Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB?

What it tells me is that it confirms our concerns of Ryan's lack of TD throws. We can debate the blame, but not the result

 

Who is debating the result?

 

Jesus, why do I always feel like Ben affleck in good will hunting in these threads...

 

And your buying that?

 

Yes. Why wouldn't I? I have said on more than one occasion, that the second Garrard got hurt, the #1 priority switched from winning the SB to getting Tannehill ready.

 

IDK, just a turn of phrase.

 

Frankly the best explanation I think

 

I thought it was obvious in camp who the best Qb was...I wasn't impressed with Garrard in camp..your implying that our coaches sabotaged a season for what is the best route to develop a Qb was?

 

No, I'm not implying anything...I'm saying winning wasn't the first priority.

 

I guess I'm confused as to why it needed to be said.

Any analysis of Tannehill has been colored by the significantly below average play of his receivers. That's not to say he couldn't have played better on his own, he certainly could have. The point is, had he had better talent and played exactly like he did, we'd be talking Luck type numbers.

 

Same thing no?

 

so if we just add the discrepency of talent that Ryan had relative to other rookie qbs skillset players, apply the positive difference on Tannehills side, it will have raised his Qbr, thus making all statistical comparisons previously used based on Qbr, moot.?

 

I think so.

Again, WPA and qb rating absolutely do not make any allowances for a WR's skill. For the most part, that is ok because #1 WRs in the league aren't generally all that far apart from each other skill wise. But sometimes, you have WRs who are so below that it will affect the QBs numbers.

I tried to point this out here: http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?74101-Alternative-Receiver-Ratings

Here's Indy's top 2 receivers:
Wayne = 16.51
Hilton = 19.01

Here's Seattle's Top 2 receivers:
Rice = 15.81
Tate = 17.13

Now here's Miami's Top 2:
Hartline = 12.76
Bess = 10.05

I mean its not even close. And this is based on stats that have very little to do with the QB.

 

fact is, you can't prove Ryan will throw for 30 TDs with a better cast. You think he will and I think he will, but 12 is a god-awfully low number for any cast we have to admit.

 

He a few Tds flat out dropped.

 

More than other QBs? idk

How many other rookie QBs played with a cast as bad as Ryan? Idk that answer either, but I do know that 12 TDs is low historically

 

QBR for certain would have increased. More touchdowns=higher QBR, assuming everything else remains constant. While I'm not as familiar with WPA, throwing touchdowns can only make it go up. It's just that good play in crunch time is worth more WPA wise than when the game isn't on the line. So a 99 yard touchdown pass to win the game as time expires would be worth +0.999 while the same with a 3 TD lead would be worth 0. It's an interesting metric in any case.

You're exactly right. Because each of WPA, QBR, and PAPTD are clearly correlated (fewer PAPTD means more TDs means higher QBR, etc), you wouldn't simply want to throw them into a model. If I had more time I would probably use some sort of principal component analysis to remove the correlation and see what we get. But I'm not sure it's going to change the result anyway. It's clear that the main issue is RT getting the ball into the endzone--whether that will change, time will tell.

 

Why not?

 

a few superbowl winning quarterbacks have thrown less. I get what you are saying, but his numbers for a raw rookie with few targets are not bad.

 

All true.

However, the QB can throw a bad pass and it can still be a completion, whereas its virtually impossible for a completion to happen if the WR doesn't do his job. That was my point to you all along. Just look at the difference between Vincent Jackson & Brian Hartline. They each have almost the exact same amount of catches.

VJ = 147 targets for 72 completions
BH =128 targets for 74 completions

Yet VJ has about 300 more yards, 5 more yards a catch, 7 more TDs, 10 more 20+ yard catches, 60 more YAC and 13 more 1st downs. That is striking in the difference between WR skill.

 

Take percentages and stats out of your head for a minute, and look at this strictly from a logic standpoint. A completed pass happens between 2 people. Here are the possible scenarios:

- Thrower does his job correctly + catcher does his job correctly = 1 catch
- Thrower doesn't do his job correctly + catcher does his job correctly = 1 catch
- Thrower doesn't do his job correctly + catcher does his job correctly = 1 incomplete
- Thrower doesn't do his job correctly + catcher doesn't do his job correctly = 1 incomplete

By this alone, you can see that a completion must ALWAYS be because a WR did his job correctly. (Unless you count a ball getting stuck in a face mask like that one movie,...but we're not)

Because of the above logic, very little is attributed to the QB of the score I generated, because I only dealt in stats that were after the completion was made and the QB was no longer involved. Its why I didn't use attempts/targets or INTs, for example.

Also, the scores don't vary that much when the QB is different. Take Denver's WRs. They had similar scores with Tebow as they did with Manning.

 

He threw 13 INT's too. Which is pretty good to be honest... He finished 16th in the league. Also not bad for a rookie, with no threats, throwing in tight windows. Hell, that Houston game alone was a disaster adding two picks right off the bat. I really did like the fact he went on a pretty good stretch of no picks either.

I think people forget that Dan Marino's 20TD rookie season (only 10 starts though) was the cream of the crop for damn near 30 years. Cam Newton only threw 21 last year in 16 starts. Ryan Tannehill certainly didn't compare as well as other rookies this year. Then again, Andrew Luck is a phenom and RGIII and Russell Wilson both are multi year starters (3 and 4) who're running a revolutionary offensive system (doesn't hurt).

Plus, I think there's enough reasons for that beyond his personal talent level that hampered him. All things considered, he met expectations for me this season. And once he gets more comfortable in the redzone, hopefully that TD number raises and we won't have to settle for FG inside the goal line. All in all, excited to see him in 2013.

 

What I think you are missing here is VJ has a QB that hits him down the field whereas BH does not. That also will open up more YAC and TDs as well.

The following are how many yards down the field each of the WRs were when the ball got to them:

VJ:
Behind line of scrimmage: 2 catches
1-10 yards: 24 catches
11-20 yards: 21 catches
21-30 yards: 10 catches
31-40 yards: 2 catches
41+ yards: 2 catches

BH:
Behind line of scrimmage: 1 catch
1-10 yards: 38 catches
11-20 yards: 18 catches
21-30 yards: 6 catches
31-40 yards: 4
41+ yards: 0

Now I am not saying BH is better than VJ or the same level. However, your argument the QB doesn't impact the WR seriously ignores what the stats above show. What a big advantage to have a QB that can hit the WR with the football running down the sidelines or seems where the WR doesn't have to get beyond traffic like short passes.

I recall Tannehill making a living in several games on quick slants to Hartline in which Tannehill made up his mind pre-snap. As soon as BH caught the ball he was tackled limiting his YAC b/c the DB played tight bu BH got inside position.

Where your stats also get skewed imo are the TDs. Now if there is a way to include how many TDs were dropped in the end zone vs. caught I could see a legit variable adding in to determine the effectiveness of the WR. I don't recall BH dropping any TD passes. Should a WR get punished b/c a QB is limited in his ability to drive the team down the field and give the WR an opportunity to catch a TD pass? I think not. Sure explains why Fitzgerald of AZ ranks so low when in reality he is probably right behind C. Johnson in skills.

 

Furthermore, BH only had 1 catch with the ball in the red zone as compared to VJ catching 10 in the red zone for 5 TDs. Talk about an unfair advantage when comparing WRs when one is not getting thrown to accurately in the red zone when the other is.

 

All of that is assuming BH was open down field as much as VJ. I'm not making that assumption. I'm also not saying my score is the end all be all. I am saying that my score shows BH to be one of the worst WRs in the game with ball in his hands. If you want to blame that on Tanny, that's fine, but then you have to prove Tanny was equally as bad at his position. There is no evidence to support that however.

That's not my argument. That's never been my argument. And again you keep making an unfounded assumption that BH was open down field all the time and Tanny just simply couldn't hit him.

You just described BH not getting a lot of separation and Tanny having to fit the ball into a tight space.

They aren't skewed. Look a QB cannot complete a TD pass unless his target does his job. It is impossible. That is logic not statistics.

 

Why wasn't BH open more in the endzone?

 

Sometimes I wonder if you guys are being serious. If you understand the difference in stature and physicality between the two you should understand what Fin is saying.

VJ has been a downfield threat and TD maker for his whole career. That's why he was franchised and given a big time contract. Hartline is not a down field threat or TD maker and will never see a tag or big time contract. You can do all the stat analysis you'd like but there's no substitute for watching the games. That's when you'll notice how often guys are doubled or have a safety shaded to their side. How big of a cushion they receive, how quick they eat up the cushion, how close they get to the DB before he turns his hips to guard vs the big play etc.

There honestly shouldn't even be a discussion about this but it bears talkin about the GM.

 

Some WRs are big, tall, physical etc and can catch the ball even when we'll covered. Those guys tend to score more TDs and get more targets in the red zone. Seriously, what QB wants to throw it up for grabs to Brian Hartline?

 

You don't think Tannehill would benefit having a guy that can break tackles and house the *****?

 

I'm sorry man but a blind monkey can see our receiving corps mostly sucks.