Carradine is a significantly better player with a vast array of rush moves and a very high motor. No one really knows till he tries to work out. Will he be the Tank of old or will he be O'Brien Schofield?
I think they've tried to find one though. They were really high on Dontay Moch who they drafted out of Nevada two years ago. He's dealt with injuries and migraines the past two years to the point he's only been active for one game. I think they've countered that with the productivity they've gotten out of Atkins rushing from the middle and what Carlos Dunlap gives them (he's really playing the same spot as Odrick). They've also added more role-players that have made nice contributions as well in Wallace Gilberry who added like 6.5 sacks in 7 weeks last year. Robert Geathers is still a solid-run stopper. I'd equate those two guys to Olivier Vernon and Derrick Shelby, respectively. A lot of draft chat here in Cincinnati is that they're looking to revamp their LB corps as only one starter, thus far, is returning from last season: Vontaze Burfict. I think they're hoping that Dontay Moch comes on quickly as a SAM/Rush-LB, and they can find a smaller, fast guy to play the Will spot as they plan on moving Burfict to the MLB spot if Rey Maualuga comes back. Guys like Arthur Brown and Kasheem Greene have been mentioned. I think they've also looked at the kid from UNC...Reddick? as a MLB.
Werner's tape has been well out there for over a year. Well out. His downfall has nothing to do with "catching up" on tape. The guy that is ascending the most and contributing to Werner's downfall is Zeke Ansah and you yourself have said many times that there's no way you watch Zeke's tape and see a guy that is making an impact as a pass rusher. What has clearly happened that de-stabilized Werner's stock while simultaneously allowing Ansah to rise, is the NFL Combine. I think that much is pretty clear.
As you'll notice, Chris and I fundamentally disagree on two players in this draft, which makes the whole thing so unique and so much fun. We all see different things in different people.
I would totally disagree especially as Ansah has hardly snuck up on people, but as I said I the post above, it's all about the assessment!
That's the least of my questions about him. I've seen this questioned about him several times, usually accompanied by citing that he weighs in the 260's, and I never understand it any time it happens. He's a big defensive end. Big, strong core. Very stout against the run, always has been. If nobody knew what his height/weight listing was, nobody in the world would say that their one big question about him is can he be stout against the run.
Who is the second player? Oh wait. Ok. Throwing me off because we were talking about DEs. Yeah, two players we disagree on big time for sure, lol.
And who here actually remembers how they TRIED to use Michael Johnson initially before he settled into the player he currently is? I do.
Jared Odrick is a six technique correct? Datone Jones is about the only guy I see out there along with Hunt that could potentially replace him there if you're trying to keep prototypes the same. Now if you believe that Werner could hold it down as a power end then by all means you make him the pick.
I recall them using him like that. I wonder what it would be like if they tried it at this stage of his career. A lot of people thought their re-signing of Robert Geathers was odd...or was it a sign of things to come? Geathers is more run-stopper than all-around DE at this point (like Darth Vader is more machine than man now).
I wonder if you took Werner if he'd start his career like Chris Long and see limited sacks until year 3. I feel like if that happened here we'd be screaming bust.
I'm honestly inclined to put Cornellius Washinton in there, too. The goods as there to work with and mold into something special or close to it IMO. Call me crazy but in 3 years I think we just might be be looking at Washington as the better pass rusher of the 2 Georgia boys.
It's crazy how the tape is the same for all of us yet we can see it completely different you know. Agree on the "unique & fun part".
Gotta agree with Boomer. Like I said earlier, I just don't see the pass rush being there for Werner at the next level. Just couldn't get behind a de who isn't a threat to sack the qb 8+ times going 12th to Miami. He doesn't fit what we need. We already have a de who is good against the run but doesn't have the quickness to get to the qb from the end position.
If that DE produced eight sacks from that end spot Miami would have won been in playoff contention. Odrick got his sacks almost entirely in the nickel D. It's a big need.
It definitely is a need. A need that Werner cannot fill. He's the high floor, low ceiling guy Ireland seems to love though. I may get killed for this but I wouldn't take Werner in the top 20 and if mia is hellbent on taking the same ole same ole of years past approach to the draft than they should wait and see if he's there in the 20s to trade up. Hopefully though with philbin we ve gotten away from that "safe" pick strategy.
I think Bjoern Werner challenges the way some people think about the concepts of explosiveness and potential. People are getting too caught up in the physical and traditional measures of speed and explosiveness. At some positions you need to be caught up in that. At other positions, you don't. Everyone were quite high on Michael Bennett when he came to visit and the Dolphins looked like they might sign him. Bjoern Werner is a significantly better athlete, on the field, or by the Combine numbers. That should tell you something. In fact if you look at the numbers Werner is about the same as a number of guys that are well thought of (for good reason). That includes Terrell Suggs, Paul Kruger (who just got an $8 million a year deal in Cleveland), Tamba Hali, Derrick Morgan, Calvin Pace (who used to be good) and Courtney Upshaw. Significantly more athletic than guys like Pernell McPhee, Wallace Gilberry, Michael Bennett and Matt Shaughnessy. Hell if you really look at the numbers there's not a ton of difference between Werner's numbers and Jason Pierre-Paul's. There's a lot more to a player physically when you're talking about "potential" though. Strength is a measure of potential. Explosiveness is a measure of potential. So is reaction time. The last is where Werner REALLY stands out. I don't care what the 10 yard splits say when you put everyone in shorts on a track and then have the timer reacting to their movement. Let's put them on the line of scrimmage and have them reacting to the snap because that's what defensive linemen do. I'll have more of this in Draft Winds but Bjoern Werner's ability to feel the snap and react to it, anticipate it, etc...is really incredible. There are times he's literally moving IN PERFECT TIME (within 1/60th of a second) to the Center as he's snapping the football. It's uncanny. Compare the time it takes one guy (Werner) to lift his hand off the ground versus the other guy (Carradine) and you have a consistent difference. Compare the time it takes Werner to get his first foot hitting the ground in front of him versus Carradine, the difference is clear. I'm staring at a 2nd & 6 still frame right now, exactly 1.00 seconds after the Center first began perceptibly snapping the football, and there's no comparison. Bjoern is nearly 2 whole YARDS ahead of Carradine in his rush. So while we sit here and give our Oooh's and Ahhh's about the difference between a 1.62 in the 10 yard split and a 1.67 in the 10 yard split, Bjoern Werner has essentially established 3 tenths of a second of lead on every other defensive lineman on the field because he felt and reacted to the snap in an uncanny, entirely faster way. Werner puts a LOT of pressure on players because of this ability to feel, anticipate and react. This is a general thing, it's not just coming off the snap. This is hard-wiring he's got that allows him to react to things in different time from most other guys out there. It's also how he ends up knocking down so many passes.
Jarvis Jones followed by Margus Hunt and Jonathan Banks is another possibility. It lines up with what they're trying to do on the defensive end.
If you could get Hunt in the 3rd, he'd be worth taking IMO. Even if he cannot get any push as a pass rusher, just play him at DT in the nickel and tell him to get his arms up and block some passes. He may also be good for a few blocked FGs as a rookie. He seems to have a knack for slipping through between the offensive linemen and knocking them down at the college level already.
Jarvis Jones would be an unbelievable selection. I have watched this guy cause mayhem for too long not think he is not one of the best five players in the draft. His straight line speed is simply elite. His ability to explode off the football and changes direction well. If you were going to create a prototypical pass rusher you would not see Jarvis Jones' picture and some scouts are concerned by his arm length but the guy flat out gets the job done. We are talking about a guy who has 28 sacks in last two seasons...
I don't believe Long's departure is going to influence the first round for Miami. Just my opinion. I belive Miami already thought they were losing Long. I like Johnson, but I don't want him with the first pick. I would go de, cb, or Austin before ol.
Well, in a risk of a bit of redundancy and of Tavon Austin, one more time ... this from Evan Silva (whose opinions I have followed for a long time and I think is an exceptional evaluator of talent):
I'm feeling he's quietly going to be traded. The Phins want to get something from him and they want to keep him out of the division.
Why does Keenan Allen rarely get a mention in Dolphin mocks? He's a prototype for the WCO, a classic that can run routes well, and it's not like his injury is career threatening. There's no reason to think Miami won't drop in the draft and take him in the mid 20s.
While I don't disagree with anything you have said, I think they are looking at a creative process that Austin could bring to this offense. No reflection on Allen. I don't see Allen at 12 now as a WCO receiver. Austin brings a little more to the table in flexibility. Create more mismatches. Just my opinion.
I really agreed with most of that evaluation. I was less high on Austin's ability to come down with contested catches (particularly at the next level), but agreed about his toughness. I also didn't think his on-field long speed was all that great, but it was still very good. I thought the Vacarro comments were on point. IMO Vacarro did a good job on him. (I had seen some posts here claiming that Austin had owned Vacarro, or words to that effect, which I did not agree with). I think that Austin's play against Vacarro was indicative of what we could expect from Austin in the pros against NFL level talent. Austin was still very productive in that game b/c he was being covered by a S in mostly off coverage. Austin wasn't generally able to just beat him with his just his speed or route running and rarely escaped for extra yardage, but the spacing created by the coverage allowed him to gain good, positive yardage. Austin's hands were consistent and there were a few longer plays thrown in there. And if you throw in a deep threat like Wallace outside of him then you make it real difficult on the D. At a minimum you could play pitch and catch with Hartline, Keller or anybody else who is now necessarily matched up one on one.
I love Allen but at this point I have him as the third best offensive weapon in the draft..why go there if we can aquire one of the first two?
Austin's long speed may be more that of a typical 4.4 guy than a 4.3 guy, since his speed is somewhat "front loaded" but it's hardly a concern. I think Silva overstates his "concerns" about his long speed. On the play against LSU, Mathieu didn't run him down from behind -- Mathieu clearly had the angle on him. And Mathieu showed at the combine that he is not really speed deficient anyhow. The play against Kansas with Patmon wasn't a straight race to the end zone -- Patmon had an angle on him and a full running head start (while Austin had to change direction after the catch) and there was another Kansas defender also closing to the middle of the fiel, which caused Austin to head for the sideline and try to pick up a block from another WR. There were a few plays in the Texas game where Vaccaro had shoestring tackles that could have been big plays. Nice job by Vaccaro to make those plays, but neither he nor other NFL defenders are going to make them every time.
I am really surprised that anyone really thinks the Dolphins will spend their first round pick on another receiver. If you look at all the cap space the Dolphins have now spent on that position, along with all the other needs they still have to fill on the roster. It just doesn't make much sense that Ireland would draft another WR in the first or even the second round. I can see him possibly taking a WR in the third round, but I would be completely shocked if he doesn't draft help for the offensive line, the defensive line, and the secondary with his first 3 picks in the draft. I would love for the Dolphins to draft Austin at 12, but realistically I just can't see it happening. I think there is a far better chance of Ireland selecting Eifert with the 12th pick than Austin or any other WR on the board. I should add that I think the chances of the Dolphins drafting Eifert with their first round pick is very slim.
I said it and I pretty much stick by it, Raf. I'd say a 10 catch, 101 yard, 1 TD, and a blown pass interference call on a 30 yarder into the EZ against the nation's top cover safety is considered "getting the better end of the deal". You said Tavon wasn't generally able to get by him on speed but he did on this missed PI call, and if Texas doesn't double or hold him it's a TD. Amazing that Tavon is matched up against the nation's #1 safety and Texas STILL doubles him on the play. Here it is timestamped. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bG20wQoaies#t=251s How far away from Austin is Vaccaro on this 4th & 9 conversion on Texas's 20 for the easy first down? Isn't this a critical down & distance, especially with the proximity to the EZ, to allow Austin to create so much separation? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bG20wQoaies#t=271s So Austin doesn't use speed & route running to beat Vaccaro for what would've been an easy TD here? Vaccaro got owned on this play. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bG20wQoaies#t=282s + 6 below shots Vaccaro is on the LOS here yet still has no chance to defend this route: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bG20wQoaies#t=322s How 'bout on this 4th & 6 where Tavon gets Vaccaro taking a false step to the inside likely b/c of how great his shake/jerk route is up the seam. Easy 1st down. He owned Vaccaro on this play, too. At the top of his stem Austin takes a hard step with his inside foot (1st pic) and then it's hasta la pasta Vaccaro. Within a couple steps he's got 3 yards of separation. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bG20wQoaies#t=332s If Vaccaro doesn't have safety help & doesn't hold Tavon on the one play and if Geno isn't sacked on the other, Tavon has a 12 catch, 143 yard, 3 TD day. You might call that "very productive" (it's obviously your choice), but when it's the nation's #1 cover safety giving this up, I call it getting owned. JMO ....and if this type of performance is what we can expect from Tavon in the pros, then still keep my name signed up for Tavon for #1.
