i rather keep that 2nd rounder and sell the farm and the house on top of it to get one of the young QB´s that are coming out next year
Well Al, I have two working theories this offseason: -Improving the running game is mandatory, even before adding a Qb -We do not need a superstar Qb, we need a competent Qb with upside I think 1) was solved with adding DThomas and Pouncey and Garner's return to health 2) is the question, to me I'm risk adverse, go with Orton no matter the cost as his 3 yr trend arrow is pointed upwards and there is little downside risk. There should be a 3) fix Special Teams As the 5 Td's in additional production Orton offers would be magnified, and Henne's job made easier, without those 4 kick return Td's we gave up last season.
The NFL's leading receiver didn't hurt did it? Eddie Royal and Gaffney aren't exactly slouches. It didn't hurt that your head coach helped Tom Brady become great in New England. Nope. The larger point being "Kyle Orton is a Red Zone TD producing machine". When it was shown that he and Henne were throwing it at the same clip, the "point" sort of morphed into something else". , this idea that both took a very similar number of pass attemps: Only the blind cannot admit Henne didn't get better in a few areas. The intermediate game is his. He got better at his reads. His touch got somewhat better. Orton, a 7 year veteran produces Red Zone TD's at a lower percentage than a third year player with a few question marks. This thread has been entirely misinformation, deflection, and topic changing to suit it. Orton is a solid NFL QB. In the NFL, solid is average. He isn't elite and is not worth passing up on Barkley, Jones, Weeden, or Luck.
Actually, you deflected by changing the topic when ck corrected you. If there was a "larger point" it should have been included in the thread title. At the moment, the first page is filled with wrong stats you posted, defense of the stats, admitting the stats were wrong, you staying strong with the conclusions of the bad stats, and the proof that Kyle Orton is no better than Henne in the red zone and an average QB. Again, if there is a larger point, let that be the thread title. Do not change the topic to win the debate.
Yeah, uhm, anything to avoid discussing the actual player's performance, same with Vince Young discussions. Which is fine, when and if Henne is replaced, you'll not be able to say, "did not see it coming".
In the Young thread I posted his stats straight up. In this thread about Red Zone TD's (or it used to be), I showed statistically Henne is one percentage point better than Orton. You can spin what I say all you want. Nothing about what I said is untrue though. This thread has a lot of backpedal. "when and if" Even that is a backpedal. Either be confident he's gone or don't be. Be consistent.
And as my counter stated, the reason why Orton has more TD's is simply because he is a more efficient Qb, it really is that simple KM. Henne threw far to many picks on his side of the 50, Orton did not, and has not, which is why he produced 43-2 over the last 3 seasons, at least one of the reasons why he is simply better then Chad Henne. If ones' line of thought is "well gosh, Orton had more chances, they produced at the same rate!" then Henne perhaps needs to talk to his Qb about..oh, that's right..
Orton is a below average to average QB. If Miami picks him up we'll already know this because he's had what, 7 years on some pretty good teams to prove he isn't and he hasn't. Henne, on the other hand, has played 2 seasons on poor teams and plays pretty close ortons leave already. Sent from my PB99400 using Tapatalk
Less what? Less dumb calls and injured OL & WRs? Less practice squad guys to throw to? I think you're viewing the situation through the prism that suits your POV Pads. Josh McDaniels is one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, bright enough to be a HC at a very young age. He has a TON to learn about managing players and choosing personnel bu there's no denying his skill set as a tactician. It's no surprise that he was hired to help coach of Sam Bradford, the equivalent of jockeying a top tier thoroughbred as he develops. Meanwhile, Henning's *** was put out to pasture, and the decision was leaked before the season even ended, which made for some interesting comments from the old man during the final weeks of the season. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to say that Orton, who was average at best before he got to Denver, benefited greatly from having a coach who knew what the hell he was doing. Did Brandon Lloyd suddenly become a great WR last year? Did Matt Cassell suddenly turn into a good QB when Weiss got to KC? Is Dwayne Bowe THAT much better (14 TDs to 3) better than Brandon Marshall? My hope is that like Weiss, Mangini & McDaniels, Brian Daboll is able to flourish after learning under Saban and/or Belichek and that Henne is able to benefit from better coaching the way Orton and Cassel were. Peyton Hillis went from a 3rd stringer to the Pro Bowl and Cover of Madden 2012 in one year under Daboll. IMO this is too many coincidences to count. Putting players in the right system and position to succeed is IMO, just as important as how talented they are. Certainly its important enough to explain the gaps in production between Orton-Lloyd, Cassell-Bowe & Henne-Marshall.
Denver was 19th in points and 13th in yards. Miami was 30th and 21st. Orton didn't do that all by himself. Lloyd, Gaffney and Royal as a group are as good as Marshall, Hartline and Bess IMO and for young developing guys, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker any day over Moore and Wallace.
Considering Lloyd was nothing until he hooked up with Orton, and Bebe Thomas played in 10 games (w/22 receptions) and Decker played in 14 games with 6 catches, and Eddie Royal had similar to Hartline numbers. Lloyd and Gaffney posted career highs with Orton, Royal did not match his outstanding rookie season but had a good season, Orton did the best he could, add in their running game ranked 26th, 5 places behind our pathetic 2010 output and "yeah" I'd say Orton had even less to work with then Henne.
Brandon Lloyd? BeBe Thomas? Eric Decker? McDaniels did not last the season, and Orton was on pace to throw for 5,000 in 2010 http://espn.go.com/blog/afcwest/post/_/id/20359/page/MNF/rivers-orton-could-double-5000-yard-club
If you factor his 13 games and yardage over 16 games he would have had 4496, not 5000. IMO, it comes down to this, if Orton is as good as you think he is, the Broncos won't trade him, they'll extend his contract and keep him.
I don't care what Thomas or Decker did in 2010. Just over the long term, I'd rather have them than Moore and Wallace as my developmental guys. In 2010, Lloyd, Royal and Gaffney were all healthy the entire season. 48 games played out of a possible 48 games between them. That had to help Orton, just like it would have helped Henne if Marshall and Hartline missed no games. YMMV, but I'd rather have Denver's 5 WRs going forward than Miami's 5. As for Lloyd, I do not agree he was nothing before paring with Orton. He had a couple of good seasons in SF early in his career, playing on offenses with terrible QB play.
Eh, a good point however with Orton Beast and Lloyd had outstanding seasons, Henne has yet to really lift anyones' game to a different level. As for going forward, not so sure, bebe tore an achilles last yr and Decker has yet to do much of anything.
To be fair, this really is something of a different argument in general, as my line of thinking is this is not some new thing for Orton, and it shouldn't be, Henne has 27 starts in total and a run first offense his first two yrs, Henne has not shown he can do that yet, aside from Fasano, but it doesn't mean he couldn't. My approach is Orton is more certain to lift some players games, not that Henne just couldn't do the same, Orton is more shake and bake.
I think Orton is a solid little QB..quick compact in his movements and delivery, doesn't make a lot of mistakes, seems like a good leader, always suprises me when I watch him play ball. Can I part with a 2nd rounder after what I saw last year with Henne...''Can't do it captain, I don't have da power''.
screw orton. Seriously, theres a reason no ones hitched their wagon to the guy. He put up some great numbers last year and guess what? They sucked. QBs who get good stats and their teams still lose = losers! Just like Thigpen on the chiefs! Good stats but they went 1-10 with him. LOSER!. Kyle Orton 20 tds, 9 ints, 3500yds, but they were 3-10. LOSER! Now is Henne a "Winner"? No. But he is around .500 as a starter and hes a bit younger. I agree with those saying you let Henne have this season and if he fails you move on in next years draft. But going out and getting a LOSER like Orton would be a mistake.
Vision..blah blah..perfect fit..blah blah...played in similar offense to Dabolls' in Denver..blah blah blah... Reason why I'd roll the dice with Orton is you know what you are getting, you solve the Qb problem for 5 yrs, and #2 pick Qb's do not deliver the value he would, and if he fails, well, last yr of his deal anyway, he can leave with Sparano if things go badly in 2011.
Or, you could say with Marshall and Lloyd, Orton had good seasons. Even with the torn Achilles, you'd tell me going forward you would not trade Moore and Wallace today for Thomas and Decker?
I think one side believes we absolutely "know" Henne's going to be great. Nah. I hope he will. I've seen enough to tell me he can be good. It's not a guarantee. My thing is, I want to give the guy a shot to take over this team and run us into the playoffs. If that does not work, which I "know" there is a possibility it might not, I don't want to throw out our ability to take an impact QB in next year's rich class. Orton is not a Super Bowl QB. He and Henne at this point are both guys who need perfect conditions to make that run. I think Henne can take a step above that this year with better coaching. Orton is a 7 year veteran, nothing doing. I say let Henne sink or swim, if he sinks, I don't think there's been a draft class since I've been following football, better at the QB position.
The line of thinking goes "you have to use a #1 pick on a Qb!" Which is a pandora's box of problems if it does not work out, think Brady Quinn in 2007 and how offbase most fans were when they passed on drafting him. Which is why Orton, or to lesser extent Young, make sense for us, both are in the last yr of their deals, if they fail, or if Henne, who is also in the last yr of his deal, fails, you can have a clean sweep. If they succeed then you have a Qb for 5 yrs at least.
Have we forgotten what happens when you let a QB "sink or swim"? Putting Chad Henne out there without legitimate competition is going to lead to disaster if he plays poorly. You can't face a locker of 52 guys and tell them years of hard work are for nothing, because they decoded to roll the dice on a QB that was pointed out by many players as being a detriment last season. Orton might be worth it just for the legitimacy he would bring to whomever is the starting QB.
I'm not ready to give up on Henne yet, Dan Henning is gone and so are the non-3 step drops. Let's give Henne a chance with this new offense and let's see what happens. The thing that's going to hurt Henne the most is this damn lockout. Its going to be so much harder to succeed right now and the Henne haters are going to rip every mistake that is made, whether it's his fault or not. A few years back we had a play where both backs went the same way, but our QB (forgot who it was at the time), took all the blame on here. Funny thing is, all these bashers had no clue what play was called and have no clue who messed up, but blamed the QB because they hated him.
I always disagree with this tactic of pretending that Chad Henne's first year of starting is apples-to-apples and able to be compared with the production of true rookies. It's just sloppy. And I feel like people do it to make a convenient argument rather than an effective one. Tons of players have come in having sat the bench for a year or two or whatever, and totally lit it up. Let's go down the list of guys that have played recently that have been considered really good QBs, but didn't start a significant amount of games until after their true rookie years...see what they did in that first year of significant starting: Kurt Warner - 109 QBR Chad Pennington - 104 QBR Marc Bulger - 102 QBR Daunte Culpepper - 98 QBR Tony Romo - 95 QBR Aaron Rodgers - 94 QBR Phil Rivers - 92 QBR Matt Cassel - 89 QBR Matt Schaub - 87 QBR Tom Brady - 87 QBR Brett Favre - 85 QBR David Garrard - 84 QBR Michael Vick - 82 QBR Jake Delhomme - 81 QBR Jeff Garcia - 78 QBR Drew Brees - 77 QBR Carson Palmer - 77 QBR Chad Henne - 75 QBR Matt Hasselbeck - 71 QBR Now take a look at a pool of QBs that are/were considered either franchise players or potentially franchise players, and started a significant number of games as a true rookie. Ben Roethlisberger - 98 QBR Jay Cutler - 89 QBR Matt Ryan - 88 QBR Joe Flacco - 80 QBR Donovan McNabb - 79 QBR Sam Bradford - 77 QBR Vince Young - 77 QBR Peyton Manning - 71 QBR Mark Sanchez - 63 QBR Kerry Collins - 62 QBR Matt Stafford - 61 QBR Josh Freeman - 60 QBR Kyle Orton - 60 QBR Eli Manning - 55 QBR There's a very clear difference there. The average of the "1st year starters (non-rookies)" is an 88 QB Rating. The average of the "1st year starters (rookies)" is a 73 QB Rating. So every time someone reaches for Henne's 2009 and tries to draw it in comparison, for instance, with Kyle Orton's 2005...I just think that's a sloppy way of doing things. Sacrificing legitimacy just to make an argument.
The other thing I think we should ALL be able to agree on is the fact that Miami had better weapons in 2010 than the Denver Broncos. I'm not saying that Kyle Orton is the answer and I spent most of this thread pointing out that Chad Henne is at least as good as him in the red zone. But fair is fair.
Man I cant wait for the lockout end to end (HOPEFULLY) this argument and get an idea of what the real experts (or even those paid to act like they are and actually have a say in our direction) rather than discussing ad nauseum point after point after point as to whether Henne is or isnt the answer. I guess that is my peeve, is everyone is arguing is or isnt not may or may not be. As if they know, the phins will decide in manner that reflects that certian people are smarter than others, blah blah. Not bashing anyone, think this site and its members are awesome and do realize there is a lockout so topics are limited etc. I just frustrated , I have read alot of threads/posts that seem to have more and more ego coming thru as if there is a prize for proving how smart you are. I am not impressed by beating of the chest look at me attitudes. Its like the more someone differs from us, the digger we deep in defense of our beliefs as if it is a challenge to our sanity that we be wrong. Padre has been trumping orton and young I cannot stand the idea of young it makes me froth at the mouith hatred of it. That doesnt mean I think Padre is wrong, well I do think he is wrong, but I dont think it is a stupid position from him, nor that he is not an informed intelligent poster, he is. He has proven that over and over. WHy is it that we keep arguing the same point over and over? Nothing really new is beiong said, it resembles an attempt to convince thay we are right and trying to sway opinion. I dont know anything other than I am rambling. I am just tired of teh lockouyt, tired of nothing really new to talk about. Oh on a side note, I was firmly neutral on the whole who is at fault for the lockout, but now I am leaning to players side being right. If some owners think all others need to cave yto them SELL YOUR F'KIN TEAM YOU MORON! Seriously, if you old and decreped Ralph Wilson and cant make money uinless Jerry Jones splits his profits with you, then you suck. I love tradition, but if Buffalo cant support a team, move! If GB can show a profit, be competitive, why cant Buffalo? We lose football because some owners are too stupid to make money in the NFL, then f' you too bad, sell the team cause you are a moron. JMHO Anyway, I love debating qbs and Henne, but I see alot of undertones where there is patronizing and talking down going on and i makes me laugh. Alot coming from people I know are very intelligent and spend alot of time, but could use a course in tact. We all want the same thing, IF VY come here and leads us to the SB, i will be ecstatic to be wrong. If Henne does bomb, we need to move on. We throw so many stats around but simple fact is at this point, Henne will at least compete and possibly win the job. This year seems like a bad year to try to get a vet option that has or can prove to be a sure fire answer. I firmly believe that Sparano and Ireland put their chips on Henne and they will sink or swim with him. but in the end noone KNOWS, actions will be the only thing to bring the answer.
For all the "weapons" Miami had, if you fire a gun at the air or point the barrel at your face, the results won't be pretty.
Nonetheless it shouldn't really be up for debate. I just watched all of Kyle Orton's throws against the Jets and all of Chad Henne's throws against the Jets in the first game (not the second game), and I don't see any argument there. They both had good pass protection most of the time but Orton's skill position players were not as good as Miami's. And the Denver running backs were averaging like 3.6 yards per carry. Miami's were not great either at 3.8 yards per carry. If you want to make the argument that Miami's superior skill position players didn't matter as much because of scheme or however you want to put it, that's fine. But we all should be able to agree that they were superior to what Orton had going for him.
That's a fair point. But I think you also have to take into account the Josh McDaniels vs Dan Henning dynamic. McDaniels was fired in Denver but is now the OC and QB coach for the Rams, who apparently believe McDaniels is good w/ QBs. Does anyone think St. Louis would want Dan Henning anywhere near Sam Bradford? If Daboll is can come close to what McD did in Denver or what Weiss did in KC then I think we'll see a significant improvement in production from Henne and from the offense as a whole.
I agree that Miami was better in skill positions but. not by a wide margin. I would add that Miami played a tougher schedule. Henne had playoff teams in the Pack, Ravens, Steelers, and Pats and Jets twice. Orton had the Ravens, Jets, Colts, Seahawks, and Chiefs twice. I would take the weaker schedule to have more bearing. This has some bearing. While Orton threw 5 more TDs, 4 of them were vs KC in a 49-29 blowout, and 3 were vs the Rams in a 33-36 shoot out loss. PFF, after watching every play and assigning blame on whoever was at fault, has Orton at #16 at throwing the ball, with Henne at #17 for last year. In 09, Henne was#16, and Orton was #19. For me, this is very accurate. At this point, I see both as being that close. The difference is that Henne has a bigger upside, after playing 2 years in less than ideal conditions, and cost nothing, not a pick, not a big contract, not a potential split in the team or Marshall, absolutely nothing. Easy choice.
What I think bothers me most about Orton is his game to game inconsistency. Well, I guess that and the fact that he absolutely cannot throw if you force him to start scrambling. But the game to game inconsistency is maddening. You watch him play against the Jets and he's throwing great, if he had Miami's weaponry he probably would have led a 30+ point outing. But then you watch him play against the Chiefs and it's like whoa, I wouldn't touch this guy with a ten foot pole, he's just plain inaccurate. I know people SAY that Chad Henne is like that but personally I don't think so. I think his throwing is pretty consistent. What usually changes for Henne game to game are just circumstances and the quality of his pre-snap reads. I would take Kyle Orton as a straight up upgrade, hoping I can get him to be more consistent game to game...but not if it jeopardizes my ability to move around in the 2012 Draft and pick up whichever quarterback speaks to me.
I don't see Orton as an upgrade. If you look at the game grades, he had 10 good games, 2 bad games, and 1 a bit below average. Henne had 9 good games, 2 bad games, 2 a bit above average, and 2 a bit below average. Again, they are so similar from last year, if one looks at the overall picture.
