MortReport (Chris Mortenson) on Miami's interest (or lack of) in Vince Young

CK, I fully expect bulletpoint #3 to be more or less how we win football games in 2011, for my pov improving his passer rating vs losing 400 yds rushing from the Qb slot is a poor trade off, chances are excellent they simply played Zone and let him check down to Wr's as long as he did not take off with the ball they were happy as they knew once the field shrinks and throwing lanes disappear if he won't run then they just give up a FG.

 

Doubt it.

 

Sorry CK, I'm just not buying your "significant snaps" method. First, why are you only looking at the last 3 years? I think that would be selection bias right there, no? You conveniently started your sample in 2008--the year Collins went 13-3 with a team Vince didn't get to play with. That right there makes your entire statistic worthless. The year before, Vince was 10-6. The year before that Vince was 8-5 while Collins was 0-3. You have to go all the way back to '06 if you want the real picture.
Another problem--you aren't considering the circumstances of the games. Like the SL game you bolded, Vince started, and the Titans were up by over 14 when he pulled a hammy (he had a TD and a perfect QB rating at the time). Collins game in, but the game never got close. Of course they were never going to put VY back in when it was a blowout..but Vince had already built up a big lead, and then CJ was more than capable of taking over. So why would that not count as a win for Vince? And I'm guessing you did count it as a win for Collins.. Yeah, because he did a great job handing off to CJ with a 2-TD lead.
Again, your numbers are the only ones i have ever heard/seen that don't have Vince as a clear winner over Collins. If you look at games started (IMO the best way), it's not even close.

On the 47%, if you had the best RB in the league, how much would you throw? If you're a coach that hates your QB, how much would you throw? And just because threw that little, does that make it the right decision? I don't remember the Titans winning any Super Bowls throwing only 47% of the time with Vince. Again, you're getting right back into an argument that revolves around Jeff Fisher, who everyone know hated Vince and wanted him out. So yes, I will concede that Fisher did not want Vince throwing much, but that has much more to do with his feeling towards Vince than Vince's abilities.

Vince had a QB rating over 90 in all but 2 games last year--Pitt (he sucked but that happens vs the steelers, and he didnt get to finish) and Miami (when he came in for Collins with the team losing, and threw a pick on a hail mary). Those games also account for the only INTs he threw all year. Henne only had 4 90+ QB rating games ALL last season, so no, you can't find a stretch where he did that well. And again, you never watched Vince did you? I don't understand how people can say he sucks without having watched him, then finagle some stats to fit their argument, and think they're right. I'll say it again--last year (and to a lesser extent 09), Vince was making throws he could/would never make in 06/07. Tucking balls in between defenders, showing perfect combinations of touch+speed, reading the entire field, looking guys off, and making the right plays. Sideline throws, over the middle, deep, short, it didn't matter. And he wasn't just checking down either--as that PFF article shows, he threw more deep balls than anyone, and had the best completion % on them. In short, if you had watched the games, you would know that--these weren't lucky throws where defenders would slip or something. These were consistent, and without INTs mixed in. There is no way for you to prove "sample error" there, and in fact, the evidence suggests otherwise, so this is pure speculation (or hope) on your part.