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Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Apr 28, 2022.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 2, 2016
    I know the Dolphins aren't drafting in the first round, but I do always like to briefly offer my thoughts on the first round and a few extra odds and ends.

    2022 NFL Mock Draft


    Here are the rules that I have placed upon myself. I do not forecast trades in the mock draft because things will quickly get out of hand. In a highly unpredictable setting, I choose to deal with certainties and not uncertainties. I have made my picks based on whom I think each team will take - not who they should take. I have also taken the liberty to grade the pick based on a multitude of different elements including, but not limited to: fit, value, and need. This being said, do not consider the draft grade necessarily a grade on the player. In order to help you understand my thought process, let’s consider one of the more intriguing draft prospects of the 2022 draft class, Malik Willis.

    Unfortunately, I am not particularly high on Willis as a prospect. I think that he is one of the rawest quarterbacks ever selected in the first round, and he may be as far as two years away from becoming a starting quarterback in the league. If a team like Carolina who needs to win now drafts him with the expectation that Willis is going to come in and save everyone’s jobs, I would go as far as to grade this an F- pick. That being said, if a team like Minnesota who has Cousins under contract for this season and the following season selected him, I would grade the pick a C-. Although both are less than ideal grades, there is a fairly sizeable gap for the same player. That is why it is important to read the write-up for each draft pick and use that information on draft day to evaluate the fit with the player’s actual new team. Fit really does matter.

    How to watch the draft – For the first time, I am actually offering a bit of advice on how you should consume this draft. Prior to turning on the draft, I ask you to look into the mirror and ask yourself, “Are you “floor guy” or are you “ceiling guy?” Interestingly enough, this draft is filled with two types of players: polished, but not physically gifted players and raw, but physically gifted players. Are you the type of player that would be okay with using a first-round pick to select and average to good starter in the league, or are you willing to take a chance at a pro-bowler with the potential of drafting a bust? Honestly, the right answer is probably contingent on your team’s situation. If you’re the GM of the Jets or Texans, you just need to land good players, but if you’re the GM of the Chargers, you might be thinking that one more superstar could be the reason that you are hoisting a Lombardi Trophy in January. Finally, for all the draft connoisseurs out there, we get to see GM’s show a bit more of their hands than in previous years. One of my favorite lies in all of sports is when GMs say “they draft the best player available.” This year, some of the “best players” are in non-premium positions and certainly will be “available” when a lot of teams are on the clock… We shall see.

    Okay, enough blabber, on to the fun stuff!


    1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, EDGE Georgia

    The silver lining in the Urban Myer fiasco is that the Jaguars again have the first pick in the draft. There is lots of pre-draft fodder around this pick. Some are saying that Doug Pederson wants to go offense here (it would be a huge reach) and others say that the upside of Trevon Walker will make him the pick.

    At the end of the day, we get answers to the questions that we didn’t ask. Why did Jim Harbaugh not work in San Fran despite on the field success? Why did Byron Leftwich back out of a triumphant return to Jacksonville as the head coach? Trent Balke. Staying true to form, Trent Balke swings for the fences with Walker.

    There has been no bigger beneficiary of the NFL combine than Travon Walker. He measured off the charts, and his draft stock has steadily risen almost as much as the excuses for his lack of production. His fans argued that the scheme did not ask him to rush the passer like most teams. He certainly is versatile and able play OLB and even drop back in coverage.

    Ultimately, the legend of Travon Walker has surpassed the man. Scouts are telling us that he can do things that we never actually saw him do consistently… Because scheme. There are a ton of physically gifted players each year that were not very productive. I do not think we can simply assume that he would have been more productive in a different system. His talents will keep him in the league for a long time, but at what level?

    D


    2. Detroit Lions – Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE Michigan

    Talk about one of the unluckiest of all franchises. The Lions have positioned themselves with two first round picks at the early stages of yet another rebuild. Here they are in a primo position to select a QB, but there is no QB to take. In a draft night shocker, the Lions luck turns around as they keep Aiden Hutchinson in Michigan.

    The Lions rush to the podium and select the best edge guy in the draft at #2. Hutchinson is an incredibly powerful and highly disruptive player. The stat sheet will never do him justice because he affects a ton of plays by getting pressure or moving the QB. On my draft notes, I called him “Houdini” for his ability to escape blocks.

    The knock on him is that he does not have the speed that previous ends drafted in this position have. This may be true, but he does have a solid closing burst. He also does have shorter than desired arms that could be a liability against rangy tackles. I do think it is a bit unfair to call him a ceiling guy because he lacks the freakish measurables of a Bosa or a Chase Young.

    A



    3. Houston Texans – Evan Neal, LT Alabama

    The Texans are like a worse version of the Lions. They traded Deshaun Watson knowing full well that they would eventually need to upgrade beyond Davis Mills. They knew when making the trade that there is no real upgrade to Mills at the #3 spot. With multiple teams in the mix, they could have predicated any deal on getting a viable starter in return. They didn’t and now they are in a predicament.

    The rumors are swirling that the Texans are looking to take a corner at this spot, and I just don’t believe it. In the most Texans move of all, they come full circle from the Bill O’Brien debacle when he mortgaged the farm to land Laremy Tunsil. The Texans entertained parting with Tunsil earlier this year which leads me to believe that they would move on if they could. Additionally, it is clearly evident that Houston really, really loves running backs, and having Tunsil and Neal for a year would solidify their line.

    Neal really is a solid pass blocker who effectively can win one-on-one battles with his man. Neal also has a second gear when back peddling that will allow for him to have success against speed rushers. I think that the Caserio will revert back to his days in New England and lean on the relative safety of drafting a big bodied lineman from Alabama. Although Houston does not select the best lineman in the draft, they do get a solid player.

    A

    4. New York Jets – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB Cincinnati

    I think that the genesis of the “Texans want a corner” story is more about trying to bait the Jets to use their extra draft picks to move up in the draft. I really do think that the Jets can sweat it out and stand put.

    If Sauce Gardner is available, Robert Saleh should run that card to the podium personally. With Diggs, Waddle, and now Hill in the division, the Jets know that they need to defend the pass, and they have one of the best prospects in years. Gardner has a thick and rangy frame that will help him take on bigger defenders. Famously, Gardner has never given up a touchdown pass in his college career, and it is not a fluke. I literally stopped watching his film because I got bored of watching teams (even Alabama) not throw in his direction.

    Gardner does need to do better in run support, but he is as clean of a prospect that I have seen in years.

    A+

    5. New York Giants – Ikem Ekwonu, LT NC State

    The Giants have a ton of players fighting for their jobs, and I get the distinct feeling that in a year or two, the team will look vastly different. I think that this is one of the most likely spots in the draft to forecast a trade. The Giants are going to need multiple players to reshape their team and may be willing to take a little bit less if a team is willing to move up to get a QB here.

    Andrew Thomas is one of those players who was spotty, and he could slide over to RT. Drafting Ekwonu would be an absolute home run. He has a massive frame and elite power. I saw the man deliver more pancakes than IHOP. Ekwonu is incredibly raw, and I have seen him absolutely dominate on raw ability. Early on, he could find difficulties in edge technicians. Ekwonu has the upside to be the best tackle in the league one day.

    A+

    6. Carolina Panthers – Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh

    This may very well be the worst position in all of football. Sam Darnold is about to get a lot of people fired. The Panthers really should have cleaned house at the end of last season. This could very well be a case of one regime picking the QB of the future for the next regime. This pick will most likely directly impact their chance at landing a premiere coach next season. What compounds their problems even further is the fact that Carolina does not have a second or third round pick. In a move of desperation, the Panthers do wind up taking Kenny Pickett.

    In my mind, Kenny Pickett screams backup. He was a great college QB that was able to lift his team against more dominant opponents. One of the greatest compliments that I can give Pickett is his ability to raise the level of those around him. Pickett has an average arm but good accuracy. He thrives in intermediate passes. I think he throws off his back foot too often and correcting his mechanics could impact his velocity. Pickett is more athletic than he is given credit for and can navigate a broken pocket quite well. One thing that really does transition to NFL success or failure is hand size. Pickett will have the smallest hands of a starting QB in the league once he makes his first start.

    What happens when the coaching staff realizes that Darnold is better than Pickett?

    C

    7. New York Giants – Derek Stingley Jr., CB LSU

    The Giants are back again with their second pick inside the top ten. It appears as if the Giants will be parting with James Bradberry in one way or another for cap reasons. This will immediately create a void where one of the boom-or-bust prospects could wind up landing.

    If you happened to watch the early film on Stingley, you would be wowed. Going in the top ten seemed almost certain. He is incredibly athletic with fluid hips. He was able to cover SEC receivers quite tightly. Then the injuries started piling up. The fact of the matter is that he has only played in 10 games in the last two years. Teams have to fear that this could be part of a larger trend.

    B


    8. Atlanta Falcons – Garrett Wilson, WR The Ohio State University

    Here we are in yet another sticky situation. The Matt Ryan era is over, and they gave Marcus Mariota a short-term deal. I am not a big Mariota fan, but I think he is a better option than the other QBs in the draft. Regardless of who is QB in Atlanta, they are going to need someone other than Kyle Pitts to throw the ball to. Calvin Ridley really complicated their situation by gambling on sports and landing an indefinite suspension. Ridley had previously left the team to deal with personal issues, and Atlanta was already looking to trade him. Realistically, one has to wonder what the market will be for him if and when he is able to return.

    Somehow Garrett Wilson has emerged as the #1 WR in the draft. Ironically, I watched a ton of Ohio State football and never thought that he was the #1 WR on his own team. Wilson is a pure speed guy with great feet. Quite often he got “college open” for deep balls, and I wondered what would happen if he was forced to make more contested catches deep down field. I do think he will help Mariota in his ability to use his feet to get open in shorter or intermediate routes. I do wonder if Wilson was the recipient of being on a great team with multiple NFL receivers. In fairness, Brian Hartline has done a great job of preparing guys for the NFL level.

    B

    9. Seattle Seahawks – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE Oregon

    If Carolina was the worst situation in all of football, Seattle certainly is the weirdest. After getting a haul of picks for Russell Wilson, it was believed that Drew lock was a “throw in” player. With QBs moving all over in the offseason, the Seahawks really were inactive in the moving and shaking. They have the 9th pick in the draft, so it is not even a certainty that a QB that they covet would even be here. Time to grab your tinfoil hats. I think Drew Lock is the plan.

    Thibodeaux is one of the great stories of the draft. Early mocks had him going #1 overall and he certainly has the exceptional athleticism that warrants a top five pick. Almost paradoxically, Thibodeaux is disruptive and productive but not a disruptor. Critics worry about his desire and passion, and I tend to see those concerns in his play. It’s like a light switch. Sometimes it is on. Sometimes it is off. When it is on, there are those moments in which you see what could be.

    Seattle is definitely a team that will try and hit homeruns, but I fear that this could be another in a recent trend of suspect draft choices.

    C+

    10. New York Jets – Drake London, WR USC

    The cat got let out of the bag when the Jets tried to acquire Tyreek Hill. Drake London is another boom-or-bust prospect. London, a former basketball player, has an enormous frame and solid footwork sort of plays WR like a basketball player. His ability to turn 50-50 balls into 75-25 balls could help give the gunslinger, Zach Wilson someone to throw the ball up to. London was highly productive in college.

    There is an elephant in the room. London is slow especially coming off the line. He really isn’t a RAC guy either. London is coming off of an ankle injury and has refused to run the 40 if that’s the story you believe. After years of talent evaluation, I have noticed a trend that the freaky size-speed WRs are the type to bust. London does not have the speed. Also, London was dominant but against lesser competition in the PAC. I have reservations about whether he could ever live up to a top 10 pick billing.

    C

    11. Washington Commanders – Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame

    The Commanders are now the third team to buy into Carson Wentz, and it has me a bit nervous especially with a lot of uncertainty in the WR unit. Terry McClaurin wants a new contract and Curtis Samuel was not on the field a lot. Part of me thinks that they could get Wentz another target. Part of me thinks they could draft a QB.

    Washington actually winds up getting really lucky and can add another elite player on the defense. Hamilton is a big, physical safety that can play all over the field much like Derwin James. His on-field speed eclipses his 40 time. He is an absolute playmaker. Hamilton does need to work on tackling higher.

    The Commanders get a top four player outside the top 10.

    A+

    12. Minnesota Vikings – Trent McDuffie, CB Washington

    The Minnesota Viking’s are perpetually looking to replace Kirk Cousins. At this point, they are afforded the opportunity to draft Malik Willis and give him time to develop. However, the Vikings do not pull the trigger and are forced to reach. They seem to keep going to the Patrick Peterson well, but eventually it will run dry. There really is not a lot of depth behind them, and they were really hoping Stingley or Gardner would have been here.

    McDuffie has an average frame and played a lot of zone in college. He has fluid hips and is really aggressive in attacking the run which could match up well against their division. His strong tackling ability has allowed him to minimize RAC yards. Because of stylistic play and weaker competition, I did not get to really see him cover competitive receiver talent.

    C+

    13. Houston Texans –Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE Florida State

    Houston’s gamble to pass on an edge guy at three pays off big time as one of my favorite players in the draft falls to them. Jermaine Johnson is an incredibly athletic player that flies off the line. He was able to line up on many spots on the line but probably won’t be able to at the next level. He is effective in the run game and is a disrupter. He needs to work on his body control, and a guy like Lovie Smith could really help him become more refined.

    A

    14. Baltimore Ravens – Devin Lloyd, LB Utah

    The Ravens do what they always do – draft good football players. As teams move to more nickel bases, the need for a lot of linebackers have drastically decreased, and hence, their value has diminished. That being said, Devin Lloyd is the modern NFL LB. He is a converted WR with a great physical build. More importantly, he is great in pass coverage. He is an instinctual player who is still learning the position. Within the division, this pick makes a ton of sense knowing that he will face Chubb, Mixon, Hunt, Harris, and Watson on the ground.

    A

    15. Philadelphia Eagles – Chris Olave, WR The Ohio State University

    It is kind of wild to think that the Eagles may very well elect to draft a WR in the first round for three consecutive years. Jaylon Reager has proven to be a huge miss and there is not a lot in terms of better options behind him. Howie Roseman has positioned himself to give Jalen Hurts one last shot while having the ammo to move up draft boards next year to find a replacement if things do not work out.

    I watched a lot of Ohio State football and distinctly remember thinking to myself, “I’d like him on my team.” Like Wilson, Olave is the beneficiary of a deep room of WRs coached up by Brian Hartline. Olave turned heads at the combine by running a blazing 40 time. He has very light feet and is smooth in his routes. I liked seeing him make contested catching and demonstrate his ability to adjust and track balls.

    A

    16. New Orleans Saints – Charles Cross, LT Mississippi State

    Lemme tell you a most curious tale. The Saints made a deal with the Eagles in order to get two picks in this year’s first round – the 16 and the 19. Now the story goes that they have targeted two players that they are confident they could get at 16 and 19. My humble rebuttal is, “How could you possibly know who or who would not be available at 16?” “Do you really think that you are so smart that you have found a prospect that nobody else knows about?” Or more simply put, “Are you lying?” Curiously, the Saints have just enough ammo to get into the top 5. Certainly, they must be eying a QB then, right? I have seen Mickey Loomis move up to grab Drew Brees’s replacement multiple times… Only to draft a different position. Keep an eye on this one.

    If Charles Cross fell to the Saints here, I think they would be hard pressed to pass. Cross is the third of three LT prospects that I really like. He would immediately fill the void left by Terron Armstead and start day one. I love this player. Cross is a smart kid who can see plays develop and knows his role. He can meet power with power and win against strong edge rushers. He is quite athletic and hopefully with work to maximize his potential against speed rushers.

    A+

    17. Los Angeles Chargers – Trevor Penning, OT Northern Iowa

    The Chargers are stacked with talent and ready to make a Super Bowl run. They do not have a glaring need but shoring up the offensive line could help. Unfortunately, Penning is a guy that looks like a dominant lineman, but his play does not mirror his looks. Penning is a guy that has moved up a ton since the combine based on his measurables.

    But when you watch his film, he is raw. I do not mind drafting a guy that is coming from weaker competition, but in order for me to get behind that, I want to see him dominate weaker competition. I did not see that. In fact, it felt like he got moved out of position a lot. I think that he is going to need a lot of coaching to develop him.

    D

    18. Philadelphia Eagles – Jordan Davis, DT Georgia

    The Eagles are preparing themselves for life without Fletcher Cox and see Jordan Davis as his replacement. The 340 pounder is an absolute behemoth of a man. Simply put, there are few humans on Earth built like him. He is strong and moves decently well for his size. I hate doing player comparisons, but he reminds me of Dan Wilkinson – a guy who had a 13-year career, but on a lot of different teams. Here is the perplexing thing about drafting him here. You are drafting him knowing he will only be so good, but in doing so, you are hoping others can be great.

    B

    19. New Orleans Saints – Jameson Williams, WR Alabama

    Jameson Williams is another storyline that I eagerly await to see unfold on draft night. Williams suffered an ACL injury in the National Championship game, and his status in 2022 is somewhat in doubt. This year, there a lot of teams drafting early with uncertain futures, and the writing is on the wall that the franchise needs to start winning sooner rather than later. Because of that, I think some teams at the top will elect to go in another direction rather than wait. The Saints lack depth at WR, and are seemingly perpetually on the cusp of trading Michael Thomas. So, the selection of Williams makes sense.

    Some things are worth the wait. Williams is my highest graded WR coming out of the draft. Williams flies off the line with a good sudden burst. He has great feet that allows for him to use great stop-and-go maneuvers. He is a modern-day NFL WR that a team could ask to take on non-traditional roles beyond the passing game. Williams has moxie and self-confidence on the field to rise his level of play to elite competition. I do see him as a potential super star in the league.

    Here is the one mystery about Jameson Williams. Why did he play so poorly at Ohio State that he needed to transfer?

    A+

    20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Malik Willis, QB Liberty

    One of the great joys in life is being right. That being said, I feel incredibly confident that I got this pick wrong. In a classic case of double-think, I hold two contradictory beliefs at the same time: Willis will go in the top 12, and I cannot envision any of the teams drafting in the top 12 taking him. So, now we get to Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett is their guy. Trading multiple first round picks to get Pickett would be insanity. The Steelers have traditionally been a slow and steady franchise willing to give players and coaches time to adapt, and that is what Willis needs.

    Willis is probably the rawest QB that I have seen taken in the first round since Tim Tebow. He is getting drafted because he does have all the tools. The football explodes out of his hand, and he can make all the throws. He is athletic and has overstated speed. What makes him different is the way he carries the ball. He runs like a RB. You will see his highlight reel on draft night, and I implore you to watch closely. You will see a lot of plays break down, Willis scramble, defenders bite, and him toss a lob to a wide open guy. These plays don’t really exist in the NFL. One thing that separates Willis from Pickett is that when they are outgunned, Pickett rises to the challenge and Willis crumbles. Watching Liberty vs. Ole Miss, I legitimately saw him heave and hope. I think that he is a solid two years away from starting.

    C-

    Aside – I have never done this, but I want to help readers analyze his eventual landing spot. Here are a few questions to ask yourself about his landing spots. Is the coach/franchise in a situation where they could both comfortably wait two seasons to start Willis, or will they face immediate pressure to start him now? Forcibly putting Willis on the field early will not only result in a coach’s firing, but also make hiring a replacement more difficult. How will the organization develop him without playing him? One of the reasons that I am so low on Willis is that this question doesn’t have a lot of good answers. His problems do not stem from not knowing the game; they come from him not understanding the moment. The preseason will be good for him, but once you enter the regular season, the starter gets most of the first team reps in practice. This creates a catch-22. Giving Willis more reps hurts the team in the short term. Increasing his reps, actually increases a team’s problems. Let’s say the team goes from 20% of reps, to 30%, to 40%. Eventually, someone will ask the question, “Wouldn’t we be better off just starting him and giving him 100% of the reps?” And that is how QBs wind up starting before they are ready.


    21. New England Patriots – Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas

    All of last season, I was told of Bill Belichick’s brilliance as he found Brady’s successor and that the sun will never set on the Patriots’ dynasty. In a Bizzarro World more colloquy know as “the truth,” New England won on solid defense and heavy run. I’ll never forget the Mac Jones performance against the division rival, Buffalo Bills when he attempted three passes all game. Smart people know when they are living a lie, and I think Bill Belichick is smart enough to know that this style of play might make you competitive for playoff spots, but you simply cannot win a Super Bowl with this playing style. To compound the problem, Brady could win a Super Bowl with this crop of receivers, but Mac Jones can’t.

    Enter Treylon Burks. Burks is a big-bodied receiver that is able to control and position himself within the catching position. He has solid hands and makes contested catches. In Arkansas, he was misused and played a lot of slot where he doesn’t exactly fit at in the NFL level. The problem with Burks is that he really isn’t a speed guy and lacks that burst off the line. Much of his success in the NFL will be whether or not he will continue to be able to use his frame to get open.

    B+

    22. Green Bay Packers – Christian Watson, WR North Dakota St.

    The Aaron Rodgers saga was the talk of the summer. Ultimately, he chose to grace the Packers with his return, but Davante Adams had plans of his own. Currently, the Packers have a bottom five receiving unit and desperately need to get better.

    Christian Watson is another guy to watch on draft night. I have a feeling that he could wind up going much earlier than expected. Watson is a big framed WR that has true speed off the ball. I remember watching his film and not believing what I was seeing. He moves in and out of his breaks like a smaller more compact receiver, but he is a big guy. Similar to the Ohio State boys, he found himself “college open” a lot. I really want to see if he has or can develop a physical component to his game. The knock is that he is more difficult to evaluate because he played against weaker competition. He did also drop some passes that needed to be caught, and he needs to work on consistency.

    A

    23. Arizona Cardinals – Andrew Booth Jr., CB Clemson

    There is trouble in paradise in the desert. Kyler Murray is unhappy, and Kliff Kingsbury is learning that part of building a successful offense is seeing people get paid to leave. Because of this, Arizona has plenty of holes.

    At the end of the day, they probably would agree that their most glaring problem is at corner, and Andrew Booth is on the board. Booth is a decent prospect that involves himself in the run and has a certain level of physicalness to his game. He played a lot of zone coverage and tended to play off of his receiver a bit much for my liking. I would like to see him use his strength and toughness to press his man. I think Arizona could have filled holes with greater talent at this position.

    C+

    24. Dallas Cowboys – Kenyon Green, G Texas A&M

    Dak finally got his wish and got paid. For the first time since he entered the league, the Cowboys are no longer adding talent but subtracting talent. The Dak Prescott led Cowboys were initially constructed in the trenches. Look for the Cowboys to begin to replenish this unit in order to attempt to maintain their offensive success.

    Kenyon Green is a guy I expect front offices to like. He played all over the line at A&M and his best film came at LT vs Alabama. I truly believe that is the film that gets him drafted in the first round. He loves to block and take on defenders. He has a squattier build and might not be suited for zone schemes. He is at his best while engaged with defenders.

    A-

    25. Buffalo Bills – Zion Johnson, G Boston College

    The Bills are a really well-built team, and do not have a lot of glaring needs. I suspect that the Bills will target someone that they can get onto the field immediately in a starting position.

    Johnson is the type of player that the Bills will love having in cold weather games. Johnson has a massive frame and plays with power. You can see that he is an intelligent player who is well coached. He does have heavier legs and lacks speed and quickness. He may be capped out in terms of development.

    B+

    26. Tennessee Titans – Daxton Hill, S/CB Michigan

    The Titans are another well-constructed team that has briefly tasted success in the last few years. That being said, the taste of success has been brief with disappointing results in the playoffs. The Titans know one thing with certainty: they will face an aerial attack in the playoffs.

    Daxton Hill is going to be a great addition for a team in the first round. Hill’s greatest strength is his versatility. He can play safety and some teams may even view him more as a full-time corner. Because of this, teams are almost assured a day 1 starter. Hill has sub 4.4 speed and has fluid hips. He has a remarkable burst when moving toward a passer. He needs to work to be a greater defender on jump balls.

    B+

    27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devonte Wyatt, DT Georgia

    Tampa is yet another team without a glaring need. I think that the Bucs know that they cannot keep coming back to Suh, and Wyatt could offer a more permanent solution.

    Wyatt seems to be a value guy that will go at the end of the first round. He has a good, not great frame and has above average strength. He will give you better than average pass rush from the interior. He lacks freakish attributes that you would like to see in the first round.

    C+

    28. Green Bay Packers – David Ojabo, EDGE Michigan

    If the Packers select Ojabo, Twitter might just melt down. This illustrates the problem with making it painfully obvious that the entire franchise is effectively about one person.

    For those in the know, David Ojabo tore his Achilles at the NFL combine, and he will be unable play at all this season. The pick is actually a pretty solid pick because winning teams seldom have the chance to get this kind of talent because they tend to draft late.

    Ojabo came to football late, has a small body of work, and is still a relatively raw talent. He made his way onto the field as a pass rush specialist, but certainly could grow into a solid player. He has a good size/speed ratio. One of the reasons that leads me to believe that Ojabo will succeed is that you can tell that he is well coached. He does have pass rush moves in his arsenal. I would like to see him win more of these battles.

    B+


    29. Kansas City Chiefs – Johan Dotson, WR Penn State

    The Chiefs have been absolutely decimated at WR and need to get Mahomes targets badly. Unfortunately, most of the boundary guys are off the board at this point.

    The Chiefs wind up getting the highly productive Dotson out of Penn State. Dotson uses his exceptional footwork to find spaces in the zone and get open. Andy Reid will like to see that Dotson excels when plays break down. Mahomes to Hill for 60 yards on broken plays is the reason Mahomes is paid so much.

    Dotson has the measurable more of a second rounder than a first, but need necessitated taking him early.

    30. Kansas City Chiefs – George Karlaftis, DE Purdue

    George Karlaftis is one of the players in the draft that I truly enjoyed watching, and I think he deserves to go much higher. Karlaftis is a strength guy but his lack of athleticism may be the reason that he slides down the draft board. He is a true 4-3 defensive end and probably will not be selected by teams running the 3-4.

    Karlaftis has reduced me to a draft day cliché. He is “a football player.” In all honesty, it is fitting. He just wins his battles, gets his body in position, and is active in the run-game. He is intelligent and able to understand play development and his role within a play.

    A+

    31. Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Linderbaum, C Iowa

    There is no universe (with perhaps exception being the one that we are currently living in) that Linderbaum should fall this far. Linderbaum has two things working against him: his position and his measurables. The first is the simplest to account for. Center just does not have the value that other positions have. The other problem is that Linderbaum does not have elite abilities.

    Let me tell you what he does have. He is intelligent and a blue-collar work ethic. He is incredibly smart and can see plays develop. The man can move, get up field, and hit defenders in the next level.

    Here is the great tragedy. I think Linderbaum would be at his best in a team that does a lot of zone running. The SF 49ers and the Miami Dolphins would be matches made in heaven, but neither of those teams have first round picks this year. There are even talks that he could fall out of the first round altogether.

    Grabbing him at the end of the first is a bona fide steal.

    A+

    32. Detroit Lions – Nakobe Dean, LB Georgia

    This is a very interesting spot in the draft especially for the Lions. Detroit has an extra first round pick, but it is the last pick in the draft. There is a sizeable difference between the last pick in the first round and the first pick in the second round. The difference is that by taking a player in the first round, teams get a fifth-year option on a guy. Teams can use that option to get an extended look before committing long term to a position like quarterback… Detroit probably needs to upgrade from Jared Goff, but I actually have faith that Detroit will not reach.

    Making the right decision proves to be fruitful because another stud falls because of position. Again, I just do not think that a lot of teams are looking to spend a first-round pick on a LB. Dean is a bit undersized but does offer great speed and range. He sort of plays like a running back. He hits holes on the offensive side of the ball and attacks. His size sometimes is problematic when he cannot disengage from blocks, and his instincts need to be more consistent.

    Where I see a ton of value is the fact that he is solid in coverage and can be left on the field during passing downs. Dean’s playmaking ability is something that teams covet, and if they can refine areas of his game, he could really wind up being a steal.

    A


    Big Board

    1. Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB Cincinnati

    2. Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE Michigan

    3. Ikem Ekwonu, LT NC State

    4. Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame

    5. Evan Neal, LT Alabama

    6. Jameson Williams, WR Alabama

    7. Devin Lloyd, LB Utah

    8. Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE Florida State

    9. Tyler Linderbaum, C Iowa

    10. George Karlfatis, DE Purdue

    Top Quarterbacks

    1. Sam Howell, UNC

    2. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

    3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss

    4. Malik Willis, Liberty

    5. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati


    Order in Which the QBs Will be Drafted

    1. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

    2. Malik Willis, Liberty

    3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss

    4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

    5. Sam Howell, UNC

    Two Most Overrated Players (True Value in Parenthesis)

    1. Malik Willis (2nd)

    2. Kenny Pickett (2nd)


    10 years from now, we will say the best player in the draft was Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB Cincinnati.

    10 years from now, we will say the biggest first round bust was Malik Willis, QB Liberty.


    I am a speculator by nature, and I always have an annual hidden, late round gem. For the first time ever, I am going to guarantee that this player will make a Pro Bowl. The award goes to Matt Araiza, P San Diego State.


    Odds & Ends

    We grow and evolve around these parts. A yearly warning is that evaluating Alabama players is difficult because the whole may be more valuable than the sum of its parts. I think we need to at least consider applying this to Georgia’s defense and Ohio State’s receiving unit.


    As a younger draft evaluator, I would look to see if any of my evaluations seemed “off” with the general consensus and adjust my board accordingly. Admittedly, I am “off” with this year’s quarterback consensus. I really do think that I am right though.

    I expect to see surprises. I wouldn’t be surprised if fewer QBs are selected in the first round than pundits are expecting. I also think that it there could be some wild cards and someone could get selected way earlier than expected. If a team is high on a QB not named Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis the best thing that they could possibly do is say nothing.


    Let’s take a look at “the other guys.”

    Sam Howell, QB UNC

    Early projections had him as the first pick in the draft, but as UNC underachieved, so went the value of Howell. I always wait until after the Super Bowl to start scouting, and usually by then, the emotions of the season dissipate.

    I get that you want to draft a QB coming off of a high note, but if this year’s class has taught us anything it is that you can’t always get what you want. Howell lost a ton of talent around him as many players went to the draft, and his production declined.

    Howell has a squattier frame and does release the ball too high. Howell is an athletic player and is good on the run. What impressed me the most about Howell which I do think translates to the NFL is that he is a rhythm passer. He can process information, go through projections, and get the ball out quickly better than anyone in this year’s draft. He has good arm strength and throws accurate passes. I really do think that he could develop into a starter.


    Matt Corral, QB Ole Miss

    Matt Corral loves football. Ironically, this is a double-edged sword. He plays hard and wants to win… And he also gets hurt a lot. I just don’t envision him being the type of player to adjust his play to a more “safer style.” Corral will pull the ball down and run, and being injury prone in college usually translates to the NFL. Corral has an arm and moxie. You can truly see his confidence in himself on the field. Playing in the SEC has forced him to throw the ball in the tightest of windows that other QBs in the class simply do not do. He has a strong arm and a very quick release which translates to the NFL. He lives in the intermediate and does need to work on his deep ball accuracy.


    Desmond Ridder, QB Cincinnati

    Ridder is a guy that pundits are saying might sneak into the first round. Honestly, I do not see where this is coming from. He is athletic, but I really do not see a lot in passing talent beyond that.

    Chris Simms is one of the few analysists who truly speaks his mind. Simms rated Alec Pierce in his top five receivers. He made a point that resonated with me is that the reason Pierce is probably not going to go in the first round is his lack of production. Simms said to watch his film again and just look how many times he gets open and Ridder doesn’t pass him the ball. It was astounding. Simms said that he walked away thinking more highly of Pierce and thinking less of Ridder. Honestly, he is right. Pierce is a big target, is fast, and gets open. But passes don’t fly in his direction.

    Hitting the open guy is a fairly basic skillset that a potential first round pick has not mastered.
     

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