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Let's Talk About Playoffs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 5, 2016.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I know that this may seem like a strange topic less than 24 hours after taking our most painful loss of the year. I also know that a lot of you believe that it was some kind of cosmic fluke that allowed us to win six straight with a banged-up team on both sides of the ball. But let me tell you something folks, there's no such thing as flukes in the NFL.

    It was our team that crushed the streaks of the Steelers and Bills, and it was our team that jumped on a plane to California to sweep the entire darn state over a three week span. That's a rarity in football for any team, simply because it's so hard playing on the road in this league. So let's dial back the drama just a tad and look at the larger picture, okay?

    The loss to the Ravens was COLOSSAL in terms of defining the playoff race. It essentially means that if Pittsburgh wins the division, our season is over. The gap between us and Broncos/Chiefs just got a lot larger as well, so catching anyone will require at least 10+ wins this season. I'm still content with10 being the magic number though, because there's only 3 teams left that could possibly get to 11 for that #6 seed. And it just so happens that all three of them have BRUTAL schedules remaining.

    That means we need to play perfect football from here on out, despite being short several key pieces.

    Let's look at why we lost in Baltimore though, because I guarantee you that's what Gase is doing all day today. He's probably already watched the game three times from start to finish, and what he's seeing is a defense that stayed out of position for the majority of the game. He will also see his own mistakes in calling a far too conservative offensive plan after the Parker pick, simply because his quarterback was struggling and he didn't give the kid a chance to work himself out of a hole.

    For instance, compare the 2nd halves between yesterday's contest and the game we played at New England. We had less of our starters on the field against the Pats, yet we attacked the field and fought our way back into the contest. Yesterday though, we just laid down. That's on Gase, my friends. And I guarantee you that he knows it better than anyone this afternoon.

    Now let's talk about some good news...the 6th seed wildcard spot is essentially a 3-man race at this time. KC has all but locked up the #5 slot, so let's just pencil them in there. What remains is-

    Broncos- 8-4
    Pittsburgh- 7-5 record
    Baltimore- 7-5 record
    Dolphins- 7-5 record

    Note that either the Steelers or Ravens end up winning that division, so we're only competing against one of them in these final weeks.

    But let's look at the Broncs, who currently have a one game lead over us. They still have Oakland, KC, New England and 6-6 Tennessee. I think they go 2-2 during this stretch AT BEST, possibly even 1-3. So let's pencil them in at 10-6.

    The Steelers have Baltimore, Buffalo, Cinci and Cleveland...which is a more manageable schedule. Let's say they go 3-1 over this stretch, which puts them at 10-6 as well and taking the division. So the Steelers are likely out of this conversation as the #4 seed.

    The Ravens have NE, Philly, Pittsburgh and Cinci. A 2-2 closing record is likely, placing them at 9-7. They're out. Or maybe they beat Pittsburgh and close with 3-1 and take the division. That's fine too. Either way, one of these two should finish at 9-7 and be left out.

    That leaves your Miami Dolphins at 7-5. I did the other teams largely by opponent's records, so we'll do the same here. We beat Arizona, the Jets and Buffalo with a loss in NE. That ties us solely with the Broncs IF they go 2-2.

    So let's talk about tie-breakers- it all comes down to conference wins, the #2 criteria. Miami would be 8-5 in conference play, the Broncos would be 7-5. So we would take that final spot.

    Now I realize that finishing the season 3-1 SEEMS impossible at this time, but I want you to remember a little tidbit- we've beat the Pats 3 years in a row at home. They've already locked the division as well and they'll likely have the #1 seed, so they may sit starters for the final week. This could be a win for us that I'm counting as a loss.

    The path is easy to compute- win 3 of 4 and we have a pretty decent shot at the post season. If we go 2-2, then it will likely be a 3-way tie and we lose out to the Ravens and Broncos, but beat the Steelers. So it's almost 3-1 or bust.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
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  2. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ill put it down. We will finish 11-5 and play the Ravens in the first Wild Card game. Yes..Im calling us to win the rest of our games.
     
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  3. mor911

    mor911 pooping

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    Arizona is waaaaaaay better than their record. If I were a gambling man, I'd say Miami is going to get wrecked.
     
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  4. Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  5. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Playoffs?!?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Arizona definitely is better than their record, but they're like Baltimore as well...wildly inconsistent. Who knows what they'll bring to the table next week.

    But I look at this from a different standpoint. If Miami shows up, I really don't think it matters if Arizona shows up or not. Our offense can be borderline awesome when we execute and we know that Arizona's offensive line can't stop Wake, Suh and company. That's the main reason Arizona is where they currently are.

    I am not confident that we win this one because we don't know how well our team will rebound. But they HAVE TO WIN to keep the season alive, so I'm looking forward to see how they respond. I think our boys will earn the W.
     
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    'Zona will just call quick passes across the middle, and hit like, every TE, RB, and WR on the roster, and the waterboy, just like Baltimore did.
     
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  8. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I predict we lose to Arizona and sweep the East to put us at 10-6. Whether we make the playoffs or not I am thrilled with how this season turned out and am looking forward to building a defense that is Super Bowl worthy
     
  9. wpgfishfan

    wpgfishfan Member

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    So let's talk about tie-breakers- it all comes down to conference wins, the #2 criteria. Miami would be 8-5 in conference play, the Broncos would be 7-5. So we would take that final spot.




    That's wrong. We would both be 7-5 based on your scenario. Then common opponents which I believe we lose
     
  10. wpgfishfan

    wpgfishfan Member

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    In this scenario we win basically every tie breaker
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I didn't go into detail there at the end, but we'd lose out on the later tie-breakers.

    And yeah, it would be great to sweep the East, but that's a mighty tall accomplishment on the road in Buffalo. Arizona is the "least important" game of the four; but it just so happens that it's our next opponent and wins are golden at this point in the season.
     
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  12. Georgia Fin

    Georgia Fin Fin For Life

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    This roster has far exceeded my expectations this season especially with a rookie HC and new staff and scheme. With that being said, we are not a playoff team this year. I look forward to adding more pieces to the puzzle and making some real noise next year. This roster has talent, but it's paper thin on depth and our injuries have exposed us in every critical area so far. Sometimes you just have to look at things for how they are. I would rather build on the success of this year than to squeak into the playoffs and get destroyed on the national stage. The results would be about the same as me giving my keys to my 8 year old daughter and telling her to go for a spin in my truck. Neither are ready right now.
     
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  13. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think it comes down to NE and whether they are resting starters or not. I think AZ and NYJ are very winnable. At Buf we will probably not be favored. I think 9-7 is doable with 10-6 if everything goes right.

    This is of course assuming the same garbage we saw Sunday gets fixed, if fixable.
     
  14. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, hard to predict wins and losses until we see how the defense is adjusted. Looks like Kiko may be out, so the idea that we simply CAN NOT fix the LB corp is very real.
     
  15. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    I think Miami could go 10-6 even though 9-7 is most likely. you need 10.

    Dolphins fans have to now become Patriots fans though - they play the Ravens and Broncos. Miami fans should hope the Steelers win the AFC North, as a wild card matchup at the Ravens would probably just be another embarrassing disaster. They might have a chance against Pitt, even though this time it'd be on the road and with healthy Roethlisberger - and we just saw how the more talented Giants fared in Pitt. Odds are the AFC South team won't get the 3 seed, and odds are Miami wouldn't be able to get the 4 seed unless they win 11. Clearly playing the AFC South winner would be the most ideal.

    But, see how they fare against Arizona first. They're tough, but its at home, and the Dolphins need to win after Sunday's abysmal performance.
     
  16. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    We'll most likely go 8-8, but 9-7 is a possibility. We aren't making the playoffs.
     
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  17. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    If it's a must win game, I think we lose. When has RT ever won a game that really mattered?
     
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  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The way I see it, playoff experience in any sport is huge whether you go all the way or lose in the first round. If we get Howard and Pouncey back this week, that fills two holes that have been sorely missed...but another opens with Alonzo. I mean, the guy had surgery on his thumb yesterday; that has to throw off your game considerably. So I don't even know if I want him to start.

    I still think these last four weeks are crucial for Gase and this club in general since it's what they will build off next season. Tannehill needs that prime time experience as well; he has struggled when it's mattered in December. So if we can beat NE in a game that matters in week 17 and then make a little noise in the Wild Card game, that sets the tone for an exciting 2017 with Jones and others returning.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    We've already beaten the Bills and Jets this season, plus we've toppled the Pats in our home three years in a row. Arizona is also banged up (like us) on both sides of the ball and they haven't played well on the road. So it's hard to accept anyone that says we don't have any chance against these teams. Will they be tough games? YES. Are they unwinnable? NO.

    Again though, I'm focusing on this team winning 6 of 7 with a depleted roster. You're focused on us being 0-1 with some close victories against lousy teams. It's all perspective.
     
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  20. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    Id love to say we go 4-0 down the stretch, I just don't see it we will get the jets im about 85% sure I think we lost to them in 2013 w geno smith when we needed one win to get in the playoffs I could be mistaken but I think we lost to the bills and jets and Pittsburgh got in off like a 2% chance to make it. RT demeanor will be the key this Sunday and the remaining 4 games, if the showing is poor then kiss winning more than 2 games goodbye. If he is shaken still by getting "no Vaseline'd" by the ravens then I don't see him turning it around for 3 other games. Buffalo is playing well and we all seen what McCoy did in the snow last year so if the weather is bad he could run all over us, not to mention kaepernick had a field day running the ball against us and taylor is no slouch at running. What I would like to see is, Vance calling more package blitz disguised blitz's and man coverage. As well as calling plays to make RT change progressions down the field from the pocket to see his feet work and decision making. Just to see if we have something to work with, if he still cannot put together a drive then some decisions are clearly needed. We all know he is good on play action and roll outs, against good defenses those wont work all game.

    However if RT s***s the bed in 3 of 4 then what? I believe these 4 games win or loss will tell if he's kept for next yr and his big contract.

    But who am I besides a couch coach!!!
     
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  21. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I'm focusing on how our defense has performed. Even in wins, they haven't performed well. They've made key turnovers, which often saved the game, but as far as yards given up and time spent on the field, they aren't doing so well. You can't count on turnovers saving you every game, or a kick return or a punt return. Eventually, you have to be able to play solid football. Our defense has not done that.
     
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  22. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Funny how people can say negative things about the defense, OL, receivers, coaches, play calling, running backs, cheerleaders, the weather, and those are all ok.
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    For the season we are +1 in turnovers, which means that it's certainly not a key metric in victories. For instance, Pittsburgh is +4 in that category and the Bills are +6, yet we beat them both anyway. The Cards are +1 like us, while the Jets are -15 and New England is +5.

    Also, we've had 1 kick and 1 punt return for a TD this season...that's below average. Miami is giving up 23.2 points per game as well, which is 18th in the league. Last week was well outside our normal defensive stance- we were 11th in the league in points given before that meltdown.

    Of everything you've quoted, there's not a single metric that points to a definitive victory or a cause for concern. We are middle of the pack in every single one of those statistics, despite playing 2nd stringers against most team's starters. That tells me this team is playing above their combined "talent level", while the Bills, Cardinals and Jets are not.

    Put all of that together and it says last week was not a sign of the apocalypse...it was just a bad week.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You want to do this on a game-by-game basis, not over a season. And when you do that, turnovers are a great predictor of whether we won or lost.

    Except for the Seattle and Cleveland games, the team that won the turnover battle won the game. The only two games where both sides had the same number of turnovers was for the Buffalo and Rams games. So excluding those two, that means that 8 of 10 times the winner of the turnover battle won the game. That's a very good predictor.


    Actually, I'll give you an even better predictor, one that predicts 11 out of 12 of our games: passing TD-INT for Tannehill. Except for the Pittsburgh game where Tannehill had 0 TD's and 0 INT's, EVERY game we won he had more TD's than INT's, and in every game we lost he didn't.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's interesting, but last week is still an anomaly due to the high number of turnovers. I'm not looking at stats but it seems like Miami had three...two fumbles and an interception? Or did we only get 2? Tannehill also had 3 picks; that's just not typical for our offense or really in any NFL game.

    I see your point though; Tannehill's performance essentially decides the winner. I accredit that to a receiving corp that takes advantage of opportunities.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Our defense got 2, a fumble and an INT. And they got 3 INT's.

    So what's the average per game? Without number crunching myself here's a link for 2013 averages:
    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64441086/nfl-statistical-analysis-average-nfl-game

    "There will be 2.3 fumbles, but only 1.2 of those fumbles (50.7 percent) will be lost (because fumbles are recovered randomly, as these numbers demonstrate). Two interceptions will be thrown."


    So basically there are on average 3.2 turnovers per game, meaning the total of 5 was well more than average.
     
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