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MLB Math Question I need help on...

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by CashInFist, Jul 25, 2015.

  1. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Here's what I am trying to figure out:

    You have one batter that's average is .200 and another batter that's average is .300.

    If they bat back-to-back throughout the game, what is the probability (% chance) that one of them will get a hit at any given time between them, taking away all other variables? I am wondering because I was thinking about a Pirates situation the other day and was debating whether they should sacrifice bunt or swing away. I've never tried to figure out the probability combining two players getting a hit before and I'm having difficulty with the math here.

    FYI, it was Travis Ishikawa and Chris Stewart batting in that order, and I was hoping Clint Hurdle would have had Ishikawa sacrifice bunt in that particular situation. He let Ishikawa swing away and he struck out. I wanted to see if Hurdle made the right decision or not, so I rounded Ishikawa's batting average to .200 and Stewart's to .300 to simplify (that is almost exactly what both of their averages were anyway).

    Does anybody know how to figure out the exact probability in this scenario?
     
  2. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Yes the correct answer is you almost never sacrifice bunt as you're giving the other team an automatic out and you only have 27 of them a game so swing the bat and hope for the best.

    Honestly though no clue what the correct math answer is but it all depends on the situation, score, team, inning etc to determine whether Hurdle made the right call or not.
     
    CashInFist likes this.
  3. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

    10,109
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    This is what one person that I asked answer was. But, I never took calculus and it looks like Chinese to me. LOL

    Can any math wizards out there verify this?:

     
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Club Member

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    I don't care what math says. There are always times when a sacrifice bunt is a smart move, based on the situation and the batter involved. NL style small ball forever! :up:
     
  5. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    So you don't care about the truth, just your own opinion on bunting...heard.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Club Member

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    If you have a position player who sucks with the bat, or is in the middle of a cold streak, or just happens to be anti-clutch, then IMO it can make all the sense in the world to have him move over a batter with a bunt, especially if you have a team that's struggling to score runs. Frankly, if you have a situation where you have men on 1st and 2nd with no outs, and the guy up isn't one of your best hitters, then I say bunting is the smart move. Get guys on 2nd and 3rd with one out, and give yourself a chance to drive a few in rather than hit into the DP.

    If you're a fan of a team that tends to have a good offense, or one who tends to do well with timely hitting, then it may be harder to get behind this, I get it. Especially if you usually watch AL ball.
     

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