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Jarvis Landry (Q1)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Oct 1, 2014.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    While he looked awesome at times in the preseason, Jarvis Landry has been a bit underwhelming so far this season, whether it's his two fumbles on punts or his uncharacteristic drops. However, it seems like he is starting to come on, getting more and more involved in every game. He's already taken over the team's #3 WR, now getting more snaps than both Brandon Gibson and Rishard Matthews. In a year that is primed to be a huge year for rookie WRs, this is a good time to look and see how he is doing compared to his classmates four weeks into the season.

    First, the two headliners have got to be Kelvin Benjamin and Alex Hurns so far. Benjamin is a front runner for OROY with 329 yards and 17 first downs, way more than anyone else in the class. Hurns is the Cinderella story of the year so far, coming out of nowhere as a UDFA for the second most yards (254), and a whopping 21.2 yard average (#2 in NFL) on 12 receptions. Each have 3 TDs. But how about everyone else? There are six other rookie WRs with 100+ yards and 10+ catches (rec/tgt yards): Mike Evans (17/28 203), Brandin Cooks (23/30 199), Sammy Watkins (17/32 197), Allen Robinson (17/26 192), Jordan Matthews (15/25 141), and our very own Jarvis Landry (12/18 111). So let's see how he compares to his peers.

    The positive is that Jarvis has done this with only 18 targets, whereas everybody else above him received 24-36 targets. (Yes, Benjamin has been targeted 36 times!) In fact, Jarvis has caught 66% of balls thrown his way, second only to Cooks' 76%. (Hurns has caught a poor 50% and Watkins 53%.) Also, I'd guess he's near the top of blocking prowess according to the eyeball test, but if anybody can share the PFF blocking grades for this group that would be interesting. His first down (7) rate and his average ypc (9.3) are in the lower middle of the pack. (The worst first down conversion rate would prob be Robinson's seven in 17/26. The worst average ypc is Cooks' 8.7.) His two drops look bad, but it's such a small sample size as they all have 1-3 drops (except for Robinson's and Cooks' zeroes) that I'm not concerned yet. Where he needs work is scoring touchdowns, as he and Robinson are the only ones in the group without one.

    Where he really shines as a WR is his YAC, which is pretty surprising considering the preseason chatter was that he is slow and couldn't get away from defenders. I'm somewhat shocked that 51% of his yards are coming after the catch! (The next closest is Cooks' 40%.) (Sammy Watkins, for all his hooplah, is only seeing 27% of his yards as YAC.) Jarvis has 57 YAC, which is only surpassed by Hurns (90) and Cooks (80). Considering his 12 targets, he's averaging 4.75 YAC on each reception, second only to Hurns' outstanding 7.5. The next closest is again Cooks (3.5). Surprisingly, the big bodies have poor tackle breaking ability in their YAC : Benjamin (29) (wow that's only 8% of his yards!), Evans (33), and Matthews (36). (An important note, I'm using the most modest number of 57 yards from ESPN, but footballdb.com cites 88 YAC and sportingcharts.com says 90 YAC, which makes it even more impressive. It's a convoluted stat to track, but if you accept those numbers he's arguably the most expert YAC rookie WR so far this year.)

    Also, it should be noted that (stats from weeks 1-3) Jarvis' 105 offensive snaps were lower than everybody else's 137-174 snaps (not sure if that's a good or bad thing). On the flip side, he had 38 ST snaps, whereas the other seven had 9 combined ST snaps (and Cooks had 8 of them). While he may not be returning punts much longer, Jarvis actually leads the entire NFL in KO return yards (287) and is #4 in KO return average (28.7). He leads ALL rookies by a mile with 449 All Purpose Yards (Solomon Patton has 359 and Benjamin has 329), and he is averaging 14.5 yards every time he touches the ball, which also leads ALL rookies (#5 in the NFL).

    Where I expect him to improve the most is on third down, once he is more acclimated into the pros. Jarvis was the best WR in the NCAA last year on third down, period: He led the NCAA with 6 TDs on third down; he led all WRs with 28 third down receptions, and 26 of those 28 reception resulted in first downs; his 6 receptions of 25+ yards was #1, and his 15 receptions of 15+ yards was #2. (I can't find the stats for third down yards, but I think he was #1 there as well.)

    Ultimately, looking at the stats made me feel better about his performance to date, as he seems to be in that second tier (or on the cusp) of quality rookie WRs, most of whom are first rounders who have no depth in front of them. However, if you include ST's contributions he may be the only other one that could make the argument to be in the conversation of belonging in that first tier of impactful rookie WRs. As he gets more comfortable in this system, and with Tannehill (as Tannehill also becomes comfortable in the system), I fully expect him to continue to improve as he becomes a more integral part of the offense. Yes, there are still holes in his game and youthful mistakes, but so far the early returns are promising.
     
  2. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think hes been great. Hes a rookie..so your gonna have the mistakes but one thing he has a nose for is getting an extra yard. Hes not gonna wow anyone like a Calvin Johnson...buts hes tough..plays hard...and fights...giving 100 percent on the field. One thing he is not..is a Diva. I think he will have a careeer similar to OJ McDuffie. We wont see him tripping over painted lines
     
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  3. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Club Member

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    He's been solid. So far, we've had some good return on the pick. All of these guys except Hurns (who's bulk of his production came in week 1 and IMO was more of an anomaly than something I would feel comfortable projecting moving forward) were drafted much higher than Landry (4 of them 1st rounders and Matthews a high 2nd).
     
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  4. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think what I like about Landry the most isnt anything youll see on the stat sheet. Love his ferocity..and his crazy work ethic. Hes just a great football player..maybe he wont be annual pro bowler..but hes a guy you love having on your team.
     
  5. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I love how he seems to go north-south immediately and decisively, almost like he is taking three steps to everyone else's two.
     
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  6. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I know some on here arent real high on him..because they feel like you could have gotten same value and productivity later on in the draft..but Ill keep going back to the stuff you cant measure. Cant wait to see him when he really becomes part of the offense...if all he does is move the sticks..just wait until we are needing a huge first down in a playoff game..and he drags three players with him for the 1st. He plays the receiver position like Knowshon plays running back..just love the effort

    Without a doubt..gonna get a Landry jersey before long
     
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  7. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not sure you can say he's a great football player.

    He's had a big mistake in every game that we've played so far. Typically, rookie or not, those mistakes cost you playing time...along with team wins.

    He has the ability to make plays, get some YAC. However, the buzz around him was that he "catches EVERYTHING". He hasn't done that yet. For me, if he's going to be a future 3rd down target he needs to at least catch MOSTLY EVERYTHING. That was the great thing about Bess, McDuffie & Gadsden when they were here. It's what you like about Hartline - most of the time.

    I'm just reserving my judgement on the guy. I want him to have a mistake free game first before I go talking about how great of a player he is. Also, his blocking isn't exactly mind-blowing either. So, he may have a great work ethic, but when it comes to simple things like catching a punt, catching a pass, holding onto the football, making a block, that work ethic isn't coming into play.

    I'm not down on the guy. I just don't believe he's a great player. I think in the end, he'll be a good player, but he needs to work at it.
     
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  8. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    When I say great football player..Im not saying in the same sense you are...great in heart and drive and passion for the game. When have you seen him in the short time not going 110 percent every time...

    Its like a Jim Jensen...maybe hes not great in the sense his numbers will pop off the stat page..but hes gonna be huge when your trailing..need a spark..and he wrecks someone in a block like he did for Knowshons score against the Pats.

    As far as playing time..hes getting 3rd most WR targets last two games...
     
  9. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I also think he and Wallace are rubbing off on each other..watch the next time on the sidelines and see whos sitting next to each other talkin it up..Wallace is def playing amazing...
     
  10. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think those "mistakes" are mostly related to punt returns, but I'm inclined to cut him a little slack as he only had three punt returns total in his college career. It's not something he has experience with. Same with kickoffs, he only returned 5 of them at LSU, but is already turning into one of the NFL's best.

    As for "catching everything", he has the second best % of catching passes targeting him of that group of rookie WRs, and the only only one better than he has Drew Brees throwing the football, who is the most accurate passer in football. Four of Jarvis' incompletions came in the KC game where all anyone could talk about for a week was how inaccurate Tannehill was. This week he went 4/4. I have no worries about his hands; that's one area where I believe the proof truly is in his college tape.

    But I understand your hesitations, and I'm probably just a little more hopeful.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That's a very misleading statistic for a wide receiver. There are three variables that take precedence over wide receiver skill when it comes to being statistical predictors of that percentage. They are:

    1. Depth of pass target
    2. Slot versus perimeter
    3. Quarterback accuracy

    For example, the average Jarvis Landry catch happens approximately 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Of course he's going to have a higher catch rate.
     
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  12. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also, he only had three fumbles total in college, so it's not like he's prone to them. Perhaps there something he needs to learn about fielding punts, or needs more experience, or it's just not a skill he has and they will replace him in that capacity.
     
  13. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    I'll always compare Jarvis Landry's career with Allen Robinson's, right or wrong. While we had a shot at Cooks and Benjamin, I understand why we passed on them. There was no good excuse for passing on Robinson, if we were in the market for a WR. And obviously we were, taking Landry a few picks later.

    To date...

    Robinson: 3 games: 17 catches (26 targets), 192 yards, 11.3 YPC.
    Landry: 4 games: 12 (18 targets), 111 yards, 9.3 YPC.

    And Robinson missed all of pre-season too, with a hamstring injury. Frustrating that we passed on him to trade down... for Author Lynch. I can't imagine he even makes the roster next season. Hell, I didn't think he'd make it this season.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I loved Allen Robinson a whole lot.
     
  15. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I liked Robinson too; I actually kept flip flopping Robinson and Landry in my draft order and I'm still not sure how I feel.

    I can understand why Philbin would go the Landry route though. The slot reciever is an integral part of this offense, and going into this offseason we didn't have one. We had Brandon Gibson who tore his ACL (and doesn't look quite the same yet), and a Rishard Matthews that was in the dog house amidst rumors of being cut. Plus, both players had just come off their first years ever playing the position after Philbin transitioned them inside after letting Bess go. We needed an interior reciever and he grabbed the best one in the draft. It does make me wonder if this offense has any intentions of getting a big body WR, or a big body TE, or are we content just throwing lucky fades in the corner of the endzone.

    Also, I would hope Robinson is putting up bigger numbers because he has to be the WR1 in an offense that is playing from behind every week. Likewise, if we didn't have Wallace or Hartline, I'd hope Jarvis would be doing the same.

    Still, it's an excellent barometer, and so far the numbers are pretty similar, especially the zero TDs.
     
  16. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    I've not been impressed at all.
     
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  17. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think Jarvis Landry has looked pretty good, but it's hard to tell the full extent of what you have. Pretty much all of our receiving weapons are being under-utilized besides Mike Wallace. It seems pretty safe that Landry will be at least a solid role player, but you've still got the question if you're getting the potential upside you should be striving for with that high a pick.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Just going by receiving prowess alone without considering the return game, I would say that Jarvis Landry's production has been about 11th out of 21 rookies.

    He's been better than Davante Adams, Marqise Lee, Ryan Grant, Jaron Brown, Devin Street, Paul Richardson, Bruce Ellington, Robert Herron, Corey Washington and Jalen Saunders.

    However, Allen Hurns, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, John Brown, Donte Moncrief, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson have all been more efficient and productive.

    Once you add in the return game, I'm honestly not sure whether to move that up or down. He's averaging 28.7 yards per kick return which is actually good, however his 6.0 yards per punt return have been poor and when you add in his two fumbles on returns and his catching that one punt at like the 1 yard line, really he's been an abysmal punt returner.
     
  19. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    I agree with 100% of this..but you gotta toss the guys that got drafted ahead of him.

    I however think that Landry's kick return career should be over. He can cost us a close game. I want consistency back there and a guy that catches the ball...everytime.
     
  20. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    As others noted, it's his ability to catch the football and then immediately get upfield in one fluid motion that is so impressive to me about Landry. However, what is far less impressive have been the DROPS, which have come on what should have been pretty easy receptions for a man who supposedly has great hands.
     
  21. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Personally , as he becomes more and more acclimated to the offense, I think we will see those numbers improve for Landry, not regress, and I think that is the key thing to look for over the rest of the season. Nat Moore loves the guy....so who am I to argue lol.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If he presents no return value then thus far he's just a mediocre to sub-mediocre receiver. I'm not so sure you toss out the guys drafted above him because the question shouldn't be "which wide receiver should you have drafted at that pick". There were options at other positions and so you only draft that guy if you think he's a good football player, not because he's the best of whatever's left at that position.

    If you insist though, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews were the guys off the board by the time Miami could have drafted at pick #50.
     
  23. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Does it? Or is that a hypothetical? That may shed some light on what his true YAC truly is. It's so confusing seeing different numbers on every website. (Do you have a definite source for YAC?)

    It may also shed some light on the rumors that they were also highly interested in Marqise Lee during the draft.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    On a league-wide basis I have him about 90th down the WRs list in terms of production and efficiency.

    That translates to a very low-end 3rd wide receiver.

    It's only been four games, granted.
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I feel like PFF is a definitive source of info for statistics like this.

    But yes his "air yards" per catch is only about 2.2 yards which means everything he's catching is right at or just beyond the line of scrimmage. And yes that does increase his YAC average. I don't know anything about the Dolphins and Marqise Lee, though.
     
  26. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I cant see how you take him off Kick Returns...because , and I dont have the numbers to back this up, but it seems like on Kick Offs he consistently gives us better then average starting field position. Even starting 10 yards further down field on average can be huge. Punt returns, I dont know...I dont really know enough about the position to know if it takes a different type of returner in Punts rather then Kickoffs.

    On Kickoffs....I havent seen any indication he would fumble...or make a bad decision.
     
  27. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ok..but can you really say where he will be at season end? 4 games seems like a very small sample size to draw that conclusion....but then again, I like the guy, so Im not being 100 percent objective either.
     
  28. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Watching the games, the throws that are behind the line of scrimmage tend to not work. I wish they would stop throwing wide receiver screens to him. He isn't getting much YAC from those throws.

    His YAC throws seem to come from shorter passes of 6 yards or more. Generally speaking he is wide open. I don't watch coaching tape, so I do not know if that is because he ran an excellent route or made a great judgement. Or the scheme made it so he was wide open or a defensive mistake.

    I am on the less than impressed boat.

    However, Gibson has been even less impressive.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think you take him off both.

    His skill set should make him a better punt returner than kick returner. I think you pay more attention to skill set than a temporary blip in the numbers off a small sample size.

    The fact he's doing well as a kick returner right now does not mean he'll continue to do well, and it may even point to Miami missing opportunities because they actually have good blocking on kick returns but don't have a return man who can capitalize on that. We just saw him against Kansas City get a crease and run for what SHOULD have been a touchdown, but in the end wasn't a touchdown because he has 4.65 speed. If that had been a faster guy, that would have been housed. If Miami's got the kick return blocking to make a guy that doesn't have a compelling kick return skill set into a good returnter, imagine what they could be doing if you stuck someone with an excellent size/speed ratio (traditional kick return traits) back there.

    Jarvis Landry does have a potentially interesting skill set as a punt returner because he is reputed to be smart and savvy, and also supposedly has great hands. His 0 to 30 mph is also pretty decent. These are the traits you look for in a punt returner, as opposed to kick returns when you steer more toward pure size/speed ratios. However the guy is a rookie, and he hasn't done returns since high school, and right now his being new and potentially nervous is not allowing his inherent traits to shine. The resulting mistakes are costing the Dolphins. Therefore, I'd keep practicing him at the punt return duties, but I'd have someone more experienced handling them so that he's not costing the team with his young mistakes.
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Guys lining up in the slot and running short routes as he does will tend to be open due to defensive scheme. The defense gives that up, to a degree. He's averaging only 9 yards per catch.

    I completely agree with you on his RAC skill set. He's not good in a screen situation and is better on the move. However, a lot of receivers are exactly like that and so the question comes down to whether he's showing you anything compelling relative to the crowd and I don't think he is. Pre-draft, I frequently questioned whether he ever would.

    My personal opinion is the Dolphins drafted a guy in the 2nd round whose ceiling is more Davone Bess than Doug Baldwin or Donald Driver.
     
  31. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    It's just too early. Our offense in general didnt look good in most our games. I don't expect Landry to shine when clay and hartline are barely doing anything either.
     
  32. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    This is kind of bouncing off the Jarvis Landry talk:

    For those of you who spend alot of time projecting players for the draft...or doing football analysis more in depth then say the average person....

    Do you ever become a "fan" of certain players? In this case, I really like Jarvis Landry. But I also know Im looking at him through fans eyes. For Guys like CK, Sec..DJ...and any other who really project players....do you find yourself being more critical on guys you werent necessarily big on coming out. Or...lets say you dont feel we needed a WR in round 2...should have gone somewhere else...does that affect on how you see that player from a fan perspective.

    I ask this because as Ive become more and more involved with the discussion and learning more on what to look for in a player, I find myself becoming less of a fan, so to say. In some ways..Im not sure I like that. I like having a favorite player I root for..just because. Do you all find you loose that ability at some point?
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You become a fan of guys who excite you when you watch the tape. But that only lasts about as long as the player performs. The less he excites you on tape as you go down the road, the more you tend to forget about him. Similarly, you can end up hating guys who continually show you bad things on tape all the time, but then when that guy starts being really impressive on tape suddenly you're a fan of his. That happens to me all the time.

    There are guys that many here on these boards would think of as being among my favorites that if you go back through the timeline you may be surprised to see that I actually disliked that player at one point quite a bit. Similarly there are guys that most people would accuse me of being a "hater" toward or some such, that if you looked back through the timeline you would be surprised to find at one point I actually liked quite a bit.

    The reason for that is simple. These guys are not two or even three dimensional. They develop. Sometimes they develop really well, and sometimes they develop poorly. Sometimes when you change a certain environmental constraint (e.g. the speed of the game), the thing you used to love best about the guy becomes the thing you now hate the most about him. It happens.
     
  34. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Club Member

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    I assume you mean his punt return career? He's been one of the leagues best on kick returns this season...
     
  35. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Club Member

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    I don't think you take him of kick returns until he gives you a reason to... not based on a projected decrease in production based on a perceived skill set that may or may not be true. Punt returns? Fine. But as long as he's top 5 in KR... you leave him there. If the concept is that someone could be doing even better than him b/c the blocking is THAT good, that means that we have one of, if not the best blocking KR teams in the league. I don't find the odds of that to be likely...
     
  36. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    He's been okay....certainly nowhere near rookie of the year status like some people on here predicted lol.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    We're talking about TEN kickoff returns, with his average being moved from 23.6 yards per return to 28.7 yards per return by virtue of one kick return where you'd actually be tempted to give him a negative grade because he got caught from behind whereas he should've broken the thing for a touchdown.

    So no, I don't think anything I said implied that Miami has the best kick return blocking in football. I pointed out the issues related to small sample size.
     
  38. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Do you ever miss just liking a player without breaking them down on tape?
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Nope.
     
  40. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ck on that Kick Off return...

    If I remember correctly..he was caught from behind by one player. Do you know if that player wasnt just exceptionally fast? I cant remember who it was, or I would look it up myself
     

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