or more.
     
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  7. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    No, you are seeking the incorrect answer by asking a loaded question. That is not logic. That is not proof. That is simply an inverted means of issuing a prejudged statement which supports your previously displayed position. You would have lost a point or several in debate.
     
  8. Ducken

    Ducken Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    Or you could do yds per game, so lets see how they compare over their careers

    Name TD #Rec TD to Rec..............................YPG
    Bess 12 321 26.75.................................44.8
    Hartline 06 183 30.50................................45.9

    C. Johnson 54 488 9.04..................................85.2
    Jennings 53 425 8.02..................................68.1
    Finley 17 198 11.65................................38.8
    Wayne 78 968 12.41.................................69.1
    Hilton 7 50 7.14.................................57.4
    Wallace 32 235 7.34.................................64.2
    Bowe 39 415 10.64..............................65.1
    Jones 18 133 7.39................................74.4
    A. Johnson 56 818 14.61...............................81.6(crazy)
    Gronkowski 38 187 4.92 (INSANE!!!!)...............61.9
    Green 18 162 9.00................................77.6

    I don't know about you but the evidence is mounting that our starting WR were pretty much average. They do some nice things but they are not play makers. In fact this was the only year those two came close to the rest, so if Tanny could do that for them just think what he could do with real play makers? Make me excited to know he is our QB of the future!!!!
     
  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Yeah, like you don't post in threads where you disagree with premise.

    I'm still waiting for someone to explain this stat in regards to an individual player and how there's no subjectivity involved.
     
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  10. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    [​IMG]
     
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  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Why don't you try explaining how and to what extent there is, and if there is, how that degree of subjectivity undermines the findings in the original post to a significant degree.

    Now I'm the one "waiting." :)
     
  12. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    :wacko:
     
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  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I don't know, since it hasn't been explained sufficiently yet. I swear to god, this is like beating my head against a wall.

    Do you or do not understand the word "explanation"?

    How do you assign a given number to a given play to a QB or WR?
     
  14. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    From the original post:

     
  15. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Its assigned to both. Anyone that is directly involved in the play.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Right, I know, how does that translate to the QB/WR's WPA? How does it apply to WR who just flat out dropped the ball and the QB who did everything perfectly or vice versa?
     
  17. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Why are you purposely being difficult?
     
  18. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    I'm curious to know how they determine what the players assignment actually was.
     
  19. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    Easy answer is I hope so.
     
  20. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I would encourage people with these sorts of questions to visit this page and to e-mail Brian Burke with further questions:

    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/win-probability-added-wpa-explained.html
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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  22. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Because it has construct and predictive validity.
     
  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    What exactly does it predict?
     
  24. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Win Probability Added (WPA) – The difference between a team’s Win Probability (WP) at the start of a play and the WP at the end of the play. WPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the outcome of a game. An individual player’s WPA is the sum of the WPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty. Defensive players are credited for WPA when they tackle or sack the ball carrier, are credited with an assisted tackle or sack, cause a fumble, defend a pass, or are flagged for a penalty.
     
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  25. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The future QB ratings of rookie QBs.
     
  26. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Career passer rating. Did you even read the OP???
     
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  27. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    I got a chance to interview Shou (not really).

    This is what I found out.

    [video=youtube;Mjb82ORfWu0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mjb82ORfWu0&feature=youtu.be[/video]
     
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  28. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    :lol: Love it!

    I have more hair though. ;)

    Also, do you realize the OP IMO is a big point in Tannehill's favor? :yes:
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    How?

    2011 Cam Newton had a 2.05
    2012 Cam Newton had a 3.14
    What precisely about the 2011 number predicted his increase?

    2011 Christian Ponder had a -.61
    2012 Christian Ponder had a 1.60
    What precisely about the 2011 number predicted his increase?

    2011 Eli Manning had a 3.96
    2012 Eli Manning had a 2.44
    What precisely about the 2011 number predicted his decrease?

    Speaking of Eli, does his 2011 WPA of 3.96 predict he'd beat Tom Brady's 6.63 for the Lombardi?

    It doesn't seem to predict anything at this point, whether for rooks or vets.
     
  30. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Actually if you look back at the original post, it predicts the future QB ratings of rookie QBs.
     
  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I'll ask again, how does a dropped pass score for the QB and for the WR? Let's say it is 3rd & 7, down by 5, with 50 sec left, the pass would have been for 20 yrd gain and got them across the 50.
     
  32. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Did you not understand my post?
     
  33. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Sure. You asked how it predicts the future QB ratings of rookie QBs. Here's how:

     
  34. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I think you should e-mail Brian Burke about that.

    For my purpose here, your question is irrelevant because the statistic has both construct and predictive validity. The question is of concern to you but not to me, so I suggest you ask someone else to answer it, with the creator of the stat likely being the best person IMO. You can ask me again if you'd like, and I'll ignore the question.
     
  35. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So Cam Newton's career number will be about 2.05?
     
  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    2.05 is not a QB rating.
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ah I see.

    Direct question, deflected. Clearly this stat is the greatest thing ever, so great questions can't be directly answered about it to those who are unworthy.
     
  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    2.05 equals 84.5 career?
     
  39. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    No, actually irrelevant question deflected. I don't have to play your game.
     
  40. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Now we're back at the point we were the other day, where the misunderstanding revolves around your lack of knowledge of statistics. Do some homework on statistical prediction via correlation.
     

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