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Miami Heralds Greg Cote: The Dolphins Should Find A QB They Believe In

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shamegame13, Feb 1, 2018.

  1. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I don't see any point to trading Tannehill. Yes, we should draft a QB in a higher round, but no FA we bring is going to be an improvement on Tannehill. Just keep him around until you find his replacement.
     
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  2. zatrex99

    zatrex99 Member

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    Excellent analogy.
     
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  3. zatrex99

    zatrex99 Member

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    I don't know about that. When I looked at ways we could trade up to get Mayfield (before Alex Smith went to the Redskins) I thought Tannehill would be perfect to replace Cousins in Washington. I'm sure we could have gotten at least a second rounder for him. He is essentially a younger better version of Smith and would fit well with Gruden. Even now (and trading up to get Mayfield is just a fantasy of mine) I'm sure a team like Arizona or the Jets would trade a 2nd rounder for him.
     
  4. zatrex99

    zatrex99 Member

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    I'd say if there is a guy you have a conviction for, you move up to get him. On the other hand Marino did drop to us.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Don't agree with this at all. First of all Aaron Rodgers is on par with Wilson IMO, and if not he'll definitely take the #2 spot. Then there's Cam Newton. That's 3 right there that are just on a different level than most other QB's going off script.

    As to who among "average off script" QB's should be placed at the top of that group.. who knows, but there's a difference in class here between guys like Wilson or Rodgers and most other QB's including Tannehill re: off script plays.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You're not disagreeing with me if you agree Rodgers > Tannehill in off script plays. You said Tannehill is in competition for the #2 spot and I don't see any justification for that once you include Rodgers.

    Furthermore, if you include some of the newer QB's there are some that clearly are above Tannehill. Take Deshaun Watson. That's Vick-like ability right there, and we'll see more of that if he recovers from injury. Also, other QB's like Wentz will easily give you as many escape and improvisation highlight reels (and probably more) as you'll find from Tannehill.

    So there are quite a few QB's that are on a different level from guys like Tannehill, and many more where you can find similar number of highlight reels for escapability and improvisation.
     
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  7. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    You do realize Adam Gase was hired in January 2016 right? Perhaps you forget to make a GIF of it.
     
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  8. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Runs like runningback?

    Are you kiddng me? Tannehill is a long strider. You don't have to be a runningback to make a quick move in the pocket, but when he breaks he's not shifty or quick twitch at all. That's not to say he's not athletic, but c'mon now ......
     
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  9. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  10. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Some of the things you read about Tannehill on this site will always be something you ONLY read on this site... like “Tannehill runs like a RB”.... extremely comical. Your laughed off the stage on a national scale with that comment. Lmao Nowhere and I mean, nowhere, will you ever read Tannehill runs like a RB in the national media. That’s literally local fandom bias at its finest right there. They don’t get it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
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  11. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    For me its the inconsistency. If he could put it together for an entire season I'd be happy but all he has are good 8 game stretches. Since 2013 to 2016 all he's had are good 8 game stretches.

    2013 weeks 1-8 he has 11tds and 9ints 80.8 rating/week 9-14 12tds 5ints qb rating 93.9.

    2014 week 1-5 he has 10tds and 5ints, 81.5 rating/week 6-13 14tds 4ints, qb rating 100.1.

    2015 week 1-4 he has 7tds and 5ints, 77.1 rating/week 5-12 14tds 6ints, qb rating 95.5.

    2016 week 1-5 he has 6td and 7int, 83.6 rating/week 6-13 13td 5 ints, qb rating 100.1.

    Clearly he can play good as seemingly every year he has these stretches but he's so inconsistent its only good for about 8 games at a time. Even quarter to quarter he's inconsistent. He's here his career numbers broken down by quarters.

    In 1st QTR 330 532 62.0% 3580 14td 12int 35 sacks 6.7y/a 81.2 rating

    In 2nd QTR 483 735 65.7 5302 30td 23int 53 sacks 7.2y/a 87.5 rating

    In 3rd QTR 394 596 66.1% 4407 31TD 11int 42 sacks 7.4y/a 97.6 rating

    In 4th QTR 442 764 57.9% 5015 31td 20int 82 sacks 6.6y/a 80.3 rating

    In the 3rd QTR from 2012-2016 he is 7th in TD's, 8th in QB rating, 6th in completion % he's basically a borderline elite QB in the 3rd QTR. He's a really good QB for 8 games a season. But thats way too inconsistent, I understand every player is going to have up and down qtrs and games but not to this extreme. I don't hate the guy I just don't know if he's the answer and if after 5 years we still don't know well thats probably more frustrating than anything else. Hopefully he proves me wrong and kills it in 2018.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tannehill is average in consistency. Easiest way to measure this is to compare the standard deviations of his game-by-game passer ratings to those of other QB's over a similar period. You can get gamelogs here:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/gamelog/

    Let's fix the time period to 2012-2016. The standard deviation of Tannehill's passer ratings during that period is 23.44. Andrew Luck's is similar at 23.39. So is Brady's at 24.19. So is Roethlisberger's at 24.77. Alex Smith's is 25.39. Philip Rivers' is 24.28. If you want a QB whose inconsistency is higher than normal you'll find one in Russell Wilson at 28.45.

    Point is.. statistically speaking Tannehill is average in consistency, at least measured by passer rating across games.
     
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  13. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    I'm not following what you mean by standard deviation.
     
  14. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Those were good plays Aqua, but if you are in this thread arguing you are not being biased, that your opinion of Tanny is purely objective, then you should be prepared to be taken to task about the hyperbole in the twitter posts. That's fair game in my opinion.

    The plays you've posted, and that I've watched from Tanny, is nowhere near the level of playmaking and offscriptedness compared to Wilson, who you acknolwedged, and Rodgers, and Cam Newton. Big Ben is a bit older now, so he's arguable, but hell Andrew Luck is a beast to be taken down. Andrew Luck is a much smoother runner than Tanny who runs stiff. I'd place Luck above Tanny in that department as well.
     
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  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think one of the reasons for RT's inconsistencies is that he's had inconsistent surroundings. Which includes coaches and players.

    I've said this before, but you could put nearly any current QB not named Wilson or Rodgers on this team over the last 6 seasons and most would have been permanently injured or cut.

    And the fact that most of the other QB's in cbrad's post have been in either consistent coaching and/or player situations speaks volumes about RT's ability.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Playing devil's advocate here, let's say EVERYONE so far is 100% right. Tannehill is an average NFL QB, 16th best in the league, and he's never going to be any better. If it's even a possibility that the previous statement can be true, then you need the QB of the future on the roster TODAY. And let's not forget that RT's knee will not be a proven commodity for at least 12 months....what if it's only 80% what it was? We just don't know. There is a definite possibility that we've seen the best football Tannehill will ever deliver.

    I DO NOT believe that statement is true, but at the same time I think we have to prepare for 2018 and beyond like it is. If that means bringing in Cousins or drafting a QB at 11, then that's the smartest possible move we can make with an unknown on Tannehill's trajectory. If he plays lights-out next year, then awesome, we have a rookie developing under his success. If RT stinks up the field or gets hurt, then we have a guy that's a lot more prepared to play a full season than Moore is at this point in his career.

    And the same scenario plays out if you grab Cousins- it doesn't hurt us one bit if he's on the bench or starting.

    I am a huge Ryan Tannehill fan and I think he has a long career ahead of him. I also think the original article is complete BS. But what if there's a shred of truth there? What is the knee never fully heals? The smart move is to hedge our bets now just to be 100% protected from what we just saw in 2017. And if that means bringing in someone that could potentially unseat Tannehill, then I have to be okay with that even though I don't want to see it happen.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Standard deviation is a measure in statistics of how "spread out" a set of numbers is.

    For example, let's say you have two sets of numbers A and B where A = {8,13,14,5} and B = {-3,16,20,7}. Both A and B have the same "mean" or "average" = 10 (just add those numbers and divide by 4). But it sure looks to the eye like B is more "spread out" than A. The question is how to measure that.

    An intuitive measure might be to just take "average absolute deviation" from the mean. That is.. for A the absolute deviations from the mean of 10 are 2,3,4,5 and the average of those numbers is 14/4 = 3.5. For B the absolute deviations from 10 are 13,6,10,3 and the average of those numbers is 32/4 = 8.

    There is one important reason why this approach is not used in mathematics as a measure of how spread out a set of numbers is: you can't do calculus on "absolute values" very easily, and calculus is a very useful form of mathematics used to estimate rates of change or where the minimum or maximum of a mathematical function is.

    So the chosen measure, called the standard deviation, does the following: 1) first calculate (x-mean)^2 for every number x in the set, 2) sum those squares, 3) divide by the number of elements in the set minus 1, and finally 4) take the square root of that quotient.

    For example, for set A you first calculate (8-10)^2 = 4, (13-10)^2 = 9, (14-10)^2 = 16 and (5-10)^2 = 25. Sum those 4 numbers and you get 54. Divide 54 by 4-1 and you get 18. Finally, take the square root of 18 and you get the standard deviation = 4.2426. The standard deviation for B is 10.2307, showing that B is more "spread out" than A.

    As to why it's done this way, taking the square (step 1) and taking the square root (step 4) is very similar to taking the absolute value. Dividing by number of elements in the set minus 1 is harder to explain but it's an adjustment necessary to get an unbiased estimate when taking samples from a distribution (basic reason is that if you know the mean of let's say 10 numbers, you only need to know 9 of those numbers to predict the last one because you already know the mean.. an intuition behind the "minus 1" part). And unlike absolute values, you can do calculus on squares and square roots.

    In any case, short answer is that the standard deviation is the most common way of measuring how spread out a distribution of numbers is, and here it's what you can use to estimate the spread of passer ratings of different QB's. So the larger the standard deviation the larger the spread.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
  18. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    What has Miami done in the last two seasons that prove they do not believe in Tannehill?
     
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  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Are you a teacher? If not, you should be. When I was in high school I remember trying to wrap my head around "standard deviations". My teacher never explained it as well as you just did. In fact, I had to learn it by going through many math books and having different people explain it to me. (No internet back then...lol...at least no internet that I could get access to)
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Thankfully I only have to do research, no teaching.

    However.. the ability to explain things well to an audience not familiar with your field is very useful in research papers where you're trying to convince people in one field to adopt a new (and better) mathematical approach compared to the one they're using right now. So in that sense I do "teach".
     
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  21. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    He's been inconsistent everywhere he's QB'd. After a while, you are what you are.
     
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  22. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    As an aside and random musing - I love standard deviations.

    They are a core part of my approach to markets in my trading. Changed my whole performance.
     
  23. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    That was hilarious... or the “passing of the torch” from Tom Brady like 4 years ago (one of the most overused avatars)... so much for that... or did Tom Brady pass it to Cutler this year instead? Lmao
     
  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Does anyone believe that if RT played for the Pats instead of the Dolphins he would be a Super Bowl winning QB?
     
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  25. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Ok I was following until this point divide 54 by 4-1? why 4-1?
     
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    From cbrad's post: "Dividing by number of elements in the set minus 1 is harder to explain but it's an adjustment necessary to get an unbiased estimate when taking samples from a distribution (basic reason is that if you know the mean of let's say 10 numbers, you only need to know 9 of those numbers to predict the last one because you already know the mean.. an intuition behind the "minus 1" part). And unlike absolute values, you can do calculus on squares and square roots."
     
  27. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Good question.

    No way to know really. Albeit his "chance" for overall success would have been higher due to the foundation in place over there. But they do run a very advanced passing system - not sure if he'd fit that quite right.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Stop.

    No one cares who else says what.

    No one cares what other people say about other QBs.

    No one cares what you think another QB would do in a situation.

    If you think what Aqua has done and said is inaccurate than match his effort to prove him wrong. If you don't or can't then you come across like a Neanderthal telling NASA they cannot send a person to the moon, cause "great night shiny too small for man make stand".
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    BS.

    Travis is effusively praising him BECAUSE he's done the work and did a deep dive on his play. Travis was not in love with Thill before he really started his project. The deep and thorough analysis is what turned Travis from a hopeful but cautious of Thill person into a full on Thill bandwagon driver.

    And it is THAT reason the push back is maddening.

    In fact, there's virtually no one who has done a similar deep dive analysis of every Thill snap that doesn't come away a fan. That goes for Travis to Cian Fahey to Adam Effing Gase.
     
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  30. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    There's a small part of me that appreciates their optimism.

    The main problem is that we're no longer talking about a 24 or a 25 year old. We're not talking about a DeShaun Watson who flashed last year and then tore his knee or a guy like Wentz who was an MVP candidate. We're talking about a 30 year old (in July) fresh off an ACL tear who has not 100% acclimated himself to this offense for an entire 16 game season. The guy has been as inconsistent as the rest of the franchise for his entire tenure as a Dolphin.

    People are kidding themselves if they think a 30 something won't lose a bit of his athleticism - especially since he's more than likely going to be sporting a brace. He will also have to overcome the mental aspect of playing on that knee. There's going to be a serious period of adjustment for him and then what are we talking about? 31? 32? I haven't even brought up the state of flux the offense is in, particularly if Landry leaves and we jettison Parker or the task of completing the O-line.

    We're past the point of "they keys belong to Tannehill." That's exactly the kind of shortsighted thing the PT Parnum era has been known for though. Factors beyond Tannehill's talents or "flashes" are shouting at the Dolphins to double down and insure themselves. It's called "acceptance" and attempting to set yourself up for a win-win. This franchise needs to learn when to get ahead of the curve and not become so reactionary .......... that's what nets them players like Jay Cutler.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    First off, you're being baited....DON'T BE BAITED!

    You're completely right, of course, but that's besides the point in an Internet argument. It's freaking impossible to beat the, "I know you are but what am I" thought process that some people deliver to a well thought-out post. Travis and Cbrad do a great job breaking down highly technical stuff so average fans can understand it and people SHOULD appreciate the effort....even when they don't agree. Heck, I disagree with both of them often, but I have mad respect for those guys and the insights that they share.

    The same is true for the folks who have been doing draft analysis- it's fun to read even when I don't agree or have any idea who some of the players they're naming actually are.

    So this message is for everyone- when you see someone put together a 6+ paragraph post with images and analysis, remember that they're doing it voluntarily to keep the board alive and interesting. Don't try to pee in their Corn Flakes because they love this site- that's just not a cool thing to do. Learn to be respectful, even when you think they're bat-**** crazy at times with their thoughts and ideas.
     
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  32. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Absolutely.
    Tannehill’s biggest asset has been his coachability, and if you put him in an environment where the other 10 players are doing what they’re supposed to then his performance would easily be playoff caliber. Add in a competent and reliable defense and that’s a SB winning recipe.
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. the technical reason is hard to explain really. But it comes down to looking at the average of the variances (which are the squares of the standard deviations) of all possible samples you can take from a population. You want the average sample variance to equal the variance of the population. If it does, it's an unbiased estimate.

    So.. let's say we have a set C = {-5,3,6,2} and you take every possible sample, like {3,2} and {3,6,2} and {-5,6} etc.. and you calculate the variance for each of them. Average all the variances of these "samples" together by using 4-1 instead of 4 in the denominator and you'll get the same as the variance of the original set C when dividing by 4. And remember it's not "4" vs. "4-1" in general but N vs. N-1 where N is the number of elements in your sample.

    Like I said.. this one can't be explained in simple non-mathematical terms so you'll just have to trust me on this, or trust any other source like wiki:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

    Just so it's clear, if you're taking the standard deviation of a population (like all US citizens) and you're not taking a sample from the population (e.g. 1000 randomly chosen citizens) then you DO divide by N = total number of citizens. But for sample standard deviations to be unbiased (give the same result on average as the true standard deviation of the population) it turns out you should divide by N-1.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018
  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I disagree about the Kirk Cousins part simply because of salary. If you’re the phins you pick Cousins or Tannehill and only pay one of them starting QB money.

    But it is time to draft a replacement for Tannehill. Whether thats at #11 or in the 2nd or 3rd round is the $64,000 dollar question. When your starting QB gets injured, which is to be expected in the NFL, you need to have plan B ready.
     
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  35. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Back in the day they'd burn you at the stake for your wizadry. I understand Ralph Wiggums 100% right now.

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I appreciate the work. Takes time to put that kind of thing together.

    I just don't appreciate the tone he takes when anyone questions his work or methodology.
     
  37. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Cause haters gon hate
     

    Attached Files:

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  38. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Effusive praise is fine. Hypebole is different. I don't care if he only loves Tannehill after reviewing the film. That's fine.

    Someone took issue with him saying Ryan Tannehill runs like a RB. It was hyperbole, but there isn't really anything wrong with it. I'm just telling Aqua, if you're in a thread defending your objectivity, you can expect people will take issue with the hyperbole. I was talking about Travis' reaction to the reaction to the twitter post. I'm talking specifically about this:

    Just saying, don't step onto the battlefield and then get surprised when you get shot at. That's all.

    As for Adam Gase. Jay Cutler. That's all I gotta say about that. Gase might be a great coach, but his personnel abilities is TBD (Doughty?)
     
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  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you're going to write, then may you should develop thicker skin. You see how much derision Cian Fahey gets for his dismissive attitude. Don't be that guy. Or be that guy, if that's what you want. It's your life. When you put yourself out there, expect to get criticism no matter what.

    Who's the guy over at NFL Films that watches a LOT of film? Cosell? Go read the comments of any article where he's quoted, and you see posters calling him out left and right. It comes with the territory.
     
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  40. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But you ain't in the club. We out here now. This is pretty tame for what's happened in the mains :D.

    [​IMG]
     
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