Lets remind ourselves of the last 5 games and how we need to win them all. Cleveland @ New York Buffalo Detroit @ New England What stands out to me is we are currently 1-4 at home and 5-1 on the road; and the teams we've lost to, are no worse than 8-3. That says something. The 2 difficult teams to beat we're playing on the road. We like that. The Jets only 2 losses came at home. We like that. We match up ridiculously well against the Jets by the way. It won't be anything like the last matchup when the player leading them in sacks is JT with 4. Henne is awesome when he has time. The Patriots are playing good football period right now. We do not match up well with them. So we'll worry about that when the time comes. At home, we're playing 3 teams with a combined record of 8-25. Each team is 100% better than their records state. However, good teams win these games. We match up extremely well against all 3 teams. Buffalo is my biggest concern because they play ridiculously hard every game. I think winning 5 more in a row is not so out of reach as certain people may think. And living in New York, Jets fans think they are absolutely amazing. They're not. And we all know that. Lets focus on Miami beating Cleveland this week; but lets focus on whoever loses the Baltimore/Pittsburgh and New York/New England matchups to completely go into tailspins. Go Dolphins! Please add any other useful information as to key matchups with stats that may favor us or go against us. As well as, thoughts on Balt, Pitt, NYJ and NE and where you think the rest of the season takes them.
The Jets have a murderer's row schedule coming up. Presuming we beat them and go on to win out, it's possible. The have 3 of 4 on the road, all against division leaders (NE, CHI and PITT), and all those teams still have plenty left to play for. Their home games are against us (where we have won 2 straight) and Buffallo who is going to be a tough out for anybody this year. I still think it's highly improbable that we win out, but if we do, I must admit the chances of our sneaking in loo reasonably good.
We cant afford to look past CLE, but the NYJ is the game to keep the air in the balloon or let all the air out. A loss to NYJ makes the BUF and DET games moot.....however, getting on a roll for a super showdown in the final regular season game vs NE would be so epic. Beat CLE, and then all the marbles are riding on NYJ game for sure.
To the Ravens last year in the playoffs. And if NE beats the Jets, we really should root for them to run away with this thing making it more likely that they will rest Brady and others in the finale.
Yep. That said, in 09 we were in a similar situation, win out, make the playoffs, we proceeded to lay eggs and end the yr with 3 losses in a row which is why the Browns should not be dismissed, they are a decent team with a defense that can make big plays. As dolfans we do tend to get ahead of ourselves, one game at a time means exactly that, but the possibility is still there we just have to wait to see what happens one way or another.
Well let's not forget why we lost to the Patriots. It had nothing to do with our defense and really not much with the offense, it was an absolute special teams meltdown after halftime when the Dolphins were winning after shutting the Patriots offense down, they gave up 21 points or something. The offense even brought the Dolphins back to within 7 or 9 points at one point after the Ricky Williams TD. But, special teams continued to melt down after that. So if we don't give up 21 points on special teams, we have a shot. And if the Jets beat the Patriots, we need the Jets to beat the Steelers. Yes, we will have to cheer for the Jets. But I hope the Pats win that since the Jet schedule seems tougher. Though, the Pats still have the Packers and Bears and us after the Jets.
I could easily see us winning every game leading up to the finale. Of course, I could see us blowing any of those games as well. Against NE last time, I thought we out played them in 2 out of 3 phases. The score was so lopsided b/c that third phase was at a historically bad level. I think NE is playing better now, but I don't think we're a great match-up for them. Really it all comes down to how well we play. IMO we have enough talent to win out, but whether we will or not is another story.
You're absolutely right. and I've been one of the main people saying "it's not going to happen", but I never realized just how daunting the Jets closing schedule is. If we beat Cleveland, which we should do, then that Jets game will tell us quite a bit about this regime and Henne moving forward whether we make it to the playoffs or not
Nope, we cheer for the Stealers, all the way, passing the Jets is the simplest path to the playoffs. How about: We win the next 3 games, Browns, Jets, Lions. Jets lose their next 3 games Pats, Phins, Stealers. We tie the Jets with tie breakers in our favor, add in a Stealers loss and we gain a 1 game advantage heading into the final 2 games vs the Bills and Pats meaning we can lose one more game and still make it into the Big Dance. They then end with the Bears..in chicago and the bills at home where the Jets are not really very good.
Cleveland and the Bills will not be walkovers either, they are both playing very well. My only focus is on the Browns, I can't think farther than them (Not that my thinking matters to the Fins)
Yep, and imho Sparano has done one hell of a job getting a team with this poor of an offense for most of the year in this position, not saying it will or won't happen, but most of the NFL wrote us off as playoff roadkill just last week.
As weird as it is, we need NE to simply run away with the division. We want to be in a 2 way race with the Jets for either the 5th or 6 th seed as that's the really the only race we can win. Once the Jets hit 5 losses (as long as we beat them) suddenly the tie breakers turn in our favor, common opponents, strength of victory, etc.
Yep, and in the case of a 3 way tie, we still win the WC slot. So there is a good possibility, and fwiw, even if it plays out where we clinch the #6 slot heading into the Pats game, I would still like to win that game. And have a rematch with the Stealers in Ketchup Field.
Said it at the time of the loss BDH, but this is so far off, 5 NFL games is a sports Eternity, so much can happen between now and January. We are like Wesley in the Princess Bride, "I did not say dead, he is mostly dead, there is a big difference between the two"
I'm not going to get all that excited after beating a fair Raider's team, and will not after beating a fair Browns team. After we beat the Jets, it will get interesting. Prior stats don't matter with this team. Coming together does, and they took that first step this past Sunday.
I have to agree with a lot of what I am reading. The Jets have a tough schedule the rest of the way and they need to win 2 of 5 to reach 11 wins which is still not a guananteed playoff spot. So with 5 games left, NE, NY and MIA all have to play each other. NY has MIA and Buf at home, and NE on the road. MIA has Buff at home and NE and NY on the road. NE had NY and MIA at home, and BUF on the road. I know Miami has been a better road team this year, but if I had to rank the strength of these schedules it goes 1. Miami, 2. NY and 3. NE. Spin it anyway you want, but playing two of the best teams in the division on the road is not favorable, especially when you have to win both. The other two remaining games favor the Dolphins: MIA: CLE, DET NY: @Pit, @Chi NE: @Chi, GB For these games I rank it 1. NY, 2. NE, 3. MIA. But that being said, I think CLE will be a tough out. I do think MIA is better, but CLE has played some very good games this year. They beat NE and NO soundly and they were in the NY game until the end. Hillis is a stud. The key is stopping him and making them beat you with their QB (Delhomme, I guess?). The bottom line is that the Dolphins are still alive. But color me nutty, but I'd rather have to win 2/5 to get to 11 than run the table - no matter what the schedule looks like.
I agree that we need to take first things first and worry about Cleveland and not jump the gun because we beat the raiders. But I am at least extremely happy that I can watch a football game with a team that I love playing and it still means something. THAT is why I started this "getting ansy" thread.
11 wins won't do it BB, if the Dphins beat the Jets and you lose to the pats, we will win the tiebreakers if you lose one more game, you will need 12 wins, so you can lose to the pats and dolphins, but losing those two games means the tiebreakers swing into the dolphins favor, you will have to win the final 3 games "if" we win out because a tie does you no good.
Beating the Jets in that game if they're coming off of a loss is pretty hard I have to admit. At least they're not Baltimore. What if the Jets beat the Pats, lose to Miami and then lose two close ones to the Steelers and the Bears?
Pats win would put them at 10-2, but if they lose 3 more, they go to 10-5 which means if we win out, we still win the WC. A tie does them no good, and in a 3 way tie, head to head advantage disappears and it goes to conference record, so the Stealers loss would be just as bad as losing to the patriots. Fun stuff, but first things first, beat the Brownies wait to see who wins the Jets Pats game.
If Jets beat the Pats, I don;t think we can surpass them even at 11-5, unless one of the Jets losses is to Buffallo. If they beat the Pats/bills in your scenario while losing to us, they would be 5-1 in division, better than our 4-2. If Jets beat NE, then we need to beat NE and have them lose to Chicago or Green Bay. I believe we would win an 11-5 tie breaker with the Pats so long as they lose to Jets and us, putting them at 3-3 in division. Either way, we need to win out.
I have gone over all of this in my head over and over again since Sunday. It's going to be a fun last 5 weeks. But as others have said, it all starts with the Browns on Sunday at Sun Life. Got to get the win.
Keep an eye out west, if the Chargers or KC finishes in a 3 way tie with us, head to head goes out the window and we hold the edge in AFC record. And the other edge we have is in w/l vs common opponents, beating GB with the Jets losing to them, which means a Jets loss to Chicago would be really sweet as well. IIRC that is how we beat out the patriots in 08 both teams went 11-5 but our intra conference record was better? Fun stuff, may really splurge and buy a nice bottle of cognac..depending of course.
Unfortunately, as is often the case, we can look back to either the first Jets game or Pittsburgh as games that were there for the taking and were lost. Win just one of those and I think we make it comfortably.
What if the Jets 2 wins come against Pit and Buf? Conference record becomes 9-3. Can Miami match that? sent from my EVO 4G
Well, 7-1 now, 2 losses in conference to Pats and phins, 7-3, we would be at 7-4 heading into the patriots game so I'd think if you did win both of those games you would own that tie breaker as the best we can do is 8-4 "but" I think we would win as your intra divisional record would fall to at best 4-2 the same as ours. Ugh, just play the damn games.. I believe how it works out is if we beat the two ducks, Bills and Browns, and you lose to us and the pats, one more loss coupled with a Dolphins win means we own some arcane tie breaker by virtue of beating the Packers which means if you lose to the Bears that gives us the edge as "common opponents" is in there somewhere as well.
I believe that common oppponents is the third tie breaker after head to head and division record. I think that would be tied as well since you lost to GB while we beat them.
I don't think you guys are BB, not with traveling to Chicago and Pittsburgh this time of year. We play the Lions, you play the Steelers in PA, we play the Bills, you get the Bears in Chicago. Now 9-2 is 9-2, the Jets destiny is in their own hands, not to discard that fact o' life, I also think when the breaks stop the Jets could go into a bit of a tailspin..imho. Meanwhile we just have to win 5 in a row for the first time since..2008..no problemo..
If Jets lost to us and Pats it would be best if they lost to Pitt. then common opponents would be tied and we'd move to conference record which we would take by one game. It's confusing, but we could still win a NE tie breaker as well at 11-5, as long as NE picks up 2 of the three losses to AFC East teams. If the Jets beat NE and we continue to win I guarantee you we are playing NE on Sunday night, final game of the regular season, one team in, one team out.
And we would finish either 11-5 or 10-6, either way that is a stunning turnaround. First things first, Brownies and Hillis, Jets v Pats, Ravens V Steelers. And the Wildcard in the Wildcard, the AFC West, keep an eye out there as a three way tie helps us as well, assuming we win out.
It is and we would be tied. You would be +1 for GB win. We get it back with Pit win. So next comes conference record. If the Jets beat Buf plus one of Pit, NE, or Miami, you can't beat us in a tiebreaker... unless I am missing something. sent from my EVO 4G
The worst part about losing to the Steelers, is they look exactly like the Jets right now scraping out wins with luck or good fortune. Even so, Baltimore doesn't look like a sure shot playoff team the way they're playing either. I just don't know who I'd prefer to win that game....
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=defensiverank There are a bunch of scenarios where all of us (Mia, NYJ and NE) all make it at 11 wins or better. If you click on the above the Jets win the division at 12-4, and both us and NE get in at 11-5. This only requires Baltimore falling to 10-6, which is possible given their next 3 games (Pitt, Hou, NO) If the Jets beat NE, they really become irreleavnt except when we play them. We would then merely need NE to drop one of Chicago, GB or Buffallo and then beat them. If we want in this party we need to win out, which is the way it should be.
