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Las Vegas over/under win totals... Miami makes playoffs?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Brasfin, May 23, 2015.

  1. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Just loooked at the win totals for the 2015 season and, surprisingly, Miami is within the top 6 teams in the AFC, which means Vegas has Miami making the playoffs as a Wild Card. I really don't remember the last time this happened, so I decided to look back at the last 5 years and see the differences between the Vegas predictions and what really happened.

    2015

    Indianapolis Colts, 10.5 (OVER -170, UNDER +150)
    New England Patriots, 10.5 (OVER -130, UNDER +110)
    Denver Broncos, 10.0 (OVER -130, UNDER +110)
    Baltimore Ravens, 9.0 (OVER +105, UNDER -125)
    Miami Dolphins, 9.0 (OVER +110, UNDER -130)
    Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.5 (OVER +110, UNDER -130)
    Buffalo Bills, 8.5 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
    Cincinnati Bengals, 8.5, (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
    Houston Texans, 8.5 (OVER -120, UNDER EVEN)
    Kansas City Chiefs, 8.5 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
    San Diego Chargers, 8.0 (OVER -120, UNDER EVEN)
    New York Jets, 7.0 (OVER -140, UNDER +120)
    Cleveland Browns, 6.5 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
    Jacksonville Jaguars, 5.5 (OVER -170, UNDER +150)
    Tennessee Titans, 5.5 (OVER EVEN, UNDER -120)
    Oakland Raiders, 5.5 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)


    2014

    Miami Dolphins, 8 Wins Over (+110) / Under (-130)

    Highest win totals in the AFC:
    Broncos (11), Patriots (10.5), Colts (9.5), Bengals (9), Steelers (8.5), Ravens (8.5)

    What really happened:

    Miami Dolphins 8-8

    Teams that made the playoffs:
    Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, Colts, Bengals, Ravens - 6/6 100% success rate



    2013

    Miami Dolphins, 8 Wins Over (+110) / Under (-130)

    Highest win totals in the AFC (7 teams listed because the last 3 were tied at 8.5):

    Patriots (11), Texans (10.5), Broncos (11.5), Steelers (9), Ravens (8.5), Bengals (8.5), Colts (8.5)


    What really happened:

    Miami Dolphins 8-8

    Teams that made the playoffs:
    Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers - 4/7 57% success rate


    2012

    Miami Dolphins, 7.5 Wins Over (-110) / Under (-120)

    Highest win totals in the AFC
    Patriots (12), Steelers (10), Ravens (10), Texans (10), Broncos (9.5), Chargers (9)


    What Really Happened:

    Miami Dolphins 7-9

    Teams that made the playoffs:
    Broncos, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Colts, Bengals - 4/6 66% Success rate



    2011

    Miami Dolphins, 7.5 Wins Over (+110) / Under (-130)

    Highest win totals in the AFC:
    Patriots (11.5), Steelers (10.5), Ravens (10.5), Colts (9.5), Jets (10), Chargers (10)


    What Really Happened:

    Miami Dolphins 6-10

    Teams that made the playoffs:
    Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Steelers, Bengals - 3/6 50% success rate


    2010

    Miami Dolphins, 8.5 Wins Over (-120) / Under (+110)

    Highest win totals in the AFC
    Colts (11), Chargers (11), Ravens (10), Patriots (9.5), Jets (9.5), Steelers (9)

    What Really Happened:

    Miami Dolphins 7-9

    Teams that made the playoffs:
    Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets - 5/6 83% success rate


    Average success rate, past five seasons - 71.2%


    Something we notice right away is that Vegas is pretty good at predicting Dolphins season win totals. They nailed the 8-8 record the past two seasons, were within 0.5 wins in 2012, and 1.5 wins in 2011 and 2010. This is the first time in the last 5 years that they've predicted 9 wins which, to me, is a pretty good sign. Last season Vegas nailed all of the AFC playoff teams, when considering the win totals... let's hope Vegas is as accurate this season.
     
  2. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Vegas is smarter than any of us times 10. Moving us up a full game increases my optimism.
     
    CashInFist and Brasfin like this.
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Looks like they have us as #5 in the AFC...I can live with that...for now.
     
  4. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Week to week predictions in Vegas are really accurate. I think the more into the future you are predicting, the less accurate you become.

    The fact that Chinese casinos are 9 times more efficient at making money than Vegas (article in ESPN:The Magazine on D-Wade's Chinese shoe contract) makes me wonder if there's a Mandarin fantasy football league...
     
  5. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This year's schedule is considerably easier matchup wise, and 2014 was a horrible year for Miami injury wise. I think those factors alone are enough for a 1 game bump.
     
  6. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    By the looks of it, Vegas expects the wild card race to be really tight, they've got 5 teams tied for the 6th spot at 8.5 wins. 9-7 may get two teams into the Wild Card this season. We have to play well versus the rest of the AFC to hold that conference record tiebreaker. The Ravens and Chargers games near the end of the season are going to be key to making the playoffs, IMO. Chargers, we have been playing well as of late, but the Ravens... have to get that monkey off our backs.
     
  7. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Really? Sounds interesting. What reasons did they give?
     
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  8. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    lol and it would send us to Baltimore for the Wild Card round.

    Apparently when we make the playoffs, we must play Baltimore.
     
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  9. jaymoney

    jaymoney it's magic baby

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    I'm not a Chinese but i'm pretty sure the majority(by that mean more than 99.9%) of Chinese don't even know about Football. They do watch NBA because many Chinese play basketball but not football.
    I used play for the amateur football league in South Korea and as far as i know, Japan has most football fans or players in the EastAsia. But again, Japan is all about baseball, generally people don't know, don't watch or even play football. And chinese don't have their league. Never heard or played against them in the american football world cup. But who knows..when you think about 1.5 billions of Chinese...thats just crazy number lol.
     
  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Would be a FANTASTIC monkey to get off our back wouldn't it? Along with Houston this season. Hoping for at LEAST one, if not both!!
     
    Rocky Raccoon likes this.
  11. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

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    I think I've decided not to get season tickets this year, but that is definately a game I plan on going to this year... If we win that one the place should go nuts.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  12. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    with 5 teams within .5 games of us and 1 within 1 we could also be 11th or 12th

    Lets hope everyone stays healthy and Tom Brady comes down with with dysentery. :yes:
     
  13. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That makes sense. When you look at the schedule it should be pretty easy for Miami to get 7 wins and 11 is really optimistic. That means that 8-10 is most likely and 9 splits the difference.

    You guys think Vegas was any more detailed in their analysis? :)
     
  14. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    don't they have some kind of computer program that runs the games 1000's of times and averages outcomes
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, they're quantifying the odds of "less than 9" vs. "greater than 9" with those over/under moneylines (Vegas still thinks it's more likely we end up with 8 wins than 10). That's some detail your analysis lacks! :yes:
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Not sure how it's initially set, but ultimately it's just supply and demand. The more people bet on one side, the more the odds adjust so fewer people bet that way. Unless some huge unexpected betting occurs, bookies can guarantee they make money that way.
     
  17. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    That's because we are the proud owner of the 8-8 king
     
  18. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    They show you the Chinese equivalent in China and it towers over Vegas. They put up a hilarious flow chart in the shape of a circle and showed how a payment of your student loan turns into digital chips that can be gambled. They showed a bunch of different scenarios in which this was the case.
    They mostly focused on Dwade but I wish the whole article was about Chinese casinos...
     

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