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Josh Rosen Isn't the Future

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Aug 31, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The writing is on the wall folks.

    When you start Fitzpatrick and make major personnel moves that make the team worse in the short run so it can be better in the long run, you can't possibly think Josh Rosen is your quarterback of the future. If he were your quarterback of the future, there would be far more of a win-now mentality, and players like Laremy Tunsil wouldn't be traded.

    Based on the moves its making, I think the team has seen enough of him to know it has to look elsewhere.
     
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  2. freeperjim

    freeperjim New Member

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    I emphatically disagree.
    Rosen should be seen as a rookie - still learning to read defenses for the first time in his career.
    His physical and intellectual tools are unquestionable at the elite level and why he was a Top-10 draft.
    Rosen has stated Fitzy is the best mentor he's ever had in football.
    Logically, with those draft choices, the Dolphins cam begin building around Rosen.
    It's not rocket science...
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How can you possibly think a quarterback you have on the roster is who you're going to go with long-term, and then not start him and trade the very high-quality left tackle who would protect his blind side for the next 10 years?

    The draft choices will be used, if need be, to trade up and get a quarterback at the top of the first round.
     
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  4. dolfan40

    dolfan40 Well-Known Member

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    We can build around him for 2020 Season, if it doesn't pan out we draft Martin Lawrence
     
  5. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You’re also assuming that Tunsil resigns with the Dolphins. The next 10 years is a streach in today’s nfl.
     
  6. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    All of this. I think they made up their mind on him already, he will have to absolutely blow up (think, at least Pro Bowl quality) in order to even remotely considering passing on QB in 2020. IMO they made the move with backing up or future trade value in mind.
     
  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    The fact that our current coaches don't seem inclined to play him or build around him doesn't make him less of a prospect. They can be wrong.

    Please stop telling other people how we should be thinking, or insinuate that we lack intelligence if we disagree with you. Its low class.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Where is any of that happening?
     
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Your quote, right here.

    I do, very much, believe that Rosen is the Dolphins QB of the long term future, if given a fair chance.
     
  10. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    "If you want peace, prepare for war."

    Miami loading up on draft picks here, even at the expense of a likely franchise LT, means that they're going all in on going all out in 2020 and possibly 2021. That's likely better than going 80% and finding out that you can't get done what you want because a lack of ammo.

    If Rosen were dead weight he'd be gone, I expect. As far as I can tell, it looks like the staff aren't convinced he's the guy yet, but are of course open to the possibility down the line. Regardless, they're preparing for war - preparing to be ready to take a top QB if need be, or else, load up around Rosen if something happens this year - but they're not counting on that.

    My best guess is that they're looking at Tua, if he's available this year, and/or Lawrence next year. If it's 2021 then expect even more moves made to gain draft picks. It looks to me like they're trying to lock down their key move(s) and then figure the rest out as they go. So much so that they'd rather have the franchise QB without an LT than miss out on that QB to retain the tackle.

    It certainly doesn't look like they believe in Rosen at this point.

    As for Rosen getting a fair chance, he'll get one. He's been getting one in camp. He needs to step it up and remove any doubt - and if we take Flores at his word, that means in communication, leadership, attitude, etc. He needs to prove himself the complete package, because if Miami will cut proven talent like Tunsil in order to get the right QB, they have no reason to keep a QB who can't prove himself.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What I meant there is that I believe that’s what the Dolphins are thinking, that they can’t possibly view him that way.
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing about keeping or ditching Rosen is that it’s actually cost-effective to keep him as a backup under his current contract.
     
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  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Well, then that's totally fair, phrased that way. Any one of us can believe anything, which is fine. And we can all have our own ideas about what the team is planning.

    My biggest problem is when people start telling others that their personal opinions are wrong, or worse unnaceptable. Its a big pet peeve of mine.
     
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  14. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My pet peeve is when people don’t trim their dogs nails. Then they jump on you and scratch you.
     
  15. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Bro, nobody needs to make any decisions right now.

    In the immortal words of Aaron Rodgers, "R-E-L-A-X."

    There will be time to evaluate Rosen, and it is at the end of the season.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I also don't think Rosen is our franchise QB, but I don't think our recent moves had anything to do with Rosen's play in preseason.

    First of all, I don't think any HC in the NFL would really make such a momentous decision based on preseason alone. You have to see how the guy plays in regular season games before you know whether he's the real deal or not. I mean.. look no further than guys like Tom Brady or Kurt Warner who didn't beat their incumbents out in training camp to see that you need regular season games to evaluate.

    Secondly, I don't think the Rosen move was a 1-year thing from the coach's point of view. From Rosen's perspective it should be thought of as a 1-year tryout because if we draft a QB high in 2020 the chances Rosen unseats him afterwards is really low. But from a coach's point of view I don't think they mind having Rosen sit and learn, using him as the backup plan in case the 2020 draft pick doesn't pan out. We already saw "trial by fire" with Rosen last year and it didn't work out, and if Flores is smart he'll take that into account.

    Finally, there's little in terms of "win now" we can do anyway. The season is about to start and our OL was bad even with Tunsil. Vegas had us at 4.5 wins (worst in the NFL.. 2nd worst is Arizona with Kyler Murray lol at 5.5) before the trade. After the trade? Still at 4.5 but the moneyline for "under" is at -145 now so the odds of under are higher:
    https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/season-wins.sbk

    Point is, Vegas thought we were really bad anyway and this trade didn't move the needle much.
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree with cBrad- this is not a signal to thoughts on Rosen at all. We would have traded Howard for two firsts and a second as well; we would have traded any player for that. When someone is willing to overpay by that much, you just can't say no because it's a detriment to your team. This one trade advanced our rebuild a full season whether Rosen is the guy or not.

    Personally I hate it because I love Tunsil that much, but I would have taken the trade without a 2nd thought.

    Plus, Preston Williams was going to take someone's place in the starting lineup anyway- would it be Parker, Wilson/Grant or Stills? Parker is too valuable with his big catch radius and you always want Wilson or Grant on the field. That left Stills with the short stick and I don't think it's about his talent- Williams is simply more dynamic in basically every possible way.

    Does this trade hurt Rosen? Maybe short term, yeah...which makes all the more sense NOT TO start him. Let Fitz take the beating until someone halfway gets up to speed at LT. I'm good with that....in fact, I'm GREAT with that. If anything, I think it signals that this team values Rosen and wants to let him grow organically without getting killed.

    One last thing- you asked what we do with all those picks if it's not for Tua- are you kidding? We could have one of the best DL's in the league next season OR grab the best corner in the draft and the top RB. There's unlimited possibilities when you're loaded like this and it's exactly how the Pats built a championship long-term contender. We don't need the best LT....we need a really good one and another really good player somewhere else. Tunsil got us 3 starters for 2021 and the math is very simple- 3 > 1

    Again, I HATE losing Tunsil....not saying that it was an easy call at all. But I love this trade because it gives us the real vision...8 picks in the first two rounds of 2020 and 2021. That's likely 7 or 8 starters and we're going to get really freaking stacked really quick! This year will stink but suddenly I'm okay with it- 0 and 16 or 7 and 9 makes no difference at all anymore.

    We're clearly playing for a Super Bowl run in 2021.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
  18. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I am really excited at the thought of Rosen throwing the ball to the combo of Parker and Williams on a regular basis, plus the TEs. I want that consistent, quick intermediate passing game all day long. After they figure out who's playing LT while getting 14 killed in the process, maybe we'll see.
     
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  19. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    IMO Rosen was always a developmental prospect. He has arm talent, but he's also had consistency issues. He is often late on his reads and his accuracy is below what you tend to see from elite prospects. I had him rated as a second round pick in that draft, which is how I tend to value QB prospects that have potential but will need time to develop. I think AZ was disappointed by how much development he clearly needed and had the opportunity to draft a prospect they saw as superior. I think the Dolphins see Rosen as a developmental prospect as well. This was never about having one year to evaluate and Rosen and then decide whether or not to draft a QB high. It was always about getting multiple bites at the apple. Rosen was one bite and whomever they draft was going to be another bite.

    My hope as to how this plays out is that Fitz can survive as long as possible to give Rosen as much time to learn as he can. He is clearly not ready. Whether he's better than Fitz right now is irrelevant. What matters is giving Rosen the best chance to succeed. Hopefully Rosen learns enough (and Fitz survives enough) to get some snaps after the bye. Then we get the guy we want in the draft and let him learn while Rosen starts. At that point a confident and comfortable Rosen performs well enough to either be the guy, garner a high pick from another QB needy team or at least be a good back-up for us. Personally, I see his ceiling as a low level starter and I expect that there will be at least four superior prospects in this draft, but who knows?
     
  20. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    It's hard to know what the Dolphins are thinking here. Was the Tunsil deal one the Dolphins couldn't pass up, or is it we have seen enough of Rosen to realize we need to go shopping next year? I think it's a little of both. Teams always say it. Every guy is available for the right price. The Texans paid the price, and they got Tunsil and Stills. As for Rosen, does this mean his opportunity is over? Maybe, maybe not. It's up to him. Football is a production business. Every player should be looking over their shoulder because teams are always looking to replace them with younger cheaper talent. When he gets his chance, he needs to seize the day and produce at a high level and don't make it easy on them. If he does then maybe we have our franchise QB, if he doesn't, then he's another resource we may keep as a backup or trade away for a pick. It's really up to him on how we proceed.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would agree with that if Rosen were starting. Again, I don't think the team can possibly think it has the elite quarterback it wants when that quarterback is neither starting nor inspiring the win-now (or win-sooner-than-later) mentality that would preclude this trade.

    We're sitting you on the bench and trading away your young, premier left tackle and (arguably) best wide receiver, yet you are our quarterback of the future? Doesn't compute.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I should make a qualification here.

    There are three ways the team can view Rosen at the present time: 1) that he is its QB of the future, 2) that he is not its QB of the future, and 3) that it doesn't yet know either way.

    My point here is that it can't possibly be number one at present. The team may still not know whether Rosen will be its QB of the future until some point in the future, but right now the team can't possibly think he's its QB of the future. They have to believe they have enough information about him to make that judgment, given his current backup status and this trade.

    I should've titled the thread "Josh Rosen Isn't the Future Right Now."
     
  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Do you think that another team with a 22 year old QB drafted high in the first round could view their guy as the future? Or should they feel the same way?

    Should the Jets, Bills, Ravens, Cardinals, ect all be uncertain? If so, then its a fair point. But if its just the Dolphins, I don't see why.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Good question. I think the Chiefs are sold on Mahomes, the Texans are sold on Watson, the Rams are sold on Goff, and the Browns are sold on Mayfield, for example. I think those teams are ready to proceed forward without any interest in allocating resources toward the acquisition of a quarterback.

    Teams like the Jets, Bills, Titans, and Bears I believe are uncertain. They're working with highly-drafted QBs and hoping for the best, but like the Cardinals last season with Rosen, they are subject to jettisoning them if they have the ability to draft one they believe will play at an elite level.
     
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  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Not to mention the fact that Rosen was drafted by that train wreck of a team in the Cardinals. He was never going to be a success in Phoenix.

    I’m fairly optimistic about our team’s future. I already see changes in the overall attitude in the staff as well as the players. With the trade of Tunsil and Stills, in exchange for a stockpile of draft picks, you’re already seeing the New England blueprint that has made the Patriots the pinnacle of perineal success.

    Personally I feel the trade for Rosen was a maneuver to get a young franchise quarterback cheap but even if Rosen doesn’t pan out, there are draft picks that’ll weigh heavy on his, or any other player’s minds for that matter...do your job or you can be replaced.
     
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  26. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Fair enough, as long as thats how you feel. You and I couldn't be more different in that approach though. I want to draft a guy that I like, build as good a team as I can around him, and then he's my guy through the rookie contract. Let him show what he can do, and then you make the call whether yo extend him or move on after year four. I am fully opposed to drafting another QB high while you still have a young one who's figuring it out.
     
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  27. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    While I liked Tunsil you would have to be crazy to pass up this deal! IMHO it’s harder to get a franchise QB than a left tackle. You could theoretically buy a LT in free agency where as you can’t get a Franchise QB. Secondly they got rid of a player who was it seems a problem for Flores I. Kenny stills. He just set an example that speaking out wasn’t going to happen. This is now a team not an individuals platform.

    we now have better draft picks in line than the raiders had when they completely revamped their team. We have the ammo to get whomever the coaching and front office want. We can get our quarterback, stud offensive line players, wideout and defensive line players all from one draft. Then sprinkle in some smart free agents and we could easily be a 9-10 win team next year
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the issue is that lots of these guys are getting overdrafted right now. You have players like Tannehill, and maybe Rosen, who would've been second- or third-rounders in the previous era of the NFL, when the passing game wasn't so prominent, who are now getting drafted in the top 10 overall. There are going to be lots of let-downs in that scenario, and I think you have to be ready to move on like the Cardinals did unless that overdrafted guy comes in and lights the world on fire.

    The other part of that equation is that these new head coaches nowadays may get only three years to show what they can do, and obviously that hinges to a large degree on how their quarterbacks perform.
     
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  29. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Of course you can think Rosen is your future QB. No one really knows yet if he is or isn't and this trade doesn't imply that in any way shape or form.

    This trade gives us strength in future player selection along with enough cap space that we are not in an all or nothing position in selecting FA's. If it demonstrates anything, it demonstrates that EVERY PLAYER is a potential trade asset.

    None of this points at Rosen any more then any other player on this team!

    Your letting your aspirations (this is another way of saying delusions), negative though they be, guide your thought process. Self delusion is the most limiting kind of delusion you can have.
     
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  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I guess we'll disagree on that one too, lol. For me, Rosen is a top 5 QB prospect in the last 20 years. Maybe third after Luck and Palmer. And I liked RT a lot too. After Luck, he was probably me second favorite one in the window from 2009-2014.
     
  31. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I disagree with the OP on this one. Just because we trade Laremy Tunsil doesn't mean that we don't feel Rosen has a future.
     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Because this was an absolutely crazy scenario to begin with. The Cardinals got shiny object syndrome and traded their 1st round QB after a single season...and that's after putting that guy behind the worst line in the NFL. He did okay in those conditions and showed a lot of poise, but the Cardinals stunk because the team stunk. Flores does not want to repeat that mistake.

    I'm not saying Rosen is "the guy"...maybe he's a complete bust. But for now Flores likes what he sees and he's trying to iron out the remaining issues before throwing the kid to the wolves. For two seasons, I begged Miami to do that with Tannnehill because he was 85-90% there on the field, and he never developed that last 10-15% because he learned on the fly. In my opinion, his pocket presence got worse each season until he sat a year on the bench injured- then it was better in 2018. But it was too late by then, the kid was already flinching before contact and closing his eyes....RT has battered wife syndrome. Yet Rosen is still smiling when the pocket collapses and that's what you want in your franchise QB.

    Again, I'm not saying Rosen is a lock or anything like that, but the Dolphins are doing the right thing by letting him develop from the bench. He will start sometime this year and they will know if he's the man or not- it's just not going to be in week 1 unless Fitz gets hurt. I guarantee Rosen starts at least 6 games in 2019 though and we will have a really good idea going into 2020.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Right, I clarified that later on. I don't think the team thinks Rosen doesn't have a future at this point. I just think the team doesn't (yet) think he necessarily does right now.

    That's a subtle but important difference, because it distinguishes the Dolphins from teams like the Browns, Chiefs, and Rams, who appear to believe they've found their quarterbacks of the future and aren't putting those guys on the bench to learn (perhaps) while positioning themselves to draft other ones.

    If the Dolphins believed right now that Rosen was its quarterback of the future, I think they'd be starting him and keeping his surrounding cast in place, especially his all-important premier left tackle.

    Some of us are attributing how poorly Rosen played in Arizona to his offensive line there, yet the Dolphins just traded away his best and perhaps only high-quality offensive lineman! That has to mean something about how they view Rosen.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Side note- cutting Ruddick loose was a huge mistake! We may well need 3 QB's this season behind a young, developing line that will be mostly replaced in 2020 and 2021. They wouldn't be grabbing depth at the last minute if they had any confidence at all in that group.
     
  35. This is incorrect and the logical flow you propose is not cohernet. Extremely simple approach to a much more complex issue, I suggest you revealuate your understanding of logic and the decision tree. You are falling into a number of logical fallacies.
     
  36. Also needs correction. You are all over the place from a logic standpoint, almost to the degree of being decerebrated. Step back, realize you are an erratic mess, and let more even keeled gentleman sort things out for you.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    lol.. just to be technical, this isn't an issue of logic per se. It's an issue of whether the assumptions he made are accurate. That is, for every statement The Guy made it is possible that he made a correct logical inference if certain assumptions he made are accurate.

    For example, suppose we could actually test whether it is in general true that coaches and GM's have "far more of a win-now mentality" if they think they have their franchise QB. And suppose we could test the accuracy of the claim: "If coaches and GM's have more of a win-now mentality then they are less likely to trade Tunsil in the situation the Dolphins found themselves in". If these types of statements are accurate, then one of the claims The Guy made is a logical inference.

    Just saying that logically speaking this isn't about logic per se but about the accuracy of the assumptions he made.
     
  38. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Josh Rosen has three years of team control after this season. The success or failure of the deal comes in that time-frame, not whether or not he proves you don't have to draft a QB in 2020, which was realistically probably never going to be an option.

    If you want a clear goal with Rosen, how about this- grooming him to start early 2020 over your draft pick in an offense you've used a significant portion of your abundant resources to rookie-proof. Give him the best possible scenario to succeed, and showcase him for trade.

    If you can get him to play pretty well under those circumstances, you've got a serious trading chip. Teddy Bridgewater went for a 3rd round pick to be insurance for Drew Brees on a one-year deal after demonstrating almost nothing besides the health of his knee. Sam Bradford went for a 1st and 4th(that could have turned into a 2nd) at 29 years of age with one year left on his deal after Bridgewater went down.

    You'll have Rosen in your back pocket over a time-frame where most of Brady, Roethlisberger, Phillips, Rodgers, and Brees will retire, or need serious replacement plans in place, where teams might not want to go through a rebuilding period. If you can make Rosen look pretty good, you've got a lot of leverage and a lot of potential openings.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If Rosen does well but not well enough to beat out a 2020 draft pick at QB, then I am totally against using him as trade bait. There are enough examples of teams that won the SB with a backup QB that you'd rather keep a good backup QB on the roster than trade him.
     
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  40. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    IMO they saw him as a solid, longer term cheap backup with potential to be a starter if things broke well. Based on what we are seeing, they don't seem sold on him as a starter at all, and don't seem interested in giving him the platform to maximize his potential success. He will get a shot at some point I have no doubt, but unless he puts together a really really good year, we are drafting Tua or Herbert or someone high.

    I don't think we can wait until 2021 to draft Lawrence. I just don't see a really good coach helming the worst team in the league two years in a row and then turning "it" on and accelerating into the playoffs.

    Nah, Ruddock is garbage - camp arm/filler QB. We can pick him or someone the same without issue. ****, the Lions cut David Fales hah
     
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