Making a Case for Ryan Tannehill

"cbrad wrote:

Here's a fun little stat.

After adjusting to a common year the worst rating Tannehill ever had was his first game in the NFL while his 2nd worst rating ever is possibly his last game in the NFL lol. And they're nearly identical. His first game ever he had a 39.0 rating which in 2017 would be 39.59, while today he had a 43.4 rating which in 2017 is 40.09 (unadjusted today was his 4th worst). Just found that a bit comical.

Only you would normalize both games against the 2017 curve. LOL, classic math nerd stuff right there. =)

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

I don’t like the old, crumogeonly ones who are beholden to the old racist ways. No.

You ever meet
Bill Polian or is he racist because he doesn't like Lamar Jackson? Lol.

"IdrA wrote:

Hopefully it's the Jets. Then we can beef up our DL and crush Tannehill. It will feel so much better seeing it done to him by a Dolphin than getting it done to him as a Dolphin.

The only afc east team who might be interested would be new england. Them denver, jacksonville, giants might go after him.

"djphinfan wrote:

Now is there anyone left that wants to make a case?? Holy cow..

I'll give him a case of champagne to celebrate his departure.

"adamprez2003 wrote:

You ever meet
Bill Polian or is he racist because he doesn't like Lamar Jackson? Lol.

Never met him.

But my grandma went to middle school with him and she said he used to drop n bombs all the time.

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

Never met him.

But my grandma went to middle school with him and she said he used to drop n bombs all the time.

Not good!

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree. BUT here's the part you're still not calculating for. 30th in offense and defense doesn't equal 7 or 8 wins. Let's try this mathematically to see if it's easier for you to follow.

Baseline- (30th offense) + (30th defense) = .0468 win percentage on the year (let's just call today a tie for now to get 7.5 wins)

Question- what does our win percentage equal if we're 20th in offense and defense? Or even average at 16th? When you look at historical records, you're already looking at an anomaly in the 2018 Miami Dolphins. So I believe it is cherry picking until you can explain how a horrible team on paper wins 8 games...including against some very good playoff teams.

I think a lot of this 7 wins are due to how different we play at home compared to on the road.

At home we're 6-2 and are 18th in scoring offense while we're 21st in scoring defense. In those 6 home wins we have the 11th best scoring offense.

But we absolutely suck on the road with the 27th scoring offense and 29th scoring defense.

Unfortunately we're going to have to play road games every single year for the foreseeable future.

**This is based on week 1-16, I did not include week 17.

"adamprez2003 wrote:

Bill Polian. Says there will be a number of teams lining up to get Tannehill as their starter if we release him

LOL, not buying that. There might be 6-7 teams who would even consider him id guess with zero really beating down a door for him.

He should take about 12M and goto the Redskins after we cut his sorry ass.

Tannehill said the team battled their way back...

42-17. Huh?

"Fin-O wrote:

LOL, not buying that. There might be 6-7 teams who would even consider him id guess with zero really beating down a door for him.

He should take about 12M and goto the Redskins after we cut his sorry ***.

The redskins have 70 million guaranteed tied to Alex Smith. Unless Tannehill is willing to play for 3 million theyre not going to sign any quarterback for big money. Theyre going for a rookie.

"mooseguts wrote:

I think a lot of this 7 wins are due to how different we play at home compared to on the road.

At home we're 6-2 and are 18th in scoring offense while we're 21st in scoring defense. In those 6 home wins we have the 11th best scoring offense.

But we absolutely suck on the road with the 27th scoring offense and 29th scoring defense.

Unfortunately we're going to have to play road games every single year for the foreseeable future.

**This is based on week 1-16, I did not include week 17.

Gase has been WAY better than expected at home vs. away.

That shows you win% for home vs. away given the number of wins a team had in a season, starting from 1978 where the league went to 16 teams. The average win% difference between home and away for a team that wins anywhere from 6-10 games is about 17%.

After today Gase's home win% is 66.67% (16 out of 24) and his away win% is 29.17% (7 out of 24). The difference is 37.5% which is WAY more than the expected 17%. So yes Gase is way better at home and way worse away than expected. It is worth noting though that this is independent of the greater than expected wins Gase has given point differential. So those are two separate traits of a Gase-led team.

"cbrad wrote:

Gase has been WAY better than expected at home vs. away.

That shows you win% for home vs. away given the number of wins a team had in a season, starting from 1978 where the league went to 16 teams. The average win% difference between home and away for a team that wins anywhere from 6-10 games is about 17%.

After today Gase's home win% is 66.67% (16 out of 24) and his away win% is 29.17% (7 out of 24). The difference is 37.5% which is WAY more than the expected 17%. So yes Gase is way better at home and way worse away than expected. It is worth noting though that this is independent of the greater than expected wins Gase has given point differential. So those are two separate traits of a Gase-led team.

So what I am taking away from this is, we need two head coaches. Gase can coach the team when we have home games, and the other coach, with the better away record, can coach the team on the road. Combined, we make the playoffs. See? Problem solved. Next? ;-)

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

So what I am taking away from this is, we need two head coaches. Gase can coach the team when we have home games, and the other coach, with the better away record, can coach the team on the road. Combined, we make the playoffs. See? Problem solved. Next? ;-)

LMAO!

"Vertical Limit wrote:

The redskins have 70 million guaranteed tied to Alex Smith. Unless Tannehill is willing to play for 3 million theyre not going to sign any quarterback for big money. Theyre going for a rookie.

Well if Ryan thinks he will get offered anything north of 13-14M I think he is going to be sadly mistaken. I cant think of a team that desperate and that stupid.

"Fin-O wrote:

Well if Ryan thinks he will get offered anything north of 13-14M I think he is going to be sadly mistaken. I cant think of a team that desperate and that stupid.

I almost have a feeling that he's done in the NFL. He's already said he doesn't want to leave Miami and wants to end his career there. Maybe he shocks all of us and takes a 3-year contract to stay at home at $3-5M per...

"adamprez2003 wrote:

Bill Polian. Says there will be a number of teams lining up to get Tannehill as their starter if we release him

Lol, I’m curious what starting QBs would he supercede?

"djphinfan wrote:

Lol, I’m curious what starting QBs would he supercede?

Bortles. Jacksonville has a good defense and Tannehill > Bortles. It's conceivable they say that for them the best strategy is to get an average vet QB and try to get some key pieces on offense in a short time while their defense is top 5. It's really hard to keep an entire unit good for a long time because you inevitably lose key players so I could see how getting Tannehill and building around him rather than the higher risk play of drafting a QB would be a smart play for the Jaguars. Can't think of any other team where I would say that though (would have said it for Houston before they got Watson).

"adamprez2003 wrote:

Bill Polian. Says there will be a number of teams lining up to get Tannehill as their starter if we release him

Blaine Gabbert is starting a meaningful football game in 2018. Teams "lining up" for Tannehill isn't saying much good about Tannehill.

"texanphinatic wrote:

Blaine Gabbert is starting a meaningful football game in 2018. Teams "lining up" for Tannehill isn't saying much good about Tannehill.

only in bizarro Dolfan world would people think they know more than people who earned money at the sport

"adamprez2003 wrote:

only in bizarro Dolfan world would people think they know more than people who earned money at the sport

Rex Ryan tattoos mark Sanchez’s name on him
Please, some coaches can’t project talent from college to pro..

Prez You do realize the qbs we passed on or could of moved up to get (not a lot) while this incompetent personnel Dept doubled down on a flawed below average qb

Gase using Gesicki as a blocker in line

"adamprez2003 wrote:

only in bizarro Dolfan world would people think they know more than people who earned money at the sport

Good point. I forget those people earning money are never wrong and cannot possibly be challenged on an opinion in a game driven by opinions and pleasing a fanbase full of them. MY BAD!

"adamprez2003 wrote:

Bill Polian. Says there will be a number of teams lining up to get Tannehill as their starter if we release him

Lauren is that you?

"adamprez2003 wrote:

only in bizarro Dolfan world would people think they know more than people who earned money at the sport

"texanphinatic wrote:

Good point. I forget those people earning money are never wrong and cannot possibly be challenged on an opinion in a game driven by opinions and pleasing a fanbase full of them. MY BAD!

The pros certainly KNOW more than most everyone here and of course have insider info, but that's a very different claim than saying they make better decisions than the "crowd" does. In fact there are many examples of cases where it's been demonstrated that the "crowd" makes better decisions than most experts. Prediction markets are a good example.

And of course there are many cases where the crowd does worse (science is one example lol).

In this case however there are many posters here who realized earlier than our "experts" that Philbin wasn't the answer and that Tannehill wasn't the answer (assuming Tannehill is no longer our QB of the future). I'm also pretty sure that list will extend to Gase, but we'll have to wait till Ross fires him before proclaiming that. Anyway, as texanphinatic says.. the people being paid to make decisions are often wrong so one shouldn't assume they must be better at player evals or strategy for improving the team than the fans are (just look at the draft!).

.. btw one clear example of this was when everyone wanted Brees drafted but those paid to make decisions drafted Jamar Fletcher!

7 more years!! 7 more years!! 7 more years!!

"Sceeto wrote:

7 more years!! 7 more years!! 7 more years!!

17 years hopefully!