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Jake Long gone. Blessing in disguise

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Eop05, Mar 18, 2013.

  1. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    NJ
    Sorry for another thread on the subject, but it seems like this may be the only thread with the theme that we may be better off without Jake or that his loss won't be bad for the team, and that St. Louis may not be getting the player they think they're getting.

    Since around October or November, I've been banging the drum that Jake Long has been overrated by most Dolphin Fans and that we should not re-sign him for the money he would be asking. And I'm quite satisfied that we stood pat and let the Rams supposedly outbid us. Because 4 yr/36 million is overpaying for what was produced.

    Just to clarify: I was in favor of selecting Long #1 overall, and have been a big fan of his. I think he's is a very good Tackle, but he's certainly overrated.

    Jake Long came into the league as the #1 overral pick and didn't disappoint, but IMO this was mostly an illusion created by Dan Henning and his hyper conservative offense with respect to protecting the QB.

    Studies have shown that Dan Henning's offenses statistically kept in the most amount of blockers per pass play. And the numbers kept in were significantly more than the next closest team.

    As telling as those stats were, I went to the actual game footage for further proof. I randomly picked a game from 2009 (via NFL rewind. they only go back as far as 2009) and picked random pass plays from this game to illustrate my point.
    I made a very similar post on 9 November 2012 regarding these videos. Here are some things that stood out at me.

    1) on many pass plays, it seems we use a TE and RB to double-team the opposing team's RDE, which essentially means Jake Long is blocking on the inside and NOT on an island by himself. Here are two examples of Long taking the inside while a RB or RB+TE are taking on the RDE.:
    [video=youtube;9IRgpU_teYY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IRgpU_teYY&feature=plcp[/video]

    [video=youtube;XoniTXGVqME]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoniTXGVqME&feature=plcp[/video]


    2) Extra blockers were left in to help Long out. Here is an example of Ronnie Brown left to help Jake if he gets beat to the outside

    [video=youtube;IE3n6ZqQU1Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE3n6ZqQU1Q&feature=plcp[/video]

    3) We did a lot of unbalanced lines those years. Here's a play where Carey is lined up as a TE on Jake's side, making him a an inside blocker and NOT on an island. He's actually blocking the NT (wilfork). See next post for video



    4) Here are two plays where Jake IS left on an island and does not perform/execute his task well. The first play much worse than the second.

    [video=youtube;oTr1OZd5VyI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTr1OZd5VyI&feature=plcp[/video]

    [video=youtube;jciAkQwqHRQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jciAkQwqHRQ&feature=plcp[/video]

    Basically, Brian Dabboll, Mike Sherman, and Joe Philbin run offenses that leave in a lot less blockers to assist in pass protection, especially to help their supposed ALL-PRO LT. Long faced much more 1 v 1 matchups vs. the opposing teams' RDEs. And as such he struggled, was noticed more for giving up more pressures and his status as an All-Pro was put in jeapordy. Not because of his injuries, or his adjustment to a new system, but because his job was simply put, easier when Dan Henning was coordinator.

    Maybe I sound like a broken record to some that have read me post this argument several times before. But I figured the videos could assist my line of thinking.

    I'm not saying Jake Long is bad, because he's not. He's good. Probably top 10-15. But he's not worth what St. Louis gave him, IMO. And probably not worth what we were willing to give him.

    For the record, I would've been semi-satisfied keeping him as it would've provided some nice draft flexibility and because as I just said, he's a good player and worlds better than Martin at this point. But this isn't a devastating loss, and not a key component that this team needed to make the next step. Jake Long, IMO, simply isn't the player that most think he is without Henning to protect him

    I think the Rams may have done us a(nother) favor
     
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  2. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    NJ
    The folliwng video corresponds to #3 of the above post.

    [video=youtube;0e0RZMY9ww8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e0RZMY9ww8&feature=plcp[/video]
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The fact that he took 60 mill from us for three good years, and bolted to st louis for extra mill a year tells me everything I need to know..he Can piss off, dead to me.

    Appreciate the work you put into your post, but it's not worth it for me to spend one more second on him.
     
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  4. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    He did a job, he got paid, he moved on. Any emotional attachment to a player makes no sense in todays NFL. You could just as easily flip the arguement that he was insulted that the team he played and gave his all for busted his stones over a million dollars. This especially stings when you look at the list of scrubs they paid in the years he was here.

    "Hometown Discount" can suck a dick IMO.
     
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  5. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Lots of good footage you have supplied, and I applaud that, but the footage I am NOT seeing is watching Jonthan Martin get beat like the trailer park Mrs married to the guy in the white tank top.

    When our sophmore QB is repeatedly trying to read defenses while lying flat on his stomach next season, let's revisit this shall we?
     
  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Opinions aside, he put up video and arguments. Kudos to that.
     
  7. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Did this happen to Tannehill last year after Martin took over? Was there that much of a dropoff? I haven't looked up the numbers. Hurries, knockdowns and sacks.
     
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  8. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think those are very good numbers to study indeed. No I haven't either. I honestly didn't see Martin play LT, but man, he was very very brutal at RT, and for the record, once again, I still think Martin was our best draft pick last year. He's just not nearly ready.
     
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    brutal is a good word, I haven't been a fan of his, nor before the draft, but I will say this, he looked to me to be more coordinated on the left..he still got his *** handed to him..

    I guess mr Stanford boy wasn't smart enough to know what strength meant for his position in the NFL..
     
  10. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    NJ
    Point was that Jake Long isn't this Elite LT that people think he is. Investing 9 Million per season in him would've been a bad waste of resources.

    There are other ways to replace Long without putting Martin there. Like draft one of the highly touted guys with our #12 pick and pay him 1/9th of what Long was making. Or Bryant McKinnie for about half of what Long was making with similar production. Etc.
     
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  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Mentioned Bryant the other day, he's in very good shape, and wants to play ball.
     
  12. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    NJ
    Basically when Martin was inserted at LT, Tannehill didn't get killed.

    Probably because Anthony Fasano appeared to be tied to Martin for assistance..................sound familiar???
     
  13. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    I think Martin had plays where he was completely out of his element. But just from my recollection, it at least looked like he belonged on an NFL field.

    The image I can't get out of my head regarding Long was when he was beat cold by Freeney for that sack/fumble. That play more than anything else cost us a winnable game.

    That game reminded me of the Colts game back in 1999 where we came in with similar records. We lost then and like last season, the two teams then went in opposite directions.
     
  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    that wasn't an injury that caused Long to get beat..
     
  15. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    My biggest worry is losing Long Fasano and Bush in he same year. Who picks up the slack from a Leadership standpoint? Richie? Pounce? RT?

    Ditto on defense without Dansby and Burnett. Starks is on a one year deal and everyone else is young. Talent wise we will be ok but I have concerns about who's gonna be here to hold the other guys accountable.

    I have a feeling that consistency will be an issue this season.
     
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  16. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    Pending we go with Martin at LT, it will make me mourn the loss of Fasano a little more.
     
  17. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I've been trying to quantify the impact of an elite OT on a team's passing game. These are just rough, back of the envelope numbers, but on a sample of 600 dropbacks (roughly league average), the elite OTs typically give up 1-3 sacks and 15-20 total pressures. The guys who are below average but not rock bottom, say 40% percentile, typically give up 6-8 sacks and 40-45 total pressures. So the difference between elite and below average (but not rock bottom) is somewhere around 4-6 sacks and 35-40 total pressures. That difference of roughly 5 sacks and 35 pressures certainly has an impact on the success of the passing game but it's hard to really put a value on it. Those 5 sacks are essentially -35 yards and the other 30 pressures will generally cause the QB to perform less efficiently. In Tannehill's case, at least based on his rookie numbers, that gap is actually pretty small. His passer rating when not under pressure was 78.6 and when under pressure it only dropped a little, to 68.6. If that holds true for the rest of Tannehill's career, the impact of those 30 extra pressures on his passing efficiency would be very limited -- maybe a point or 2 in passer rating. Of course, we don't know if that trend will hold true over Tannehill's career (it tends to fluctuate a fair amount from year to year for QBs). And we don't know if Martin will even be in that below-average-but-not-rock-bottom category. His LT numbers for last year, projected over 600 passing snaps, would be 6-7 sacks and 70 total pressures or so. Hopefully, he will improve on that significantly.


    The last 2 years Jake hasn't been in the elite category, he's been a little above average. IMO whether to match or not match what St. Louis offered was a tough call. I felt that $8M/yr would have been reasonable, $10M/yr too much and $8.5-9M/yr a very tough decision. I have pretty mixed feelings about what I'd do at OT now. A part fo me wants to sign someone proven, like Winston or Vollmer for (hopefully) like $5M per year. But another part of me says once we have accepted the downgrade from Jake to Martin (and yes, that is a downgrade IMO), we may as well go with the cheap option at RT, like Garner or Jerry. In 4 games at RT last year, Garner was really no worse than Martin. He had a rough game at NE, but was pretty good the other games. And John Jerry wasn't too bad at LT in 2011 and would probably be better at RT. Not sure if I'd really have the balls to do it, but I'm not sure going cheap at OT (Martin at LT and Jerry/Garner at RT) isn't the right way to go. With the money saved on Jake, we could probably get 2 good veteran CBs and then still have enough money left over in FA to get a very good pass rusher.
     
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  18. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    I don't recall if an injury was a factor but it wasn't the first time he was schooled by Freeney. Besides who could forget him getting pancaked by Abraham during the first game of 2009 and that was when he was in his so-called "hall of fame" form. A pro-bowl player he was but an Anthony Munoz or Tony Boselli he wasn't.
     
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  19. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Probably true, but the truth is every LT gets burned/schooled every once in a while. It happens to the best of 'em.
     
  20. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    If I'm taking a LT first overall, he would never be a contributing factor in us losing a game. In fact, he'd be a major factor in us winning. I never felt about Long the way I did Boselli. He was so good he almost won games for them. At least that's what many felt during that one cold playoff game vs Bruce Smith.
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    IMO Long hasn't been the same since he started having back and knee problems. He still has that big kick out but he can't react as quickly back to the inside. When he was beat last year they were whiffs, embarrassingly bad whiffs. It seems to me that he lost a certain amount of speed or agility. He is still strong and if he can keep his hands on you is good. I fear that back problems have a tendency to continue or return after a little bit of the season grind. I just don't think he's likely to ever be an elite LT again. I'm not even sure he'll be more than average over a full season.
     
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  22. Samphin

    Samphin Κακό σκυλί ψόφο δεν έχει

    If Tannehill isn't our leader on offense, the we have more problems than originally thought. In my opinion, he will have to step up and leave no doubt as to who is the voice, face and leader of the team, especially the offense. I also expect Hartline (and Bess if he is still here) to be the lieutenants as they have been here long enough to be credible.

    As for defense, the first name that stands out to me is Cameron Wake. By far our best player and a guy who works harder than anyone else. I wouldn't be the worst thing. For him to be more vocal on that side of the ball. I also look for Paul Soliai and hopefully Reshad Jones to be in the mix. I see big things for Reshad this year and becoming the vocal leader of the defensive backfield would be a perfect way to start.

    So essentially, I look for our team leaders to be the following:

    Ryan Tannehill
    Brian Hartline
    Cameron Wake
    Reshad Jones

    With help from Incognito, Soliai and possibly Bess.
     
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  23. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Jake Long has been over rated from day 1. Tight hips and slow feet.
    Long arms kept him afloat. He won't be missed.
     
  24. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    jake always had problems with speed guys...well good luck with bruce irvin and aldon smith....twice a year
     
  25. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Were a young team. leaders will develop and emerge.
     
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  26. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    i would have had no problem if he would have resigned, but i also have no problem that he is gone
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Tannehill is already a leader. I'm not worried about that...he basically is replacing Bush.
    Ellerbee should be replacing Dansby as a leader, because he was groomed by Lewis and has a ring.
    Pouncey should slip into the leadership role vacated by Long no problem
    And Jones will probably step up and become what we want as a leader in the defensive backfield.


    Wake is not a leader. He is an introvert. He'll lead by example but not on purpose.
     
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  28. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Of course, at the time you take him you don't know for sure what he'll be. Boselli gave up sacks too and not all were coverage sacks. I don't think Jake was as good as Boselli but he was looking pretty good his first few years.
     
  29. JMORGAN6977

    JMORGAN6977 New Member

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    Posted by dgb11112 March 2008:

    Jake Long:

    Strengths: An experienced, technically sound OT prospect with great size-potential. Is versatile; has experience at left and right tackle and could play either/both in the NFL. Also has proven capable of performing at a high level in power-run scheme and new zone-blocking scheme. Possesses excellent height, adequate bulk and the frame to get bigger if necessary. He has a massive wingspan with long arms and big hands. A natural knee-bender; he gets set quickly in pass pro, plays with good body lean and rarely gets caught lunging. He shuffles his feet quickly and can get back inside to defend double move. Uses long arms and powerful punch to jar defenders and run them wide as pass rushers. Shows excellent awareness in pass pro; consistently gives inside help and does an great job of picking up stunts, twists and blitzes. He takes very good angles as a run blocker. Has adapted very well zone-blocking and shows the mobility to execute in a similar scheme in the NFL. He has good upper-and-lower body strength as a run blocker. Also works hard to sustain and shows a good mean streak. Great intangibles. A leader and hard worker on-and-off the field. Good student in the classroom and intelligence carries over to the field, where he picks up techniques, schemes and assignments quickly.

    Weaknesses: Lacks elite mobility for an elite OT prospect. Has enough quickness and balance to perform at a high level in the NFL, but he is not as nimble as former top OT prospects such as Orlando Pace (Rams), Jonathan Ogden (Ravens), D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets) and Joe Thomas (Browns). Had some trouble versus Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston's elite speed rushers. Durability is somewhat of a concern after he missed the first seven games of the 2005 season with an ankle/foot injury.

    Overall: Long was redshirted in 2003. In his first active season at Michigan (2004), he appeared in 12 games, starting the last 10 at right tackle, and was selected to the Freshman All-America team. As a sophomore in 2005, played five games (four starts) at right tackle. He moved to left tackle in 2006, and went on to start all 26 of the Wolverines' games over his final two seasons. He was a first team All-America selection and the Big Ten Lineman of the Year in each of his last two seasons. Long missed the first seven games of 2005 while recovering from spring shoulder surgery and suffering from foot and ankle injuries. Long has outstanding experience to go along with his massive frame, above-average quickness for his size, a powerful upper body (37 reps), long arms (35.6 inches) and big hands (11 inches). He is not as athletic as last year's top tackle prospect Joe Thomas (Browns), but Long has more than enough range to effectively protect the quarterback's blindside in the NFL and he's bigger, stronger and more physical than Thomas was coming out of school. One year later, Long grades out slightly lower than Thomas (No. 3 overall in 2007) but he could actually come off the board earlier in what projects to be a weaker class.





    Posted ByMuck April 2008:

    The following was written by one of our own. I'm posting it here in lieu of our new front page, which will launch very soon. -Muck


    by Tim Nagle


    The top pick in 2008 will be.............Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long.

    The best lineman in the draft.

    I decided to go a different route with this report. Instead of giving a scouting report with an analysis that will bore people to death and impress no one, I decided to make this more about my opinion.

    Everyone has read some sort of report by now, so why print the same old yadda, yadda? I did research mainly on four players that may be Miami’s selection; Chris and Jake Long, Vernon Gholston and Matt Ryan. Miami will want to trade out of the top pick, but I doubt they will be able to. Taking Chris or Jake Long would be a good move, but one is better suited for Miami.

    The obvious scenario is to trade out of the pick to get more blocks to build a foundation of many needed players on a 1-15 team. The eye is to the future and there isn’t a need for this player selected to start and be polished from Day 1. There is time to groom him for the future.

    The top tier players in the 2008 draft will be drafted on how they fit the future and the scheme of the system being run. It is not as simple as the best player on the board being the selection in 2008. The most serious consideration is the team trying to fit a salary to a position. The team will have a model of what each position should budget per position and the prototype player for that position.

    Jake Long
    I sat down with my long time friend and scout for the Redskins, Joel Patten. I watched film and was carefully analyzing whether Jake would be an immediate upgrade to the Miami Dolphins offensive line. Money vs. position, this is the best and safest pick overall. Especially if the Dolphins do not trade down.

    I watched every game Jake played in for Michigan and feel very comfortable with this selection. He would anchor the offensive line, a unit in serious need of an upgrade, for years to come. Picking an offensive lineman is never a sexy pick, but building the foundation starts here. The champions of the NFL are built with solid lines. And this is a very solid start to that process.

    Run Blocking
    Jake Long is a solid run blocker and very physical at the point of attack. I noticed his first step is balanced with his weight centered and doesn’t lunge, making his huge frame a punishing obstacle that moves with good technique with each step taken. He will take his game to the opponent and is relentless. His ability to get to secondary blocks is a product of his aggressive play and motor. He finishes blocks very, very well and plays hard (with a mean streak) every down.

    I noticed that LB’s didn’t stand a chance when he got to them. LB’s are better athletes. And his long arm length gives him an advantage when run blocking to drive a better athlete. He proved that his assignment will be accomplished.

    Jake showed a significant amount of progress from his junior to senior year. His technique and footwork improved. He faced very good competition in college, which helps in the evaluation process.

    I talked with a few people close to Jake and his character is excellent, along with his study habits and commitment to football. He plays smart and doesn’t make many mistakes. In his 2007 games at left tackle, he registered 119 knockdown blocks and 15 TD-resulting blocks. He also ran a stretch of 1,700+ plays with only one penalty.

    Pass Blocking (Concern)
    Jakes pass blocking skills show slow footwork. What this means is there are more natural athletes that move a little more fluid than Jake, where he relies more on his arm strength and balance. He seems to lean back upon his heels too much on almost every passing down. Almost selling the fact that he is going to be pass blocking when faced against much quicker opponents.

    This is a flaw. He would struggle in the NFL as a rookie at left tackle against speed rushers, but can improve and this is something he can work on.

    He locks up the inside and is open outside without getting his shoulder over his hip on the turn and compensates by pushing the player past the pocket. He has warning signs of leaning, average footwork and hip turn with poor balance. He is nearly impossible to beat inside.

    Jake is a student of the game and plays aggressive. All players need coaching and he is no different. I disagree that he cannot be a left tackle. He could start at right tackle and move to left at a later point. He is capable of being a dominating right tackle and a very, very good left tackle.

    He is an upgrade over Vernon Carey and will solidify the offensive line for years to come and open holes for a great running game.

    ---

    Tim Nagle is a former NFL scout and Premium member of ThePhins.com.



    Just a couple of older references that told the story before the book was opened. Some times you just take a shot and hope your evaluation is correct. Sometimes the proof is in the pudding....
     
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  30. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know why anyone who has paid attention the last 3 years would be upset with Long moving on. This is the 2nd best move/non move we made all offseason, behind the Wallace signing. My dads a Steelers fan so I've followed the Wallace thing the last 2 years. Hoping Miami could get him but it wasn't until the Brown signing I actually realized we had a shot. We did exactly what I wanted. Replace longs contract with Wallace, a guy who actually makes a difference on offense. I don't even care that we overpaid cause we ve been overpaying a guy the last 3 years who didn't make much if any of a difference in regards to how many points we scored.
     
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  31. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    If anything I'd say sign the BPA at the lowest price available. Martin/Garner or Martin/Jerry isn't that bad. If it's a choice between Osi Umenyiora at 4-5m versus a decent right tackle well then your decision is obvious.

    Tell you what if you can sign Volmer and then Osi Umenyiora together that's a major upgrade. You're basically telling Tom Brady, ya I just took your RT that protected you from Wake and now I've got a guy that can give Solder trouble on third down.
     
  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I believe you were correct on his market price and what you valued him at..I would of caved and gave him what the chiefs gave him but obviously we put a limit on the player, we'll see how it plays out.
     
  33. cdz12250

    cdz12250 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Long has the exact problems that the 2008 draft analysts said he was going to have upon transitioning to the NFL. No surprises there. He has weaknesses in pass protection that prevent him from being a truly elite LT, plus the injuries. No reason to pay him like a truly elite left tackle. Ireland was right to offer him very good, but not elite money, and let him walk when he got an offer of elite money from someone else.

    Next case.
     
  34. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    For all the talk about how Chris Long was overrated years later I would love to have him as this team's power defensive end where Odrick is right now.
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    On why does he think Jake went to the rams, Ireland replied, " you would have to ask Jake, we made him a competitive offer"

    Dude wanted out..and man was it obvious.
     
  36. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Jon Martin, you gonna have to step up.
     
  37. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    CK just put it up in another thread, that he actually played worse at LT. Not much worse, but slightly. If he does start, we'll see. He'll have time to actually practice and play on the left.
     
  38. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just realized #1 and 2, both Longs, are now on the Rams. Lol. Are they going to practice against each other? Does CL line up on the left or right?
     
  39. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    I'd mention this once in a while, but now is more appropriate than ever.....
    I have some friends from that Michigan team, they say Jake was the biggest baby.
    He'd have just a few drinks and get all mushy. Would start crying and ask everyone " DO YOU LIKE ME ? " :cry:

    If only we could have tagged him and traded him for Robert Quinn.
     
  40. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    May 3, 2010
    Jakes having issues with his arms and shoulders for a reason. He does have a huge kick back first step. of which is sometimes before the ball is snapped :) He will not get away with that any longer. Carroll and Harbaugh will jump all over the Refs backs. But, his hips are stiff and his footwork is not the greatest.

    Jake has been getting by on two things mostly.
    1 his athletic ability
    2 his size and the length of his arms.

    Number 2 is his problem. Due to less mobility now and slow hips he is using his long arms in attempt to stop the speed rushers. Most will say thats good but his body is now showing the affects of just using his arms. First the back issue, then he tore his bicep, then he tore up his shoulder, last year he tore his tricep. These are all injuries that ust pile up on each other and most of them all started, with probably the wrong technique. I had heard the team wanted him to change some things up last year but he didn't.

    The result, turn triceps. I do not wish anything on any player but I seriously doubt Jake is going to play much better then what we have seen him play the last two years. Will admit though Bradford has a cannon for an arm and gets rid of the football. He hasn't been able to do that too much because they have had no real big number one receivers and because the Oline suked. If they can get some receivers and Bradford can get rid of the ball its going to make Jake look like a top NFL tackle again. Those are all big ifs.

    We will replace him and if you look around the league there are many playoff teams that had LTs that were not as all hallowed as Jake.
     
    MrClean likes this.

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