Well, I like Lexxy and think he would be fine as the #1 Rb, but think he needs luck to be that guy but the same thing happened with Peyton Hillis, he was the #3 back in Cleveland behind Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison, Hardesty tore a ACL in the preseason and Harrison fell out of favor with Mangini and would up being traded to the Eagles clearing a path for Hillis to Start.

 

Nah.

 

Pass...well, it might help us in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

 

Why suck for luck when we can win with Orton..:shifty:

 

Fvck the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and fvck sucking for Luck.

 

Besides we are that awkward stage where we could have Jay Fiedler at Qb and win 6 to 8 games, they have added enough talent to do so.

 

I wonder how many of these "lets lose games on purpose", suck 4 Luck bafoons, have even watched him play?

 

I'm far from an expert on Luck. Many people seem to consider him at least the best QB prospect since Peyton. My thought is after the 2011 season and by the time the next draft rolls around it is very possible another QB could bypass him. Maybe not but certainly not something to discount totally out of hand. One could come out of nowhere like Newton in 2010. How many fans even knew who Cam Newton was 365 days ago?

 

Just idly curious, and it is certainly not anything by which to judge him, but I wondered what Lex's ethnic mix is. I thought he may be part Native American. I found this old video of when he was drafted and apparently he has a black father and white mother. Though being from Montana either of his parents could more likely than usual have some Native American blood in their family tree. I thought it would have been kind of cool if he had been part Blackfoot or Flathead. I don't know of any members of either of those tribes that played in the NFL.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hfev2IuUSNA

 

If Lex is our starting RB, we're in trouble. happy with him as our backup RB because he's young and cheap with good size.

 

Lex Hilliard is nothing special. My comment was more in jest, but I guess it was taken seriously...

Either way, banking on Lex Hilliard to be ultra-productive all of the sudden is probably not going to help the Miami Dolphins win football games. To win now, you go out and get a DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, or some other proven runner. You don't count on Lex Hilliard to suddenly get it. If you do, well, you're probably looking at the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, which was what I meant in my original post.

Personally, I'm more anti-Sparano and pretty neutral on Chad Henne. The last thing I want is to be mired at 7-9 and stuck in neutral.

 

Why waste a pick(s) on Orton when we already have Chad Henne?

 

The only thing Kyle Orton brings thats better than Henne is the deep ball if that. If Henne can improve his accuracy on the deep ball, its pointless to get Orton

 

Hmm Td to Int ratio, QBR, etc is also in there somewhere.

 

Because Orton is better then Henne.

 

Careful Padre. Some on this board will try and tell you TD / INT ratio is a meaningless stat.

 

3 yr track record pretty much means you know what you are getting, Henne has had 2 yrs of negative production, it is what it is.

 

True. My opinion, is that TD / INT ratio correlates very highly with success/failure for any QB. Pretty common sense if you ask me because TDs and INTs are such game changers. But some Henne defenders have glossed over his TD/INT ratio as if it didn't exist. Especially when comparing him to other QBs.

 

True, my one caveat is Henne was extraordinarily unlucky in 2010, 1 dropped int chance by defenders? Tipped passes, int's that weren't int's etc.

Will say while I think he was unlucky, good players just find a way to get it done, that is one of the reasons why imho they should be shopping for a qb who can step in and make things happen.

Funny thing is, there is a "every one of Marino's 1984 Td's" video on Youtube, if you watch you see Marino throwing the ball to guys who were covered, Marino was tossing the ball into the tightest of windows, if you watch the Pennington performance vs the Jest in NJ in 2008, to win the division, Penny was throwing to guys who were covered in the endzone, Ginn and Fasano were both covered he just fit the ball in there, something Henne just really does not do very often.

 

What was Orton's production in Chicago before he played for a good offensive coordinator

 

In 08 18 td to 12 int's
In 05 9 td's to 13 int's

 

Maybe there is hope for Henne's 3rd year

 

Kyle Orton and Drew Brees both had crappy first two seasons too you know.

 

Other than Terry Bradshaw, I doubt any HOF QB stunk worse in his first two seasons than Troy Aikman. 55 and 66 QB ratings. 9 TDs and 18 ints, followed by 11 TDs and 18 ints. The 2nd season he had his entire posse in place too, Smith, Irvin, Novacek and Moose. No Harper yet, but he had KMart who was pretty good.

I remember as many people screaming bust from the rooftops about Aikman then, as are doing it about Henne now.

 

I like Lex too. However, the Dolphins were adamant in moving up to select Daniel Thomas. I think that is a signal towards the Dolphins view of him. They've talked about speed and big chunk yardage all offseason. So, I can't see us going into 2011 with two plodders at RB, which is what we had in 2010.

 

Hilliard is good in spells. Certainly not a guy who can carry a major load. But, if we assume we don't resign RB or RW, or bring in a big name free agent (DeAngelo Williams) then Hilliard will get some serious time in the backfield.

 

That is the thing, how do we know? He looked good in 09, in 10 Sparano sat him, why I have no idea, not even sure if Sparano was behind Lex sitting.

He catches the ball well for a big back, does have some gettyup, for whatever reason he just did not play, which is kind of the norm in Miami.

For all of the talk of the #2 Te being crap when they actually threw the ball to Shuler he produced, then they froze him again, two catches for 44 yds vs the Lions then he was just no longer a factor..

 

Well I'm not closing the curtain on Henne, would point out that even the Cowboys acquired insurance for Troy Aikman in the form of Steve Walsh.

 

Jake Locker was considered to be the "next big thing" at quarterback just a year ago as well.

 

Luck's been playing at a high level since his redshirt freshman season. That said, I think there's a chance someone like Matt Barkley at USC could overtake him. But, Luck's floor is probably still higher than the ceiling of a Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert at the NFL level. I'd be willing to take that risk and do what it takes to get him. I've seen him play quite a few times, and he's been the same, steady player each and every time. I'd take him starting as the Dolphins QB even without training camp time, over Chad Henne and I'd venture to say Luck's floor as a player is probably pretty close to where Henne's absolute ceiling would be. If Henne goes out and lights the NFL on fire, cool, we have a quarterback. But, nothing about his two seasons as a starter makes me very inclined to think he'll go out and shut everyone up. He plays well at times, he plays badly at times, but from what I've seen, when the bad starts going, it keeps going and going while the good comes and goes.

Just a clip of Luck for those who haven't seen it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQ-a-N9Y5mc The throw he makes at :38 is damn impressive.

 

I don't know if it's safe to use a small production size when evaluating Mickey Shuler. Yes, he made a few plays, but how many times was his number called? Could he get open frequently? Could he win his matchup consistently? Judging by the amount of plays he got and chances he received, I assume that answer is no.

You can use that same argument for Hilliard, too. Only thing I can think of is that it might have been a Joey Porter/Jason Taylor/Cameron Wake type dilemma. You've got two older, past productive guys that make more money, so they play more. But even then, Wake got onto the field and make plays when he did. This past year, when they needed a spark they went to Patrick Cobbs, not Lex Hilliard.

 

By the way, we're not getting Andrew Luck. I don't think we're picking in the Top 10 next year which is year you will need to be to ensure yourself to get him.

 

Atlanta was able to move up pretty easily from 27th to 6th, so I don't think it matters all that much where your initial pick is. If a player is worth moving up to get, and Andrew Luck certainly is (hell the Jets moved up to get Sanchez 5th overall I believe) then it should be done. Who knows how this team will do next year. It wouldn't shock me if we picked in the top 5. It wouldn't shock me if we picked 25th.

I think Atlanta sighting the value in Julio Jones pulled the trigger and gave up a 2nd this year (swapped 1st rounders), and a 1st and 4th next year - I'd pay that price for Luck or Barkley. However, if Henne turns it around, Miami wouldn't have to pay that price. But, if as some have insinuated in this thread, we're rolling with Lex Hilliard and Henne continues the play he showed the final 4-5 weeks of 2010, that price won't be as high.

I'm a much bigger proponent for Luck and Barkley than any QB that was in the 2011 class, hence why I'm glad we didn't take one (and had Pouncey or Ingram in my avatar for months prior to the draft). I think Henne deserves another shot, in a new offense, but with the lockout and what he's shown over his 2 years as a starter, it's hard for me to expect a dramatic improvement - the film doesn't lie.

 

Yep, not that I think Lexxy is some gem waiting to be mined, but this sort of thing has happened before.

 

A thread about a running back turns into a discussion about a quarterback? Classic. Should be thankful that the quarterback in question is Andrew Luck and not Chad Henne, though.

Anyway...problem for Lex is we don't know what he can do. He got zero opportunities in 2010. He should be in the best shape of his career, at the peak of it, past knee problems a distant memory, in great shape, etc...but since we never got to see him in action we don't know what is there. I know he showed some intriguing things in 2009, a high percentage of broken tackles.

Honestly we talk about the passing game a lot and Chad Henne and what Daboll brings to the table there but I'm also concerned about the running game. It depends on what they do in free agency, things could change if they make a play for a DeAngelo Williams type. But otherwise, this ground game could be just as bad in 2011 as it was in 2010...or worse.

Every indication is that the Dolphins will be switching to zone blocking a lot more on runs. In fact I think one player even said so publicly. Is this for the best? I'm trying to think about it and the answer is mixed. Best for Mike Pouncey? Absolutely with a capital 'A'. Best for John Jerry? Surprisingly, yeah I actually think he could benefit from it. Best for Vernon Carey? That's a No with a capital 'N'. Best for Richie Incognito? I don't see it. Best for Jake Long? Surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly if you evaluated him a lot coming out of college, I would say no. Jake Long can do anything he wants to on the football field. But that doesn't mean it's the best thing for him, or that he'll continue to look like the top left tackle in the league at whichever task you set for him. He's top in the league at what the Dolphins have been asking him to do. Is he going to look like the best in the league as a zone blocker? I'm not so sure, and I think not.

And even taking all that aside, that's all long term. Short term...there's a strong record of needing some time to really develop that way of playing among your OLs.

In the meanwhile, you've got a rookie late 2nd rounder leading this attack. He's SUITED for the style, no argument there, I said from the moment we drafted him he reminds me of Arian Foster and has that kind of ceiling. And, even better, the tailback position probably does have the shortest learning curve of all the positions. Yet, despite that, there IS a perceptible learning curve. My own long term studies tallying tens of thousands of carries suggests that there is a huge jump in production and efficiency (ypc) from first year to second year. Yeah, the position may have a short learning curve, and therefore you get a few guys making a big impact right away as rookies...but A) Is Daniel Thomas one of those few guys, and B) What is 'a big impact'?

Take LaDainian Tomlinson. Doesn't get much better than his career, right? Technically made a 'big impact' as a rookie with 1200+ rushing yards. But he did it at 3.6 yards per carry, on a team that finished 5-11, closing out the season with 9 straight losses featuring an average of 16.2 points per game in those losses. Now, if you really look at Cleveland last year, even with Peyton Hillis running wild, they were middle of the league in rushing yards per game. They were 20th in the league in yards per carry.

So do I think that 10 games into the 2011 season we could be looking at our running attack and seeing backs that combine for like 3.7 yards per carry, on an attack that just isn't working and has yet to gel?

You bet I do.

 

Its a worthy discussion but I have to pretty strenously disagree with the assessments of the Tackles. I think there's a good chance that the edges of the offense in the run game are a big strength.

Most of Jake Long's tenure in Michigan was in a primarily zone blocking scheme. He got drafted #1 overall on the back of playing in this scheme.

If Carey is healthy, there's not a problem. The idea that you can't have bigger, more powerful players in a zone blocking scheme is kind of applying what the Broncos did to the entire concept which isn't really valid. Putting Carey in a position where he is going to be able to make a block with a head of steam on an undersized edge defender isn't really going to be problematic. Look at Damien Woody in the Jets offense, whose run game is likely to look quite a bit like the Dolphins. He's been dominating, and athletically if you think he's better than Carey, well, no sure what to tell you.

That's not to mention Anthony Fasano. Putting Anthony Fasano next to Carey or Long becomes more of a dominating front in a zone scheme especially when a significant amount of runs are going to be right behind the Tight End. If anything I think a big failing in the Dolphins run game the last couple years was not going more behind of slightly off the tackles than inside or way outside.

 

If he is our starter were in big trouble,Lets crab an fa or keep the cheapest Rb we have