JMO: How to Build This Team for Super Bowl Contention

How so? How are you measuring efficiency? I would think yds per target would be most ideal for WRs.

 

Talent is a predictor of future TDs. I currently and have over the past liked Brian Hartline enough to feel some bit of vindication based on how he's playing and how everyone is coming over to my side of things, but the fact of the matter is the guy serially refuses to show the physical impressiveness and explosive play that consistently scores touchdowns. He'll score them if he's got an elite QB throwing the ball at him, sort of like the touchdown you saw Greg Jennings score yesterday off the scramble by Aaron Rodgers. Hartline can do that all day (although it's important to note he had a chance to make a play almost exactly like that against the Jets and he dropped it).

But I mean fact of the matter is when you're a deep threat that doesn't have speed, you're putting a lot of pressure on your QB to get the ball to you perfectly with a low trajectory at 40+ yards through the air, otherwise you'll find defenders always getting their head into the mix on recovery. When you have no significant ups or explosiveness, the fade in the end zone is out of the picture. When you don't have physical strength, and the ability to approach the ball with strong hands, back shoulders are less likely to work. When you don't have that physical strength or explosiveness you're also less likely to run into the end zone after the catch.

These are real problems that you can see easily if you watch the tape on Brian Hartline, and they explain why he has trouble getting into the end zone, or at the very least creating anything on his own in the end zone that the quarterback doesn't hand him on a silver platter (which is harder than people think).

 

When I kept calling for James Jones to be traded for even if it took a 3rd round pick, or slightly more, this is what I had in mind. James Jones has the explosiveness and strength that consistently produces touchdowns. He would really have rounded out this receivers unit. But I seem to remember most people around here thought it would be a travesty to pay as much as a 3rd round pick for him. He's got three times the number of touchdowns as our entire WRs unit combined, and that's with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense struggling.

 

YAC is a big factor. Separating from defenders after the catch will prevent him from ever being elite. Don't get it twisted, he's an excellent complimentary receiver and a legit #2/#3 WR. I don't think anyone would argue that. But there's a reason he only has 1 TD, that came on a blown coverage.

To suggest that his output yesterday proves that the Dolphins are set at WR couldn't be further from the truth. IMO, it shows how much the Dolphins NEED more talent at WR.

 

Then how does he average such a high number of yards/target, without any YAC ability?

 

You've watched the games, yes? How man times has Tannehill thrown to him deep?

Again, I don't wanna come off like I'm knocking Hartline. He's shown the ability to get deep. Unfortunately, he has not shown the ability to separate after the catch.

 

The amount of times he's been thrown to is reflected in his yds/target. Thats what makes it a measure of efficiency. He's not a guy that has had an inordinate number of balls thrown to him which has resulted in high volume.

My point here is that saying he hasn't shown a certain ability is entirely subjective, and something that everyone may not agree with. Which is why the objective data is so valuable.

 

Because he can create separation and use his body control to catch the football. But that still puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the QB to be perfect on the throws if you want to create big plays. Heading into yesterday's game, he was averaging 1.3 yards after catch per reception. And in 2011, that was 2.7 yards after catch per reception. Both are terrible numbers.

His number this year is about to get a big boost from yesterday's game mainly because of that 80 yard play off the busted coverage, but if you excluded that play the number is probably still going to be pretty low.

 

Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, and Steve Smith have also combined for a grand total of ONE TD this year. Clearly, those guys all need to be replaced.

As I said, the lack of receiving TDs is a QB issue, not a WR issue right now. It is hard for a rookie QB to be effective on the condensed field of the red zone. Tannehill will get better at it, but there will be growing pains. And even with the great QB, a great receiver won't necessarily score a lot of TDs, especially in a relatively small 4 game sample. CJ, Welker, SSmith, BMarshall, RWayne, Colston, DJackson, JNelson and DBryant all have one or fewer TDs this year.

 

You just made a statement without factoring in sample size and proceeded to make a statement about sample size.

Brian Hartline has 6 career TD's. How many do those other guys have?

And I don't by your argument about it being a QB issue. Maybe in some instances, but not this one. Tannehill's YPA would suggest some TD's are being left on the field. Either he's just extremely unlucky, or his WR's aren't helping him out.

 

Regression to the mean. I have a feeling his YPT will come back down to his career average.

 

I responded to your statement about how many TDs Hartline and Bess have in 4 games by pointing out how many CJ, Welker and Smith have in exactly the same number of games.

YPA and TDs don't correlate. The fact that a QB has a high YPA doesn't mean he will have a lot of TD passes. TD passes are a function of playcalling, number of trips inside the red zone, running effectiveness, and ability to find the open guy on a crowded, short field.

 

Sure, it very well could. I mean he averaged ~8.5 YPT with Chad Henne and Matt Moore as his QBs, which is pretty good. We'll probably see some regression, but I think he'll be near the top of the league by the end of the year.

 

It's a trend. Neither Bess nor Hartline have been able to consistently produce TD's in their careers. As I said, Hartline has 6 in 3 1/4 seasons, and Bess has 11 in 4 1/4 seasons. So the fact that they have 1 TD in 4 games combined shouldn't be a surprise.

Typically, QB's with high YPA's also have a significant number of TD's thrown. High YPA's are the result of explosive plays, which often go for TD's. Obviously there are other factors at play, as you said, but I'd be interested to see if you can find a season where a QB had a lot of TD's and a low YPA, or the converse, for that matter.

 

Here's another stat you guys might find interesting: Yards per Route Run.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/09/three-years-of-yards-per-route-run-wide-receivers/

(Don't look at the bottom 10 Don't look at the bot-- you looked, didn't you? I told you not to)

I think this is a pretty solid metric.

 

Isn't in nice to have hope, for the first time in your life that we are building the foundation of this team to contend for deep playoff runs? You guys (younger gen) have stuck with it for so long and pretty soon it will all pay off for this fan base...

 

The common thread is that Bess and Hartline have also played their entire careers with young and/or subpar QBs on largely run-oriented teams.

Yes, there are examples of QBs that had a lot of TDs and a low YPA:

Matt Ryan (2010) -- 28 TDs, 6.5 YPA
Brett Favre (1994) -- 33 TDs, 6.7 YPA
Drew Brees (2007) -- 28 TDs, 6.8 YPA
Tom Brady (2002) -- 28 TDs, 6.3 YPA

 

And those are the ONLY aspirations we should be focusing on. Homefield advantage with a bye and the chance to legitimately compete. We are going on 20 years since this team was in a freaking AFC Championship game!

 

Are you seeing anything of note with Randall?

 

OK. I don't think Chris Clemons has played badly. Sure, there have been some breakdowns, etc. but that happens to even the good ones. And I think Reshad Jones has played very well. I don't have a problem with adding players at WR or edge rusher, but I don't see them as nearly as urgent as some around here make them out to be. We have a pretty good team. I am not surprised by that. While I like what I have seen from Tannehill, we can't expect him to be a SB QB for a while, as that typically takes time.

 

When BMarsh produced last year like Hartline is producing this year, he was the second coming and greatest receiver ever. Oh wait, BMarsh did it with a young QB after missing most of the offseason with a brand new offense, no way Hartline competes with that.......

 

I believe he's first in plays over twenty yards as a receiver...It totally goes against what were seeing, is there a case to be made that his intelligence and craftiness are getting him as open as other players with more explosiveness and elusiveness?

 

I hope this isn't a comparison between BMarsh and Hartline.

 

Favre is kind of an anomaly. He's the only one I could find who threw at least 30 TD's with a YPA I'd consider low. Then again, his YPA for his career wasn't that great. My guess is the offense Green Bay ran may have had something to do with it.

To your first point, we'll see. I don't discount that theory entirely mainly because we saw what Wes Welker did when he went to New England. He has something like 30 TD's since he's been there.

 

Yes absolutely. I said it when he was drafted this looks like a surprisingly good find in the 7th round much like Rishard Matthews. The team is going to be happy it drafted Kheeston Randall, IMO.

Not high impact, certainly not right away, because he's stuck behind other guys. But let me put it this way we've sat by and watched them draft guys like Frank Kearse and Lionel Dotson with late picks...and Kearse looks like he'll bounce around the league a few years, but I think Randall is a lot better than those guys and it's showing. Paul Soliai didn't look this good in the regular season as a rookie, but then Soliai was a uniquely talented-but-raw guy and that's not the kind of player Randall is.

 

One theory I had initially was that teams weren't using their #1 on him. IINM, Patrick Peterson only covered him for a few plays. I believer Toller got the majority of plays lined up against him. If you're gonna put your second best corner on him, Hartline IS good enough to beat that man in one-on-one most of the time. The exception being when Cromartie covered him and Hartline was shut out against him. If you recall, Hartline's 40 yard catch came when Kyle Wilson was covering him after Revis went down with injury.

There's no question Hartline is a smart player, and I hope people realize that he doesn't need to be replaced, just that he needs to be the #2, not #1 IMO.

 

Hartline is nowhere near Marshall in terms of berating and demoralizing teammates.

 

I've been calculating this from their data for years.

It's about time they caught on and started calculating it themselves.

 

They said 88 players qualified. I didn't see the entire list posted. I'd be interested to see the whole thing.

 

he's tied for 5th place with 5 other receivers with 6 20 yard plays

 

How does Hartline compare to a Wes Welker?

 

Two totally different players IMO.

 

Then it's first in plays over forty.

 

Can he develop an ability to catch balls in the middle of the field? I've seen some amazing athletic movement by Hartline with both his ability to catch and to tiptoe inbounds. Is it purely a physical thing? Welker doesn't look much bigger or faster than Hartline.

 

Agreed. It's an awesome start for BH, but there's no way in Hell this is sustainable. Someone can correct me, but as I said earlier I don't think he's even seeing the other teams #1 CB. I know Revis didn't cover him, nor Peterson for most of the game. Cromartie shut him out. Teams will make adjustments on him. Does anyone honestly believe he's good enough to still produce like this with a #1 covering him the whole game?

 

I love how all the Hartline comparisons are usually to Caucasian WRs.

 

Hartline can play any of the WR positions, so it would be very difficult for a team to put a particular CB on him.