Here's what the %s should have told him: Even with a 41% chance of making a 1st down by going for it, it would have increased their chance of winning more than kicking a FG. Lucky for us he didn't go for it and their kicker pulled a Carpenter (that's a bit unfair but I couldn't help it). I haven't been thrilled with all of Philbin's decisions. But just eyeballing it I think he's been ok, probably better than Sparano was. To maximize our chances of winning games in the future I think he's going to have to get more aggressive with his playcalling, especially in these types of situations.
My speculation is that they don't want Tanny throwing as much as he did in the Arizona game. And that's because he's a rookie and will make a mistake eventually. Also I don't think they fully trust the oline, and when they make a mistake it will cause problems for Tanny. We saw what pressure did to Dalton. He looked pretty inaccurate when he didn't have a clean pocket. I think they are coddling Tanny early so that he doesn't get rattled and to diminish the possibility of a turnover. So yeah, that kind of is what a Sparano coached team would do.
Yeah im getting confused with everyone else post here. I agree Lewis should have went for it, and I think they would have converted. Settling for the field goal, even if they made it was not worth it. We got lucky they decided to kick it, because I think they would have scored.
I was questioning how Marvin Lewis has a job honestly. It made absolutely no sense within the context of the game.
Misunderstood. Yeah we were. I hope Phibin is more of a Sean Payton than a Tony Sparano. Most coaches are way too conservative.
I couldn't believe he kicked it there. The weird thing is that he went for it on a 4th and 2 earlier in the game and got it, and I thought that was a good call based on where they were on the field.
Watched the game with a Bengals fan who was horrified his coach didn't go for it. I was shocked and happy.
Even without the help of statistics and probabilities this should have been a fairly obvious call to go for it. Whether you make or miss the FG, the only thing that happens if you don't go for it is you give the other team the ball with 3 minutes left and the lead. How you can think that is a good thing is beyond me. Even if you had a great defense it doesn't make a lot of sense. You (generally) have to possess the ball in order to score. Understanding that should change the way coaches call games beyond situations like this one. We should be valuing possession of the ball more than we do. That should mean punting less often than we do.
I don't think it was the wrong call to kick the FG. The wrong call was not going for 2. We have a good defense. You gotta take the points while you can. There's a few other scenarios that could of played out where Lewis looks like an idiot for not kicking the FG. It's a damned if you do and damned if you don't league. Your players execute, you're genius. They don't, you dun goofed.
