Monstblitz' Tannehill Thread Callback (Early Stat Predictions)

32 TDS 14 INTS 4050 yards. Mine is just a wild guess not nearly scientific like yours.

 

Last season, if I'm not mistaken, 8/10 starting QBs with a 95+ passer rating made the playoffs...if he gets to a 95 rating and if our defense can get better than last season's, I think it's pretty safe to say we'll be in the playoffs.

And it is not far-fetched to say he'll get at least to a 95 rating based on his yearly progression, better OL and new weapons that fit both the scheme and Tannehill's strengths better. So, yes, I'm predicting playoffs.

 

Thanks for saving me the work this year Bpk! Glad someone was enjoying those threads.

I think your projections are pretty spot on. Not sure I agree with everyone who says Tannehill will have 30+ TDs this year. I think they are forgetting Wallace accounted for 10 of those TDs last year. That production will be hard to replace, and I have nowhere near the faith that most everyone else on this board has in the ability of Kenny Stills to replace a significant portion of Wallace's production. I hope to be wrong, but I think he will be a huge disappointment for this team. I'd love to come back here and eat my words if I'm wrong. So to me, I agree his efficiency should go up with another year in the system. I think the TD production will depend on how quickly and how big of an impact Parker can make. Jordan Cameron is he's healthy might also be able to replace some of that lost TD production. Not sure how much gas Jennings has left in the tank but hopefully he can help too. It's nowhere near the mess the team was in after parting ways with Brandon Marshall, and at least they have addressed the hole left by Wallace so we will see.

 

I think his numbers go up at a steady rate, much like over the past two years, generally. But even though I think this Offense will have the pieces to FAR outpace recent years' performances, I also think a lot of that will be the run game, more-so than the passing. If the Defense is as nasty as I believe it will be, we won't need to throw-throw-throw. I think RTs efficiency numbers go up nicely, while overall totals for measurables like TDs, INTs, Yards, slightly increase.

 

Just spitballing - nothing deeply thought out or studied, but I'd say my expectations would be for RT's yards to go slightly up, and TDs to go up by 3-5, while the INT% stays about the same and completion % goes up a tad.

4150 yards
31 TD
12 INT
68% comp
98 rating

(I'm much more optomistic that Cameron stays healthy and produces)

 

I think this isn't as big of a problem as it sounds. It's not like Wallace was catching five yard passes and taking them 60 yards to the house. Many of his TD's came in the redzone. We'll have arguably better redzone targets this year.

 

Rec TDs 2014

Wallace 10
Landry 5
Clay 3
Hartline 2
Matthews 2
Sims 2
Miller 1
Williams 1
Gibson 1

So even if Landry remains around 5, the other top 3 WR from last year combined for 14. Can Parker, Stills and Jennings beat that if everyone stays healthy? I think so. Clay and Sims combine for 5. Can Cameron and Sims beat that? I think that they can double it. We also had how many TDs dropped last year? Seemed like an unusually high number.

 

Those ten TDs are going to be distributed among the the rest of the receivers, with Cameron getting the bulk of them, IMO. I think Cameron is going to be a Grimes-like FA acquisition this season, a guy with injury concerns who comes back and has a huge year.

 

Im gonna go....

4500 Yards

I am going to go 35 Tds. And here's why:

Last season I believe the Dolphins were at or near the top in Red Zone Opportunities. But they were at or near the bottom in Red Zone TDs. Last season we really had no legit red zone target. We got down to the red zone better then almost everyone else in the league, we just could not convert. Some of that is no red zone, and I think some of that is getting up to speed on the offense. Smaller windows...you have to execute better.

So...2nd year in Lazor's offense will produce better execution, especially in the red zone. We also now have 2 legit Red Zone Targets.


so....4500 yards

35 Tds...

17 Ints...

and...a whopping

7.3 YPA....

Tanny is gonna hit him some deep balls this season....better line protection, more time to let things develop down field! His INTs will uptick some, but I think that will be a result of him being more aggresive then anything.


Oh...

Just remember where you read it first.

He makes Pro Bowl.


My Koolaid is better then yours!

 

I'd just like to see him crack a 100 QB Rating.

 

Combine the dropped td catches and the INTs that bounced off of receivers, and he likely would have last year.

 

Here are my guesses for the passing game...

Tannehill 400/600, 4350 yards, 32 TD, 12 INT - 97.3 Passer Rating

Landry 100 rec, 1050 yards, 6 TD
Stills 65 rec, 900 yards, 4 TD
Jennings 45 rec, 600 yards, 6 TD
Parker 35 rec, 500 yards, 7 TD
Cameron 40 rec, 500 yards, 4 TD

 

I think his TDs go up, his INTs go up a little as well.
4300 yards, 33 TDs, 15 INTs, so very little change in the TD/INT ratio, but the overall impact of a better offense with several more passing TDs and more rushing TDs affords us a much better offense overall.

 

35 TD's and 4,200 yards, 65% competition.


The WR corps is light years ahead of last year. Parker and Cameron are Miami's first legit red zone threats since Tannehill was drafted. If Cameron is healthy, I wouldn't be shocked if he picks up where Wallace left off and has double digit TD's. Parker could very well be the most productive Rookie WR from this class given the QB, offense, and opportunity. I don't think 8 TD's is out of reach. Then you have Landry, who should at least replicate last year. And finally, Greg Jennings. Don't sleep on the Jennings signing, he has the ability to make plays in the short, intermediate, and deep passing game. He's a wildcard that can keep defenses off balance. What Stills will do is anyone's guess, so much depends on his chemistry with Tannehill.

 

Dolphins hate running the ball and Tannehill has a full year in this system. Yes he has new receivers, but I think he will be fine.

I am going to go closer to 4,800 yards.

 

Come here Pree I wanna kiss youuuu

 

I'm hoping his numbers are 12-4

 

You mean the team's numbers, right?

 

Or 11-5

 

i think its pretty strange to expect a player get injured from a team you are cheering for

 

Not really strange...maybe slightly on the negative side, but definitely a possibility...no team goes all year w/o injury.

 

that would be pretty disappointing numbers for parker, talking about catches and yardage, its like 2 catches a game

 

sure, but to think because cameron was dinged before he will get injured again is strange thinking, especially for a projection thread, because with this kind of thinking every player should stay the same from last year

 

I actually already said somewhere that I would not be surprised or disappointed to see a few more picks this year as long as he is pushing the ball down the field more and bumping up that ypa. More td's as well too.

 

Just a lot of mouths to feed IMO.

 

I get that, but your top 5 still ended up way short (115) of RT's completion number. I don't think that Sims and the RBs are getting that many, in all likelyhood. I would tack about 20 minimum, onto both Parker and Cameron.

 

I disagree. RBs will get a combined 60+ receptions IMO. Sims should be good for 20-25 receptions.

 

I expect Parker to have more than 2 catches a game. What are we thinking the starting 3 are? Parker/Landry/Jennings? Parker/Jennings/Stills? Jennings/Landry/Stills?

 

I also think that if Parker, Stills and Cameron all play to their abilities, Landry could also see fewer targets. Not from a lack of ability, but simply because there are other viable options.

 

I think he will be used in red zone and 4 WR sets his first season. I think the three starters will be Landry, Stills, and Jennngs.

Just my guess in the offseason, my mind could change by August.

 

I think he has his work cut out for him breaking in against these three, but also hard to see them sitting their #1 pick. Has to earn it though.

 

I think that you have to play your #1 pick. You have to get him involved early, and hope his physical traits allow him to be somewhat successful while he adapts to the pro game. He's only going to learn by playing in actual games.

 

What's the most impactful position in football? I get the narritave you will follow it up with but really its a one word answer.

 

i'll go with similar numbers to 2014. we didnt fix our biggest need this offseason, the offensive line, so i see the same problems as last year. i do think we'll probably be a bit better inside the red zone however due to the WR/ TE additions, so increase the TDs by 5

 

It doesn't matter. Wins are a team stat.

 

The line has had enough talent to play at an average level IMO. The QB needs to do a better job with protection calls, the OL needs to communicate better, and the WRs need to making catches down field. I think the addition of Stills will help, and hopefully the first two issues improve as well.

 

I'll throw it in here, too, since people seem to be glossing over how bad the line really was...when teams could rush four, and get pressure from multiple areas, in under 4 seconds, heck, under 3 seconds sometimes, I find it hard to place any blame, anywhere but on the line itself. It wasn't that Tannehill wasn't reading blitzes, and was therefore not calling protections. It was simple four man rushes acting like we didn't have an oline out there.