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Is the New Offensive Scheme/ Personnel Talent Responsible Improvement for...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Disnardo, Sep 3, 2011.

  1. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is the new Offensive Scheme responsible for more points production as well as, more 20 yards+ pass plays this Pre-Season???

    I read where Tony spoke on changing his Offensive phylosiphy (wethered forced or his own decision), and I also heard on the radio the other day from Bess himself, that they like the attacking style Offense. They want to keep Defenses on their heels...

    But since there is only Pre-season data to aquire any such substantiation, I did a couple of hours of homework to see, if there really a noticeable improvement, something that we can kind of sink our teeths on, albeit it is only Pre-Season data...

    I, know that the pool from where this data reflects the Pre-Seasons from 2008-2011, is small but let see...

    Using and taking into consideration our Offenses being lead by our Season starting and Back-up (2nd String) QBs. I used this data point, even though all of the Offensive team were not seen as Season starters...

    In the 2008 Pre-seaon, the Offensive team scored an average 14 points per game and had completed 6 passes, of 20+ yards. The QB's completed 67% of the 94 attempts or 63 completions. Only 10% of those completions went for at least 20 yards...

    In the 2009 Pre-season, the Offensive team scored an average 12 points per game and had completed 5 passes, of 20-39 yds. They completed 1 pass for 40+ yards. The QBs completed 61% of the 96 attempts or 59 completions. Only 10% of those completions went for at least 20 yards...

    In the 2010 Pre-season, the Offensive team scored an average 12 points per game and had completed 5 passes, of 20-39 yds. They completed 1 pass for 40+ yards. The QBs completed 53% of the 93 attempts or 49 completions. Only 12% of those completions went for at least 20 yards...


    In this Pre-season, the Offensive team scored an average 17 points per game and had completed 11 passes, of 20-39 yds. They completed 3 passes for 40+ yards. The QBs completed 63% of the 100 attempts or 63 completions. This time 22% of those completions went for at least 20 yards...

    This Preseaon this Offensive team with its top two Qb's had over 50% more 20+ yards plays then they had over the last 3 Pre-seasons. They also improved their points per game by about 30%...

    Maybe, just maybe, and don't take my word for it, but this will be an interesting season for a team without a coach and a coach without a team...

    EDITED- Nice write up by Volin of the Palm Beach Post...
    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/dolphins/dolphins-hope-sparanos-lighter-touch-means-more-wins-1818248.html

    Also this little nugget...
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2011
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  2. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Two conclusions jump out from your analysis for me. (Obviously, people can draw their own causes, but this my feeling).

    One is that the system is different this year. We are attacking down the field more. And we are scoring more points.

    Two is that you can see that the there is a correlation between how the offense is performing in the preseason and how it does in the the regular season. That bodes well for this year.
     
  3. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I've read a lot from the media expecting the Phins to be a very conservative team, running a lot, because of Sparano and Daboll's history. I have seen the opposite in preseason, and opposing D's have no film to get ready for this unknown.

    I believe we will see this on MNF. It will not be like the Wildcat vs the Pats but, be a big change. I can see it as enough to confuse Mr Bill and a Phins win.
     
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  4. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    The one thing that we can also draw from the numbers you pulled up, is that the offense during the PS pretty much matched the results from the resulting seasons as well (from my memory, not from the stats, I'm too lazy to look it up). That has to be a good sign. If this offense can jump up 5 points a game during the season, we could see a more successful season. I'm not sold on that just yet, as everyone says, it's just the PS, but there is a correlation that can't be too far overlooked...

    One other thing that's a good sign for us and imho is most important, is that the players have bought into the system as being 'better' than what we had with Henning. Whether the staff has bought into that yet remains to be seen. But at least the players think we can do some things we haven't done in the past...

    That is a big question, whether Sparano buys into the more aggressive style. If he tries to hold Daboll back that could be a 'not so good thing'. We'll see. Hopefully he will open up his ultra-conservative approach and let Daboll do his thing...
     
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  5. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Yeh..I keep reading in most media..football, fantasy football, and it's like everyone is ignoring everything we have done in preseason. You'd think they thought Henning was still here. When our offense indeed looks night and day compared to the past..there will be this scripted shock...and all of us will be like...where have you'll been?

    It's funny because everyone still humps the Jets legs, but Henne has been lights out compared to Sanchez. Which is fine for me...because I'm getting Marshall in the 6th round!!!

    When you have a head coach who has nothing to lose...and an OC in the same boat...it can be a powerful combination if caution is thrown to the wind
     
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  6. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    The one disturbing thing was the appearance of the running plays once inside the 5 when you moved the ball down into the 5 with the pass. That brought back the ugly memories.
     
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  7. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I will wait until the Dolphins actually play a game that counts before I accept that they are going to be an improved offense. Since defenses in the NFL don't game plan for preseason games, there is no possible way to determine if the Dolphins will be a more productive offensive team this year. Last year the Patriots were a far superior team to the Dolphins and next Monday night will show if the Dolphins have improved or if we can just expect another year of bad to mediocre play from the offense. I still have big doubts concerning Henne and I have seen no improvement in the offensive line play from last year. While Bush certainly adds speed to the offensive lineup, I just don't see him being able to run effectively behind this offensive line. He also has a history of missing games due to injury, so I would be surprised if he didn't miss 3-4 games during the regular season. While I hope this offense is improved from last season. What it did during the preseason means absolutely nothing once the real games begin.
     
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  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I have been very successful in my fantasy leagues over the years by looking at the offensive flow of teams in the preseason. I'm not talking stats or wins, but the rhythm of the offense. I find that correlates very well to the offensive performance during the regular season. And everything in Nardo's numbers coincides with that.
     
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  9. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also did some checking and did not place into original post, but I toook the scoring during Pre-seasonS and compared to scoring during the Regular Season of the last 3 years...

    The team scored and average of 7 points per game more than what they scored during the Preseason. Here is how they broke down...

    2008- PS= 14 ppg... RS= 21 ppg...= +7 ppg difference...
    2009- PS= 12 ppg... RS= 22 ppg...= +10 ppg diffence...
    2010- PS= 12 ppg... RS= 17 ppg...= +5 ppg difference...
    Average the last 3 years difference= 7 ppg... add it to PS = a forecasted 24 ppg for the 2011 Regualr Season...

    Will we be able to score 24 ppg, if Defenses play more zone coverages against Henne and or bring more pressure on the DL side??? Don't really have an accurate answer, but it will be an observation worth taking, against one of the elite Defensive coaches on September 12th...
     
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  10. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO if we're averaging 24 points per game, we'll be winning quite a bit. I think that with our defense that anything above 22 pts gets us in the thick of the playoff race. In '09 our defense wasn't good enough to make that 22 pt average pay off, but this year's defense should be much better.
     
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  11. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rafael, here is something interesting that clicked when you brought this up...

    In 2008, the team scored at least their Season average of 21 ppg, in 8 games...
    In 2008, the Defense allowed at least their Season average of 20 ppg, in 6 games...
    Helps achieve a record of 11-5...

    In 2009, the team scored at least their Season average of 22 ppg, in 10 games...
    In 2009, the Defense allowed at least their Season average of 24 ppg, in 10 games...
    Defensive struggles helped achieve a record of 7-9...

    In 2010, the team scored at least their Season average of 17 ppg, in 7 games...
    In 2010, the Defense allowed at least their Season average of 21 ppg, in 6 games...
    Offensive struggles helped achieve a record of 7-9...

    You cannot win games if your Offense does not score more points than your Defense allows... but we all know that...
     
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  12. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    It seems like the offense was bailing out the team more often in 2009 and the defense was doing the saving in 2010. In '08 they were both doing pretty good.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Good news and bad news no?, good news, passing game, bad news, running game..

    I agree on your take on the correlation between the preseason and regular season, and the reason why I have calculated optimism is because I don't believe we were a good running team last year, yet we still controlled TOP in most games, won 8 games, beat the two teams that played each other in the superbowl, and did it with an incredible amount of variables that were condusive to losing football teams, especially teams that were in year 3 of a serious rebuilding phase..

    I also like what we have done without the offenses best player, and blindside protector..That should really give Henne a boost of confidence knowing how he performed without his best player, and when you add the leagues best lineman to the equation, you can expect different results.

    Here's the thing, and it may sound strange, but I like the approach of somewhat conservative style football when you have a very good defense, I just want to do it with better balance as a football team, and addressing those weaknesses with better skillful players, and coaches, is all that I had in mind, because I thought Henne performed well enough under those circumstances to continue the rebuild.

    What I'am hoping for is a more aggressive, yet with still a bit of conservatism left in, with better special teams, better scheming offensively, with more explosive skillsets adding yac and dynamics to create space for the players to make plays.
     
  14. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Guys, could this year be like the Passing game, opens up the Running game?
    We know opponents, will still try to confuse Henne with pre-snap coverages, and the only thing, IMO, that they should keep Henne in Shotgun formations for most of the game. That way he can see the shifts when it happens... this is one of the major reasons for his TO's last year, when he kept his back to the LOS after snaps, and threw to a spot on the field...
     
  15. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    As I've mentioned before everybody defines "aggressiveness" (or "conservative") their own way. Is a check down pass out of the spread to Bush conservative or aggressive? I see it as a fairly safe play, but some would see it as aggressive just b/c of the formation. Others would say that any thing but a run up the middle is aggressive.
     

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