Miami Dolphins QB John Beck vows to improve

I just hope one of these guys turns into the next Dan Marino so we can end this debate once and for all thus having more time for the important topics like who will have the longer Hollywood career, Howie Long or Jason Taylor. Firestorm is going to be tough to beat!

 

Don't forget Shaq and Kazaam.

I want nothing more than for the Miami Dolphins Qb search to be over, but giving up on players after such a small sample of games in which the odds were tipped against him as some have suggested is not wise player development. If we don't take the time to groom our players and make them better, this QB search will be a never ending line of failure because no player will ever get a chance to fix his weaknesses or right his mistakes.

 

I agree.

WE NEED STABILITY and PATIENCE.

 

You are incorrect...I did the math on this one only...this is a game we can play all day..if if's and but's were candy and nut's......

his QB rating would be 67.83 (still not as bad as Becks) with that game thrown out....throw out the Giants game and his rating is somewhere around 77 (I am not going to do the math on every scenario).....thrown out Becks 4th quarter against Cincy and I would guess his 62 rating goes to somewhere around 57......a rating somewhat like Congress approval rating right now....

We can play this game all day...they all count and they are what they are...and you are incorrect................

 

Tell you what sport. If I miscalculated, it wasn't to deceive, it was a mistake! I'm a better man than that.

I don't care enough to recheck my figures, but if you are demanding double checked factual quotes from me, I expect them from you. The approval rating of congress Is tied, at an all time low of 18%.

Anyone can make a mistake!

I also do not like being talked down to. No where in this thread or on this message board will you find where I have conducted myself in that manner. I expect the reciprocal.

 

Interesting. I didn't think a whole lot of Edwards based on what I saw, but I would have guessed his stats to be considerably better than Loseman's. Yet, statistically speaking Loseman is clearly superior. Hmmm. Makes you wonder whether the "X" factor in my peceived superiority of Edwards over Loseman has to do with the Bills winning more often when TE starts vs. Loseman. If that's the case, I could only presume that TE possesses a discernable advantage in field leadership.

While these stats offer only limited insight, they do make you wander. I think we've all had a low, yet objective opinion of Loseman to this point (just never scared me or impressed me...at all); and here we see that he outperformed Edwards, who is apparently a sure fire QB star. A sure fire headscratcher is what I'd call it.

 

One thing I took particular notice of, and I'm being totally objective here, while watching Edwards last year is that while many, many of his passes were of the "dink and dunk" variety, the RBs and TEs were turning those 4 yard dump-offs into 10 and 15 yard gains on a fairly consistent basis. Just seemed like the receivers had alot of room to roam after the catch. Is that b/c of the scheme? Is that b/c of talented YAC receivers? Is that b/c Edwards was especially good at his progressions? I honestly don't know, but I do believe that this phenomoneon, whatever its origin, has had a significant influence on that YPA figure. Any thoughts?

 

Think about it, they had 7 wins last year. By my estimation, you can say Trent Edwards won 4 of them. The First Jets game, Baltimore Game. The second Jets game BUF scored 13-3, yet JP is the one who led them to a FG and a TD. Trent won the Washington game and then torched us. So that's 4 wins to 3. Is that significantly outplaying JP? Remember the 3rd game JP only threw one pass, so who is responsible for that loss even though JP started it?

I think Buffalo gave up way to early on JP. He showed promise in 2006 and played better than the both of them did last year. He was an excellent deep passer, he just had to work on his short and medium game, which is easier than vice versa.

Anyway, my point being, Trent Edwards, while playing decent, didn't even really outplay JP IMO.

STL, if I knew where to get the info, I'd go grab the stat where they show how deep the passes were, not just how far the total play was. IT's out there, I just dont' know where it is. But think about this. KC Joyner did an analysis of the best decision makers. Joey Harrington was on it, but then he was also lowest in the league for deep passes. Trent Edwards was also one of the lowest in the league for deep passes (6th, Joey was 2nd) but was not on the list for least bad decisions. Scary that Trent Edwards only attempted 3 percent more deeper passes, but apparently made a lot more bad decisions than Joey Harrington. Scary. Very Scary.

 

Let's say I agreed with you (which I respectfully do not), even if after watching every Bills game and you could make the case that Trent Edwards did not really outplay J.P. but as you claim, they were dead even. For a rookie QB to come in and play at the level of a 4 year veteran is pretty good. Factoring that in, even if Trent played on an equal level as J.P. that is still outplaying him when you factor in time and experience.

 

Exactly. The fact that Edwards played Losman to a draw says alot about Edwards.

 

I agree 2cents. Its a silly game to play "if we take away his best...if not for that one game...." They all count. They all matter.

 

Mole, I meant no disrespect at all. If you talk with 99% of the people on this board I think they would say I am very respectful of others opinions and their work.

I did not mean to split hairs with the numbers it was the bigger picture general nature of the idea that some games count and some do not that I do not agree with. Everyone has bad games, good games and most younger players have "flashes" of talent. At the end of the day we can only evaluate the body of work as a whole and from a statistical evaluation standpoint IMHO we should not factor in and factor out this and that...again JMHO.

Again mole I do apologize for the way the post came off from me, and that is my bad...I hope you accept my apology. I try not to talk down to anyone and be respectful as long as that is reciprocated. You have been gracious and respectful and you do have my sincere apology for my wording and the way it reads...it was not meant in the manner is reads. My apologies Mole.

 

SLFF...I have not really watched enough of Buffalo games last year to offer any sort of informed opinion. The ones I saw were sporadic and not a real in depth viewing. I think if I am not mistaken that Losman's was also higher than TE's, somewhere around 7 if I think...so they may have simplified the scheme somewhat for TE but it does not look significantly different from the numbers...a objective Bills fan (if there are any )could tell you more abot the actual game planning after TE came in.

I do know that Lynch is not known as an elusive out of the backfield type and I think he caught under 20 balls last year. Reed is a possession guy at this point. Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish are down field types and Robert Royal and Michael Gaines are not exactly vertical TE's...so I would guess there is some balance in their scheme particularly to the TE's underneath and WR's vertically...but that is a guess based on what they have been over their careers.....not watching the Bills much.

Again not much of opinion from a "what I saw standpoint" but IMO from the history that may be what is happening...may not also...I am just not very informed but it is something to at least think about....

 

To me that is interesting. Given that T.E. had a fairly high % ratio of 20 yard and 40 yard completions per attempt...as stated earlier comparable to Manning and Brady's ratio it really makes the Buffalo WR's more respectable...then you look at their YPC and you have Evans as the only guy above 11.5 YPC. Mystifying ..... or else it REALLY makes you see how much Lee Evans means to their passing game.........key on Lynch and roll out a LB underneath and play cover 2 deep on Evans and Buffalo may never score...................

 

Ray, good strong friendships are often forged from conflict. Please consider this my peace offering. Here's to a long lasting cyber friendship brother.

I'm certainly not as skilled at conveying my thoughts through the written word as many/most on this site. lol There was a period from 1973 - 1994 (94 internet) that I honestly don't believe I put pen to paper. I was back amongst all my friends and family and communicated verbally or via the telephone.

Having said that, I realize all games count. The point I was trying to make is every team exploited our pass defense last year, once they tired of running on us.

You are a good man! I believe from this day forward, You and I will never have conflict, for you have proven to me what manner of man, You are.

 

Yes like I said, it was commendable he came in and played the way he did as a rookie, I just think they gave up on JP way too early, as he played in 2006 much better than the both of them did last year. JP had one of the best deep balls in 2006.

Must be espn insider - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2947314

 

Ah the stats argument, love the stats argument. Course we should in reality and fairness factor in the mode, median and the like so that the bell is curved for such factors as injury, coaching, supporting cast, experience etc. Numbers and ratings are all easily pointed to, but without considering the playing field that created that number then the comparison isnt equal. Not saying Edwrads cant be a better qb, but to simply look at numbers and qb ratings and saying Edwards performed better is very misleading IMO.

Your basically using those numbers to say that Edwards would have had had teh same success here with us in teh exact situation we had, that there would have been no diff in his stats had he been with us and our coaching, injuries etc while Beck would have had teh same stats with a healthier team with and more established talented line, est receivers and a rookie back with a better defense. There is no other interpretation if you use the stats themselves as an indicator of who is better or who performed better.

 

I think some of you make this too difficult. If you don't like the stats arguement, then leave it alone. If you watched Edwards play vs the Jets, the Redskins, and the Dolphins and watched Beck play in his four starts, I think anyone would be hard pressed to say, "yeah, Beck looks better", which was my point all along.

Beck might be a better QB, have a better career, and play on a more successful team. That is entirely possible. But the whole point of the matter is that no one can OBJECTIVELY say, "Oh yeah, I watched JB play, and did this guy show some flashes of brilliance". That would be totally false. One could OBJECTIVELY make that case for Edwards.

And let me repeat, just for emphasis...This in NO WAY suggests that Edward is better, will be better, or was a better pick than Beck. That jury is still out...and won't be in until the end of the 08 season...at the earliest.

 

First off...I AM NOT ANTI BECK if anyone thinks I am...do I see all the tools I read about...NO....do I see a team respond to all his terrific intangibles I read about ....NO......I just do not see what other people apparently see. I just have not seen it...Do I want to....heck yes...I would love to have 3 winning QB's with value....I simply cannot sit here and regurgitate media information that I do not see...granted I do not see practice so maybe it is there....does not translate to anything I have seen on my TV.....he is a QB on my favorite team heck yes i want him to be GREAT!!!!...BUT....

I am not sure exactly what you are saying here....I was sort of pulled into this thread a little late. Truth be told I am not exactly sure what the jist of the entire thread is any more.

I have also used quanitative methods in sports.....gambling....and at a high level in business and production analysis....so I am infinitely familiar with many of the statistical methods to arrive at a conclusion and normalizing data for all the factors you suggest is not practical for evaluating two players...but again I am not sure where we are going here...and IMO that is way too far out there for a message board.......

I am not using numbers to suggest Edwards is better than Beck, or will be better than Beck. You are correct their situations were very different. Do I think Edwards is the better prospect...Yes...but not based on numbers. From a numbers/statistical perspective Edwards performed better in his situation than Beck. One of the biggest rallying points for Beck supporters is that he is a leader...yet no one rallied around this guy and the team basically quit. "This is not gonna look good on a resume"

I think Edwards has the better arm, better pocket presence, better mechanics, takes care of the ball better, and people respond to his presence. The stats are representative of that. His injury history would be a concern. Stanford was pitiful in his tenure and he managed to win 5 games his only healthy season. As for Beck he showed nothing statistically that would make me think what I saw from a tools standpoint is inaccurate......

I do not see the "tools" that would make Beck a "franchise" QB...and I do not see the intangibles....I read about all those things...just have not seen them.

My rankings had Edwards as my #3 QB following Russell and Quinn. At 4 I had Kolb and at 5 Beck...and I think there was a big dropoff after Kolb....JMO...to which I am entitled.

It is just my opinion and statistically he has done nothing to prove me wrong. you are entitled to your opinion as much as I am entitled to mine...I think you are wrong and you think I am wrong about Becks viability as a "franchise" QB.....that is OK...time will tell because until now all we have are excuses and arguments that split hairs.....

The best thing that happened to Beck and this organization is that someone finally gets the fact that "you are what your record is"....and Beck is what his statistics are..........I am withdrawing from this debate for the fact that I am tired of the excuses as to why people do not perform...either they do or they do not...we can argue all millenium as to why they did not and the fact will still remain they did not perform........

 

"Shane! Shane! Come back!"

 

That tickled me!

I take M2C at his word. I don't believe he's anti-beck. I believe he's strong in his convictions and trust his analysis.

Like he says, only time will tell. I believe in John beck though.

 

kevin kolb has proved what exactly?

 

And you would be incorrect.

There are few guys in the NFL that represent and carry themselves as well as John Beck. I think John Beck the person is a person I would want to be associated with, that is not anti Beck. Who would not want to see a guy with the attributes of John Beck succeed? I am very positive on John Beck and his character.

I think John Beck is a great human being and appears well grounded. I think he is a wonderful representative of the Miami Dolphins, has great work ethic, gives great effort, is smart, coachable and is a fantastic team player. I also think he has decent touch and good accuracy.

That should help balance any negativity that I have expressed regarding John Beck. I do not remember however one post of mine that said anything negative about John Beck's effort or anything he can control for that matter. I think John Beck and all the positive attributes he has will make him the best player he can be. Do I doubt his tools...yes...but he is a heck of a good person from what I read and someone I would dearly love to see succeed (as much because he is a QB on my favorite NFL team as much as anything).....you are very wrong in your post Dupree.

Labels serve to support an argument when framed in bias.....if I post a wordy response then I am "prettying it up"...if I use brevity in my post then I "have no evidence", if I use statistics I am "misreresenting the situation", if I use situational analysis then I am "making excuses"...there is no proper framework to present my opinion that is acceptable when there is bias toward a player...SO...I gave you my opinion and the reasons why I have that opinion...feel free to disagree, but I clearly stated that I am not anti Beck. I have posted that this is my opinion so clearly and so often that people are probably tired of seeing ... IMHO....I have also shown respect for contrarian opinions and for fellow poster i have inadvertantly offended.

Your reference that my post is not exactly what I said it was is insulting to me and unneeded in a public forum...and is not in the spirit of the new site. You however feel free to excersize your right to exemplify your character or lack of character and respect for fellow posters contributions when responding to fellow posters that have legitimized their opinions with the reasoning behind those opinions. Your post after I have clearly stated something to the contrary is argumentative and is the same as calling me a liar...and that is not very responsible or respectful given the context of my posts in this thread.

I believe fellow posters can see your respect or lack of respect for the contributions and make their own determinations...........whatever side their opinions fall on in this debate.

 

Trust me I respect your opinion. My only point and I qualify as I cam in late, is that stats used to compare Losman and Edwards is fine as teh criteria is teh same. Beck and Edwards is hard to do on numbers as teh creation of the numbers were not the same.

As far as Edwards having better physical skills, maybe. Not by much IMO. I believe Beck is better at the cerebral part of teh game. I see a gym rat who is consumed by it. I dont know that Beck will ever make it, but I like his chances. I also like that we drafted henne, our odds increease that 1 will emerge as our qb of teh future.

 

I agree with you...different situations.

 

Dont withdraw from the debate. You are saying what needs to be said. As for you not seeing those things in Beck, truth is, no one has seen those things from Beck. We are all hoping for what we have not yet seen.

I had the QBs exactly as you did, save Kolb ahead of Edwards. Touche'.

And I also agree that "you are what your record says you are". And that also rolls downhill to every other aspect of football.

In short, this is another great post from you. Keep up this good work.

 

Kevin Kolb hasn't played yet (anything meaningful anyway) so he hasn't proved anything.

What does he have to do with this conversation anyhow?

 

I think you just owned this poor guy.

 

We invite polite and reasonable dissent but rude has no place here.

If you want to explore alternative places to discuss the Dolphins where quality may not be quite as important, check out one of these sites:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...hins+finheaven+NOT+"thePhins.com"&btnG=Search

 

Wow, a little touchy tonight aren't we, Celtkin? I've posted probably 30 posts on the subject of John Beck alone. Saying all the things that 2cents is now getting praised for saying. Surprisingly, not a word from you. I give one "one-liner" and the self righteous show up. The moderators on this board insult posters and nothing gets said. I get insulted, nothing gets said. I just give one "atta boy" to a guy who drills a moron and I get admonished. Oh well, whatever.

 

Not touchy -- This board is just about more than empty and insulting posts. We pledged to preserve the quality of the forums and you were warned more than taking one-liner pot shots.

 

Bro I suggest you take a breather away from the site before you do something to regret your actions. Celtkin and the great staff here do not insult our members, that is not what we or the site are about.

 

The reason you get admonished is because of the bold. We all disagreed with you but in a respectful way bro. There's no reason to call a person any name.

 

Come on brother, you are sporting pretty profound sig. Lift the hood up on that thing as see what it has inside.

 

Free...not exactly accurate...someone can call you a liar and "pretty it up" and no one will say a thing.....must be semantics or the content of posts are not mutually exclusive from the posters reputation which is hypocritical of what this site is said to be about...personally I am confused by the hypocrisy of what this thread has become..............and the handling of it

 

Actually your confusion is born more from not knowing the entire history, than from any hypocrisy on the staff's part.
Sometimes "admonishments" are public, other times private, so you can never be sure of the full status of any given member.
To be honest you handled the situation fairly well .. initially... to the point where the issue would have been dropped. By beleaguering the point however, it's now to a point where the thread is in danger of being closed.
That would truely be a shame, as there are some good posts being made, with good points on each side, resulting in quality discussion.
My suggestion is that things are taken back on track, and the needling and provocation ends so that the topic can be discussed further.

 

M2C as I have said I respect your opinion and right to it.

I disagree with the hypothesis. You basically stated you didnt like Beck that much coming out of college. That is also fine. You dont have to like him. My point? Using last years stats to prove your opinion out of college is valid is a little weak IMO. I do not believe you can use last year stats as an indicator of proof of ones original opinion. Not excuses, nor does teh factors brought mitigate the questions completely. It is more of a question of how many qbs do you think could have succeeded as a rookie with 0 experience playing with us last year? That is teh determining factor in saying the stats Beck had were his creation primarily. That is had any other qb in that class you stated would have fared better. I totally disagree with that. If you dont believe that, then the stats argument means nothing. The only thing the stats argument says to me is Beck isnt Manning nor Palmer. It says he may never reach that status, he may get close. It says to me that book is out and this year and next are crucial.

Edwards was a qb I liked as well, so not saying anything disparaging. I just thought Beck was better.

 

Phin Beck...I can go with that. We do not agree but I sure do appreciate the tone and respect of the disagreement and your respnse adds a lot to getting this thread back on track....my thanks.

 

Its not like he can get any worse.