Miami Dolphins better hope Chad Henne becomes an elite passer

But Drew Brees looked like this his first two seasons...

356 Atts, 205 Completions, 57.6 %, 32.4 Attempts per game, 191.6 yds a game, 11 TD's, 15 Ints, 67.5 Rating....

By the way...that was his SECOND YEAR as a starter....2003.

His first year was...

526 attempts, 320 Comp, 60.8 %, 32.9 atts a game, 205 yds a game, 17 tds, 16 ints, 76.9 Rating....

But now...as I read above...Drew Brees is one of the top three passers in the game..."Hes a phenomenal talent that makes marginal players look great"

The guy actually got WORSE his second year....how much patience would any of you given Drew Brees, an ELITE QB TALENT? Then youd look pretty smug trading away or getting rid of him so soon....only to watch him explode later.

So.....

At what point in his blooming career, did anyone watching him say he was this phenomenal talent...his first season? No? How bout his second one with the sub 70 QB rating? But...Ive heard time and time again how we were crazy for not drafting Brees when we had the chance....and then signing him later in his career.

Look at the guys first two seasons with the Chargers...he would have been given the Jay Fiedler treatment here....

If that right there doesnt make anyone quit with the non sense about giving Henne time...I dont know what does...

 

Oh...and just to give you some more thought to chew on....heres Henne in 9 games:

249 Attempts, 144 Completions, 57.8 %, 27.7 atts a game, 168 yds a game, 7 Tds, 7 Ints, 73.2 rating....

Yeh...I agree...lets give him one year to "prove himself" then go out and find our next franchise QB, who will likely put up the same if not worse numbers his first year, and then we can do it again....have everyone rush to judgement...rinse and repeat, and NEVER HAVE A FRANCHISE QB because everyone has the patience of a knat.

 

I'm impressed with Henne so far, I think he can be a winner in the NFL

 

To go back and quote the Great Philosopher Right-on Washington - Right on, Right on, right on.

You can count on one hand the number of quarterbacks who have had a stellar debut season. It takes more than even two seasons for the game to begin to 'come to them.' Henne has shown that he has the physical tools to play the game, and that he is in the process of learning the mental aspect of the game. He needs at least two more years to see if he falls into the Brees/Manning/Brady general neighborhood, then a couple more to see if he can move next door to them. I don't think he will develop that far, but I can see him holding his own in a game with them with an adequate running game.

The thing that has cost us against the so called elite quarterbacks is entirely our defense. And that is also in the process of being completely rebuilt, fans. Two years ago, almost all of our current starters were not on this team, or even in the NFL. They have a little further go to become a good defense, let alone, one able to stand with the NoNames. Now, if our defense can become THAT good, and the offense continue to progress with the strong running game, I think that you will see a lot of elite quarterbacks sitting on the sideline waiting to get in the game, and being frustrated into making some rare mistake when they get into the game. Games which, by the way, the team will win with a quarterback who does not HAVE to throw every down, or even average 220 yards per game passing. It is a truism that if you can keep the other defense on the field and grind them down, your own defense will be fresh and strong. It if is good, fresh, and strong at the same time - that is not good for the other team's quarterback if he is having to play catch-up! (Of course, that is Captain Obvious reporting, but it remains valid!)

Give Henne the time to develop and do not judge him THIS YEAR, or next for that matter, even if the team manages to produce a #1 Receiver out of the top hat. The Dolphins were sliding down hill a long, long time before last year, and expecting a complete turn-around in less than three is not realistic, and 11-5 season notwithstanding. Another thought, almost every Parcells driven team has had a worse second year than first year after his arrival. The 3rd year is usually the time when consistency in winning attitude become apparent.

 

What are we really going to know for SURE at the end of this season? It takes a few years to judge a Qb, unless he just shows that he has no hope we are going to go with Henne next year. He's show enough to me that I think we can win with him. Now if we had a top 5 pick and we thought the next Peyton Manning was available? Ok, draft him but other wise we are going to stick with Henne. I like Henne, I think he's going to be a good pro for us.

 

How much time would I give the guy that got worse his second year (third overall)? Probably the same amount of time the Chargers did before they drafted Phillip Rivers (or Manning, technically). There's a reason why Brees was available at all and thats because he didn't pick up his game until he was almost out of the league.

There's no way to attempt to estimate the chances of Henne's success given the sample size, and I'm not going to go back across eras to attempt to compare because the game has changed. But, just from the limited research I did above it doesn't look good for him if he can't meet those criteria in his rookie year. The more I look into it, the more Parcells is right about puppies biting when they're young. Matter of fact, do you know what quarterbacks statistics Henne is most close to right now?

Jay Fiedler.

Does that mean that Henne isn't going to pull it out and become great? Not at all. The chances are against him as a football player in general however, and as a second round pick. But trying to use the unique case of Brees as some sort of proof that Henne is going to be great is probably the most futile exercise I've ever seen. There's only one Dan Marino, there's only one Drew Brees. Stop trying to make other players fit those molds.

 

Here is my question in addendum to the discussion. As inexact a science as Franchise QBs can be, just finding a good one is hard. So how is it that we can say, "I think Chad Henne will be a good QB, but fall short of being a Brady/Manning/Marino." Are these statements based on something, or are they just saftey nets that are cast out so if in the event Henne is a bust, there is an esacpe route? I'm not saying this to be smart. I just want to know what evidence do most people have that puts this glass ceiling on Henne's potential to an ELITE QB. After all, a lot of people felt the same about Brees for being short, etc. etc. You simply can't tell what he's going to pan out to be this early in the game.

 

Basically, gut instinct and 45+ years of watching pro football. That tells me that Henne has a lot of 'It', however you want to define 'It', but at this stage of his career, I don't have any way to determine if the 'It' he has is enough of 'It' to guarantee that he will be a consistently winning 'franchise quarterback' (another subjective term - the Dolphins have had two very different franchise quarterbacks!) who can put the team on his shoulders when necessary and carry them to crucial wins, which is about as highly subjective as 'It' can be. I think he can, but don't have enough data for the gut to grind to step out and say that I KNOW he is going to be an All-Pro caliber quarterback. I had that feeling with Marino the first time I saw him walk up under center, but then again, so did a few other people who know a lot more about this than I.

 

NO....what you need to do is pull your head out of John Claytons butt and realize you arent going to be able to decipher what kind of QB Chad Henne is going to be this year. You guys can hope, wish , pray all you want....but the fact is...several...SEVERAL pro football scouts and coaches, and ex players have gone on to say based on what they have seen...Henne is showing them everything they want to see in a future franchise QB.

But..hey..what the hell do they know right....youd rather read some stats that John Clayton has said ...well if you're within these numbers...your an ELITE QB...but not ONCE...ONCE..ONCE...has he said that in terms of a first year QB. Please...give me one example...ONE EXAMPLE....of where he has used those numbers...or any other so called expert...that a first year QB needs to put up close to those numbers to show he is going to be an elite QB.

Actually spend some TIME on the subject...look at the numbers of ELITE QB's in their first year as starters....here...Ill actually help get it started....


Manning in his first 16 Games:

575 ATs, 326 Compl, 56.7%, 35 ats a game, 233 yds game, 26 td 28 ints, 71 Rating

So...lets look at that compared to Henne...

249 Ats, 144 Compl, 57.8%, 27 ats a game, 168 yds, 7 TD's 7 Ints...

Henne is avg 8 less pass attempts a game. 70 some odd yards less on Avg.

So..what about Mannings first season would have told you he would be Elite?

His 26 TD's. Wonder how many rushing TD's they had that season?


Even Big Ben avgd less than 200 yds a game his first two years...which by defined by your standards...means the Steelers should have know he wasnt gonna be elite....

Actually...I hate to tell you this...but if you look at Tom Brady's numbers his first season starting....and put Chad Henne's numbers right on top....its almost scarey how alike they are. So...after the end of Brady's first season....did you know he was going to be elite?

All you can do with a first year QB is if they have Clay to mold.

Henne - Can he make all the needed passes, YES

Does he display leadership on the field - YES

Can he overcome adversity and rise to the occasion - YES

(Second game ever started, Monday night against the NYJ...Id say thats rising to the occasion....2 fourth Qtr comebacks...Check)

Has he shown improvement in areas of weakness - YES, on several occasions in the past two games, both announcers and coaches have said repeatedly Chad has made it through at least three progressions on several occasions...when one of the biggest knocks on him was that he stared down targets....

Its an argument you cant win.

 

If you can't rely on your receivers and you lack the receivers to have a successful air game its going to be tough to reach your potential as a quarterback. Give Henne some receivers who can not only catch everything that hits them in the hands or chest, but can also commit their body to make the tough catches and you will see better numbers from Henne but thats JMO.
How about looking at Bob Griese's stats in his first three years;
1967 - 50.2 completion%, 2005 yards, 15 TDs and 18 Ints and a 61.6 QB rating
1968 - 52.4 completion%, 2473 yards, 21 TDs and 16 Ints and a 75.7 QB rating
1969 - 48.0 completion%, 1695 yards, 10 TDs and 16 Ints and a 56.9 QB rating
I know it was a long time ago but if you use the criteria that is being used on Henne then Griese wouldn't have been Miami's QB for long.
Griese turned out pretty good with 8 Pro Bowls, 2 time first team All Pro, Miami's Ring of Honor and the Hall of Fame. We all know about his Super Bowls.

The same can be said for a lot of other QBs such as John Elway and others.
Elways first year
1983 - 47.5 completion%, 1663 yards, 7 TDs and 14 Ints and a 54.9 QB rating.
If teams used the time to develop and the criteria used for Henne then there would be a lot different list of QBs in the Hall of Fame.
Steve Young played so badly in Tampa Bay his first two years that Tampa gave up on him. We all know about his Hall of Fame career with the 49ers.

Its JMO but I would wait to judge him untill they are finished building the team around him and he has all the tools to succeed.

 

It's an argument you aren't even prepared to make. You haven't written a word I typed. I already addressed all of the above issues. I admitted that it's possible that Henne can develop into that elite quarterback, just that judging by using the criteria the odds are against him, unless he picks it up and starts to get closer to those criteria. I also said that not every QB met every statistic exactly, but I did note that they certainly got close in the statistics that didn't match.

You cherry pick a single statistic from a quarterback here or there to attempt to disprove the general premise. You know how Roethlisberger threw for under 200 ypg in his rookie season? He also completed 66% of his passes. Heck, the Dolphins running game is better than the 2004 Steelers. But, this is honestly a wasted exercise on my part. You'll always have an excuse here or there despite the overwhelming general tendency shown. You pick one of the QBs in Manning I already said succeeded in spite of their not-entirely stellar rookie seasons and ignore the other 11.

You know, I amend my earlier statement. The only premise more foolish than claiming that a QB is going to be the next Brees is attempting to temper the boundless enthusiasm that a QB is going to be the next Brees.

We'll pick this discussion up at the end of the season when I have a more complete set of data to compare witih.

 

It's a stupid title, but the point of the article is familiar: right now, the route to success in the NFL is throwing well, not running well. Yet the Dolphins seem to be emphasizing the run over the pass. Does that make sense?

 

it is stupidity to think hennes future reaching potential will be decided this year

 

We should have drafted Aaron Rodgers when we had the chance. Problem solved.

 

shoulda drafted brees problem solved.

Aoron Rodgers sat 2 yrs, had an estab offense with receivers

Henne is fine and may be great. but unless he duplicates dan throw him to the curb right?

 

Aaron Rodgers = Joe Montana with a stronger arm. He would have been better as a rookie than anything we had back then.

Aaron Rodgers is the definition of ELITE NFL QB.

 

Yeh...that way we both have something more concrete to work with instead of trying to assume how hes gonna do....which turns into an argument more than a discussion...

We could even agree on what we would consider the makings of an elite QB...just some parameters

 

Really ,dont think he is all what people make him out to be.

what his percentage ?

 

Would agree with that 100%....can you imagine Aaron Rogers with an offensive line infront of him....

 

Off topic: watching the end of the Pitt-Cinncinnati game. Wannstedt has had his tailback run the ball 47 times!! No wonder Ricky quit.

 

2008 stats (1st year starting):

28 passing TDs/ 13 INT / 4038 passing yards / 93.8 passer rating

207 rushing yards / 4 TDs

2009 stats (with 5 games to go...):

22 passing TDs / 5 INT / 3136 passing yards / 104.9 paser rating

247 rushing yards / 3 TDs


All of that with easily the WORST O-Line in the NFL.

Yeah, he's the REAL DEAL.

 

We need to add two stud WR's and a TE to help Henne further his progress in his career. The man needs the tools to succeed.