Mike Wallace being shopped by Miami Dolphins

Why not reference 2013,2014?? He still had Hartline to throw too

 

Uh, because in those years we were trying to force the ball downfield to our expensive new toy (at least in 2013), while Hartline was phased out. Not saying I agree with how the offense handled Hartline, but that was what happened.

 

He was a rookie that year. It stands to reason he'd do more poorly throwing downfield that year, not significantly better.

Hartline wasn't in the downfield role in 2013 or 2014. Wallace was.

 

Also, I recall a couple great passes to Hartline deep, that he promptly dropped.

RT's fault though.

 

Force it huh....to the guy wide open....pretty pathetic excuse. Par for the course.

Maybe that's because the numbers were not as good even in 2012 as you would like to believe, there were 2 deep TDs that season and one was Hartlines infamous 80 yd busted coverage TD that created some mythical theory for apologists to hang their hats on. And now when you are asked why hasn't it happened since?? You claim Hartline hasnt ran a vertical route...typical.

It is no secret to anybody Ryan simply has been BAD thus far in his young career at hitting his man on a vertical route, why not simply accept it and hope it develops.

 

Occam's Razor would also apply to Wallace's tiny catch radius, it can also be that simple.

Great downfield accuracy is still under 50%. Which means, its hard to do.

For example....

Throwing a ball 40 yards into a moving 3 foot circle is hard. Throwing a ball 40 yards into a moving 6 foot circle is less hard.

 

IMO, having pass protection that was at least average compared to the rest of the league would help RT complete more of those deep passes.

 

Once again, all this stuff is adjudicated by the fact that in 2012, when Wallace was receiving passes from Ben Roethlisberger in the more timing-oriented offense that was implemented that year, he actually performed worse that year than he did in 2014, in the timing-oriented offense he was in with Miami.

What you see in both cases (2012 and 2014) is that the percentage of downfield passes Wallace was thrown that were catchable was dramatically lower than the percentage of them he was thrown between 2009 and 2011.

Given that Wallace was with Roethlisberger for the previous three years, what that says is that Wallace is ill-suited to a more timing-oriented offense and doesn't present as advantageous a downfield target to the QB in such an offense, and that's entirely consistent with his being a mere 3rd-round pick despite running a 4.33 40 at the combine.

 

Probably not to Wallace, however, because Pittsburgh's offensive line was no worse in 2012 than it was in 2011, Wallace's best season as a pro.

 

Yep. That Cardinals game really inflated the numbers for Hartline. Two plays. A blown coverage on one for 80 yards and a double move for 50 on another. Both in a game where he was seeing press coverage w little or no safety help, coverages that Wallace can only dream of seeing on a regular basis.

 

Film, what's that?

 

I like how its the terrible catch radius of Wallace fault but never the fact that The balls are usually underthrown deep, Wallace actually has to stop his route and comeback to it and it is almost always easier to defend an underthrown ball than an overthrow. I rather Tannehill overthrow the ball every single time than underthrow Wallace.

 

How is it that I say they were forcing balls to Wallace, and Fin turns that into me bagging on Wallace? If Tannehill is struggling to connect deep with a guy, and we keep dialing up those plays, is that forcing it? Yes.

They other reason that helps explain the Wallace problem, is that he doesn't look open early in his routes, often, leading to late throws, which results in off target throws.

 

I never understood the negativity on the double move. What is wrong with running good routes?

 

Interesting new excuse. Wallace doesn't get open early enough....this is funny

 

That's not new. It's been said multiple times over his stay here, by different posters.

 

And you'll see the same such film of Roethlisberger throwing "crap deep balls" to Wallace in 2012, when the percentage of catchable downfield passes Wallace was thrown by Roethlisberger was actually lower than the percentage of such passes he was thrown by Tannehill in 2014. How exactly should one explain that?

This is why "film" can give you just enough information to stop at whatever explanation you prefer, especially when your analysis of film fails to go beyond the Miami Dolphins and consider what's happening through the rest of the league.

 

I wonder which two?

 

You're not understanding what I mean.

Its hard for EVERY QB, even the ones that might be great at it. So much so that most complete less than 50% which is a failing grade in almost anything. You're talking the difference between the best and worst might be a couple of percentage points, but still below 50%. That's a catch or two over a season. Big Rape might be able to hit a 3 foot window 40 yards down the field, while Tannehill might be able to hit a 6 ft window 40 yards down the field, but that is not what makes Big Rape better than Tannehill. It is not what separates great QBs from not great QBs.

The narrative has been created that the benchmark for judging QB greatness is the long ball. That's false. Tannehill has an average long ball with a WR with below average catch radius and below average route running. Yes, it would be great if Tannehill went from average to above average, then that would make up for Wallace's deficiencies, like Big Rape did. That doesn't mean the Wallace deep ball issues are all or even mostly Tannehill's fault however.

 

It's not just a catch or two over a season if you take into account the threat of the deep ball. Hard to quantify that, but I don't think teams respect Tannehill's deep ball (and thus adjust their defensive game plan) as much as for "Big Rape".

 

That was the year Pittsburgh implemented an offense similar to the one Miami's been running since Wallace has been here, and so you essentially have three years of good downfield play in a non-timing-oriented offense (2009 to 2011), and three years of relatively bad downfield play in a timing-oriented offense (2012 to 2014). If you don't consider that relevant in terms of how well suited Wallace is to such an offense, we'll have to agree to disagree about that.

Do you have any film of the bad deep balls Wallace was thrown by Roethlisberger in 2012, when the percentage of such balls was even higher than the percentage he was thrown by Tannehill in 2014, or are you just cherry-picking that single good one and passing it off as representing the whole year?

 

Well, again, you have three years of good downfield performance in a non-timing-oriented offense (2009 to 2011), and three years of relatively bad downfield performance in a timing-oriented offense (2012 to 2014, one of them with the same QB he'd previously done well with).

And again, that fits with the fact that Wallace was mere third-round pick despite running a 4.33 40 at the combine, largely because he wasn't viewed as well-rounded enough to perform well in such offenses.

There's a reason why Kevin White has vaulted himself into perhaps the top five overall of the draft by running a 4.35 at the combine, while Mike Wallace's 4.33 at the combine failed to vault him any higher than the 3rd round. That reason is showing itself in his inability to perform well downfield in timing-oriented offenses. There are just some traits players have, and other traits they do not.

 

Jim, you just made his point about receivers who run fast.

Fin-omenal...why is it you go back to this stance of Wallace can do no wrong so often? Clearly, Wallace is not a complete receiver. Just admit it, and let it go. You can see it with Tannehill, but not Wallace? I mean, you creep on my posts, and make all these accusations my way about not being fair, but I've said many times that Tannehill has issues he needs to fix, and is part of the reason for the deep ball struggles. You can't even admit that Wallace runs bad routes, and has a tiny catch radius, and also bears responsibility in the deep ball struggles. I just don't get it.

 

No, it doesn't, but there are several examples in recent history of receivers who have vaulted up the draft boards primarily on the basis of a 40 time, or of speed alone. Darius Heyward-Bey, Troy Williamson, Tavon Austin, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Ted Ginn. All of those receivers were drafted in the top 20 overall. Of course not all of them have gone on to be successful, but it should make one wonder why Mike Wallace wasn't drafted higher than the mere 3rd round, despite running an ultra-fast 4.33.

The main point, really, is that Wallace was never viewed as having the traits (other than speed) to succeed at a high level in the NFL, and the most likely explanation for his career trajectory at this point -- again given three years of good downfield play in a non-timing pass offense, and three years of relatively bad downfield play in a timing-oriented pass offense -- is that he just so happened to find the precise mix of ingredients (quarterback and offensive scheme) during his first three years to enable his most unique trait -- speed -- to make him succeed the way he did. Ever since that precise mix of ingredients has changed (2012), he's been nowhere near the same player.

 

Didnt mean it as a negative, it was a good play by him. He'd beaten Cromartie with the same move a week earlier in OT vs the Jets. But instead of going for the end zone he fell down like he always does, Carpenter missed the FG, we lost the game, but I digress..

The point is that AZ was showing him no respect, they showed our pass game as a whole no respect, and Tannehill lit them up for 400+. With Wallace on board nobody is playing us the way the Cardinals did. The notion that our downfield pass game was better in 2012 is total stat driven fantasy that ignores the nuances of the game.

 

Hahaha, pot meet kettle. Get the analytics guy to go back and see who has been less objective. Creep your posts? This is a message board incase you forgot, and im within my rights to comment on your posts, if you do not like my replies simply hit ignore. Until then dont be shocked if when you make comments i feel are bad i call you out on.

 

Yes, creep my posts. As in, read into my posts, and then make posts about what I said, that are nowhere close to inline with what I was saying. Like when I said they forced the ball to Wallace, and you turn it into me going after Wallace, which I wasn't.

You are within your rights to comment. Just try to be a little more objective in regards to your boy Wallace. It's becoming apparent that the Dolphins don't seem to share your enthusiasm for him, so maybe he's not as perfect as you try to make him seem.

 

Wallace has his share of shortcomings, getting open deep isnt one of them. Now, because this may mean Ryan is responsible for the bulk of the blame with the deep ball...you refute it.

I rarely see you post anything that isnt a "i must defend my Ryan" type post. Its always the Wr, the coach, the OL, the wind...

 

There are several reasons for this:

1. You choose to ignore the posts I make where I ascribe blame to Tannehill.
2. There have been a slew of people over past 6-8 months making ridiculous statements about Tannehill, and I've had many discussions with them. So, it skews the amount of "pro-Tannehill" posts I make.

Again, the evidence of Wallace in timing based offenses isn't good. Tannephins and I rarely agree, but y certainly no problem throwing out his arguments about Wallace, simply because it refutes your assertion that Tannehill is almost wholly to blame for the deep ball issue. Essentially, you are everything you accuse me of, just on Wallace's side. Difference between us is, I have no problem seeing Tannehill shortcomings, but you can't really see Wallace's. I mean, for as much as you act like I hate Wallace, I've been publicly on board for a long, LONG time with keeping Wallace. Weird, isn't it?

 

The offensive line in Pittsburgh was no worse, statistically speaking, in 2012 than it was in 2011, and neither of them were worse than Miami's line in 2014.

Here's what we know about downfield passing to Wallace in 2012 and 2014: in 2012 he was targeted 31 times on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield, and 8 of those passes (25.8%) were catchable; in 2014 he was targeted 24 times on such passes, and 7 of them (29.2%) were catchable.

So in similar offenses, Ryan Tannehill actually performed better throwing downfield to Mike Wallace in 2014 than Ben Roethlisberger did in 2012.