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Make the pick at #1 and trade the player.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Trackstar, Apr 4, 2008.

  1. Trackstar

    Trackstar Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    An interesting scenario was brough up on NFL Network the other day by the draft experts. The best way for the Miami Dolphins can trade out of the top pick is to agree in principle to a contract with a player before the draft and then trade him on draft day.

    There are a few teams who are enamored with certaian players at the top of this draft. Yet they are not willing to trade into the #1 slot because they simply don't know how high the price tag will be for the #1 overall pick. If the they know going into the trade that the contract is somewhat reasonable and affordable, that team just might pull the trigger.

    If we signed Ryan to a good deal the day before the draft, do you think Atlanta makes the trade with us? I think they might.
     
  2. jason8er

    jason8er Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    Well, the Manning/Rivers deal a few years ago says that it's not out of the question.
     
  3. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    why would they do that when they can have him when they pick for a alot less
     
  4. Ultra

    Ultra Lazy

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    I don't see this happening. Just seems like a lot of work, and I think most teams would rather negotiate their own contracts.
     
  5. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Guys, the pick will be ours...there's not going to be anyone to trade with. If there were the Eli, Rivers, Big Ben draft, maybe, but there just isn't anyone who jumps out as a special pick.
     
  6. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    Myself, I think they're just making idle conversation because this is a slow time of the year. The price for a QB picked #1 overall would be based on what Russell was signed to + a certain amount due to inflation and the increase in the salary cap. So everyone has a pretty good idea of what it's going to cost - it's just that they don't want to pay it. The trade itself wouldn't save them anything, either. The Giants still had to give up quite a bit in the trade for Manning.
     
  7. Trackstar

    Trackstar Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    Well I was really just using him as an example. It could be any player that we draft at number 1. Maybe Dorsey or one of the Long's.
     
  8. jason8er

    jason8er Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    Yeah, that's what I've been thinking for some time now. So much so, that I wouldn't be at all suprised if Atlanta doesn't even take Ryan at #3.
     
  9. Trackstar

    Trackstar Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    Glenn Dorsey.
     
  10. jason8er

    jason8er Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    I think he may have meant QB.
     
  11. Trackstar

    Trackstar Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    I know what he meant. My point is there is a special player in this draft. It doesn't always have to be a QB.
     
  12. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Austin, no matter who we pick, they will get first pick money and be no bargain for any other team.. there is no clever way to set aside the BIG money the first pick is going to get.
     
  13. Trackstar

    Trackstar Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    The system needs an overhaul. Rookies at the top end of the draft get waaaaay to much money. I think there would be a LOT more trading on draft day if the financial side was more balanced and fair.
     
    Themole, jason8er and Bpk like this.
  14. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Any team we try to do that to (threaten to sign their player unless they trade with us) will probably call our bluff and say "Go ahead. Sign him."

    Just my opinon.

    I hope I'm wrong and you're right. lol.

    Bpk
     
  15. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    ATTENTION DISCOUNT SHOPPERS - BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL IN AISLE #1


    Whether people like it or not (I hate it) we have a financially dysfunctional rookie contract system.

    Nonetheless, if we *discount* the trade we can make it happen.

    A few years ago, conventionally, that #1 pick was considered to be worth 3,000 points. Let's say we had traded down only so far as Atlanta's #3 pick, worth 2,200 points. Atlanta would have to make up another 800 points. So Atlanta would have to offer their #3 pick (2,200 points), #34 pick (Rd. 2, 560 pts), and their #68 pick (Rd 3, 250 pts).

    For reference, here are the conventional "trade value chart" and the 2008 Draft order:
    http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html
    http://football.about.com/od/nfldraft/a/nfldraftorder.htm

    That trade would total as follows: Miami 3,000 pts for Atlanta 3,100 pts. Great, huh? Except Atlanta would never do it, because of the obscene guaranteed money at #1 being even higher than the obscene guaranteed money at #3. You'd need a sure fire blue chip Pro-Bowler you were 1000% certain about to have enough conviction to move up to #1 at that expense (picks and $$). This year's crop is close, but not quite there.

    Because the system didn't take into account that rookie contracts would get stupid-big, especially in the top few slots, that #1 slot's contract is a big disincentive (therefore *devaluing factor*) to teams thinking of moving up.

    The answer is obvious (to me, anyways), we have to give our "3,000" point slot away for less than 3,000 points. I would quite happily trade our #1 overall to Atlanta for their #3, #48 (their lower 2nd round pick, which they got from Houston), and #138 (Rd. 5, to replace the pick we lost on the Trent Green scam, I mean trade). That's 2,200+420+37=2,657 points.

    Look, the trade value chart is out of date. It only takes talent into account, but not monetary the effect on the franchise, which then, in turn, affects how much OTHER talent you can later afford to sign.

    I believe we are better off getting a #3 pick (for less than a #1), plus a 2nd and 5th rounder than picking at #1. We are a team in dire need of a high volume of quality players, not one super-star. Getting two high picks, plus one low pick is better than staying at number one. Besides, as high as #3 we would still be able to get one of Chris Long, jake Long, Glenn Dorsey or Matt Ryan anyways.

    Of course, Ireland and Parcells may already be thinking this, but cannot let other teams know we would 'sell cheap" because it would drive down the offers even MORE.

    In fact, now that I think about it, if we can benefit that much by trading down to #3, imagine what we could get by trading down even further. We could potentially get several high-round picks in this draft AND next year's draft.

    Look, I know getting the number one pick is sexy, especially for Dolphins fans who endured a long, tough season being branded as nearly-historic losers (which we aren't!). But, the reality is we are rebuilding this franchise and need as many draft picks as possible to do it.

    It's a win-win situation if another team gets a great deal on our #1 pick, AND we get a boatload of draft picks for it. So what if the out-dated draft trade chart says its not an 'equal' trade.

    One more point: the draft trade chart has always been intrinsically flawed since draft-class talent pools are *not* consistent year-to-year, so one year's value chart really doesn't apply to another year's talent crop. Does anyone here think the #1 pick of Alex Smith represents even value to a Peyton Manning? And I don't mean knowing what we know *now*. I mean, even on those draft days people could have told you Peyton was a much better prospect than Smith. Really, a new chart should be made *every year* to reflect relative talent levels.

    So, enough clinging to the "trade value chart". it is inaccurate, and only relevant as a loose guide or starting point to negotiations. At the end of the day, we should offer a nice discount for any team willing to take our #1 pick and then enjoy the lower-priced, highly-talented basketful of groceries we'll get to take home for Bill to put in our fridge.

    Bpk
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2008
  16. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    For anyone wanting to see the NFL NETWORK Video that trackstar is referring to here it is

    http://www.nfl.com/videos;jsessionid=ED985F22530F08563CF80FCB7F7B692B?videoId=09000d5d807914af

    Essentially what they are saying is everyone now believes we are drafting Jake Long. What they are speculating on is that Parcells has tried the Ryan and Chris Long smokescreens and found no takers. Jake Long is being bandied about in the media now to see if St Louis or Atlanta will move up so that they can get Dorsey or Jake who it appears are the two players both teams are targeting

    Also on a sidenote, they are pedicting that if we take Jake, Chris Long will slide to the Jets and the Patriots will grab Gholston
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2008
  17. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box


    This may all be random speculation, but if our front office is guiding any of the ever-shifting media hubbub from player-to-player, I have to say: Bill Parcells is a bloody poker genius.

    If.

    Bpk
     
  18. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    lol. if jake long doesnt work maybe we put it out that we're all about leodis mckelvin :lol:
     
  19. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    I heard Bill mistakenly floated the rumour that we just had Mario Danelo in for an interview.


    funny thing is... the media is running with it.

    Bpk


    p.s. - okay, my apologies... that is borderline bad taste
     
  20. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    oopha
     
  21. DOLPHAN1

    DOLPHAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

    i think it was Charlie Casserly that was talking about this and he was using Jake Long as an example. in the end he still believes that we will have to make a pick at #1 anyway.
     
  22. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Not to me...still questions about his health. With the way that he plays, I think he'll be very injury prone at this level...he's already somewhat that way in college...
     
  23. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Using Updated PFT Chart

    So, let's re-examine my earlier idea of trading our #1 pick for LESS than the value indicated by the old Trade Value chart.

    Here is what I wrote:


    So, my argument was that with the old trade chart, Atlanta would be expected to give us the #3 (1st), #34 (2nd) and #68 (3rd) to equal the vaue of our #1 pick.

    I said there was no way they'd do it because that's BAAD value in today's NFL, considering the contract size of a #1 and lack of a clear, dominant #1 pick this year.

    Instead I proposed trading their #3 (1st), $48 (late 2nd) and #138 (5th) to us for our #1.
    I felt that represented a better deal for the Falcons, and maybe doable.


    Now, according to the new PFT trade chart, here is what represents eual value for our pick:

    Miami's #1 for Atlanta's #3 (1st) and #138 (5th).

    That's Miami's 1000 point value for their 991 point value. Thing is, the chart makes sense there. how big is the talent gap between Dorsey, Jake Long, Chris Long, and Matt Ryan? Not much, if any. Plus, the person who moves up pays significantly more for the services of a player who is not significantly better, imo. The #3 and #138 are probably about right, though it SUCKS.

    I woudn't do that deal. i would want, at least, Atlanta's #3 and their late second round pick.

    That is as low a deal as I think is worth it to us.

    Bpk
     

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