This is an overall discussion of the draft, but go to the 19:00 minute mark and listen until the 25-26 minute mark. Two things: Kiper talks about how he has worked year round for 32 years (not a 4 month a year deal) and second, he points out how he puts his stuff out there to be judged - rating all the players. Basically, Mel notes that if you want to really be known, put it all out there and don't just talk about a few players you predicted. While a lot of people criticize Mel, how many put out ratings on every player like he does - and leave it out there for public record? With Mel, you can go back and look and say, "Well, these are all the guys he predicted and what they would do and where they should be drafted - and he got X% right." That's really the only way to determine, "Does this draft guru really know his stuff?"
IMO Kiper is the best at compiling info. His publication is chocked full of data. I don't think his projections are necessarily better than anybody else's, but you can't knock the amount of info he gathers.
I like Kiper he's entertaining to watch but unfortunately over the years he's been muzzled by the the corporate culture at ESPN. I guess that is part of the deal when you become a national figure even for something as limited as the NFL draft.
How come several months before the draft Kiper has all his picks posted and then about a week before the draft most of his picks are changed and his draft board looks like everyone else's board? Most of these draft analysts don't have an original thought in their head and they go with what the heard mentality. Kiper has been around longer then most of the other draft experts but that doesn't make him better.
The trouble with Mel Kiper is that he focuses on the draft year-round. He grades prospects, but he's completely ignorant of the needs and draft philosophies of the teams doing the drafting. In the end, he winds up projecting players based on puddle-deep analysis of the NFL. You really can't be a "draft guru" if you don't know what the 32 teams are looking for when you talk about which prospect will be drafted where and why.
The best at compiling info IMO, is Russ Lande. When he used to put out a printed draft annual, it was as thick as 3 of Kipers stacked together. Maybe 4. He only puts it out on CD or DVD now though, which is a much more manageable item than a draft pub thick as a big city phone book.
IMO Lande is a great analyst. I always pay special attention when he likes a QB. I've never seen his draft annual though.
He only put out like 3 or 4. I think I have every one of them. His top ten or so at every position would be one profile per page. Then he would go three per page after that. He never included kickers or punters in any of his annuals because he felt it was generally a waste to use a pick on one. I agree he is sharp on QBs. He had Tyler Thigpen rated fairly high in his draft class, amongst QBs while most everyone else had him buried as a UDFA, as I recall. He was also the only draft guru then to call Tim Couch a late 1st/early 2nd type of QB. He was adamant that Couch should not be ranked #1 overall.
IIRC Lande was high on Bulger as well, when the consensus had him as a 5th or 6th rounder. I always focused on QBs b/c of the importance of the position. I had Couch rated as a 2nd rounder as well. I also thought Joey Harrington was a 2nd/3rd round guy when most had him in the first. My dark horse hit was Kurt Warner after watching an Arena league game. It was my first year playing fantasy football. I drafted Warner when Green got hurt in preseason and finished in the top 100 in a +100,000 person league. The one QB I've said was going to be bad and just missed on was McNabb. I never thought he was accurate enough to succeed.
